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OzKiwiJJ

Predict when cruising will start again post-Coronavirus

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14 minutes ago, By The Bay said:

I think the Wuhan football team would be better tested. I read today that they plan to test all 11 million residents. No mean task.

They might buy some barley and red meat to take home.

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22 minutes ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

Personally I'd rather see the cruise ship crews here than US troops or NRL players.

Cruise ship crews are probably more healthy and better educated in personal hygiene than NRL players. It would also do wonders for our economy if the government were to allow them in and have the company pay for a resort in our country to quarantine them in for three weeks just to make doubly sure. Its a win-win situation for all with the jobs to support the quarantine and income from it.

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9 minutes ago, Vader1111 said:

Australia has an agreement with the USA, which sees them permanently basing a battalion or so in the NT.  It's a long-standing arrangement.

 

Sure, but we also had a long standing arrangement with cruise ships visiting - and then changed all that because of the coronavirus restrictions. I doubt there's no override possible in this agreement. Defence forces get redeployed all the time.

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1 minute ago, Battleship02 said:

I think that is a bit of speculation and overstating the mark. I do not believe cruise ships are virus incubators as the media would have you believe. If everyone is healthy who boards them then no viruses would be on them. A football field is a bigger place to incubate viruses and even the stadium with all the crowds. I could argue that travel is a necessity. It provides mental stimulation and emotional support to some people in more and better ways than therapy and medication will provide. It destresses people and builds up their mood and improves their way of life. If anything international travel and cruise ship travel has its health benefits physically, mentally and intellectually. For some people a trip on a cruise ship could do more help than six months of anti-depressant medication. For the person stressed out at work a holiday is just the thing you need to brighten your mood. I think cruise ships do more benefits to society and I do not consider them a luxury if the life we lead can use them to our benefit.

You and I both love cruising... but when things go wrong, they really go wrong.  With everyone living in close proximity, for days on end, it only takes a small number of infected people to infect the whole ship.

 

The difference between a football crowd and a cruise ship, is that the footy crowd are only together for 2-3 hours, and most of the time you're only in "close contact" with those sitting around you.  In contrast, passengers are on a cruise ship for days or weeks (sometimes months), and are in close contact with people wherever they go.  You're in close contact with one set of people at dinner, another at the theatre, another in the pool, another doing trivia.  The scope for infection is far, far, higher on a cruise ship - even if the total number of people present is lower.

 

I love cruising.  It's a great way to have a relaxing holiday.  But it's not a necessity.  There are other ways to have a relaxing holiday, without getting on a great white petri dish.  Cruising is not, nor will it ever be, an "Essential" activity.

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1 minute ago, The_Big_M said:

 

Sure, but we also had a long standing arrangement with cruise ships visiting - and then changed all that because of the coronavirus restrictions. I doubt there's no override possible in this agreement. Defence forces get redeployed all the time.

Defence is an Essential industry.  Cruising is possibly the least essential industry - or it's in the conversation when trying to identify such an industry.

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4 minutes ago, Vader1111 said:

Defence is an Essential industry.  Cruising is possibly the least essential industry - or it's in the conversation when trying to identify such an industry.

 

It's not about the industry. Just because something is defence related doesn't automatically mean an exercise or activity is required.

 

And as you've surely heard, the PM is all about the economy coming back and minimising effects to it. If the return is deemed beneficial to the economy and can be done safely, it would be permitted. Is football essential?

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8 minutes ago, Battleship02 said:

I think that is a bit of speculation and overstating the mark. I do not believe cruise ships are virus incubators as the media would have you believe. If everyone is healthy who boards them then no viruses would be on them. 

The difference between a cruise ship and any land-based shopping centre, stadium, theatre, church, school, university, is that illnesses can be tracked and counted in the closed environment of a cruise ship. Statistics have shown that cruise ship transmission of illnesses like norovirus is around half of that in the general community ie less than 2% against 3% or more. Of course, coronavirus is more virulent than norovirus so those numbers would be considerably higher - as we can see from other countries.

