Why isn't NCL cancelling due to coronavirus? Other cruise lines are.

[elwood_98034]

13 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

This mathematician and retired actuary says that the way the poster is using the statistics is bogus and shows no understanding of what they mean.

 

I have lots of friends and family members who are physicians or other health care professionals.  Most wouldn't understand the statistics either, which is typical of clinicians, as opposed to those who do scientific research . I do have an exception in my house though. My wife is a retired clinical psychologist who had a private practice for over 40 years. I can talk to her about it because she had a minor in mathematics as an undergraduate.

 

Please don't confuse competence in clinical practice with competence in statistics used in scientific study and research. 

I work in an ER in Seattle. I can look out the window, and except for a couple of trees and a small hill, see the hospital where 30 people died. My manager described where we work as Ground Zero for COVID-19 in the USA. Have you had a suspected COVID-19 patient huff in your face? I did. Last night.

[elwood_98034]

17 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

Personally, I never use the "ignore user" tab.  I just enjoy skewering the liars, phonies and BS artists too much. 

So do I. 

[njhorseman]

1 minute ago, fastpitchdad said:

 

Nope...see the post below. yours. They meant .7%.

Nope...they just repeated the error they made in the first post. If the first sentence in the second post was written "20 million deaths is 7% of roughly 285 million people" rather than ".7% of roughly 285 million people" it would be absolutely correct. And again, 7% is the approximate current death rate in Italy.

[fastpitchdad]

Just now, njhorseman said:

Nope...they just repeated the error they made in the first post. If the first sentence in the second post was written "20 million deaths is 7% of roughly 285 million people" rather than ".7% of roughly 285 million people" it would be absolutely correct. And again, 7% is the approximate current death rate in Italy.

 

No...he thinks the mortality rate is 0.7%. I have seen people claim that as the outside of china rate (ignoring italy as well I guess). That is why he mockingly used 3.4 as an example. 

[njhorseman]

7 minutes ago, elwood_98034 said:

I work in an ER in Seattle. I can look out the window, and except for a couple of trees and a small hill, see the hospital where 30 people died. My manager described where we work as Ground Zero for COVID-19 in the USA. Have you had a suspected COVID-19 patient huff in your face? I did. Last night.

What you're saying is totally irrelevant to my criticism of the numbers you're throwing around.

 

FWIW, the first person to die(and only death to date) from  Covid-19 in NJ was a friend of mine. Not the same as having a patient huffing in my face, but it certainly does hit me personally from an emotional perspective, even though I'm not at risk from a medical perspective.

[nolegal22]

So... mathematics and self-perceived

”skewering” aside.... how many should

be affected and/or die while you visit the buffet again?   

 

[elwood_98034]

3 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

Nope...they just repeated the error they made in the first post. If the first sentence in the second post was written "20 million deaths is 7% of roughly 285 million people" rather than ".7% of roughly 285 million people" it would be absolutely correct. And again, 7% is the approximate current death rate in Italy.

US population 327.2 million (2018)

Infection rate per Merkel 60%+

Fatality rate WHO v's Italy = 5% (est)

330,000,000x0.6x.05= 9,900,000

[goodml]

10 minutes ago, elwood_98034 said:

I work in an ER in Seattle. I can look out the window, and except for a couple of trees and a small hill, see the hospital where 30 people died. My manager described where we work as Ground Zero for COVID-19 in the USA. Have you had a suspected COVID-19 patient huff in your face? I did. Last night.

elwood thanks for being on the front line. As the mom of a young physician I understand fully what is going on and I am afraid for my son and all of you.  
 

It is incredible to see what social media has done to humans over the last decade. That someone would, from the armchair they’ve sat in nonstop for years shoving pompous opinions down the throats of everyone who has the misfortune to read here, ridicule someone who is in harms way on the front lines with first hand knowledge is simply astounding. He will be humbled some day.  It happens to everyone eventually; even the most arrogant.

[fastpitchdad]

1 minute ago, elwood_98034 said:

US population 327.2 million (2018)

Infection rate per Merkel 60%+

Fatality rate WHO v's Italy = 5% (est)

330,000,000x0.6x.05= 9,900,000

 

You weren't the one who had their math wrong. 

[njhorseman]

13 minutes ago, elwood_98034 said:

So do I. 

When you find one let me know. We can both go after them. 

 

Seriously, I appreciate your work, but you're really barking up the wrong tree in your use and interpretation of statistics.

[erdoran]

@njhorseman your credentials are?

[erdoran]

1 hour ago, njhorseman said:

Correct...which puts the expected death rate at about 1%, meaning the estimates the poster has been putting forth are way, way too high...5 or 6 times what the best information world health officials have would suggest.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

 You may find this a bit more solid data-wise.

[nolegal22]

Elwood... steer clear of the trolls

hired for below minimum

wage to defend the honor of something less

than honorable. Keep doing what you are doing. As someone with a “legal” mind, I am definitely taking notes 😉. 

[Comi.uy]

They are not cancelling so they can NOT give you your money back, its as simple as that. Thats why they recently took a loan, short on cash. Things for cruise lines are going to be complicated this year, wouldnt be surprised if one or many go bankrupt.

They should totally hold cruises off for a couple months, im surprised this wasnt a coordinated effort from all cruise lines...

[GA Dave]

Another Pandemic.  Do The Math With Today’s US Population

[elwood_98034]

22 minutes ago, goodml said:

elwood thanks for being on the front line. As the mom of a young physician I understand fully what is going on and I am afraid for my son and all of you.  
 

It is incredible to see what social media has done to humans over the last decade. That someone would, from the armchair they’ve sat in nonstop for years shoving pompous opinions down the throats of everyone who has the misfortune to read here, ridicule someone who is in harms way on the front lines with first hand knowledge is simply astounding. He will be humbled some day.  It happens to everyone eventually; even the most arrogant.

