What is it going to take to restart Cruises?

[ed01106]

On 3/27/2020 at 12:01 PM, clo said:

As someone here wrote, an MD I believe, there's no guarantee of a vaccine. Period. And what if COVID is more like the common cold for which there is no vaccine but with more dire consequences.

If there is no vaccine but recovery results in immunity, than in a few years it will mostly die out. With sporadic outbreaks every few years that mostly effect children born since the last outbreak, but for whom the virus is not particularly dangerous.

[clo]

19 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

If there is no vaccine but recovery results in immunity, than in a few years it will mostly die out. With sporadic outbreaks every few years that mostly effect children born since the last outbreak, but for whom the virus is not particularly dangerous.

Right. I read that a pandemic is only over when everyone is either dead or immune. Brilliant.

[ed01106]

9 minutes ago, clo said:

Right. I read that a pandemic is only over when everyone is either dead or immune. Brilliant.

Not true. If we used that definition the Spanish Flu pandemic is still going on instead of ending in 1920.  The pandemic ends when enough people are immune that the disease spreads slowly.

[clo]

1 hour ago, ed01106 said:

Not true. If we used that definition the Spanish Flu pandemic is still going on instead of ending in 1920.  The pandemic ends when enough people are immune that the disease spreads slowly.

I think that's the same thing.

[SRF]

On 3/26/2020 at 12:02 PM, clo said:

It seems you're equating tourism with cruising. Sure, the Caribbean and other islands but there's tons of the world that does great without cruise ships. There are places that may use this as a reason to ban them. I think of Dubrovnik which has had the UNESCO heritage status threatened due to crowds.

 

IF we get a vaccine. And we may not. And will this turn out to be like our annual influenza where it mutates with some years the vaccine not being nearly as effective as other years. 

 

I also wonder how on earth they can adequately clean a ship between sailings. With a viral RNA sample having been recovered after 17 days it sure gives me pause.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the industry never recovers. Perhaps some but not all the way. Just my thoughts.

 

The reason for the issue with the flu vaccine is there are dozens of flu strains.  Each year they predict (guess) what the most likely 3 strains are, and make the vaccine for those 3.  Sometimes the guess wrong, and the vaccine is not against a strain that is circulating.

 

RNA is not a viable virus.  If you touch a surface, you can leave DNA, that does not mean there is a human there. 🙂

 

I think the industry will recover.  It will be a while before it is where it was in 2019, but it will happen.

[clo]

6 hours ago, SRF said:

 

RNA is not a viable virus. 

In the below, level 2 sounds interesting.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5189130/