Possible Bankruptcy??

[Roberto256]

8 hours ago, trrn2016 said:

Is anyone else concerned that we might not get our refunds if they go bankrupt??

If they announce Frank Lorenzo is the new president of carnival corp.

That is the time to worry.

 

 

[BIG TIME CRUISER]

8 hours ago, Hlitner said:

Love all the optimism.  I have been an avid cruiser since the mid-70's and had two cruise lines (Regency and Renaissance) go bankrupt with some of my money.  So it does happen.  Will it happen to CCL?  It is unlikely but anything is possible, especially if the cruise industry shut down lasts more then a few months.  Given a choice we would now want a cash refund as opposed to taking a FCC.

 

Hank

We sailed Regency and they had many so problems with their crew and ships I can understand why they disappeared. CCL is a completely different story.

[skynight]

Not worried. I do think there is a real possibility that the corporation will shed some older ships and change some itineraries. 

[susancruzs]

I have a cruise for the Baltic & a TA Aug./Sept. I haven't cancelled "yet".  I'm not concerned about the cruise industry.  I don't have big amounts of money tied up, $100. deposit on 4 cruises but not concerned.

 

By nature, I'm not wired to worry.  Why?  Do I have any input or say on what is happening because of this pandemic?  I can only do things to keep myself safe, out of harms way and see what happens.  I will have to keep an eye on my upcoming cruise, what is happening in the world but worry, nope.

Edited March 22, 2020 by susancruzs

[Fat Albert]

CCL is going to make it out of this recession/depression . PCL might be the one division of CCL that goes bankrupt. The news has concentrated on Princess ships having the virus. The cash flow has dried up and the new builds with those large bank notes on the most recent ships like Sky are still due monthly. The burn rate for Princess is very high and will not be able to cover expenses in a very short period, maybe 2-3 months and they will go out of business with no passengers cruising. If the industry remains shut down for the summer I believe PCL will not make it .

[ghstudio]

Carnival could easily move PCL future cruise credits to the corporation, making them usable on any Carnival cruise line.....and if it comes to concidering bankruptcy for PCL, they would be brain dead not to do that prior to any bankruptcy filing in order to preserve the very people that will start to cruise when cruising starts again.  

[antsp]

Until a vaccine is available I think cruise lines have got a big big problem, I’m concerned the Princess brand may disappear, anyone who thinks this cant happen is in denial. Look around see what’s happening in the world, it’s unimaginable what’s going on. 

[voljeep]

yep, wouldn't be surprised if our late 11/20 cruise is in jeopardy

 

but glass is more than half-full it will still be a go - but may be to princess cay or amber cay instead of Cozumel, etc 

Edited March 22, 2020 by voljeep

[Earthworm Jim]

8 hours ago, caribill said:

Mr. Arison does not want that $1,513,632,408 to disappear. There will be no bankruptcy.

 

I'm not sure that means much. No executive ever wants their company to go bankrupt. But if the debt for a company becomes more than they can pay, and if efforts to restructure or refinance that debt fail, that company probably doesn't have any other option.

 

If it comes to that the idea that Mr. Arison could stop it by force of will because he would lose a lot of money doesn't seem plausible to me.

[PrincessLuver]

21 minutes ago, Earthworm Jim said:

 

I'm not sure that means much. No executive ever wants their company to go bankrupt. But if the debt for a company becomes more than they can pay, and if efforts to restructure or refinance that debt fail, that company probably doesn't have any other option.

 

If it comes to that the idea that Mr. Arison could stop it by force of will because he would lose a lot of money doesn't seem plausible to me.

 

I agree.....been around too long to know that no one is too big to fail....there have been plenty of major airlines and other businesses go down in my time which were worth way more then CCL.  I have accepted the fact they are probably going to have to go into bankruptcy reorganization and the passengers they owe money too will end up with nothing....The Love Boat will be no more.....

[antsp]

1 minute ago, PrincessLuver said:

 

I agree.....been around too long to know that no one is too big to fail....there have been plenty of major airlines and other businesses go down in my time which were worth way more then CCL.  I have accepted the fact they are probably going to have to go into bankruptcy reorganization and the passengers they owe money too will end up with nothing....The Love Boat will be no more.....

