Poll: How much will you cruise when cruising resumes?

[Hoopster95]

16 minutes ago, bobmacliberty said:

Unfortunately, I think your conference call survey will be very representative of the general public for quite a while.

 

Ya, I think so too. It would be incredible for a few people to poll out to their facebook friends/family the exact same poll, where it's not an overwhelming majority of cruise addicts like us here. 

edit: and just wait for the news channels tomorrow ( I think) when Zaandam arrives in Fort Lauderdale

Edited March 29, 2020 by Hoopster95

[Newleno]

I would like to see this poll rerun, betcha we would get some different numbers (on the negative side)

[SAB017]

Do you people know how the virus spreads???How many respirators are there aboard a ship???

[Biker19]

1 minute ago, SAB017 said:

How many respirators are there aboard a ship?

Not sure it makes much diff - at first sign of an issue any patient will be off loaded to the nearest port/facility.

[SAB017]

Very fine on a transatlantic........In Belgium people die within 2 days of first signs

[Hoopster95]

On 3/28/2020 at 6:22 PM, Hoopster95 said:

Have all of you seen the article posted (on another thread) of the 4 deaths on Zaandam? In fairness they are not publicizing exactly the cause of deaths, but regardless what they post you just know what the public is going to say the deaths are from.

 

On 3/29/2020 at 3:30 PM, Hoopster95 said:

 edit: and just wait for the news channels tomorrow ( I think) when Zaandam arrives in Fort Lauderdale

 

I just watched this video posted from someone on Zaandam.

The video itself is nothing extraordinary....

 

However, read ALL the comments below the video from all the average "non-cruisers".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNsvvWAh9Yo

 

Zero... and I mean zero ... sympathy and some harsh comments.

Here is your public sentiment by the average North American non-cruiser, non-CC addict.

[Quo Vadis?]

On 3/29/2020 at 6:30 PM, Hoopster95 said:

 

Ya, I think so too. It would be incredible for a few people to poll out to their facebook friends/family the exact same poll, where it's not an overwhelming majority of cruise addicts like us here. 

edit: and just wait for the news channels tomorrow ( I think) when Zaandam arrives in Fort Lauderdale

I just read that the Coast guard won’t let them enter US waters.  Start looking at the news sources and there is a disaster in the making.  I read another article that Carnival is now about to offer 13% bonds to survive..  if I could get a refund rather than the FCC I would wait a few years to cruise again.

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

10 cruises - Princess, Royal Caribbean and Carnival - and loved them all.

 

But there's just nothing on the horizon that makes me think I'll do #11.

 

The Concordia, the Carnival fires (and I'm talking all the way back to the Tropicale), noro, the azipod stranding ... it was all discouraging, but I could make the case for cruising anyway. 

This time is completely different. And as awful as I feel for the Zaandam pax, I can't disagree with people who say "They SAW this coming and chose to cruise anyway? They brought this on themselves."

 

Fox & Trump & the media-bashers all share blame, sure. But ultimately adults made wretchedly poor decisions about their safety ... and ended up in this horrible position. 

So I can't see cruising until: there's a proven & reliable vaccine, a proven & reliable treatment (since the vaccine won't be 100%), massive improvements in the cruise lines' onboard medical staffing & "sick ship" contingency planning, and an international loosening of travel restrictions.

 

The first two - and the fourth - are much further off than the optimists would have us believe.

 

Meanwhile, the  costs for this whole mess will be passed on to passengers - one way or the other. If any of the current cruise lines survive the approaching economic tsunami, they'll desperately need to max out revenue like never before.
 

Meanwhile, the mass market just won't be there any more -- legitimate financial and investment experts are talking unemployment going north of 25 percent. There simply WON'T be the demand to sustain even a large fraction of all the cruise ships currently on the water.

 

So: higher ticket prices, fewer amenities ... and almost certainly way, way more up-sells and add-ons. Even if I felt 100% relaxed cruising in the future, it doesn't shape up to be in my budget again.

 

The high-end lines could come out of this OK. (Famous line from the Great Depression: They never shut down the Cadillac factory). But those fleets & fleets of ships aimed at the mass market may be headed to the scrapper's beaches in India.

 

 

 

 

[Hoopster95]

1 hour ago, Argo. said:

I just read that the Coast guard won’t let them enter US waters.  Start looking at the news sources and there is a disaster in the making.  I read another article that Carnival is now about to offer 13% bonds to survive..  if I could get a refund rather than the FCC I would wait a few years to cruise again.

 

What? Really!?!? Wow. Is there a story on the web somewhere on this?

