What will post covid 19 cruising look like....?

[cscurlock]

4 hours ago, TAD2005 said:

Vaccinations are only useful for the current strain of a particular virus.   Viruses mutate constantly.   The vaccine you got this year is useless or will have little effect for next year's mutation.   This strain of coronavirus, COVID-19,  originated in Wuhan, China in late November 2019.   The medical community is saying that any vaccine that will be tested, approved and widely available will not show up until spring or summer 2021.   It takes 18 months, even with an accelerated  fast track program to get a viable vaccine ready for market.   In the meantime, COVID-19 will mutate and become COVID-21 and the vaccine for the 19 strain will not be as effective.   

From the CDC in 2009 concerning the H1N1 pandemic.  "There was concern in early-2009 that, should a second, deadlier wave of this new H1N1 strain appear during the northern autumn/winter of 2009, producing pandemic vaccines ahead of time could turn out to be a serious waste of resources as the vaccine might not be effective against a mutation, and there would also be a shortage of seasonal vaccines"

So asking people to show a certificate for a COVID-19 vaccine which won't be available until early 2021 if we're very lucky,  for a cruise in late 2020 will not be possible.   And for cruises in 2021, showing a COVID-19 certificate may be useless if the virus mutates.   

On one of the many reports on tv, one of them said this particular type of virus doesn't seem to mutate much if at all.  Its not like the flu.   Vaccines do take a while.   But that is the best hope for guaranteeing a level of immunity that the cruise lines would start accepting passengers without fear of having what happened to previous/current ships. People who have the antibodies from getting the virus and are immune are also acceptable as far as safe passengers. 

[KirkNC]

11 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

This is true of the flu virus, but not necessarily true of all viruses. The coronavirus is from a different family of viruses from influenza -- we don't really know whether it will mutate significantly or not.

 

Measles is an example of a virus that does not mutate significantly and people tend to get it only once; afterwards they are immune. We also have a very good preventive vaccine for it.

 

I'll get in trouble for this because I can't remember the source but I recently read that they have already mapped eight different varieties of corona.  They said they were not materially different but different none the less.

[cbr663]

12 hours ago, Petronillus said:

.......

I hope it's not so, but I fear that we are witnessing the Hindenburg disaster of the cruise industry.

I fear the same thing.

 

Just today I received an update from Air Canada that they will now be re-seating people in the cabins to have as few people sitting next to each other.  This is a temporary change now, but could it evolve and could it spread to other modes of travel like a cruise ship?  This is the question that few people seem to be addressing - how would the cruise industry look with significantly fewer passengers on board?  How does the current model with larger ships survive with significantly fewer passengers?  It's obvious that fewer passengers mean higher cruise fares, but what about the ship experience itself?

 

Could we see the elimination of large dining rooms with more smaller restaurants?  Could we see the complete elimination of the buffet?  Could the large entertainment venues be eliminated?

 

And what about moving people on and off the ships?  If, as I mentioned earlier, changes are brought in with specific boarding and disembarkation times being strictly enforced to discourage large crowds, how will this process affect the experience at ports of call?  How will this affect all the tours, for instance?  Is it even possible to have tours if it will take longer to get passengers off the ship and then longer to get them back on?  Will this require longer port times, which while may sound great for a particular port, but could also mean a less number of ports on a particular cruise?

 

Can the cruise industry reasonably survive and prosper as it is right now?  I am not so certain of the main stream lines.  The smaller luxury lines are certainly poised to do so.

[Fredric22]

Sorry, but I don't think most of the recommendations here are practical at all.  Cruises will start up again when the virus has been suppressed and there is no sign of local spread.  When they do start up, you can count on increased screening (temperature checks) and updated medical forms.  As far as on board ships, you will see more attempts to get passengers to use hand sanitizer and more hand washing stations. The buffets will probably move to assisted service for at least a period of time.  Ships will also be equipped with Covid-19 testing capabilities.  If testing capabilities become cheap and quick, all crew members may be tested periodically or at the very least when they start their contracts. Lastly, I can definitely see older ships being retired early and ships on the drawing board (construction not yet started) will be delayed.  Once the virus re-surfaces in the Fall/Winter, our best hope is there are some very good treatments that make this disease outcomes no worse than the flu. COVID-19 will be feared less and viewed as a treatable disease. Of course, the development of a vaccine for use by the 2021 flu season will help and you can bet that all crew members will be required to get it before starting their contracts.

 

Ship building companies will undoubtedly offer some deals to sweeten the pot to continue to get new builds out there, otherwise they too will be facing major challenges.  I think the next 18 months will be difficult for the industry, but in time, people will forget this period and fears about cruising will gradually subside.  The next big world event will happen and COVID-19 will become a thing of the past.  

[AncientWanderer]

They will probably, also, completely do away with enrichment/educational speakers.  These have been on the wane anyhow, and I seriously doubt they'll be a priority for the next wave of cruisers.