Sad sad times.  

[dweeb]

59 minutes ago, PrincessLuver said:

 

I agree.....been around too long to know that no one is too big to fail....there have been plenty of major airlines and other businesses go down in my time which were worth way more then CCL.  I have accepted the fact they are probably going to have to go into bankruptcy reorganization and the passengers they owe money too will end up with nothing....The Love Boat will be no more.....

 

This is the most honest, non emotional response I have read.  I agree 100%.  

[Gracie115]

Well this is what Princess website is saying........

 

Thank you for your patience during this time. Given the volume of refund requests and the care being dedicated to ensure each guest’s request is processed accurately and in a coordinated manner, please allow for approximately 60 days for refunds to be processed. All refunds will be processed in due course, but delays should be anticipated. Please allow sufficient time for us to manage this process and know we are doing everything in our power to expedite where possible.

 

No future cash flow with which to pay all the refunds off at the moment since everyone cancelled at once..... It takes two strokes to cancel a reservation one to cancel and the other to refund......yet it's not happening....because there is no cash flow and that's why the offer of double FCC or 50%FCC to try to entice people not to cancel....will they go bankrupt, probably not, stock is up 3 dollars from it's low on Wednesday but until they get more  cruises booked and some cash refunds will wait, especially for those on later dates.....

[PescadoAmarillo]

12 hours ago, neverbeenhere said:

I believe there is a call into Uncle Samuel Wilson that likely takes care of any pending problems. 

I fervently hope that does not happen. 

[cabland]

1 hour ago, PrincessLuver said:

 

I agree.....been around too long to know that no one is too big to fail....there have been plenty of major airlines and other businesses go down in my time which were worth way more then CCL.  I have accepted the fact they are probably going to have to go into bankruptcy reorganization and the passengers they owe money too will end up with nothing....The Love Boat will be no more.....

Sadly, I have to agree.   These guys aren't going to have a choice.  They go bankrupt, the shareholders get the shaft, and they emerge.  Banks aren't going to "take their ships" - who are they going to sell them to.  Same thing we've seen with a number of airlines in the past, general motors, etc.

 

Even if there were a cure or a vaccine available TODAY, consumer confidence in the economy and the cruise industry is months (or even years) away from returning.  😞 

 

[Coral]

14 hours ago, tntornadox said:

Carnival is in a much better position than their competitors. RCI and NCLH go into major debt to fund their new shipbuilds whereas Carnival Corp. pays cash for theirs. That's a big reason why their debt rating is much better.

While I don't have great insight into this - I don't think CCL pays cash for their ships. I would be willing to have some one else prove me otherwise who knows more than I.

 

I know some lines such as Viking and Amawaterways (river cruises) do pay cash. I also think CCL is in a better position than RCI and NCLH.

[cruzsnooze]

NCL is reported to be the best able to survive per this article

 

Meanwhile, Harry Curtis, who covers the cruise industry for Instinet, wrote in a note Monday that the “U.S.-listed cruise operators have enough borrowing capacity, cash and CapEx flexibility to stay afloat for roughly a year.”

He estimates that Norwegian, the smallest of the three cruise operators in terms of revenues, has the most staying power right now, with a monthly cash burn of about $140 million and liquidity, or cash, of about $1.6 billion. He puts Royal Caribbean in second place in terms of liquidity, followed by Carnival.

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-operators-seem-left-out-of-the-850-billion-stimulus-plan-their-stocks-are-sinking-again-51584464624

Edited March 22, 2020 by cruzsnooze

[caribill]

1 hour ago, cruzsnooze said:

NCL is reported to be the best able to survive per this article

 

Meanwhile, Harry Curtis, who covers the cruise industry for Instinet, wrote in a note Monday that the “U.S.-listed cruise operators have enough borrowing capacity, cash and CapEx flexibility to stay afloat for roughly a year.”

He estimates that Norwegian, the smallest of the three cruise operators in terms of revenues, has the most staying power right now, with a monthly cash burn of about $140 million and liquidity, or cash, of about $1.6 billion. He puts Royal Caribbean in second place in terms of liquidity, followed by Carnival.

