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Will prices go lower?!

Msett89

By Msett89,
in Royal Caribbean International

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Msett89

Msett89

Posted
Posted

Hi all. Obviously a lot happening right now but I am really hoping things improve and I can sail on the Harmony of the Seas in May. Prices are the lowest I have seen but with how things are developing, do you think they will go lower?

 

Currently May 16th 7 night Harmony of the Seas cruise is down to $516 from $549 just yesterday. Should I jump on it or could prices further decrease? Obviously I know either way it's a gamble.

 

Thanks! 

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Blizzard54

Blizzard54

Posted
Posted

It is hard to say.  They will lower the prices to keep the ships full.  As long as they keep the over 70 needs a form in force that will limit who can cruise.  When the crisis settles down there will be a lot of people with FCC's to use so that could boost prices.

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maggieq

maggieq

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We were able to upgrade to an ocean view balcony vs a Central Park balcony for oasis 5/31.  Keeping fingers crossed we can still go but certainly understand if Rccl decides to push out the dates on not operating.  

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Cruzlover7

Cruzlover7

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Msett89 said:

Hi all. Obviously a lot happening right now but I am really hoping things improve and I can sail on the Harmony of the Seas in May. Prices are the lowest I have seen but with how things are developing, do you think they will go lower?

 

Currently May 16th 7 night Harmony of the Seas cruise is down to $516 from $549 just yesterday. Should I jump on it or could prices further decrease? Obviously I know either way it's a gamble.

 

Thanks! 

Do you mean May 17?  I’m currently booked on Harmony May 17 and hoping we still Sail.  Only time will tell. 

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firefly333

firefly333

Posted
Posted

Oddly enough may liberty cruises are up. We have new pax on our roll call whose cruise was cancelled so they rebooked ours. As people rebook, prices might also go up not down. 

 

Price was up early this morning and up about another 10 starting prices within the last hour.

 

All these people with new fcc some are going to be booking your cruise. Galveston may be the exception, but prices are up for may... I'm not watching fall.

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NJ&Ozzie

NJ&Ozzie

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We've only seen a price drop on one of our cruises so far.  November 2 Navigator.  I just called our TA this a.m. to get price adjusted.  After checking with RCL, agent says we would lose our obc, plus the tax/port fees have gone up with the re-pricing and now cruise would be non-refundable. 

 

This made the price drop not nearly as attractive.  In the past, when we've re-priced a cruise the tax/port fees always stay the same as the original booking & we keep our obc if the same obc is offered with re-pricing.  Not this time.  When I said this is what I expected, especially since RCL needs to keep business now, our agent said guess that's why they're doing this.  So we decided to leave cruise as refundable for now.

 

Anyone else have this experience?

NJ 

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HalfHand

HalfHand

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Posted

All just speculation, educated speculation because I've looked at a lot of mathematical models for this thing. Assuming none of the new drugs being tested right now pan out.

 

End of May is going to be the tipping point. 100's of millions of people are going to be infected. End of June a lot of people are still going to be sick, BUT herd immunity is going to be making a serious impact on the virus's ability to spread.

 

Ironically people are going to be more worried about travel then when it is really statistically safer than it is now. So June prices should be cheap and it will still be a risk but the odds are others you are cruising with have already had it so there will be plenty of safe space around you even if someone currently infected is on board.

 

The other side of that coin is, you get it, shake it off and are now immune. Enjoy your mostly free world travels (if you can get anywhere)

 

One other thing that can really play into the cost of cruising this year. Vacation time. Who is going to have any left? I think a two week to a month quarantine is in all of our futures. Once testing FINALLY ramps up and folks start seeing the real numbers there is going to be a bit of a panic. The horse is already going to be out of the barn at this point, but it will probably still be tried.

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HalfHand

HalfHand

Posted
Posted
Just now, Biker19 said:

The way things are going in China would suggest the numbers will be far lower.

