NCLH Stock Price

[bmwman]

18 minutes ago, Kirchoff91 said:

I just purchased some shares, does anyone think it's going to go down anymore

Oh dear - no one can answer that by I would say with no revenue and a very tarnished reputation  you have a long time to see any sensible return - if it  does not go bust!!

 

I have made money last week but I will not gamble on a company with no revenue again !!

[ColeThornton]

22 minutes ago, Kirchoff91 said:

I just purchased some shares, does anyone think it's going to go down anymore

 

Anyone who would answer that right now, including myself, would just be guessing.  It closed at $8.40 today and last month had a 52 week low just above 7 bucks.   Folks are flipping coins right now trying to figure out if bankruptcy is in the future.  If that happens, well.........

[ziggyuk]

25 minutes ago, Kirchoff91 said:

I just purchased some shares, does anyone think it's going to go down anymore

 

They were 7.7 two weeks ago so no reason why they won't, I had a limit set at 8.0 so it just missed firing this afternoon, but I won't buy above 8.0 as that's what I bought the last block for.

I misjudged the last rise, never expected them to go to 16.9 but if the market was easy.........

Edited April 2, 2020 by ziggyuk

[manorf]

They CANNOT get any more cash in. If I book a cruise today or deposit on a future cruise - then Mastercard / Visa / Amex will not pass my funds to NCL. They will hold it until the 'service is provided' as consumers in the UK will simply 'chargeback'. I assume that the US experience is similar. So, they do not have ANY current cashflow in and massive cashflow out for refunds / chargebacks, etc. I wish I was wrong - I love NCL ships, have sailed for 20+ years - but the game is up.

[Kirchoff91]

Obviously, I am taking a gamble. I don't think NCL will file 

[Newleno]

3 minutes ago, Kirchoff91 said:

Obviously, I am taking a gamble. I don't think NCL will file 

At this point I dont think it is a question of will they file, I think it is a question of when they will file, I think the only thing that remains is will they file chapter 11 or chapter 7.  Just dont see any dip financing opportunities with a business model with zero revenue.

[cksv]

2 hours ago, Newleno said:

At this point I dont think it is a question of will they file, I think it is a question of when they will file, I think the only thing that remains is will they file chapter 11 or chapter 7.  Just dont see any dip financing opportunities with a business model with zero revenue.

 

For all of you who are saying NCL can't raise any money and is doomed, I suggest you look to Carnival. They just raised 4 billion through a bond offering yesterday, and investors were offering up to 17 billion! The only way NCL is going bankrupt is if the corona virus keeps their ships anchored past this year.

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/01/carnival-boosts-its-bond-offering-after-a-red-hot.aspx

Edited April 3, 2020 by cksv

[Kirchoff91]

35 minutes ago, cksv said:

 

For all of you who are saying NCL can't raise any money and is doomed, I suggest you look to Carnival. They just raised 4 billion through a bond offering yesterday, and investors were offering up to 17 billion! The only way NCL is going bankrupt is if the corona virus keeps their ships anchored past this year.

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/01/carnival-boosts-its-bond-offering-after-a-red-hot.aspx

They can easily raise the money. I don't think it's a question of that I think many other things factor In. 4 Billion at 12 percent interest rate is nuts

[cksv]

1 hour ago, Kirchoff91 said:

They can easily raise the money. I don't think it's a question of that I think many other things factor In. 4 Billion at 12 percent interest rate is nuts

It is! I think they acted pretty desperate and could have gotten a lower rate. Oh well, they should be able to pay it off pretty quickly once they’re back in operation. No more dividends or buybacks so they’ll have lots of free cash flow to pay down debt.

[fstuff1]

2 hours ago, cksv said:

 

For all of you who are saying NCL can't raise any money and is doomed, I suggest you look to Carnival. They just raised 4 billion through a bond offering yesterday, and investors were offering up to 17 billion! The only way NCL is going bankrupt is if the corona virus keeps their ships anchored past this year.

