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Use your government check for stock purchase.

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2 minutes ago, robsmom said:

It is a nice sentiment, but not economically sound.   Even if millions of dollars were pumped into buying the stock, it just raises the stock price.  It changes who owns the company, but not the underlying economic value of the company.  Typically, there is a correlation between the stock price and the economic value (or at least the perceived or anticipated value).   If a group of cruise enthusiasts artificially inflate the price, this will benefit the investors already owing the stock, who will see that the price is now higher than what they value the company at and will now sell.  Selling will drive the price back down.   Without huge financial backing it would be nearly impossible to sustain an artificial price for any period of time.  Regarding the banks,  They will make loans based upon the balance sheet and projected income statement, not the share price.   

The thing with any industry geared for discretionary expenditure like Disney, Universal Studios, or NCL, etc., is their value is totally dependent on their market, and the willingness of their consumers to pay. Would I want to get on a cruise ship any time in the next year? No.

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32 minutes ago, elwood_98034 said:

The thing with any industry geared for discretionary expenditure like Disney, Universal Studios, or NCL, etc., is their value is totally dependent on their market, and the willingness of their consumers to pay. Would I want to get on a cruise ship any time in the next year? No.

totally agree.  Cancelled our November trip yesterday.   Even if I ever decide to cruise again, the prices will be much lower.   I may never cruise again.   I was just trying to address the economics of the OP’s suggestion.   

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Before anyone buys stock in the cruise industry right now they need to consider the risk.  Google what happened to owners of GM stock when it went belly-up in 2009 and then was bailed out by the government.


The risk vs. reward is very interesting right now but you must educate yourself before buying any stock and only invest money that you can afford to lose.

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3 hours ago, robsmom said:

It is a nice sentiment, but not economically sound.   Even if millions of dollars were pumped into buying the stock, it just raises the stock price.  It changes who owns the company, but not the underlying economic value of the company.  Typically, there is a correlation between the stock price and the economic value (or at least the perceived or anticipated value).   If a group of cruise enthusiasts artificially inflate the price, this will benefit the investors already owing the stock, who will see that the price is now higher than what they value the company at and will now sell.  Selling will drive the price back down.   Without huge financial backing it would be nearly impossible to sustain an artificial price for any period of time.  Regarding the banks,  They will make loans based upon the balance sheet and projected income statement, not the share price.     If you want to help NCL, a better use of the check would be to put deposits on future ships.   This allows NCL to show the banks that they have projected future revenue.  

 

I agree with what you say and totally understand what you mean but the stock price right now does not represent the underlying economic value of the company. The underlying economic value of NCL is probably not lower now than it was a month ago, only time will tell.

 

If NCL survive, which I think they will, the stock price will most likely return to the value it had before Corona.

 

But as I said, I'm not an expert. 

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17 minutes ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

I agree with what you say and totally understand what you mean but the stock price right now does not represent the underlying economic value of the company. The underlying economic value of NCL is probably not lower now than it was a month ago, only time will tell.

 

If NCL survive, which I think they will, the stock price will most likely return to the value it had before Corona.

 

But as I said, I'm not an expert. 

Not an expert either and I have not spent anytime looking at NCL’s number.   I would argue that the economic value has declined.   The question is by how much.   Clearly they will have a loss for 2020.   What will 2021 look like?  Future years? Do they have dividends? Will those dividends be reduced or eliminated?   How much more debt will they have to take on to maintain cash flow?   Investors who agree with you that there is no decline in value (or not as much as the market currently believes) would be the people buying now.    Those who think the value could be lower are sellers.     If you believe in the company, think it has a strong enough balance sheet to survive and prosper, than by all means purchase.   For me, the risk is too great and I would not go near this one right now. 

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, robsmom said:

Not an expert either and I have not spent anytime looking at NCL’s number.   I would argue that the economic value has declined.   The question is by how much.   Clearly they will have a loss for 2020.   What will 2021 look like?  Future years? Do they have dividends? Will those dividends be reduced or eliminated?   How much more debt will they have to take on to maintain cash flow?   Investors who agree with you that there is no decline in value (or not as much as the market currently believes) would be the people buying now.    Those who think the value could be lower are sellers.     If you believe in the company, think it has a strong enough balance sheet to survive and prosper, than by all means purchase.   For me, the risk is too great and I would not go near this one right now. 

 

I have not looked at their numbers either. If the bank I normally use for my investments could sell me NCL stocks I might look at the numbers but since they don't I haven't bothered to do it.

 

I'm not rich and invest to be able to retire early and right now I don't plan to invest more than I normally do. The value of my investments has "only" decreased in value around $25000 during the last weeks but I don't see that money as lost and count on that most of the value will be back before I shall sell. Only time will tell. 

 

Edited by sverigecruiser

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Buy local support local. The private businesses will benefit more. And I referring to small business . Corporations have a much better chance of surviving.

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OTOH, if NCL could make the cancellation FCCs they're offering convertible to stock, it would at least be an interesting offer. It could help preserve their cash position and it would be fungible for customers.

 

I have no idea whether that's legal or practical. Probably neither.

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i rather do two things with my Government check in these precarious times. 

 

1) save it for a rainy day.

2) give it to someone who actually needs it for something more important, like paying for rent, food etc...

 

I would never give my money to a company that may end up going bankrupt. IMHO...

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