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WonderMan3

Constellation and Infinity Revolution in jeopardy?

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So I wonder if the Revolution updates for Constellation and Infinity are in jeopardy at all due to potential shutdown if it continues beyond the current 30 day suspension? Constellation is supposed to go in late April I believe? We just saw the refurb on Royal's Explorer of the Seas get cancelled as it was supposed to happen over the next few weeks. I was wondering why it was cancelled seeing as the ship would be laid up anyway, but I wonder if they want to avoid having a ship under renovation and then the refurb crew suddenly bail due to virus concerns and then the ship not being ready to sail when the cruise suspension is over? It could be money of course but I imagine this close in that much of the costs related to the refurb are already paid for. Maybe Constellation will be pulled then from being refurbed if the suspension continues from April into May. If so then it begets the question as to when it will have the refurb done? I assume that Celebrity will not want to cancel any future cruises since they are bleeding money already so maybe Constellation update gets moved to April 2022?

 

Infinity is probably okay since its update isn't happening until October I think and hopefully this crisis will have diminished. Unless of course money is the issue and they might cancel that update too.

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Good question.  As everyone knows money is an issue.

we were looking forward to sailing on the Constellation in Nov. after refurb

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Timing wise, I think a cruise ship owner would want their ship to be in drydock for a refurb if the ship cannot be used for cruising.

 

As far as conserving cash is concerned, I think the $500 million Revolution makeover is 4/9ths completed.  So roughly half has already been spent.  Constellation (2020), Infinity (2020), Eclipse (2021), Solstice (2021) and Reflection (2023) remain.

 

On the other hand, the new EDGE ships are a billion dollars a piece.  I am sure they will be pushed back.  It all depends on long this goes on.

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My understanding was that since they had already cancelled the cruises for the next 2-3 weeks, that the constellation was going to go into drydock early. 

 

They as they left India on Thursday - They maybe "taking their time" getting to the drydock as so they can show that they've passed any quarantine period. While some countries have shut their ports to cruise traffic, I believe they haven't all shut to cargo. I'm not sure how the "dry dock" qualifies etc

 

I did see the post on the RCCL board that was from the mother of a crew member. I believe during dry dock many of the crew has "time off" - perhaps it is that time off that is being cancelled also,  from what I can see it is 3rd hand reporting and only a screen capture so it is hard to say all the details behind it.

 

I know that the airlines have announced they are deferring plane delivery from Airbus and Boeing, however in my opinion I think the cruise ships are slightly different as they already have the materials purchased / staged - one reason for the ship not going into dry dock maybe a logistics issue of supply of items vs a $$$ issue

 

We could speculate all day long. Until an official announcement from Celebrity comes out, I wouldn't worry to much about it as none of us have control over it and whatever it is , it is. 

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2 hours ago, pl281 said:

My understanding was that since they had already cancelled the cruises for the next 2-3 weeks, that the constellation was going to go into drydock early. 

 

They as they left India on Thursday - They maybe "taking their time" getting to the drydock as so they can show that they've passed any quarantine period. While some countries have shut their ports to cruise traffic, I believe they haven't all shut to cargo. I'm not sure how the "dry dock" qualifies etc

 

I did see the post on the RCCL board that was from the mother of a crew member. I believe during dry dock many of the crew has "time off" - perhaps it is that time off that is being cancelled also,  from what I can see it is 3rd hand reporting and only a screen capture so it is hard to say all the details behind it.

 

I know that the airlines have announced they are deferring plane delivery from Airbus and Boeing, however in my opinion I think the cruise ships are slightly different as they already have the materials purchased / staged - one reason for the ship not going into dry dock maybe a logistics issue of supply of items vs a $$$ issue

 

We could speculate all day long. Until an official announcement from Celebrity comes out, I wouldn't worry to much about it as none of us have control over it and whatever it is , it is. 

 

It just seems risky to me with this virus getting worse by the day. If they bring the ship into drydock into a location that suddenly goes on lock down midway through the project and then starts up again weeks later, they may not be ready to deploy the ship back into the fleet and have to cancel sailings. They can't risk cancelling any further departures on top of the ones cancelled for suspension of sailing. I feel like that may be the motivation behind cancelling Explorer's drydock renovation since as you say, the materials were already purchased and staged somewhere. They can always keep holding onto that stuff and use it later on when the renovation actually happens, but they cannot recover revenue from a cancelled sailing.

 

Anyway, it sounds like Spain is going into lockdown so if Constellation was being planned for drydock early that could be off the table now (they go to Cadiz, right?).

