How many more times does RCCL suspends cruises before they say enough is enough for 2020 ?

[Husky1987]

1 hour ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Positive - as testing increases, the death rate percentage will decrease. Currently in US, it’s about 1.8%. South Korea is a little better. Common Flu is about half the current rate COVID death rate in US. 

 

Just FYI, common flu is usually a lot less than half the current 1.8% COVID rate.  Unless I'm reading it wrong, it looks like in 2018-19 flu season, the common flu death rate was about .1%  Obviously varies a bit year to year depending on severity.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

 

"CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1). "

[Milwaukee Eight]

7 minutes ago, Husky1987 said:

 

Just FYI, common flu is usually a lot less than half the current 1.8% COVID rate.  Unless I'm reading it wrong, it looks like in 2018-19 flu season, the common flu death rate was about .1%  Obviously varies a bit year to year depending on severity.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

 

"CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1). "

Maybe I read it wrong (common flu) but the death rate % (COVID)  will continue to drop once testing is commonly available. 

[grandgeezer]

4 hours ago, JAMESCC said:

Read my other posts, I gave plenty. 

Old posts are meaningless, people change their mind. It's what you say now. Still optimistic now? It might go a long way with other people getting on your bandwagon, who knows, maybe even me. After checking the news today, there was nothing to alter my opinion.

"Plan for the worst, hope for the best".

[bobmacliberty]

Good news about testing posted on one of these Coronavirus threads recently.  Abbott labs will have a test deployed next week using a machine that already exists for other testing purposes in many physician offices and urgent care facilities.  Positive results in 5 minutes and negative results in 13 minutes...If I remember correctly.

 

Found links:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/28/coronavirus-fda-authorizes-abbott-labs-fast-portable-covid-test/2932766001/

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2020/03/27/us-approves-abbott-labs-five-minute-rapid-coronavirus-test/#759e1d956086

 

Not the same as a treatment or vaccine, but hopefully will allow for better isolation than what's happening today.  

Edited March 31, 2020 by bobmacliberty

[Jimbo]

15 hours ago, Jimbo said:

Testing a Vaccine already started back on March 16th in Seattle.

https://www.aol.com/article/lifestyle/2020/03/30/who-can-get-a-coronavirus-test/23965796/#slide=7671505#fullscreen

 

After it opens click Read Captions

 

How long does testing take to get any kind of sound results? How come the President or the 2 Doctors never mention this in their Press Conferences?

Edited March 31, 2020 by Jimbo

[Roger88]

They can keep suspending it as many times as the want. I forgot the name of the cruise, but there is one cruise which was delayed like 3 times. I wonder why people are not demanding refunds or filing cases. In any case, they can pospone it as many times as they want. Be careful. It may be better to get a refund and forget about it for this year

[3shar]

On 3/30/2020 at 8:34 AM, spookwife said:

what's you opinion on July?   we booked our Alaska cruise for the end of July back in January.   final payment is due at the end of April and as of today we are waiting until then to decide one way or the other.  (Vancouver start point)  

 

FL Governor has stated the state of emergency ends on 8 May(  so far)   so I do not anticipate any  cruises out of here before 1 June.  

I just cancelled July and rebooked for next May. Cant take all the uncertainty any more. Also everyone is going to try to book for next year as they keep cancelling. Prices are higher already next june , july and august. Im sure inventory is going to start going way down too.

[Jimbo]

11 minutes ago, 3shar said:

I just cancelled July and rebooked for next May. Cant take all the uncertainty any more. Also everyone is going to try to book for next year as they keep cancelling. Prices are higher already next june , july and august. Im sure inventory is going to start going way down too.

Exactly, good move.  Cancelling and rebooking 2 or 3 months from now is a waste of time. No one is getting on a cruiseship anytime soon. Why waste time worrying about if sailing is going to go or not now, also wasting RCCL agents time by booking to soon just to have them rebook you again and again.

[JAMESCC]

1 minute ago, Jimbo said:

Exactly, good move.  Cancelling and rebooking 2 or 3 months from now is a waste of time. No one is getting on a cruiseship anytime soon. Why waste time worrying about if sailing is going to go or not now, also wasting RCCL agents time by booking to soon just to have them rebook you again and again.

I can understand that thinking. I still think we will cruise is Sept. but what you said makes sense. 

[3shar]

I think things are going to get worse and I think the extensions will keep coming until Aug/Sept

 

[Merion_Mom]

5 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:

 

And I've been called negative.😉 

 

Given the option of nothing, it is better.  A vaccine would be better but will take time.  Spacial separation, can be accomplished easily if people actually do it.  As we see in the news there are a lot of COV-IDIOTS out there. Florida has caught on, and other states will too.  Just hopefully not the hard way.  

 

IMO a national 2-4 week hold/stay in place should be mandatory and reviewed again upon the results.  One can take the "hit" now or drag out the inevitable. Otherwise what is happening in NY will occur in every state, one by one.  That is until people wisen up.  

 

Florida has NOT caught on.  https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/florida-bucks-social-distancing-trend-as-covid-19-cases-skyrocket/

 

[Gonzav]

22 hours ago, JAMESCC said:

Call me one of those "overly optimistic people". I believe cruises will start June 1 or around there. When this thing peaks in a few weeks [which is going to be painful and horrible] then the numbers will start to fall. 4 weeks of falling numbers will help calm nerves. Its all sad no matter how we look at all this. 

I sincerely hope so.  We were set to sail 4/5/20.  Canceled and rebooked for 6/20/20.  Hubby and I are healthy and in our 40's.  Daughter is almost 12.  Hubby is a grocery manager(essential)  the odds of him not catching this, are already slim to none.  Maybe by then we have more of a heard immunity.

 

[pcur]

23 hours ago, Merion_Mom said:

 

 

Peggy is smart.