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/01/carnival-boosts-its-bond-offering-after-a-red-hot.aspx

they diluted shareholder value with creating more stock to sell out of thin air.

and there's nothing the shareholder can do about it but take it. 😞

their stock dropped to $8/share!

 

so yeah, ncl can raise cash the same way but the shareholder gets shafted.

Edited April 3, 2020 by fstuff1

[Comi.uy]

11 minutes ago, fstuff1 said:

they diluted shareholder value with creating more stock to sell out of thin air.

and there's nothing the shareholder can do about it but take it. 😞

their stock dropped to $8/share!

 

so yeah, ncl can raise cash the same way but the shareholder gets shafted.

Its worse for any shareholder anyway if NCL goes bankrupt...

[fstuff1]

11 minutes ago, Comi.uy said:

Its worse for any shareholder anyway if NCL goes bankrupt...

 

didnt know companies can create new shares AND not compensate current shareholders for the dilution.

 

[Ptroxx]

50 minutes ago, cksv said:

It is! I think they acted pretty desperate and could have gotten a lower rate. Oh well, they should be able to pay it off pretty quickly once they’re back in operation. No more dividends or buybacks so they’ll have lots of free cash flow to pay down debt.

Yeah but when will they Actually get back to operating.   That’s the big question.  
how many months can they handle not in operation.  

Edited April 3, 2020 by Ptroxx

[gtaylor]

1 hour ago, cksv said:

It is! I think they acted pretty desperate and could have gotten a lower rate. Oh well, they should be able to pay it off pretty quickly once they’re back in operation. No more dividends or buybacks so they’ll have lots of free cash flow to pay down debt.

 

They don't pay a dividend.

 

gary

[cksv]

1 hour ago, gtaylor said:

They don't pay a dividend.

 

gary

That's true... I must have been thinking CCL and RCL.

 

1 hour ago, Ptroxx said:

Yeah but when will they Actually get back to operating.   That’s the big question.  
how many months can they handle not in operation.  

I've read a year mentioned for Carnival based on their latest round of funding. NCL drew around 1.5B from their credit line with JP Morgan Chase a couple weeks ago and I imagine that will last them anywhere from 3-6 months. I think they'll likely do a bond offering like Carnival, or get another credit line from a bank like Royal, and I think that's already expected and priced in where the stock is today.

Edited April 3, 2020 by cksv

[Trimone]

Say they resume sailing in January 2021, will customers have confidence without a vaccine available? 
NCL need a bailout 

[mianmike]

1 hour ago, Trimone said:

Say they resume sailing in January 2021, will customers have confidence without a vaccine available? 
NCL need a bailout 

 

Hopefully scientists come out with a reliable coronavirus antibody test and it's provided to anyone who wants one.  I've heard a rapid test may be in development.  It's a strip test where just a drop of blood would be sufficient. It sounds like it wouldn't take terribly long to ramp up production and hopefully the U.S. would expedite approval.  Assuming it works it should be ready way before a vaccine.  It would be great if anyone who takes the test and has sufficient coronavirus antibodies would be given a Coronavirus "Passport".  They would be allowed to go to work or travel and go back to a normal life.   I've read other countries are looking to do this.  Given many people who have never had symptoms may have been infected, it would be great to know your coronavirus status.  I'm fantasizing the "cold" I had last month was actually the coronavirus and I'm now immune. 🙏  

[ziggyuk]

21 minutes ago, mianmike said:

 

Hopefully scientists come out with a reliable coronavirus antibody test and it's provided to anyone who wants one.  I've heard a rapid test may be in development.  It's a strip test where just a drop of blood would be sufficient. It sounds like it wouldn't take terribly long to ramp up production and hopefully the U.S. would expedite approval.  Assuming it works it should be ready way before a vaccine.  It would be great if anyone who takes the test and has sufficient coronavirus antibodies would be given a Coronavirus "Passport".  They would be allowed to go to work or travel and go back to a normal life.   I've read other countries are looking to do this.  Given many people who have never had symptoms may have been infected, it would be great to know your coronavirus status.  I'm fantasizing the "cold" I had last month was actually the coronavirus and I'm now immune. 🙏  

 

Yes, our government have tested a number of rapid antibody tests but none have so far proved reliable enough, as they say "no test is better than an unreliable test.". They are also looking at a passport system which will allow people who are immune to return to work while those who have not remain in safety.