[HamOp]

 

 

What will post covid 19 cruising look like....?😁

[drowelf]

8 hours ago, KirkNC said:

I'll get in trouble for this because I can't remember the source but I recently read that they have already mapped eight different varieties of corona.  They said they were not materially different but different none the less.

I saw the same thing, it was a CNN Website article. Unfortunately give the amount of updates on the site, I can not find the URL for it. 

[gatour]

19 hours ago, Petronillus said:

I hope it's not so, but I fear that we are witnessing the Hindenburg disaster of the cruise industry.

There was this ship called the Titanic.  It sunk with thousands of lost of life.  Did Transatlantic transportation end.  No they came up with new rules and regulations and TA crossings continued.

[gatour]

On 3/31/2020 at 3:21 PM, cbr663 said:

Cruise travel is impacted on multiple aspects with regard to travel.  Passengers travel from all over the world using different modes of travel to start a cruise.  On our last cruise for instance, I thought how wonderful was it that here we were in Norway my wife and I, two Canadians, met fellow passengers from Australia.  From a virus transmission risk though, I can see now that maybe it wasn't so wonderful.

 

So, it may be possible that cruises will be limited to passengers from certain areas.  It may be possible that the number of passengers on a ship may be greatly reduced.  It may be possible that the venues that are offered may need to be amended so less people gather.  Think of dining areas and entertainment areas.  It may be possible that the entire way that a ship is cleaned is changed - think more crew.  It may be that ships are required to change their medical capacities on board.  It may be possible that the way that we board ships may change - no more hundreds of passengers arriving early and waiting in large groups to board and instead, specific boarding times that are strictly enforced.  Same thing could happen when visiting ports and loading tenders - specific times allocated to passengers that are strictly enforced and no more wall to wall people in tight corridors all waiting to be the first off.

Lets extrapolate this to other activities.

 

What about concerts.  20 years ago when I was first long distancing dating my wife.  I lived in Omaha NE, while she lived in Jacksonville, FL.  We traded flying back and forth.  One time she flew in and we (along with several of my Omaha friends) went to a U2 concert in Kansas City.  Very similiar to a cruise ship many people packed together in stands.  Many people standing in line at the concession stands etc.  So should my now wife should be denied entry to the concert since came from Florida?  Should I and my friends be denied entry since we came from Omaha?

 

What about sporting events?  Same scenario, especially in regards to major sporting events.  Besides our Super Bowl, there are things like the Olympics, World Cup soccer.  The latter two attract people from all over the world.

 

So yes there probably will be changes, but restricting cruises to people from certain geographic location as an ongoing "solution" probably won't happen.

[gatour]

In regards to vaccination requirements.  The scientists are still working on understanding the virus.  They don't know if this will be a one time thing.  Or will it occur every winter like the flu.  If it occurs every year, and a vaccine is developed.  Will it be a one time shot or will it have to be yearly shot.

 

It is to early to determine what may be required in order to board a cruise ship in the future. 

[Cap-n Andy]

There could be a reduction or elimination of tender ports.  You may have to reserve a specific time on the tender. All aboard will be several hours before sail away.

 

Private Islands are another potential problem.   Currently, you have people form more than one ship sharing the same island in close proximity. It could become like an Antarctica cruise I was on.  Only a certain number or people were allowed ashore at one time.  Once that number was reached, nobody was allowed off until people came back on.  Passengers were given a time window they could be ashore.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Cap-n Andy

[jimdee3636]

Assuming there is a future for the cruise industry, expect to pay more for whatever cruises are offered---a lot more. Virtually all of the proposals and predictions listed in this and similar threads would be expensive to implement. For better or worse, you won't be seeing many $599 a person deals for 7-night cruises.

 

But on the plus side the ships themselves should be less congested. (Will cruise lines continue to allow families to cram four or five people into 180 sq. ft. cabins? Will the $599 passenger still want to sail if the price jumps to $1099? Will there be as many scooters clogging up the aisles if health and fitness standards are implemented?). 

[cbr663]

11 minutes ago, jimdee3636 said:

Assuming there is a future for the cruise industry, expect to pay more for whatever cruises are offered---a lot more. Virtually all of the proposals and predictions listed in this and similar threads would be expensive to implement. For better or worse, you won't be seeing many $599 a person deals for 7-night cruises.

 

But on the plus side the ships themselves should be less congested. (Will cruise lines continue to allow families to cram four or five people into 180 sq. ft. cabins? Will the $599 passenger still want to sail if the price jumps to $1099? Will there be as many scooters clogging up the aisles if health and fitness standards are implemented?). 

No doubt about it that there will be increased costs.  Significant costs, in some cases.

 

It's difficult for us to imagine what may happen as we have never lived through a period like this.  I have spent the last week or so reading a lot of research on the 1918 flu pandemic.  Lots of similar attributes to what we are experiencing now with social isolation and business shut down.  Many academic researches are still studying the impacts of that time even today.  One thing I read is that it took an average of 4 years after the pandemic for people to begin to feel comfortable getting back to normal activities.  So it may be quite some time before we see the end result of this.