All I can find online is:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/03/31/holland-america-docking-plan-coronavirus-infected-ship-florida/5095406002/

 

 

 

[Hoopster95]

52 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

The high-end lines could come out of this OK. (Famous line from the Great Depression: They never shut down the Cadillac factory).

 

100% agree.Their target market is mature adults with some amount of $

 

 

52 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

 

But those fleets & fleets of ships aimed at the mass market may be headed to the scrapper's beaches in India.

 

Disagree here... the ships may sit for a while, but there'll be a vulture or two (a conglomerate?) out there with a few billion dollars just waiting to pounce to buy assets at a discount on the dollar, and start up operations again. I feel there's no way that awesome ships like Oasis and Quantum Class don't get taken over by some entity as a last recourse.

 

Maybe my tongue in cheek comment of the new MSCL - "Morgan Stanley Cruise Lines" may not be too far off after all ☹️

Edited April 1, 2020 by Hoopster95

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

21 minutes ago, Hoopster95 said:

 

 

Disagree here... the ships may sit for a while, but there'll be a vulture or two (a conglomerate?) out there with a few billion dollars just waiting to pounce to buy assets at a discount on the dollar, and start up operations again. I feel there's no way that awesome ships like Oasis and Quantum Class don't get taken over by some entity as a last recourse.

 

Maybe my tongue in cheek comment of the new MSCL - "Morgan Stanley Cruise Lines" may not be too far off after all ☹️

Hoopster - Yes, there'll be plenty of private equity $$ willing to rechristen Voyager as Hedge Fund Of The Seas ... but only if the shot callers see a profit potential.
 

   If there's truly Armageddon for small and medium businesses, the employment base just won't exist to support floods of mass market cruises. Some, but nothing like what we've had for 20 years.

      Benefit cuts, pay freezes, relatives out of work or being evicted -- many average Americans, Europeans or Central/South Americans who still have jobs this

fall will be juggling a lot of higher priorities than cruising. If there's a wave of pension funds going south, even the retirees will be coping with more urgent matters. 

    Thus my thought about scrapyards.  
     Empty banks, department stores, office buildings, apartment towers, even big box stores: all can usually be repurposed. However, a couple dozen surplus cruise ships ... not so much. 

 

 

 

[grandgeezer]

4 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

Hoopster - Yes, there'll be plenty of private equity $$ willing to rechristen Voyager as Hedge Fund Of The Seas ... but only if the shot callers see a profit potential.
 

   If there's truly Armageddon for small and medium businesses, the employment base just won't exist to support floods of mass market cruises. Some, but nothing like what we've had for 20 years.

      Benefit cuts, pay freezes, relatives out of work or being evicted -- many average Americans, Europeans or Central/South Americans who still have jobs this

fall will be juggling a lot of higher priorities than cruising. If there's a wave of pension funds going south, even the retirees will be coping with more urgent matters. 

    Thus my thought about scrapyards.  
     Empty banks, department stores, office buildings, apartment towers, even big box stores: all can usually be repurposed. However, a couple dozen surplus cruise ships ... not so much. 

 

 

 

And besides, where would you “park” one of these huge Oasis class ships for months or years? Also, if I read correctly, you just can’t park these ships and let them sit idle for months, or maybe even years. Buying the ships might not be too bad, but you have to build your business from the ground up, that won’t happen overnight. 

[zekekelso]

I think we’ve had it incredibly good the last decade. Ships that are more and more amazing. Dirt cheap prices (if you are flexible) for incredible experiences. When the industry comes back, I expect things to be different, and not for the better. So fewer cruises for me, but not due to viruses. Hopefully I’m wrong. 

[JAMESCC]

8 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

10 cruises - Princess, Royal Caribbean and Carnival - and loved them all.

 

But there's just nothing on the horizon that makes me think I'll do #11.

 

The Concordia, the Carnival fires (and I'm talking all the way back to the Tropicale), noro, the azipod stranding ... it was all discouraging, but I could make the case for cruising anyway. 

This time is completely different. And as awful as I feel for the Zaandam pax, I can't disagree with people who say "They SAW this coming and chose to cruise anyway? They brought this on themselves."

 

Fox & Trump & the media-bashers all share blame, sure. But ultimately adults made wretchedly poor decisions about their safety ... and ended up in this horrible position. 

So I can't see cruising until: there's a proven & reliable vaccine, a proven & reliable treatment (since the vaccine won't be 100%), massive improvements in the cruise lines' onboard medical staffing & "sick ship" contingency planning, and an international loosening of travel restrictions.