 

It's too late. The numbers in the US are way way higher than you see right now. No testing has been done. The NBA has tested more people than most states. Ohio is speculating they have 100,000 already, Indiana 60,000.

 

We can't do what China did. Imagine just shutting down NY city. Nobody in, nobody out. How would you enforce it? In China, execution. Here? a fine?

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HalfHand

HalfHand

Posted
Posted
Just now, Biker19 said:

The testing that has been done shows at least 96% negative rate.

The death rate in the US shows 51%

 

If you are going to believe 96% you have to believe the 51%

 

Both numbers are insanely wrong. 330M in the US vs how many competed tests? No current number is accurate.

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HalfHand

HalfHand

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

No you don't, the 96% is actual testing, the death rate can vary wildly depending on how many you "think" had it.

I hope you are right, I really do.

 

Mathematicians, the CDC, and virologist is where I'm getting my info. 

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/487489-worst-case-coronavirus-models-show-massive-us-toll

 

 

Edited by HalfHand
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NJ&Ozzie

NJ&Ozzie

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Dennis#1 said:

Yes.  Last year we called RCCL customer service inquiring about a possible $220 price decrease on a cruise.  If we let them reprice, we would have lost $300 OBC

When I called our TA a month ago for last price drop, a manager explained to me that if the price drop has an obc attached to that price & you have one with your current pricing, then you should be keeping the obc when you ask for price drop. 

 

So I used that as my guide for figuring out what to expect when calling about future price drops.  Have things changed now?  I will try again calling another day - maybe it was just that RCL rep?

NJ 

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MoniMommy

MoniMommy

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, HalfHand said:

All just speculation, educated speculation because I've looked at a lot of mathematical models for this thing. Assuming none of the new drugs being tested right now pan out.

 

End of May is going to be the tipping point. 100's of millions of people are going to be infected. End of June a lot of people are still going to be sick, BUT herd immunity is going to be making a serious impact on the virus's ability to spread.

 

Ironically people are going to be more worried about travel then when it is really statistically safer than it is now. So June prices should be cheap and it will still be a risk but the odds are others you are cruising with have already had it so there will be plenty of safe space around you even if someone currently infected is on board.

 

The other side of that coin is, you get it, shake it off and are now immune. Enjoy your mostly free world travels (if you can get anywhere)

 

One other thing that can really play into the cost of cruising this year. Vacation time. Who is going to have any left? I think a two week to a month quarantine is in all of our futures. Once testing FINALLY ramps up and folks start seeing the real numbers there is going to be a bit of a panic. The horse is already going to be out of the barn at this point, but it will probably still be tried.

If you are right May cruised will be cs cancelled. Should have held out for a full refund rather than canceling now and taking 50% cruise credit?

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goldfish65

goldfish65

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, HalfHand said:

 

 

The other side of that coin is, you get it, shake it off and are now immune. Enjoy your mostly free world travels (if you can get anywhere)

 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-risk-of-reinfection-2020-2

 

Article says otherwise so I am not so sure about your statement.

 

 

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MoniMommy

MoniMommy

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, NJ&Ozzie said:

We've only seen a price drop on one of our cruises so far.  November 2 Navigator.  I just called our TA this a.m. to get price adjusted.  After checking with RCL, agent says we would lose our obc, plus the tax/port fees have gone up with the re-pricing and now cruise would be non-refundable. 

 

This made the price drop not nearly as attractive.  In the past, when we've re-priced a cruise the tax/port fees always stay the same as the original booking & we keep our obc if the same obc is offered with re-pricing.  Not this time.  When I said this is what I expected, especially since RCL needs to keep business now, our agent said guess that's why they're doing this.  So we decided to leave cruise as refundable for now.

 

Anyone else have this experience?

NJ 

When you do a mock booking to find price drops you have to go all the way to the end. After putting in name, birthday, etc you get to the screen where you can check refundable deposit. That's the price you look at. The price on all previous screens is with a nonrefundable deposit. With that said I got a $60 price drop on my September cruise.

Screenshot_20200314-103938_Chrome.jpg

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