 

Be like Peggy.

 

🙂 

 

Oh, Mom, I do indeed love you!!  hahahahahaha

[Yorkvillain]

#TeamPeggy

[pcur]

21 hours ago, Biker19 said:

To be fair, during none of those downturns did they have to park the whole fleet for 2+ months. The thing that may save them this time is a generally good economy and folks with short memories.

The point I was making is they made it through, regardless of what they had to do to survive.  I remember they pulled completely out of the West Coast because of the drug wars in Mexico, and they haven't been back. They have a tendency to land on their feet.  We all thought it was close to the end when we experienced the whole over-$100/barrel fiasco, and then they got sued, and then we had the garbage dumping up in Alaska.  

 

Still in business.  Their survival technique?  LOTS of cash on hand!

[alfaeric]

4 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Maybe I read it wrong (common flu) but the death rate % (COVID)  will continue to drop once testing is commonly available. 

Maybe.  But because of the lack of testing, there is certainly some people who have died of COVID19 without being tested, and therefore is not counted for.  Also, the actual influenza rate is lower than is reported- as there are probably thousands of people who are not hospitalized for complications due to the flu (and are never tested/counted)- I know I was not counted in the past.

 

But I also don't recall any time the common influenza ever overwhelmed hospital systems all over the world at the same time.  That's the part that is rather mind boggling right now.

[JAMESCC]

52 minutes ago, Gonzav said:

I sincerely hope so.  We were set to sail 4/5/20.  Canceled and rebooked for 6/20/20.  Hubby and I are healthy and in our 40's.  Daughter is almost 12.  Hubby is a grocery manager(essential)  the odds of him not catching this, are already slim to none.  Maybe by then we have more of a heard immunity.

 

Well I guess we will all find out together. I was thinking of rebooking from May, cancelled by Royal to June but no kids sail free for any cruises in June and my wife doesn't do real good in the extreme heat. We moved our Oasis cruise May 10th to Sept. 6th. Kids sail free and maybe now quite as hot in Florida/Bahamas as June. Good luck and I hope you sail. I believe you will but most people around here think I'm nuts. 😁

[dani negreanu]

10 minutes ago, alfaeric said:

But I also don't recall any time the common influenza ever overwhelmed hospital systems all over the world at the same time.

 

^+This.

Just a month ago I was berated for being of the opinion that COVID-19 is nothing like the flu -- "since I didn't remember Italy being closed due to flu...."

[A&L_Ont]

1 hour ago, Merion_Mom said:

 

Florida has NOT caught on.  https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/florida-bucks-social-distancing-trend-as-covid-19-cases-skyrocket/

 

Fools.  🤦‍♂️

[bobmacliberty]

31 minutes ago, alfaeric said:

But because of the lack of testing, there is certainly some people who have died of COVID19 without being tested, and therefore is not counted for.

 

While this is certainly possible, I'd guess that there are way, WAY more people who have had Covid-19 with few or no symptoms (and are therefore not counted as a case), than there are people who died from it but were not counted as a related death.  Is the Covid-19 morality rate the same as the flu?  Absolutely not.  Is it much lower than the current stats show?  Almost certainly.

[John&LaLa]

21 hours ago, Iamcruzin said:

really miss those live threads because even though I won't' be cruising for a while it's nice to see others enjoying themselves.

 

I tried to keep mine alive for two weeks post cruise.😉

[pyrateslife4me84]

1 hour ago, alfaeric said:

Maybe.  But because of the lack of testing, there is certainly some people who have died of COVID19 without being tested, and therefore is not counted for.  Also, the actual influenza rate is lower than is reported- as there are probably thousands of people who are not hospitalized for complications due to the flu (and are never tested/counted)- I know I was not counted in the past.

 

But I also don't recall any time the common influenza ever overwhelmed hospital systems all over the world at the same time.  That's the part that is rather mind boggling right now.

The numbers they provide for flu are an estimate of TOTAL infected. Very few are tested. So you are included in the estimate. 
 

Lancet posted an article yesterday estimating the Covid-19 death rate at closer to 0.66%. 
 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

Edited March 31, 2020 by pyrateslife4me84

[John&LaLa]

1 hour ago, A&L_Ont said:

Fools.  🤦‍♂️

 

Pretty compliant here.

Live

[steveru621]

The politicians looking for someone to 'blame' have successfully created a boogeyman in the cruise industry.  I'd hazard a guess far more people enter the country via the airlines than cruise ships.

 

There is nothing wrong with being optimistic.  I'm sure all the people that work in/for the cruise industry want to get a paycheck ASAP.  Unfortunately there will always be people that want to shut them down.

 

Why just until the end of the year?  Why not until the end of 2021, 2022?  The viruses have no time frame, why should we?

[alfaeric]

1 hour ago, bobmacliberty said:

 

While this is certainly possible, I'd guess that there are way, WAY more people who have had Covid-19 with few or no symptoms (and are therefore not counted as a case), than there are people who died from it but were not counted as a related death.  Is the Covid-19 morality rate the same as the flu?  Absolutely not.  Is it much lower than the current stats show?  Almost certainly.

Does it really matter, though?  Honestly?

 

I REALLY can't remember anytime that multiple hospitals around the world were overwhelmed by common influenza.  Last time that seems to have happened was 101 years ago with the Spanish Flu.  So even comparing this virus to the flu isn't even a close comparison relative to it's ACTUAL impact on the healthcare system.  Unless I missed an outbreak where even after a lock down, tents were set up as hospitals around the world...

 

All this downplaying of the rates, and percentages and whatever all ignores the actual reality that is going on all over the world.  How about we pay attention to reality.  Not something to panic over, for sure.  But it's equally not something to sugar coat- even with a light dusting.