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Changes in Onboard Behavior & Procedures after Cruises restart sailing again...

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2 hours ago, lenquixote66 said:

My predictions:

 

No changes in dining room as far as tables

No changes in pool chairs

No changes in number of passengerd

No changes in buffet

No additional hand washing areas

 

The costs for cruises will be much higher

There will be more high priced specialty restaurants

The cost for shore excursions will be much higher

 

I hope I am wrong but I do not think so

Curious about your "no changes" list. Why not?

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21 hours ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

"Average" person? Not necessarily. 

 

With everything from cars to homes (and even hometowns), I think that we can all agree, as regards socio-economic status, there is no  "average" person across-the-board when you're looking at an industry already geared to serving different "averages."

 

Without making any judgements (nor wanting to have a discussion) about the nature of circumstances responsible for haves/have nots, the reality is that premium/luxury lines have appeal/value for enough of the cruising public 

that the most savvy among them will be able to survive by NOT changing what they do best. 

 

The survival of a line like Oceania will depend on "not fixing what ain't broken" (as regards their product - ships, service, food and amenities).

 

Rather, O's future survival/profitability will depend on attracting/capturing the business of the "haves" frequenting other similar lines (e.g., Azamara), "wannabe" lines like Celebrity and Viking, and luxury line regulars now looking for a better value quotient. (Note that this is one of the strategies that was involved in the introduction of their planned new ships).  

 

As for the idea of also attracting younger cruisers, O has a head start in that it's focus on food knows no age boundary.  Sure, the entertainment might need a refresh. But, the decor has already been upgraded, the (non-"cookie-cutter Caribbean") itineraries are top-notch and the service is exemplary.

 

You can discuss classes higher or lower all you want, but it there is always an average. You don't get to override the system of averages. The average US household is about $62,000 a year, which prices luxury cruises out.

 

So yes, Oceania does rather well at attracting the "haves". However, they are not the most premium line. I think you make that case rather well when you state that their value can rival some of the more mass-market lines. They absolutely attract people that are being hurt financially in this pandemic.

 

Speaking of more "averages" here is the average age by line

 

https://www.cruise1st.co.uk/blog/cruise-holidays/how-old-is-the-average-cruise-passenger/

 

For cruise lines that targetted families with children, the average age was noticeably lower; Carnival had an average age of 44.9, and Royal Caribbean passengers had an average age of 48.8. The cruise lines that attracted the oldest passengers were mostly river cruise lines.

 

Among major ocean cruise lines, Holland America Line also attracted an older passenger base, with an average age of 64. The luxury brand, Oceania Cruises, had an average age of 64.1. Cunard cruises, however, had an average age of just 60.5 due to its specialisation in traditional cruising. Ultra-luxury brands also catered to an older crowd, with the average age of Seabourn passengers at 66.3 and Regent Seven Seas at 62.4. Silversea Cruises, however, had an average age of just 59.5.

 

Oceania is no spring chicken line. Considering this disease has a much harder impact on the older audience, I struggle to see your optimism that this company, hand-picked by you, is best poised to shrug this all off. As to what the true impact is, no one is sure quite yet. It could be worse. It could be better. Your interest in that product seems to have blinded your surroundings. Your case as to them attracting a younger crowd has no correlation to what the young crowd looks for. That proof shows up in the sky-high 64.1 average age.

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47 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

 

Oceania is no spring chicken line. Considering this disease has a much harder impact on the older audience, I struggle to see your optimism that this company, hand-picked by you, is best poised to shrug this all off. As to what the true impact is, no one is sure quite yet. It could be worse. It could be better. Your interest in that product seems to have blinded your surroundings. Your case as to them attracting a younger crowd has no correlation to what the young crowd looks for. That proof shows up in the sky-high 64.1 average age.

 

I'm scratching my head on that one too.  Sometimes people say odd things on these boards in support of their favorite cruise line.  How Oceania is better (or worse) poised to survive a pandemic than any other line is far beyond me.  No one here can possibly know that.  

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

......The average US household is about $62,000 a year, which prices luxury cruises out.

.....So yes, Oceania does rather well at attracting the "haves". However, they are not the most premium line. I think you make that case rather well when you state that their value can rival some of the more mass-market lines. They absolutely attract people that are being hurt financially in this pandemic.

.....Your case as to them attracting a younger crowd has no correlation to what the young crowd looks for. That proof shows up in the sky-high 64.1 average age.

