Yikes! Over age 70 passengers need doctor’s note (Merged threads)

[az_tchr]

On 3/19/2020 at 10:09 AM, markeb said:

Well, the latest report from the CDC shows that something like 40% of the hospital admissions in the US are age 20-54. That doesn't yet appear to be adjusted for the size of that group in the population versus the over 70, but does show a significant requirement for medical resources, including ICU, for those younger than 70.

 

The case fatality rate is still highest over 70, but a cruise ship under those circumstances would need to be prepared for ICU with respiratory care in pretty much its entire shipboard population. And if that's the real concern, the over 70 thing may be interpreted differently when cruising resumes, or they'll have to hold off longer because they can't screen out their high risk population. I'm pretty sure they'd like to minimize the need for intensive care, and also minimize the likelihood of shipboard fatalities.

The rate of admissions of those 20 -50 or so is caused by stupidity and an attitude of invincibility.  People in the US - And probably elsewhere - have a significant percentage that do not follow directions.  For continuing to have social gatherings to the 20 something male who refused to remove his N95 mask at our bank (he was asked if sick/no asked to remove/no told the mask was not being used appropriately/profane reply) and was told to leave or he would be removed.

As for the original thread - how long until covid19 is GONE?  Completely gone!  Only then would it be responsible to resume cruises or cruising.  Another fiasco of covid would shut things for not weeks but many months.  If COVID is gone then the hastily put together letter (I'll conceived IMO) will go away as no need any longer.

Looking forward to cruising next year.

[Momma Rene]

I have a handicapped cabin for December. I wonder what will occur then or what are legal implications 

[Ride-The-Waves]

1 hour ago, gotcha3 said:

What is to stop me from signing the form myself?

 

Fraud.  And the cost of the ship stopping at an unscheduled port to send you ashore to a hospital.

[$hip$hape]

45 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Fraud.  And the cost of the ship stopping at an unscheduled port to send you ashore to a hospital.

Me thinks if one , with a serious illness left off at at a foreign port, would nowadays get much sympathetic response , much less, help.

Edited March 27, 2020 by $hip$hape

[Momma Rene]

What are they doing with all the people who booked handicapped cabins?  Obviously, those cabins would have pre existing conditions requiring the cabin.  

[davekathy]

3 minutes ago, Momma Rene said:

What are they doing with all the people who booked handicapped cabins?  Obviously, those cabins would have pre existing conditions requiring the cabin.  

Not necessary. Not everyone requiring a handicap accessible stateroom has underling healthy issues.  

[nich3cats]

If your are under 70 but have certain health conditions such as diabetes you will not be allowed to board. 

[Momma Rene]

22 minutes ago, nich3cats said:

If your are under 70 but have certain health conditions such as diabetes you will not be allowed to board. 

It is so crazy!  I know runners with severe diabetes!!!

[markeb]

27 minutes ago, Momma Rene said:

It is so crazy!  I know runners with severe diabetes!!!

 

Which may have absolutely no relevance to their susceptibility to COVID-19...

 

Am I the only one on this board who remembers Jim Fixx???? The running guru who died of a heart attack while running? Different circumstances and different risks, but...

[4774Papa]

9 hours ago, nich3cats said:

If your are under 70 but have certain health conditions such as diabetes you will not be allowed to board. 

This policy is probably good.  I do wonder where the line will be drawn by doctors.   I take medication for mild hypertension and cholesterol, but my doctor says that at 72, I am very healthy.

[farawayatsea]

No matter how fit you are the strength of your immune systems decreases rapidly from 65 onwards. Nothing you can do about this.

[Barcelona17]

I think as this discussion continues we each need to clarify what policy we are addressing. The policy regarding 70+ and COVID-19 is totally different than the policy requiring 70+ being required to obtain a doctor's note once COVID-19 is not an issue.

 

dcl

 

 

[TeeRick]

I am surprised at the longevity of this thread.  Once COVID-19 is history, I would bet the farm that the doctor's note requirement is removed.  It was an early control attempt superseded by suspension of worldwide cruise operations.  So let's wait to see how this all plays out whenever normalcy returns.  

[drakes2]

43 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

I am surprised at the longevity of this thread.  Once COVID-19 is history, I would bet the farm that the doctor's note requirement is removed.  It was an early control attempt superseded by suspension of worldwide cruise operations.  So let's wait to see how this all plays out whenever normalcy returns.  

I was told by my Celebrity VP and also 2 other agents I spoke with that it will be removed once we are free of Covid 19.

[babylene]

This is now a moot topic. No one at any age will be cruising before Coronavirus is history.

[shipgeeks]

Interesting statistics in our local paper today.  We live in the county with the second-highest % of elderly in the country.