[Sue from Canada]

I can see no more SBC and no bringing on board of any beverage (soda, water, wine, spirits).  And prices for solo cruisers will be double for any and all cruises.  Also, you can forget a chocolate (or two) on your pillow at night, no bathroom toiletries (unless you want to pay because you forgot to bring your own).  No more hot munchies at happy hour and no more happy hour discounts.  Forget lobster night unless you want to pay.  I could go on 😩

[Sir PMP]

Definitely no more smoking!!

[SteelMagnolia9]

I don’t see cruising resuming until 2021.

 

Itineraries will be limited in 2021. Cruise lines will reduce capacity on ships and prices will increase. I can foresee Canada, Alaska and Caribbean cruises initially being open for booking to only the North American market. 
 

The ‘upscale’ lines with the smaller ships will do well as their demographic will still be able to afford to cruise. Expect to see in ads how a particular cruise line will care for your health and wellness while onboard. 
 

It will be a different experience for the first year or two.

[Wakepatrol]

On 3/30/2020 at 10:42 PM, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

 

     "Business as usual" just isn't a realistic goal anywhere in the forseeable future. And cruising is, I'm afraid, going to take a ferocious hit.     

Yes you’re absolutely right. The cruise ships are going to recoup and make money. No more $299 fares for a 7 day cruise. No more  taking on 29 cases of water and 17 cases of soda. They will need to sell you theirs for they are a business, they will sell you wine also.

[wearesiamese]

Well y'all can help bail the cruise lines out It isn't my responsibility to make them profitable or not. I won

't pat increased fares to help them if they don't make changes to improve service and include more services/enrichment etc  Why should I? I am perfectly fine with air/land vacations where my business frankly is more appreciated the cruise lines(or they would not have been cutting back on entertainment and things that really don't cost much money but are appreciated by the passengers-Look at what a big deal it is to some people re pillow chocolates etc? Enough to be mentioned but one of the first things to go-even on Crystal, about 5 years ago. I  will wait it out and continue to take my vacations by air or even  by train , calling main stream lines'(especially) bluff re raising prices-The demand for cruises is definitely elastic , for most cruisers If they think we cruisers will pay any price to cruise, with any more cuts to services and entertainment/enrichment ,they have another thing coming

P.S If anyone really thinks the cruise lines are going to go under,you are not getting it.The worst case scenario is some of the companies may have to sell to other bigger pocket companies, and I don't think that is necessarily a bad thing

Edited April 2, 2020 by wearesiamese

[Se4deb]

On 3/31/2020 at 12:40 PM, theodoru said:

That would be the best, simplest solution. Or perhaps a simple test for antibodies would be available.

Not sure there are many Drs that would sign such a verification. However it is not unusual for countries to require certain vaccinations, or yellow fever.  I do believe there will be changed and all of them will cost$$$.  The most costly will be more crew members, prepackaged/plated Lido selections, new medical protocals, less entertainment, and probably fewer short cruise s with fewer ports and possibly the elimination of non ship controlled excursions.  Essentially, I believe that to survive and rebuild the brand, the cruise lines will need to control passengers and who has access to the passengers. 

[JudithLynne]

Some very good insightful thoughts here.  Many of you feel that the cruise industry may be up and running, with changes, by 2021.  Also that cruising may be more expensive to pay for these changes.  It makes me wonder if this would be a good time to book a cruise for 2021.  We thinking of making another Alaska cruise next summer and I am now wondering if this may be a smart time to book.

[Sea42]

On 3/31/2020 at 7:13 PM, rj42 said:

-No muster drill, unless it's done in shifts in the theater, where people can preserve space. There's never been an actual lifeboat evacuation that I know of, and the biggest danger to the ship now and passengers is from being physically close.

Um, Costa Concordia🙄

[Sea42]

On 3/31/2020 at 7:13 PM, rj42 said:

 

Duplicate Post

Edited April 9, 2020 by Sea42
Duplicate Post

[Mary229]

I think river cruising will add market share.  At least you can get off of the vessel if you are river cruising and from the traveller's point of view that is important.  No one wants to emulate Homer (now that I think of it a few of you might😁).  

To my knowledge it has always been countries that require proof of vaccination and I am sure Covid will be added to the list. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by Mary229

[ABoatNerd]

The future of cruising is highly depended upon the ports - at least for people who cruise because of the destinations (me).

 

If there is a reduction in porting opportunities, time in ports and or increased restrictions while in port - then cruising is finished for me.

 

It is a cost-benefit analysis approach I use, and the financial and non financial costs of cruising were quickly overtaking the benefits - and this was before the virus. 

 

There are other travel configurations out there. I suspect many cruisers are evaluating river cruises as noted above and me and my group are pouring over the Globus travel options for the future, amongst other choices.

 

Even after the virus is history, cruising had better watch out, they have taken their guests for granted for almost a decade.