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1 hour ago, grapau27 said:

Fortunately I believe Pauline is asymptomatic and has been great.

I was very close to having to go into hospital but fortunately after a bad Saturday night 8 days ago I fought back and turned the corner.

You've highlighted the thing that disturbs me most about COVID. It's bad enough being very ill with it, but we now know there's the point where you either turn the corner and slowly start to improve, or it goes the other way and you get even more ill. If I was unlucky enough to be ill with COVID, I'm sure this would be on my mind. 

 

I'm glad you turned the corner the right way. 

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1 minute ago, Harry Peterson said:

You may be right - I have no idea.  But if you are, as you may well be, that's quite a discrepancy between two sets of government issued figures.

The difference has been discussed a few times on the covid press conferences, and my understanding is that the difference is made up of asymptomatic people, or those with mild symptoms that would not have led them to seek a test.

However here's another stat that I don't understand. For the last 6 or 7 weeks France has had a far higher number of daily infections than the UK, and they are undertaking far fewer tests than us, so on this basis their true infection rate should be way higher than ours,  and yet their death rate is running at similar levels to ours.

This suggests to me that UK deaths have been way higher than others  not because of poor govt. adherence to the SAGE advice, but because we are far less healthy than our continental cousins.

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54 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

I absolutely take your point, Avril, but from my point of view, and doubtless countless others, I use those statistics as one of the only avenues open to me to avoid contracting a virus which is likely to be fatal.

 

I could lock myself away completely, never venture even onto the drive or into the village, but the stats allow me to work out an approximate risk of various activities.  At the moment there's apparently a 1 in 85 (ish) chance in an average area of meeting someone with the virus.  That's a pretty small risk outside, distanced, but if that figure became 1 in 5 (unlikely) I'd change my behaviour.

 

It's using the statistics to save lives that counts, and that's what the government is supposed to be doing.

I feel similar to you Harry.

 

At first, we had very little information as to what was happening, especially in our local area. Now that the data collection is better and more local, I've been able to gauge my own risk levels for doing activities outside the house. During the summer, I could see that the new infection rates were low enough to allow me to go out for days, go out for meals, go on the train and go on coach day trips.  When infections started to rise, I modified my behaviour accordingly.  It gives me a small sense of control when nearly everything else is out of my control.

 

However, I do think it's possible that some  have  become hardened to the figures, particularly the amount of deaths that are announced each day..  That figure has hovered around the 500 per day mark for a while. If that continued for a month, it'd be around 15000 deaths - a vast amount of grieving families. That is a very sobering thought. 

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12 minutes ago, Dermotsgirl said:

You've highlighted the thing that disturbs me most about COVID. It's bad enough being very ill with it, but we now know there's the point where you either turn the corner and slowly start to improve, or it goes the other way and you get even more ill. If I was unlucky enough to be ill with COVID, I'm sure this would be on my mind. 

 

I'm glad you turned the corner the right way. 

Thanks Dermotsgirl.

I didn't realise how Ill  I was until Pauline told me later but I'm very happy it went the right way for me.

I sincerely hope neither you or any of your family experience covid19.

Graham.

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54 minutes ago, grapau27 said:

Sorry I don't understand your point.

I answered your questions as fully as possible and just had a 16 day nightmare with Covid19 and still am unwell.

Graham, I was referring to the amount of medication you and others have to take, which includes my wife, her medication and vitamin pills are like having a bowl full of breakfast.

And that,s without at times, the steroids which then add another 10 tablets per day. 

But they are the necessities of life, which were not around to help, decades ago.

So no offence was intended Sorry

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2 minutes ago, Dermotsgirl said:

I feel similar to you Harry.

 

At first, we had very little information as to what was happening, especially in our local area. Now that the data collection is better and more local, I've been able to gauge my own risk levels for doing activities outside the house. During the summer, I could see that the new infection rates were low enough to allow me to go out for days, go out for meals, go on the train and go on coach day trips.  When infections started to rise, I modified my behaviour accordingly.  It gives me a small sense of control when nearly everything else is out of my control.

 

However, I do think it's possible that some  have  become hardened to the figures, particularly the amount of deaths that are announced each day..  That figure has hovered around the 500 per day mark for a while. If that continued for a month, it'd be around 15000 deaths - a vast amount of grieving families. That is a very sobering thought. 