Of the virus cases diagnosed here, by far the largest %, 46%, was in the 25-49 age group.  The 50-64 age group made up 26%.  The 65+ age group (or, as the university health studies state, 65-120 years old), only 14% of the total number of cases.

[az_tchr]

On 3/27/2020 at 3:26 PM, Ride-The-Waves said:

Fraud.  And the cost of the ship stopping at an unscheduled port to send you ashore to a hospital.

Had a friend helicoptered off Constellation.  Ship changed course for 4 hours to make possible.  Receive no bill from X or military.

This discussion is really not very helpful because X made an ill advised move with the letter and it will disappear once COVID is gone.  Otherwise it would lose some 1/3 of past cruisers.  Take a look at the percentage of those over 70 with any of the mentioned conditions.

Babylene is correct. No sailings until a week or two with no COVID anywhere in the World!

Edited March 29, 2020 by az_tchr

[Fouremco]

1 hour ago, shipgeeks said:

Interesting statistics in our local paper today.  We live in the county with the second-highest % of elderly in the country.

Of the virus cases diagnosed here, by far the largest %, 46%, was in the 25-49 age group.  The 50-64 age group made up 26%.  The 65+ age group (or, as the university health studies state, 65-120 years old), only 14% of the total number of cases.

The age brackets aren't identical, but the Canada-wide age distribution numbers are similar.

 

Figure 3. Age distribution of COVID-19 cases (n=2,708) in Canada as of March 28, 2020, 10 am EDT

[Ride-The-Waves]

Who cruises? Contrary to the old adage that vacations at sea mainly attract “the over fed and nearly dead,” that’s not the case.

 

The cruise industry has been working hard over the past two decades to change its demographics, attracting younger consumers. Research from Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) shows as of last year only 13% of customers for the $150 billion industry are over 70 years old.

 

Forbes 8 Mar 2020

[Fouremco]

Thanks, that was an interesting article. 

[markeb]

5 hours ago, Fouremco said:

The age brackets aren't identical, but the Canada-wide age distribution numbers are similar.

 

Figure 3. Age distribution of COVID-19 cases (n=2,708) in Canada as of March 28, 2020, 10 am EDT

 

I wonder how close that is to the age distribution in the population at large... 

[Fouremco]

54 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

I wonder how close that is to the age distribution in the population at large... 

Similar, with the biggest difference being with the ≦19 age group. The 20-29 year old group is the only other one for which the percentage of COVID-19 cases is less than the percentage of the population.

 

                     COVID-19  POPULATION

≦19                    4%              21%

20-29               12%             14%

30-39               17%             14%

40-49               17%             13%

50-59               19%             14%    

60-69               16%             12%

70-79                  9%               8%

80+                     5%               4%

 

[phoenix_dream]

2 hours ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Who cruises? Contrary to the old adage that vacations at sea mainly attract “the over fed and nearly dead,” that’s not the case.

 

The cruise industry has been working hard over the past two decades to change its demographics, attracting younger consumers. Research from Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) shows as of last year only 13% of customers for the $150 billion industry are over 70 years old.

 

Forbes 8 Mar 2020

That may be true of the industry overall, but it is certainly not true for Celebrity!  LLP has had some success in attracting some younger customers, but Celebrity still leans toward the older range.  I don't know what percent are over 70, but it is certainly more than 13% based on the 56 cruises I have sailed on Celebrity!  Some of the biggest cruise lines (Carnival and Royal Caribbean come to mind) have a significantly younger age group than Celebrity which helps keep the percentage lower.  

[markeb]

9 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

Similar, with the biggest difference being with the ≦19 age group. The 20-29 year old group is the only other one for which the percentage of COVID-19 cases is less than the percentage of the population.

 

                     COVID-19  POPULATION

≦19                    4%              21%

20-29               12%             14%

30-39               17%             14%

40-49               17%             13%

50-59               19%             14%    

60-69               16%             12%

70-79                  9%               8%

80+                     5%               4%

 

 

Not surprising. The 20-29 group difference is almost certainly not statistically significant. In fact, none of the differences may be significant.

 

For better or worse, other than the youngest group, the cases are normalizing across the population.

[bEwAbG]

10 hours ago, Barcelona17 said:

I think as this discussion continues we each need to clarify what policy we are addressing. The policy regarding 70+ and COVID-19 is totally different than the policy requiring 70+ being required to obtain a doctor's note once COVID-19 is not an issue.

 

The policy only exists because of COVID-19.  The question will really be whether or not there is a period of time in which cruise ships begin sailing before it is manageable via vaccine or treatment or it recedes altogether.  As long as there are enough cases to have to worry about an outbreak at sea, I don't think they'll be allowed to sail anywhere, with or without this policy in place.