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6 minutes ago, Vader1111 said:

You and I both love cruising... but when things go wrong, they really go wrong.  With everyone living in close proximity, for days on end, it only takes a small number of infected people to infect the whole ship.

 

The difference between a football crowd and a cruise ship, is that the footy crowd are only together for 2-3 hours, and most of the time you're only in "close contact" with those sitting around you.  In contrast, passengers are on a cruise ship for days or weeks (sometimes months), and are in close contact with people wherever they go.  You're in close contact with one set of people at dinner, another at the theatre, another in the pool, another doing trivia.  The scope for infection is far, far, higher on a cruise ship - even if the total number of people present is lower.

 

I love cruising.  It's a great way to have a relaxing holiday.  But it's not a necessity.  There are other ways to have a relaxing holiday, without getting on a great white petri dish.  Cruising is not, nor will it ever be, an "Essential" activity.

Its a tough call you know. As you know from cruise ships you can see one person one day and never see them again for the rest of the cruise or keep bumping into the same people on a daily basis. It is so random and with the amount of cleaning that goes on the risks are low.

 

One example I can think of is that I have been on some cruise ships for up to or longer than a month at any one time and have never got sick once. I can only think of three cruises off hand right now that I did actually get sick on. Namely once with coronavirus and the others bronchitis.

 

To put that in perspective I also went to a Bruce Springsteen live concert once held outdoors and got the worst cough and flu for the following two weeks.

 

You just don't know how things are going to go don't you?

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4 minutes ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

The difference between a cruise ship and any land-based shopping centre, stadium, theatre, church, school, university, is that illnesses can be tracked and counted in the closed environment of a cruise ship. Statistics have shown that cruise ship transmission of illnesses like norovirus is around half of that in the general community ie less than 2% against 3% or more. Of course, coronavirus is more virulent than norovirus so those numbers would be considerably higher - as we can see from other countries.

I have had norovirus before. I have caught it more times on land and probably from my local Woolworths than on a cruise ship. I am certain one time I caught it was in Woolworths was because the only place I was going that week was between my home and the shops.

 

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Years ago, well before I started cruising but when I was travelling a bit, I worked out that I got sick, usually a cold, after every third (one way) flight. 

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Apparently there was 2011 study done after Swine Flu that concluded cruise ships are a big problem for as spreading infectious disease and gave recommendations on how to deal with an infection situation (something they should have followed with Ruby Princess so they say). Either way the industry reputation is pretty trashed and while the government wants the economy to restart they also don't want to lose public votes. The industry will need a serious PR boost before the government will support their restarting🙄

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Battleship02 said:

Its a tough call you know. As you know from cruise ships you can see one person one day and never see them again for the rest of the cruise or keep bumping into the same people on a daily basis. It is so random and with the amount of cleaning that goes on the risks are low.

 

One example I can think of is that I have been on some cruise ships for up to or longer than a month at any one time and have never got sick once. I can only think of three cruises off hand right now that I did actually get sick on. Namely once with coronavirus and the others bronchitis.

 

To put that in perspective I also went to a Bruce Springsteen live concert once held outdoors and got the worst cough and flu for the following two weeks.

 

You just don't know how things are going to go don't you?

There's no doubt that hygiene standards are higher on cruise ships, compared to the general community.  How many times have we heard "washy, washy" whenever we enter the dining room, or reminders to wash our hands during the Captain's midday announcement?  How many times do we see the staff wiping down surfaces such as handrails and tables?  They know it's a high risk environment, and they really do go out of their way to minimise the health risks.

 

The Govt's standard for "close contact" is 15 minutes at 1.5m distance.  When you go to the theatre, that's a radius of 2 seats in any direction - including forwards & backwards - it's not just the family member sitting next to you.  Similarly, you don't just infect those on your own trivia team, you also infect players in the teams on either side of you.  If you go on a shore tour, it's 2 seats in every direction around you on the bus.  At dinner, you infect those on your table and those behind you, noting that lunch time seatings are far more random than dinner seatings.