That's the way I look at it.  We've modified our behaviour to take account of our local figures. They may not be perfect, but they're better than nothing.  From those figures I can gauge what risks we can take, and the situation now is very much worse than it was in September so we act accordingly.

 

I see it as responsible behaviour, as I'm sure you do, but without figures to go on (statistics has unfortunately become something of a dirty word - unfortunately) it's impossible to make those judgments.

 

It's not statistics per se that are the problem.  It's the interpretation of them by people who don't understand them, are using them to sell newspapers, or are peddling fake news.

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Just now, mercury7289 said:

Graham, I was referring to the amount of medication you and others have to take, which includes my wife, her medication and vitamin pills are like having a bowl full of breakfast.

And that,s without at times, the steroids which then add another 10 tablets per day. 

But they are the necessities of life, which were not around to help, decades ago.

So no offence was intended Sorry

Thanks for replying,no offense taken it was my misunderstanding.

I was confused with the saying but Avril clarified the phrase to me which made me happy because I overreacted unnecessarily.

 

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Just now, grapau27 said:

Thanks for replying,no offense taken it was my misunderstanding.

I was confused with the saying but Avril clarified the phrase to me which made me happy because I overreacted unnecessarily.

 

Graham

Fully understand,

I am a life time Fulham fan, so my day could not have got any worse anyway!😒

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5 hours ago, DamianG said:

 

I've heard that the Carabinieri want a word with you about your driving and have put out this video  😉

 

 

I'm more like Micheal Caine in the Italian job,lol.Another 6 hrs today to Thionville,a stones throw from Luxembourg with the cheapest fuel in Europe for the final leg.Thru part of Belgium and back into France.Didn't see 1 French plod either,they must be hiding from me.Cheers,Brian.

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21 minutes ago, grapau27 said:

Thanks Dermotsgirl.

I didn't realise how Ill  I was until Pauline told me later but I'm very happy it went the right way for me.

I sincerely hope neither you or any of your family experience covid19.

Graham.

Thank you. We are doing what we can to avoid it 

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2 hours ago, Harry Peterson said:

I see we have some people here as interested as statistics as I am.  Can anyone help me out with this Covid conundrum please?

 

The average number of infections across England is around 210 per 100,000 at present.

 

That would suggest to me that you have a 0.21% chance of meeting someone potentially infectious.

 

But the ONS says that it’s 1 in 80/85 people with the infection.  That’s around 1,2% - 6 times higher.

 

Where am I going wrong in trying to understand these figures?

I think it's because the ONS figures are a guesstimate of how many people overall are infected including asymtomatic, not poorly, and don't bother with a test. The other is based on actual results. The ONS website is quite good, but I'm sure you've already read it.

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18 hours ago, AndyMichelle said:

Just heard some devastating news about a 33 year old local lad, (Michelle's hairdressers brother) who was fit and healthy and was Europe's 5th strongest man in 2018, who became ill with Covid 11 days ago and has now died... 

He seemingly followed all the guidelines like the rest of us. 

For all the doubters... I hope you never have to deal with what his family and 12 year old son are going through now... 

Andy 


Awfully sad Andy, so sorry for his family.

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11 minutes ago, happy v said:

I replied before I read all the other posts and now realise this has already been said, sorry.

 

No need, please. Always good to get a second opinion. You and John have provided what appears to be the answer I couldn’t find elsewhere. It makes sense.

 

So the most likely figure is 1 in around 80 people, plus or minus according to where you live.

 

Could be worse, but nothing like the 1 in 500 earlier in the year.

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2 hours ago, grapau27 said:

Fortunately I believe Pauline is asymptomatic and has been great.

I was very close to having to go into hospital but fortunately after a bad Saturday night 8 days ago I fought back and turned the corner.


I’m glad you have turned a corner and hopefully you are going to fully recover. If you do have a relapse at all though and have trouble breathing just call an ambulance, I think (understandably) people are scared to go to hospital for anything . One of my elderly patients with COPD was refusing to go to hospital but the respiratory nurse persuaded her she really had to.

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Graham, I apologise for the discussion of risk and statistics. It’s not intended to be insensitive, given your current situation, but just to understand what the risks are, and how to minimise them. I know you were doing that, but unlucky enough to have needed hospital treatment at just the wrong time.

 

For what it’s worth I’ve just completed 12 days following a similarly risky hospital procedure.  Potential incubation period nearly over but it’s been a niggling concern since the procedure. Only an understanding of the statistics persuaded me to take a chance on it. Lesser of two evils and all that.