 

The first two - and the fourth - are much further off than the optimists would have us believe.

 

Meanwhile, the  costs for this whole mess will be passed on to passengers - one way or the other. If any of the current cruise lines survive the approaching economic tsunami, they'll desperately need to max out revenue like never before.
 

Meanwhile, the mass market just won't be there any more -- legitimate financial and investment experts are talking unemployment going north of 25 percent. There simply WON'T be the demand to sustain even a large fraction of all the cruise ships currently on the water.

 

So: higher ticket prices, fewer amenities ... and almost certainly way, way more up-sells and add-ons. Even if I felt 100% relaxed cruising in the future, it doesn't shape up to be in my budget again.

 

The high-end lines could come out of this OK. (Famous line from the Great Depression: They never shut down the Cadillac factory). But those fleets & fleets of ships aimed at the mass market may be headed to the scrapper's beaches in India.

 

 

 

 

Talk about doom and gloom. Good Lord. This is exactly what I'm talking about. Throwing in everything including the kitchen sink. No one, NO ONE can see more than 2 feet in front of their face.

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

Not so. Nobody can tell precisely which way the path beyond the next couple of days will lead, but it's very clearly headed downward and not upward.

 

Many of us saw this coronavirus as awfully bad news by late February (much smarter people than me were calling it as early as late January). So many folks since then have parroted the Hannity/Fox line about "it's just the sniffles" and "the drive-by liberal media's hype" ... and as late as last week, some people here on CC were still thinking spring '20 cruises might still sail.

 

"Gloom and doom" is a cold look at reality now; false optimism helps nothing today. I wish the world - and cruising - weren't taking this hideous hit, but the fact is that they are.

 

 

https://hbr.org/2020/03/understanding-the-economic-shock-of-coronavirus

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-middle-class-faces-its-greatest-threat-since-the-1930s-51584717673
 

 

 

[glrounds]

Booked on the PANORAMA for August sailing. Not sure if that will be cancelled or not also. Had a great trip to London a few years ago. Maybe I'll do Germany this next time. Getting "long in the tooth" (80) so maybe it'll be time to quite traveling. We'll see. 🙂

 

[bobmacliberty]

I'm surprised that nearly 4700 people have responded to this poll.  People here take their cruising seriously!  The data has remained remarkably consist, with about 10% saying they will cruise more, 66% cruising about the same, 16% cruising less, and 8% not at all.  There are (at least) a couple of ways to think about these results:

1. 76% will cruise the same or more...about what I'd expect from a base of responders who are cruising enthusiasts.  There will still be demand from the enthusiast community.
2. (thanks to @grandgeezer for first pointing this out).  10% will cruise more but 24% will cruise less or none.  That means there will be a sizable net drop in demand from the enthusiast community.

I will assume that the general public will be less enthusiastic about returning to cruising than the...well... than the enthusiasts (duh). The cruising industry will have an uphill battle.  The open question is what the industry will do both short and long term to address this issue.  These are some major corporations that are run by some smart people.  And yes...they will be motivated by profit.  I expect some interesting ideas coming.

 

Edited April 9, 2020 by bobmacliberty

[ToroAzul]

I've tested positive for CoVID-19. It was less than sniffles for me, like the vast majority of of people. 

 

I'm ready to start some normalcy. 

Edited April 9, 2020 by ToroAzul

[hotsauce126]

On 3/31/2020 at 4:41 PM, SAB017 said:

Do you people know how the virus spreads???How many respirators are there aboard a ship???

 

As many as people bring on? A respirator is a mask. Unless you mean ventilators

[OCruisers]

As long as we are healthy,  we'lll continue to cruise the same as we always have.  

[Big Tiger Fan]

We are over 70 and DH is a diabetic but if we are allowed we will continue to travel. We only try to do two cruises a year and have some wonderful memories. Hope we get a few more.

[Heatherco]

Not sure at this point.  We are booked for a family cruise in February but now rethinking it.  I think a lot of what we liked about cruising may now change (Windjammer, Spa, for example) and after all the ships being stuck at sea I am not sure I want to deal with that particularly during flu season on top of this virus.

[Balto Bob]

We are booked for January 2021 on our first Oceania cruise.   Hopefully, noting changes and we made a good choice.

[crusinpsychRN]

About the same.

[watson50]

hopefully the same. We have a Dec. cruise booked but I will be over 70 by then. Hope they drop that rule. my medical issues are controlled through my meds and I'm very good. But what Doc. will sign off on that?