 

With most Australian cruises being 7-14 days, there's plenty of time for the virus to incubate, resulting in secondary and tertiary infections.  Anyone you infect early in the cruise then starts infecting others by the second half of the cruise.  It's not totally random, in that people often sit in the same seats, but there's enough randomness involved (particularly when it comes to secondary and tertiary infections) for things to spread very widely and very quickly.

 

In contrast, the only "close contacts" at a football game are people in a 2-seat radius around the infected person, and maybe a couple of others in the food & beverage queue.  With game times typically 2-3 hours, there's no risk of incubation creating secondary infections within the same crowd.  It's obviously possible to catch a virus in a crowded football stadium, but the odds of doing so are much smaller.

 

I'm fortunate that I've never caught anything worse than a cold while cruising, but for something like CV-19 which is airborne, it is very easy to see how this could spread rapidly in a cruise ship environment.

Edited by Vader1111

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41 minutes ago, The_Big_M said:

 

It's not about the industry. Just because something is defence related doesn't automatically mean an exercise or activity is required.

 

And as you've surely heard, the PM is all about the economy coming back and minimising effects to it. If the return is deemed beneficial to the economy and can be done safely, it would be permitted. Is football essential?

We can argue 'till the cows come home about how "essential" it is to have a battalion of US troops entering the country.  It's just a deflection away from the main point.

 

What is not disputable is that cruise ship crews are completely non-essential, and therefore have zero chance of being granted an exemption allowing them into the country.

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4 minutes ago, Vader1111 said:

 

What is not disputable is that cruise ship crews are completely non-essential, and therefore have zero chance of being granted an exemption allowing them into the country.

They will be granted entry.  It's a matter of when, not if.  

I expect there will be quarantine, testing, controls and conditions.  Cruise lines will have to foot the associated costs to be granted entry.  

 

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1 hour ago, ilikeanswers said:

The industry will need a serious PR boost before the government will support their restarting🙄

One cruiseline did provide positive 'PR' with the cruises for the emergency workers. All seems forgotten now, at least by the wider community.

 

I can't see cruising returning to anything like we are used to for a very long time.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, mr walker said:

I can't see cruising returning to anything like we are used to for a very long time.

 

Do we need it to return to what it was? Mass tourism was becoming problematic around the world maybe the industry shrinking is what is needed to give better management of tourist sites. I came across an article about a reef in the Caribbean that they say all the fish have returned and is thriving with life since all the tourists have disappeared. Maybe change in the tourist industry wouldn't be so bad 🤔

Edited by ilikeanswers

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4 hours ago, Vader1111 said:

NZ is a bit different to the Philippines & Indonesia, which is where the majority of ships' crews come from.

If they government does that, then I find that bordering on being racist, people from any country should be able to do a quarantine period.

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3 hours ago, Vader1111 said:

The only people coming into Australia now are citizens and permanent residents.  We're not allowing foreigners into the country, with only a few exceptions.  They're not making exceptions for thousands of cabin stewards and waiters.

 

The only way domestic cruises would be allowed anytime soon, is if the ships are staffed entirely by Australians or citizens from countries within the Trans Tasman Bubble (which I expect to be expanded to include the South Pacific island nations).

What you state is the conditions now, which will certainly not be case in 6 months time, especially if they have opened to country to NZers and south pacific islanders.

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21 minutes ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

Do we need it to return to what it was? Mass tourism was becoming problematic around the world maybe the industry shrinking is what is needed to give better management of tourist sites. I came across an article about a reef in the Caribbean that they say all the fish have returned and is thriving with life since all the tourists have disappeared. Maybe change in the tourist industry wouldn't be so bad 🤔

I'd agree with that. Larger ports that could easily handle 3-5 cruise ships of 1500-2000 passengers each struggle to handle the same number of ships at 3500-4500 passengers each. Smaller ports now struggle to cope with more than one ship.