You are missing the point about the shortcomings of using singular "averages."

 

For example, while the US household income average may be in the $60k range, its east and west coasts average an additional $10k. Some major cities average more than twice your stated figure  (e.g., right here in SF =$140,000+ with cities like L.A., N.Y., and D.C. nor far behind). 

 

Obviously, premium/luxury lines already target major metro area populations. But, in the new normal, they will have to step up their efforts, particularly as regards what are newer population subsets for them.

 

And, with the 35-55 age group in the US spending an average of twice what 55-75 age group spends dining out, it will be the increasing emphasis on food (with far better advertising/marketing) that will find Oceania wrestling away the clientele (both "young" and "old") from the rest of the industry segments. To that, adding ever-increasing unusual/long itineraries and a touch more variety in entertainment will make for a winning combination.

Edited by Flatbush Flyer

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3 hours ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

...

 

For example, while the US household income average may be in the $60k range, its east and west coasts average an additional $10k. Some major cities average more than twice your stated figure  (e.g., right here in SF =$140,000+ with cities like L.A., N.Y., and D.C. nor far behind). 

...

I think your figures are a bit off- I have seen SF household incomes cited at about $96,000 - and $75,000 for individuals.  (And, I suspect even those figures do not include the homeless who “live” in SF.)

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23 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

I think your figures are a bit off- I have seen SF household incomes cited at about $96,000 - and $75,000 for individuals.  (And, I suspect even those figures do not include the homeless who “live” in SF.)

Google is your friend. For example see the mean  household income (not the median) at https://smartasset.com/retirement/average-salary-in-san-francisco

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1 hour ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

Google is your friend. For example see the mean  household income (not the median) at https://smartasset.com/retirement/average-salary-in-san-francisco

Of course the median income figure gives a better picture of the numbers capable of affording high end cruises -  the mean in cities like SF and NY is rather skewed by a few hugely wealthy earners.

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3 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

Of course the median income figure gives a better picture of the numbers capable of affording high end cruises -  the mean in cities like SF and NY is rather skewed by a few hugely wealthy earners.

True that the median would help the big picture of potential cruisers. But, back to SF as an example: That median household income is almost $100k. I expect the same or similar in other key coastal cities. 

And many of those cities have convenient cruise ports: NYC, Boston, Seattle, San Diego, L.A. and even Miami.....  Moreover, mortgage free home-owning seniors at/above that $100k medium are plentiful. 

 

I don't see premium cruise lines abandoning THAT population. But, I do see them trying to woo each-other's current clients while also marketing more aggressively to both the 60+ and 60- kid-free "haves" now frequenting the upper end mass market lines AND the luxury lines too. 

 

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Oceania surviving may depend on whether NCL can obtain additional funding to stay afloat if cruises don’t sail for the rest of 2020. I can see Oceania and Regent Seven Seas being merged at some point since they appeal to similar clientele.

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Median income of 100k doesn't mean much in a town with some of the nation's highest taxes and a median home price of 1.3 million. If I were running a cruise line, the Bay area, and all of California, would be one of the last places I would target.  Then again, the cruise lines already know this as indicated by their relative absence on the west coast compared to the SE.  Plus, Florida has the highest number of retirees in the country. 

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3 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:
7 hours ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

 

I think your figures are a bit off- I have seen SF household incomes cited at about $96,000

Bob and I, who were certainly middle class incomes, were making more than that almost 30 years ago.

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7 minutes ago, Aquahound said:

Median income of 100k doesn't mean much in a town with some of the nation's highest taxes and a median home price of 1.3 million. If I were running a cruise line, the Bay area, and all of California, would be one of the last places I would target.  Then again, the cruise lines already know this as indicated by their relative absence on the west coast compared to the SE.  Plus, Florida has the highest number of retirees in the country. 

Which is why I said "mortgage free" homeowners. 

In any case, I stand by my original prediction that the premium lines (good value, small ships, great crew and space ratios, longer/unique itineraries and a professionally accomplished well-travelled demographic, etc)  will emerge the strongest from all that Covid-19 throws at the cruise industry.

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1 hour ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

Which is why I said "mortgage free" homeowners. 

In any case, I stand by my original prediction that the premium lines (good value, small ships, great crew and space ratios, longer/unique itineraries and a professionally accomplished well-travelled demographic, etc)  will emerge the strongest from all that Covid-19 throws at the cruise industry.

