It's even worse than we thought

[npcl]

27 minutes ago, Cruise Raider said:

 

That's what I read, too.  And, they pulled all cruises out of San Francisco for the remainder of 2020.  I'm not holding out too much hope ... but, I'm also staying healthy, so there is that!!  

I read that Carnival cruise line canceled  SF cruises for 2020, did not see anything about  all of the other  lines under Carnival Corp.

Edited April 3, 2020 by npcl

[Cruise Raider]

1 minute ago, npcl said:

I read that Carnival cruise line canceled  SF cruises for 2020, did not see anything about  all of the other  lines under Carnival Corp.

 

Yes, just carnival.  

[Roberto256]

52 minutes ago, Cruise Raider said:

In January, I thought I won the lottery because I got a move over offer.  Then, my April cruise was canceled ... still ok and I booked a trip to Vegas to take its place.  hahaha!!  Well, Vegas shut down  and now, my May cruise will most definitely be canceled.

 

You can buy carnival stock.

 

New shooter coming out!!!

 

[memoak]

Carnival does not sail all that much from SF. Princess sails much more from there and they have not been canceled. Just cancelled Alaskan cruise for August and am being hopeful for 3 weeks of cruising in November and December. Keeping folingerd crossed

[Cruise Raider]

10 minutes ago, Roberto256 said:

 

You can buy carnival stock.

 

New shooter coming out!!!

 

 

I already bought as much as I am willing to risk.  

[Cruise Raider]

8 minutes ago, memoak said:

Carnival does not sail all that much from SF. Princess sails much more from there and they have not been canceled. Just cancelled Alaskan cruise for August and am being hopeful for 3 weeks of cruising in November and December. Keeping folingerd crossed

 

I am still waiting for them to cancel my May Alaska cruise.  I'm positive they will. I just found out that Glacier Bay and the Railroad have shut down until July ... possibly longer.  I am hanging on to my August sailing up to Alaska .. it's for a special birthday.  If that one is canceled as well ... I will then find something else to do.  Right now, I have too much money tied up with Princess in five separate sailings and gift cards .. not sure if they are being flexible with those FCCs so will  wait for them to cancel.  I am not expecting anything other than a refund but I would like to get  that back.  

[ontheweb]

7 minutes ago, Cruise Raider said:

 

I am still waiting for them to cancel my May Alaska cruise.  I'm positive they will. I just found out that Glacier Bay and the Railroad have shut down until July ... possibly longer.  I am hanging on to my August sailing up to Alaska .. it's for a special birthday.  If that one is canceled as well ... I will then find something else to do.  Right now, I have too much money tied up with Princess in five separate sailings and gift cards .. not sure if they are being flexible with those FCCs so will  wait for them to cancel.  I am not expecting anything other than a refund but I would like to get  that back.  

Refunds are going to take a LONG TIME. We just cancelled today our July Princess cruise because there are just too many ifs. Will we be able to fly back and forth to London? Will Norway open the ports they have closed? And even after reading today that the National Express in England is suspending operations, can we get back and forth from Heathrow Airport and London? And will they demand a doctor's letter for me being over 70?

 

Anyway, the TA said that they are still processing March refunds, so we should expect it to take a long time before our July refundable deposit goes back to our credit card.

[Sunwanabe]

58 minutes ago, opshannon said:

I wish I could be the kind of person who thinks this article is overblown and based on foolish panic. But I cannot reconcile in my mind, using the information that's available to all of us, how this is all going to go away in a month or two and life will return to normal. The data just doesn't suggest that. Until there is a vaccine, there are going to be outbreaks anywhere people gather, be it cruise ships, sports stadiums, or schools. We know that a vaccine is at least 12-18 months away. I admire people who are optimistic, but I don't see where that's coming from in the data.

Well said. A miracle would be needed for any sort of cruising this year. Unfortunately the stark reality is upon us. 

[azbirdmom]

Here's the 8k for CCL and the uncertainty about future cruising is clear:  https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/3b413b03-e345-4779-9e3f-143a9241eee8?fbclid=IwAR1bw5Xhf6zKqIgUbuPT2MlXfnpVNzhheuMnpC-ppbQ6Ap5ndHrUOPhOv40

[franktown]

7 minutes ago, azbirdmom said:

Here's the 8k for CCL and the uncertainty about future cruising is clear:  https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/3b413b03-e345-4779-9e3f-143a9241eee8?fbclid=IwAR1bw5Xhf6zKqIgUbuPT2MlXfnpVNzhheuMnpC-ppbQ6Ap5ndHrUOPhOv40

Thanks azbirdmom for posting the 8k. 

 

[AF-1]

One the virus is tamed; the cruise industry will be re-shaped.  Other countries may put certain restrictions on the ships

[npcl]

3 minutes ago, AF-1 said:

One the virus is tamed; the cruise industry will be re-shaped.  Other countries may put certain restrictions on the ships

For that matter not too sure about relationships between the cruise lines and some of our ports.