 

We've been very lucky here in that most ports don't get more than one or two ships at a time. I'll never forget the disappointment of visiting Marseilles in 2017 with five ships in port carrying an estimated 18,000 passengers. It was almost impossible to move in parts of the town.

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3 hours ago, Vader1111 said:

There are exceptions, and many of these are permanent residents.  Those numbers represent reductions of 98% or more on their pre-covid baselines.  Foreigners being allowed entry are by exception, and cruise ship crews will definitely not qualify for any exception.

 

If you'd scrolled down further on that page, you would have found the following:

1.4 All arrivals - Visa groups - provisional estimates(a)

Visa Group
Apr-19
Apr-20

Permanent Family Visas
        24,330
            990
Permanent Other Visas
        57,560
         1,450
Permanent Skilled Visas
        49,170
         1,380
Temporary Other Visas
        33,860
            570
Temporary Skilled Visas
        22,890
            160
Temporary Student Visas
        46,480
              30
Temporary Visitor Visas
      490,810
            850
Temporary Work Visas
        19,300
              40

(a) To confidentialise, estimates have been rounded to the nearest 10.

 

Permanent visa = returning permanent resident.

 

Only 1650 temporary visa arrivals for the entire month.  This shows just how exceptional these arrivals really are, and how unlikely cruise ship crews are to obtain one.

Yet  850 visitor visas , nothing to be sneezed at.

 

perhaps a poor choice of words.

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Travel and cruising has changed and will continue to do so.

It is fortunate we have many choices but frustrating we are currently denied the opportunity to put plans into action.

Never thought we would be not permitted to leave the state or Australia.

It is surreal and bizarre that only a few months ago none of this was on the horizon.

We spent Christmas/new year in Europe and UK, seems an eternity ago.

Feel for people who cannot see family, or friends overseas and may never see them again because they have died from covid-19.

Not all travel is pleasure related and the current situation is negatively impacting many all over the world that will be difficult to resolve.

  

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3 hours ago, Vader1111 said:

Australia has an agreement with the USA, which sees them permanently basing a battalion or so in the NT.  It's a long-standing arrangement.

P&O have been cruising out of Australia for over 78 years, perhaps that arrangement was not long enough?

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2 hours ago, geoff2802 said:

They will be granted entry.  It's a matter of when, not if.  

I expect there will be quarantine, testing, controls and conditions.  Cruise lines will have to foot the associated costs to be granted entry.  

 

It's definitely "when, not if"... but "when" will not be until after we're allowed to travel internationally again, which won't be until 2021 at the earliest.  Cruise ships will definitely not be included in any Trans Tasman Bubble.

 

Cruise ship crews will not be given any special exemptions or exceptions.  They will be allowed back into the country once we re-open our borders to everyone else, and that's not happening any time soon.

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30 minutes ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

Do we need it to return to what it was? Mass tourism was becoming problematic around the world maybe the industry shrinking is what is needed to give better management of tourist sites. I came across an article about a reef in the Caribbean that they say all the fish have returned and is thriving with life since all the tourists have disappeared. Maybe change in the tourist industry wouldn't be so bad 🤔

The coral around the Isle of Pines has been loved to death, and ship tours are no longer allowed to go to the Natural Aquarium (La Piscene Naturelle) - though you can still go there on privately booked tours.  The locals on Lifou limit the number of people allowed into the water at Jinek Bay, and charge an entry fee.

 

There's no doubt that we're already having a major impact on the South Pacific islands that we love so much.

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2 hours ago, Vader1111 said:

We can argue 'till the cows come home about how "essential" it is to have a battalion of US troops entering the country.  It's just a deflection away from the main point.

 

What is not disputable is that cruise ship crews are completely non-essential, and therefore have zero chance of being granted an exemption allowing them into the country.

Are the cows Australian cows, if not they shouldn't be allowed to come home until they have served a quarantine period.

As for exemptions, they will not be required as the travel restrictions will allow them back.

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