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-operators-seem-left-out-of-the-850-billion-stimulus-plan-their-stocks-are-sinking-again-51584464624

 

And I have seen a detailed analysis from another source that concludes

 

"Carnival Cruise Line has the best liquidity, interest coverage, and is the most solvent out of all three companies. If any of them were to survive, I would put my money on Carnival Corporation."

 

I can't post the link as it would have to include links to my personal info.

[AL3XCruise]

19 minutes ago, caribill said:

And I have seen a detailed analysis from another source that concludes

 

"Carnival Cruise Line has the best liquidity, interest coverage, and is the most solvent out of all three companies. If any of them were to survive, I would put my money on Carnival Corporation."

 

And, to the best of my knowledge, no one outside of these companies has detailed knowledge of what the current cash burn actually is, what it is projected to be, what percentage of cancellations will require cash refunds, etc.  From the broadest possible view, CCL does seem to have a stronger balance sheet, but cutting expenses, deferring liabilities, and securing additional financing are all ongoing unknowns.  I have not seen any evidence that analysts are coming to a consensus on how that is all going to shake out for CCL, RCCL, NCLH, etc.

[sfaaa]

7 hours ago, antsp said:

Until a vaccine is available I think cruise lines have got a big big problem, I’m concerned the Princess brand may disappear, anyone who thinks this cant happen is in denial. Look around see what’s happening in the world, it’s unimaginable what’s going on. 

Banks will likely be next when businesses and individuals of all types are starting to default on their loans and mortgages. Where are you going to run then? G7 governments and the world bank are working hard to make sure this is not going to happen. And this will include bail out options and loan restructuring among other things.  

[Lucky TGO]

On 3/21/2020 at 8:46 PM, Tak8 said:

No.  Just like I have faith  in my Disney stock.  Parks will reopen, ships will sail again.

I totally agree with you.

Tony

[franktown]

Disney is not a cruise company.  Does have a few ships but is a diversified entertainment company.  The valuations are not even in the same universe.

[nbsjcruiser]

On 3/22/2020 at 9:04 AM, skynight said:

Not worried. I do think there is a real possibility that the corporation will shed some older ships and change some itineraries. 

I think you're right. I dont think we can say for sure how the cruise industry will come out of this but I can't see it being status quo. I would not be surprised to see Carnival shed ships or maybe lines. I'm no financial  expert but could Carnival shed Costa for instance? Mothball it for a length of time? Maybe a healthier cruise line does a takeover of a not so healthy cruise line. There will be major shifts for sure and a lot will depend on any bailout money but even there there are valid arguments not to give cruise lines anything. They all fly the flag of their "home country" so they pay no tax in the US. Should the US government bail them out? Good question.

 

There will also be major shakeups with Travel Agencies. Many of these places are either privately owned or are franchisees. When they book cruises they get no money until the ship sails. So while many people will happily book again in 60 or 90 or 120 days or however long the economy is down, the TAs aren't going to see any money until their customers sail. The TA game is a hard game to begin with. The perks are ok (not near as good as you'd like to think - I know) but its not a game you'll get rich at. Many TAs will drop out to find work elsewhere and many franchises will close. This will have an impact too.

 

And lastly, how eager will people be to jump right back on a cruise ship? Speaking personally, until this virus is definitely eradicated, no way I'm setting foot on a ship with 3 or 4 other thousand people. Can't imagine I'm the only one who feels that way. 

 

Cruising will resume but its going to be a slow return to normal, whatever that looks like. 

[caribill]

5 hours ago, nbsjcruiser said:

They all fly the flag of their "home country" so they pay no tax in the US. Should the US government bail them out? Good question.

 

 

Although what you say is true, there are many USA jobs in auxiliary work that depend on the cruise industry.

 

The economies of port cities such as Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Galveston, etc. have many jobs that would not exist without the cruise industry being healthy.

 

From longshoremen to hotels to port check-in personnel to ships' purveyors, many USA jobs are at stake.

[eclue]

On 3/21/2020 at 11:07 PM, gvre said:

No Way..this whole thing will blow thru in a couple of weeks.

Believe!

It will blow through but it will be more like several months..