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2 hours ago, mahdnc said:

Timing wise, I think a cruise ship owner would want their ship to be in drydock for a refurb if the ship cannot be used for cruising.

 

As far as conserving cash is concerned, I think the $500 million Revolution makeover is 4/9ths completed.  So roughly half has already been spent.  Constellation (2020), Infinity (2020), Eclipse (2021), Solstice (2021) and Reflection (2023) remain.

 

On the other hand, the new EDGE ships are a billion dollars a piece.  I am sure they will be pushed back.  It all depends on long this goes on.

 

Beyond will likely be delayed as the virus is starting to impact France heavily now. And yes, it seems like a sure bet that they will move out the other two ships or possibly even cancel one or both of them as this shutdown is going to be such a huge hit to the company. The suspension of cruising is only the beginning. I think there will still be maybe 6 months to a year of lag time in getting cruise bookings back up to speed. The diehards will come back quickly, but the casual and first time cruiser pool may shrink dramatically with so many in the media shouting out how cruise lines are bad and should go away. Bill Maher had a whole rant about them last night. Cruising will have a horrible image problem into the neat future unfortunately.

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Allure of the Seas dry dock was also canceled. I think it's a very likely scenario that Celebrity will make similar decisions.

 

Cash is going to be tight and there's just no way to accurately predict what the next few months may bring. 

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If cash flows allow it there is no point to cancel the dry docks now, even if given the current circumstances the works will be delayed by weeks or even a month. It's easier to cancel cruises over the next months as even once the business will start to operate it will take time to get confidence back. Also don't forget these ships anyway need to go to dry dock now as their scheduld maintenance cycle is due, hence doing now a dry dock and just delaying the re entry is smarter and also more cost effective than planing a additional dry dock in a year or two only for the Amplification.

 

Although in good shape, Constellation is in need of a amplification same counts for the Exlorer an Allure at RCL, hence it will be interesting on how the matters will be handled. I would still hope for a delay which would result in a delayed start to the Europe Season by latest begining of July after which things hopefully have calmed down and gotten under control.

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I would guess that it is almost entirely about conserving cash flow which obviously just dried up for all of these cruise lines.  

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I guess there was already some upfront payment, I doubt that they would only need to pay for all the works at the end.

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I have been involved with many capital projects so here is my take.  Even for a short 30 day project like the drydock renovations,  there would be an upfront payment to the shipyard,  plus an initial cash outlay for all of the supplies, perhaps some milestone payments, and a final payment.  In other words cash spent continuously.  On the other side- the vendors and companies doing the work for Celebrity would be concerned for their workforce safety from exposure, and also would be concerned about initiating work with the risk of not being paid or having delayed payments.  The only thing Celebrity could do would be to use onboard staff that they are paying anyway on these idle ships to complete some less intensive projects.

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We are booked on Connie for Jan 2021, when we hope to use our future cruuse credit.  If she is sailing that cruise, we will enjoy her either way...(This was the bargain itin from TPA...we were able to book a suite!)

 

Plans  and schedules of the cruise line will unfold in due course.  They must be in near panic mode to   manage  cancelled cruise res,   food & supply vendors, port arrangments, staff issues. CEO on down will be earning their salaries...

 

I  wonder if they have a crisis mgmnt team and have ever practiced for something like this?

 

 things seem to be going better than one might expect  even with so many problematic situations

 

 

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15 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

I have been involved with many capital projects so here is my take.  Even for a short 30 day project like the drydock renovations,  there would be an upfront payment to the shipyard,  plus an initial cash outlay for all of the supplies, perhaps some milestone payments, and a final payment.  In other words cash spent continuously.  On the other side- the vendors and companies doing the work for Celebrity would be concerned for their workforce safety from exposure, and also would be concerned about initiating work with the risk of not being paid or having delayed payments.  The only thing Celebrity could do would be to use onboard staff that they are paying anyway on these idle ships to complete some less intensive projects.

 

In the case of Allure, Spain won't let the ship port there even for dry dock purposes. The decision was made for them.  They will just eat the cost of prepaid expenses since there is no other choice. I think this whole ordeal is going to effect the industry for years to come. I surely don't envy the people making decisions right now. 

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When they dry dock, a number of the regular crew are deployed to do dry dock related duties, even if just enhanced cleaning.  

I'm taking a wait and see attitude.  I'm booked on Connie for December 2020 out of Tampa, and looking forward to a refreshed ship.  My guess is they will find a way.  She needs some love as it is.

 

EQ is headed over to Freeport.  I'm hopeful they will find a way to finish a lot of the work that wasn't completed last year on her.

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