 

I don't think COVID will be a killer of any major cruise line but if it did, I'm pretty sure the mass market giants, who carry the bulk of the cruise populous, will be in a far better position to survive than the smaller less recognizable lines.  One's favorite cruise line does not equate to post-disaster survivability.  That's like saying my favorite restaurant in town, which is locally owned and attracts more "professionally accomplished" people has a better chance of surviving than the Red Lobster down the road.  Common sense says that is not true.

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7 minutes ago, Aquahound said:

 

I don't think COVID will be a killer of any major cruise line but if it did, I'm pretty sure the mass market giants, who carry the bulk of the cruise populous, will be in a far better position to survive than the smaller less recognizable lines.  One's favorite cruise line does not equate to post-disaster survivability.  That's like saying my favorite restaurant in town, which is locally owned and attracts more "professionally accomplished" people has a better chance of surviving than the Red Lobster down the road.  Common sense says that is not true.

Wow - are you in for a surprise!

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29 minutes ago, Aquahound said:

One's favorite cruise line does not equate to post-disaster survivability. 


C’mon. Don’t you know any topic can be an Oceania advertisement on this board? 😜

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2 hours ago, Aquahound said:

Median income of 100k doesn't mean much in a town with some of the nation's highest taxes and a median home price of 1.3 million. If I were running a cruise line, the Bay area, and all of California, would be one of the last places I would target.  Then again, the cruise lines already know this as indicated by their relative absence on the west coast compared to the SE.  Plus, Florida has the highest number of retirees in the country. 

The fact is, except for the short Alaska season there are very few 7 day itineraries (the bread and butter of the mass market lines) from the west coast. The Pacific coast of Mexico gets pretty tiresome;  while Canada, New England, Bermuda, the Bahamas and multiple Caribbean ports are within the 7day window from east coast ports.

 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

The fact is, except for the short Alaska season there are very few 7 day itineraries (the bread and butter of the mass market lines) from the west coast. The Pacific coast of Mexico gets pretty tiresome;  while Canada, New England, Bermuda, the Bahamas and multiple Caribbean ports are within the 7day window from east coast ports.

 

There are two coasts. And, if you can afford a cruise in the "new normal," you'll also be able to afford the airfare to either side.

BTW, Kiss many 3-7 day cruises goodbye, at least in the first few waves of restarting cruises. 

Edited by Flatbush Flyer

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32 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

There are two coasts. And, if you can afford a cruise in the "new normal," you'll also be able to afford the airfare to either side.

BTW, Kiss many 3-7 day cruises goodbye, at least in the first few waves of restarting cruises. 

Are you suggesting that California has TWO coasts? Or did you misunderstand my post?

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16 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

Are you suggesting that California has TWO coasts? Or did you misunderstand my post?

No. I'm saying the premium lines' stepped up marketing should target the "haves" on both coasts for cruises, minimally from either coast (w/wo the need for air).

 

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Posted (edited)

just curious if anyone wants to offer a guess as to when cruising will begin again.  My guess is perhaps late summer.  Just my opinion.  

Edited by jxtgreek

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37 minutes ago, jxtgreek said:

just curious if anyone wants to offer a guess as to when cruising will begin again.  My guess is perhaps late summer.  Just my opinion.  

OP you must have just started reading CC as this has been discussed ad nauseum or you are trolling.

Check Carnivals website, NO cruises until June 27th as of now. 

NCL and RCI are being a little more secretive/undecided.

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Pure, uneducated, no evidence, factless guessing on any date. Pick one. No one knows not even the cruise lines.  They'll start back when they start back.

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My guess is around the end of the latest 100 day shutdown.  (I know they can technically resume before that.). NY is on the brink of starting to decline along with most of the other hot spots.  Give it another three months and we should be in the clear for the most part. Until there is a vaccine it will never be 100% safe but they cannot BK and entire industry until it’s 100% safe. There will be changes in screening and procedures on board with possible age restrictions.  I completely anticipate cruise resuming in July.  Doesnt effect me either way as mine was cancelled and next on is scheduled in December. 

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just curious if anyone wants to offer a guess as to when cruising will begin again.  My guess is perhaps late summer.  Just my opinion.  


No one knows, but based on the CNBC interview with the Carnival CEO yesterday, they are prepared financially for no cruises in 2020. He said that cruises would resume when “social gatherings” such as attending concerts, sporting events at arenas and stadiums, etc. are allowed to resume. I don’t see any of those things happening anytime soon.

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