 

I sincerely hope your recovery continues apace, and that you’re soon back out and about again on that beautiful Northumbrian coast.  😊

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1 hour ago, Dermotsgirl said:

I feel similar to you Harry.

 

At first, we had very little information as to what was happening, especially in our local area. Now that the data collection is better and more local, I've been able to gauge my own risk levels for doing activities outside the house. During the summer, I could see that the new infection rates were low enough to allow me to go out for days, go out for meals, go on the train and go on coach day trips.  When infections started to rise, I modified my behaviour accordingly.  It gives me a small sense of control when nearly everything else is out of my control.

 

However, I do think it's possible that some  have  become hardened to the figures, particularly the amount of deaths that are announced each day..  That figure has hovered around the 500 per day mark for a while. If that continued for a month, it'd be around 15000 deaths - a vast amount of grieving families. That is a very sobering thought. 


Yes it’s getting worse again round here isn’t it? I feel less inclined to go out again, the only shop I’ve been to is M&S once for my click and collect parcel since the new lockdown. I think we’ll go into tier 3 when we come out again. I liked the odd walk in Minster in Sheppey when my husband was off but I’m not going that away again while the figures are so high.

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14 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

No need, please. Always good to get a second opinion. You and John have provided what appears to be the answer I couldn’t find elsewhere. It makes sense.

 

So the most likely figure is 1 in around 80 people, plus or minus according to where you live.

 

Could be worse, but nothing like the 1 in 500 earlier in the year.

But we do have hope now. Just hang on for a little while longer.

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2 minutes ago, happy v said:

But we do have hope now. Just hang on for a little while longer.


l see today Boris is suggesting almost back to normal by Easter - would be lovely although I’m sure he said that about Christmas 😏

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26 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

No need, please. Always good to get a second opinion. You and John have provided what appears to be the answer I couldn’t find elsewhere. It makes sense.

 

So the most likely figure is 1 in around 80 people, plus or minus according to where you live.

 

Could be worse, but nothing like the 1 in 500 earlier in the year.

But isn't 1 in 500 far better than 1 in 80?

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3 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

But isn't 1 in 500 far better than 1 in 80?

Yes - that was my point.  The situation in the summer and early autumn was much better.  It's deteriorated rapidly since then, and the Christmas proposals will make it even worse still.

 

Madness.

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18 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

Graham, I apologise for the discussion of risk and statistics. It’s not intended to be insensitive, given your current situation, but just to understand what the risks are, and how to minimise them. I know you were doing that, but unlucky enough to have needed hospital treatment at just the wrong time.

 

For what it’s worth I’ve just completed 12 days following a similarly risky hospital procedure.  Potential incubation period nearly over but it’s been a niggling concern since the procedure. Only an understanding of the statistics persuaded me to take a chance on it. Lesser of two evils and all that.

 

I sincerely hope your recovery continues apace, and that you’re soon back out and about again on that beautiful Northumbrian coast.  😊

Thanks Harry I'm pleased your potential incubation period following a hospital visit is almost complete and you are well.

My symptoms started 4 days after extensive checks on my eyes at the eye infirmary where everyone had masks on  but no visors on plus the waiting room was full even though 2 metre social distancing was implemented.

The talk of risk and statistics didn't affect me at all and makes interesting reading.

Graham.

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33 minutes ago, P&O SUE said:


Yes it’s getting worse again round here isn’t it? I feel less inclined to go out again, the only shop I’ve been to is M&S once for my click and collect parcel since the new lockdown. I think we’ll go into tier 3 when we come out again. I liked the odd walk in Minster in Sheppey when my husband was off but I’m not going that away again while the figures are so high.

Since this current lockdown started we’ve been out once to a shop because I needed my eczema cream from Boots. We also had a take away coffee for the walk home, which was exciting! We allowed a couple of delivery men in to deliver our new TV, but apart from that we’ve been very distant from the world. 
 

I’m almost certain we’ll go into the highest tier when lockdown ends. I think one of the reasons Swale is so high is due to the prison on Sheppey, but it’s a bit alarming seeing the figures. We used to walk to Hartlip during the first lockdown, so I know exactly where the Medway/Swale border is. I imagine the virus loitering on the border, waiting to jump on anybody who steps over into Swale! 

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