 

Certainly Australia is not happy with them.

[pms4104]

2 hours ago, Mackenzie1 said:

Yikes!  Carnival is burning through $1 billion per month with it’s ships not sailing!  I hope that’s not our refund money. 

Where do you think that $1 billion/month is coming from?  Isn't like they can just print more cash.

[eclue]

2 hours ago, opshannon said:

I wish I could be the kind of person who thinks this article is overblown and based on foolish panic. But I cannot reconcile in my mind, using the information that's available to all of us, how this is all going to go away in a month or two and life will return to normal. The data just doesn't suggest that. Until there is a vaccine, there are going to be outbreaks anywhere people gather, be it cruise ships, sports stadiums, or schools. We know that a vaccine is at least 12-18 months away. I admire people who are optimistic, but I don't see where that's coming from in the data.

If you listen to Dr Osterholm from the U of Minnesota - expert in the field - he minces no words....his comment today was that the Spanish Flu of 1918 lasted until 1920 gives us pause to think realistically....Hoping for a shorter isolation period but looking realistically.....WE will sail again but I do not think it will be this year.

 

[Mackenzie1]

1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

Refunds are going to take a LONG TIME. We just cancelled today our July Princess cruise because there are just too many ifs. Will we be able to fly back and forth to London? Will Norway open the ports they have closed? And even after reading today that the National Express in England is suspending operations, can we get back and forth from Heathrow Airport and London? And will they demand a doctor's letter for me being over 70?

 

Anyway, the TA said that they are still processing March refunds, so we should expect it to take a long time before our July refundable deposit goes back to our credit card.

 

At least Princess is processing March refunds. Let’s keep our fingers crossed.  

[frugaltravel]

5 hours ago, Potstech said:

Speculation, Speculation and then more speculation. No one will know until this is over with.

Especially when it comes from The Points Guy blog 😞

[bluesea321]

37 minutes ago, npcl said:

For that matter not too sure about relationships between the cruise lines and some of our ports.

Certainly Australia is not happy with them.

 

You think...

https://cruisepassenger.com.au/sick-crew-member-taken-off-ruby-princess/

[Mackenzie1]

11 minutes ago, pms4104 said:

Where do you think that $1 billion/month is coming from?  Isn't like they can just print more cash.

Here’s where Carnival’s cash is coming from:  Carnival was in a strong financial condition before all of this happened, and this week,  the company sought up to $6 billion in  additional financing from a sale of bonds, notes, and stock. 

[tanyaewa]

It’s not the cruise industry but the Hyatt Ziva in Cabo San Lucas, MX just posted  policy cancelling all reservations until October 14.  The first of many I think.....

My guess is we will see this across the board

 

 

[tntornadox]

To me it reads that certain ships will be laid up. We already knew that, with the Alaska season pretty much being done. They'll also likely lay up any other ships due to operate in 'closed' areas of the globe. I'd say they'll reopen with the Caribbean then go from there.

[npcl]

32 minutes ago, pms4104 said:

Where do you think that $1 billion/month is coming from?  Isn't like they can just print more cash.

After looking at the 10Q, after their current money raising effort they may have between 4-5k to fund operations.  The can probably get their monthly cost a ways below 1 billion/month.  In their release with their recent bond sale they said that they had enough to last a year.

Edited April 3, 2020 by npcl

[pms4104]

27 minutes ago, Mackenzie1 said:

Here’s where Carnival’s cash is coming from:  Carnival was in a strong financial condition before all of this happened, and this week,  the company sought up to $6 billion in  additional financing from a sale of bonds, notes, and stock. 

This $6 billion is in addition to the $3 billion credit line they tapped into a week or so ago to enhance CCL liquidity. 

 

Anybody's guess what's in the future, long and short term

[Mackenzie1]

19 minutes ago, npcl said:

After looking at the 10Q, after their current money raising effort they may have between 4-5k to fund operations.  The can probably get their monthly cost a ways below 1 billion/month.  In their release with their recent bond sale they said that they had enough to last a year.

Thanks. It helps knowing that. 

[Tapi]

1 hour ago, eclue said:

his comment today was that the Spanish Flu of 1918 lasted until 1920 gives us pause to think realistically...

 

I’m truly hopeful that there have been enough advances in medicine during the last 100 years to prevent a repeat of the 1918 pandemic. 🤞🏼

[npcl]

1 hour ago, pms4104 said:

This $6 billion is in addition to the $3 billion credit line they tapped into a week or so ago to enhance CCL liquidity. 

 

Anybody's guess what's in the future, long and short term

Yes but in the 10Q they have far more current debt than current cash.  If you run the number, including an estimate (from CCL) that they are getting 45% of customers taking FCC instead of cash refunds you get around 4 billion left after considering the 2.8 from the revolving line of credit (that is what remained when they tapped it) plus the 6.25 billion from the recent offering.