The big issue is that nobody yet knows how long the immunity will last, if it's like chickenpox or measles and offers long term immunity or like the flu and only offers short term immunity.

[pghflyer]

NCL pays no dividend and doesn't have the debt on new ships in the pipeline like the others....but they are smaller and still cash flow issues if things drag too long.....and unknown future demand even if things don't drag on too long....clearly there is still market for debt as Carnival demonstrated....risk of shareholder dilution......IMO bankruptcy discussion (hopefully CH 11 reorg not CH7 liquidate) is still premature at this point, but if you are reading this thread considering investing you are already aware that you are putting your money (hopefully disposable) into a highly volatile small-cap stock facing an unprecedented danger on their business model.....so it will be a bumpy ride.  This is a pretty good article on the cruise line's respective debt (which really drives bankruptcy): https://seekingalpha.com/article/4333486-liquidity-and-leverage-comparisons-for-cruise-lines-amid-covidminus-19-chaos

 

Disclosure: I currently own shares with an average cost of about $19, so definitely feeling short term pain, but still holding on. 

[Cruising Chuck]

1 hour ago, pghflyer said:

 

 

Disclosure: I currently own shares with an average cost of about $19, so definitely feeling short term pain, but still holding on. 

I am also at the $19 average after I bought enough to get me to the 100 share mark.  Lets keep hoping and praying...LOL.  Time will tell, and if we ever hit the 55ish mark, I'm up 4K with 100 OBC every cruise.  works for me.

Edited April 3, 2020 by Cruising Chuck
typos.

[disneykins]

Just bought this morning. 100 shares so I can get the obc when they start cruising again. If they go bankrupt, I'll lose under $1,000,  I can live with that risk. I also have 7 Cruise Next certificates, I can live with that loss too. I'm in a similar situation with Carnival. I don't want to live in a world where I cant cruise anymore, lol.

Like someone else posted, its a small cap stock in a risky environment, don't use money you need. If I had a million bucks would I put it in one of these stocks---not a chance. But I would put it in the stock market, any of the big tech companies, or other good quality companies. The economy is coming back. One day. If it doesn't, losing a few thousand bucks is the least of my worries.

[jcollin]

I agree with others and want to get my 100 shares as well.  Just bought 100 @8.23 a share.  I'm watching and hoping that we can go at Christmas.  Current prices are too high right now but i can wait another month or more.

[Chesneygirl]

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b1939020-b716-3ab0-94fc-7eee0670c29d/time-running-out-for-cruise.html

[bmwman]

On 4/2/2020 at 10:26 PM, manorf said:

They CANNOT get any more cash in. If I book a cruise today or deposit on a future cruise - then Mastercard / Visa / Amex will not pass my funds to NCL. They will hold it until the 'service is provided' as consumers in the UK will simply 'chargeback'. I assume that the US experience is similar. So, they do not have ANY current cashflow in and massive cashflow out for refunds / chargebacks, etc. I wish I was wrong - I love NCL ships, have sailed for 20+ years - but the game is up.

at long last the very best comment about chargebacks - well said NCL are getting no cash flow Credit card companies were /are getting twitchy

[fstuff1]

1 hour ago, Chesneygirl said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b1939020-b716-3ab0-94fc-7eee0670c29d/time-running-out-for-cruise.html

 

ncl isnt going to survive if they dont lower their prices.

for those with FCC, ncl already has our $ so no new cash flow.

to get new cash flow, they need new customers.

 

not many non-fcc people are going to book at those inflated prices