Thank you for your kind thoughts. It's OK. You can only try to guide people, you can't change them. I am fully resigned that this epidemic will take me. My wife knows it as well. We don't have good equipment at work, and the entire situation is chaotic. It is what it is. 

Edited March 13, 2020 by elwood_98034

[njhorseman]

17 minutes ago, erdoran said:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

 You may find this a bit more solid data-wise.

Yes, I'm familiar with the data cited.

 

The problem is how you measure the denominator in the case fatality rate calculation. Even for the seasonal flu you can get a mortality rate that ranges from 0.1% to 0.2% depending on how you count the number of cases.

 

The numerator is easy...the number of deaths.

 

We're going to have to let the pandemic run on quite a bit more to get a good grip on the data, but while that happens it's pretty clear that the death rate is likely nowhere near what some posters here are claiming.

Edited March 13, 2020 by njhorseman

[BoundForSea]

We're WAAAAY off topic here gang.  I get it, I myself am tired of listening to the dooms-day-ists telling me how I need to live my life, but based on the topic of the thread, we've departed the BA+ Race Track.

[njhorseman]

25 minutes ago, erdoran said:

@njhorseman your credentials are?

As stated in an earlier post I'm mathematician and retired actuary.

 

I worked in both the life insurance and property/casualty insurance actuarial fields. I discontinued doing technical actuarial work when my employer offered me promotions to take on some problem areas of the company so my last few years before taking an early retirement were spent in our insurance systems area and finally as head of strategic planning. 

 

Do you remember the old Gerber baby food trademark "Babies are our business... Our only business." ? I used to a variation of it to explain my work" Bad data is my business...My only business"

[Turtles06]

44 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

FWIW, the first person to die(and only death to date) from  Covid-19 in NJ was a friend of mine. Not the same as having a patient huffing in my face, but it certainly does hit me personally from an emotional perspective, even though I'm not at risk from a medical perspective.

 

Paul, I am very sorry for your loss.   

[njhorseman]

Just now, Turtles06 said:

 

Paul, I am very sorry for your loss.   

Judith

Thank you. Stay safe and healthy.

[CaffinatedSwan]

5 hours ago, Cruising Chuck said:

So have you quarantined yourself for the last 14 days?  What is your point?  You cant live your life in a bubble.  Jesus, I would imaginw right now Cruise Ships are probably cleaner than most hospitals.  Like I said, I hope you enjoy your future cruise, but MTFO and let us enjoy OUR cruise.  Stop fanning the flames of rumors, mystics and snake-oil salesmen.  What do you know that we don't?

  Jesus, I would imaginw right now Cruise Ships are probably cleaner than most hospitals. ....

 

Absolutely.  

[caterpa]

6 hours ago, sailthesea said:

Yes indeed. This is how coronavirus has exploded from a few isolated cases, to a pandemic - people who are "healthy and willing to take chances". The sick and elderly are royally screwed by that attitude. But, hey, have a great vacation and don't think about Grandma and Grandpa.

so I have been trying hard to stay out of this. But I am on the front lines in healthcare.  I am going cruising. 
 

The answer at this point, for your concern, isn’t to have young people afraid of the infection. What needs to happen is that the unhealthy, aged, need to isolate themselves. This virus is out there. We are past containment. In the next 2 weeks we will be in the mitigation phase and social distancing, as well as risk group isolation will be the norm. This is only to flatten the curve of cases. Soon 14 day quarantines will be a thing of the past as well. Just so you know. 
 

if you are old or sick, don’t go out. Simple. But To pretend the all experts have the exact same opinion is mistaken. 2 weeks ago the experts said that this was airborne. Now we know it is spread by respiratory droplets.    This is a fluid situation and to pretend that we all agree on this isn’t accurate. This is new. We just don’t know all yet. 
 

i honestly think that with all the screening going on to get on the cruise, it’s safer than the store.  I wouldn’t have said that 10 days ago but it’s probably true now. 
 

Like many, my only concern is not being allowed to return and dock in Miami at the end. 

[caterpa]

5 hours ago, elwood_98034 said:

If we go short on the Italian death and infection rate the USA is looking at around 20 million deaths. About the same as WW2 total. 40x US losses in Vietnam. This year. Washington and Oregon combined. +.  Plus a few more added in for giggles. One third of Cali. Manhattan x2. Like that. Have fun kids.

By the time this is over there will be less than 100k dead. Serious to be sure but not a lot worse than the yearly flu.   Just an educated guess but I have a feeling this is massively overdone.   
 

look at South Korea for more accurate mortality rates. The are the only ones that rolled out the testing rapidly. 
 

is it any surprise that, if we only test for COVID in the super  sick, that they have a high mortality?   That’s where testing is many places.   Known risk county, known close contact exposure to COVID and the super sick.  That’s all that are being tested in my state. For now. Once we test anyone that wants it, numbers will go WAY up but mortality way down. Proportionally. 

Edited March 13, 2020 by caterpa

[elwood_98034]

12 minutes ago, caterpa said:

By the time this is over there will be less than 100k dead. Serious to be sure but not a lot worse than the yearly flu.   Just an educated guess but I have a feeling this is massively overdone.   
 

look at South Korea for more accurate mortality rates. The are the only ones that rolled out the testing rapidly. 
 

is it any surprise that, if we only test for COVID in the super  sick, that they have a high mortality?   That’s where testing is many places.   Known risk county, known close contact exposure to COVID and the super sick.  That’s all that are being tested in my state. For now. Once we test anyone that wants it, numbers will go WAY up but mortality way down. Proportionally. 

It's only a cold.

 

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