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Carnival "long term impact on appeal of our brands"

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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/31/carnival-cruises-seeks-6bn-funding-amid-coronavirus-fallout

 

In a downbeat statement to the stock market announcing its refinancing plans, Carnival listed the ways in which the spread of Covid-19 was affecting its business. It said the “resulting illness and loss of life… could have a long-term impact on the appeal of our brands, which would diminish demand for vacations on our vessels.”

Future cruises, when restarted, would likely be subject to “heightened governmental regulations and travel bans and restrictions” which would limit customers and ports of call.

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The limiting the ports of call once the US allows ships again is my main concern right now. Just a few short weeks ago it was, "Don't let anyone from China or Italy here!" We now have the most cases by FAR. How long will other countries be saying, "Don't let those Americans in here!"? Not to mention most of the Caribbean is several weeks behind us in the "curve", so they won't want people coming in during their peaks. 

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4 minutes ago, bahacca said:

The limiting the ports of call once the US allows ships again is my main concern right now. Just a few short weeks ago it was, "Don't let anyone from China or Italy here!" We now have the most cases by FAR. How long will other countries be saying, "Don't let those Americans in here!"? Not to mention most of the Caribbean is several weeks behind us in the "curve", so they won't want people coming in during their peaks. 

This is very likely and why I will be canceling my June cruise to the Caribbean unless Carnival beats me to the punch 😣

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It would be nice if the government can allow the cruise lines to start doing the cruise to no wheres cruises again. that might help resume cruising . i will not be mind going on these types of cruises  if they are offered again

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59 minutes ago, bahacca said:

The limiting the ports of call once the US allows ships again is my main concern right now. Just a few short weeks ago it was, "Don't let anyone from China or Italy here!" We now have the most cases by FAR. How long will other countries be saying, "Don't let those Americans in here!"? Not to mention most of the Caribbean is several weeks behind us in the "curve", so they won't want people coming in during their peaks. 

You bring up many good points.  I live in NYC and only sail out of NYC.  But, I can't imagine anyone coming here just to go on a cruise.  Or, ports letting in "people who have been in NYC" during the past  (time period).

I switched from a July Radiance to an Oct Sunrise...but I'm gonna see how things are in July before I make a final decision.

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What make the most BUSINESS sense? If I'm Carnival, Waiting till July or September and filing Chapter 11. Keep all the money that cruisers have put on their vacation. Streamline the company and come back leaner. It will piss of 100-200 thousand people, but they will eventually forget. They'll have to, their money is gone. 

 

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Posted (edited)

Hi,


I love cruising. I love to travel on “land vacations”. Right now NYC is getting the worst, with NOLA right behind. Too many people passing away due to this virus in both cities.😔😢
 

Do I blame NYC?

Do I blame NOLA?
No. No.


Will I continue to cruise ....

To NYC?

To NOLA? 

Yes. Yes.
I don’t play the blame game on the location of the Virus.  
 

After My first experience with someone close to me dying, I remember waking up the next morning absolutely devastated! My niece & nephew we’re only 9 & 12. They woke up without a Mom.

 

I woke up, they woke up and I was furious because life HAD gone on! How could it?


That was over 30 years ago. 
 

It was a life lesson for me.

 

So, yeah, IF I’m alive, I will continue to do that that which brings me JOY. 

🛳❤️

Bobbi 

 

Edited by Markmom18

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55 minutes ago, MRVEGAS711 said:

What make the most BUSINESS sense? If I'm Carnival, Waiting till July or September and filing Chapter 11. Keep all the money that cruisers have put on their vacation. Streamline the company and come back leaner. It will piss of 100-200 thousand people, but they will eventually forget. They'll have to, their money is gone. 

 

I think you're right. I'm not paying any more on my cruises, until the final payment dates. 

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Here is some hope for those who have doubt:

This is the same cruise line that had a fire in their engine room that caused one of their ships to drift and passengers were having to go do their business in buckets on deck and they ran out of food that people were being served bread with mayo. That whole fiasco made the news, but people still came back.

Costa Concordia is a subsidiary of Carnival Cruise lines and we know what happened but again, it made the news and people came back.

I think the only time people will stop going on a ship if something happens like with Boeing’s issue with their planes crashing. It was a sure fire way of losing confidence in people flying on one of their 737 Max’s but so long as ships were not the ones directly responsible for this covid19 outbreak, people will still come back.


Sent from my iPhone using Forums

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Can't agree with the idea that the mass market will stay with them.

Diehard loyalists will be back. But the days of an ever-expanding fleet sailing at or near capacity are over. 
 

Corpses came off Golden and Zaandam and Ruby and Coral and Diamond. Let that sink in for a minute.

 

Their stories will get told. The stories from the survivors will get told. The lawsuits and Senate hearings will happen.

 

 

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8 hours ago, twins_to_alaska said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/31/carnival-cruises-seeks-6bn-funding-amid-coronavirus-fallout

 

In a downbeat statement to the stock market announcing its refinancing plans, Carnival listed the ways in which the spread of Covid-19 was affecting its business. It said the “resulting illness and loss of life… could have a long-term impact on the appeal of our brands, which would diminish demand for vacations on our vessels.”

Future cruises, when restarted, would likely be subject to “heightened governmental regulations and travel bans and restrictions” which would limit customers and ports of call.

I could see this happening as it's already happening to me and causing me to sway some of my future bookings. In terms of cleanliness and hygiene, this really brought to my attention one area that a competitor performs much better than my preferred brand within Carnival Corporation: Princess.

 

Even though this competitor is starting to see Covid-19 outbreaks among the crew, they do have some rather exceptional reminders about general cleanliness and proper hygiene such as hand washing. It's very welcoming to see the initiative taken by Royal Caribbean International to have fun kid-friendly videos to remind the importance of hand washing played at the muster drill and throughout various times of the cruise. When reinforced by singers and musicians at the entrance of the buffet singing familiar tunes with the lyrics replaced as different forms of "washy washy" combined with convenient and open hand washing stations, it does get a large majority of passengers in the habit of hand washing. These videos are fun, easy to follow and capture the attention of multiple types of audiences with their flashy colors and catchy tunes.

 

On Princess, my preferred line, they generally only have one sink at the entrances to the buffet which is usually being used or is hidden out of the way (out of sight; out of mind) and a single Purell station at the entrance to the Horizon Court. Despite having an employee stationed next to it, Princess always seems to have an issue confronting passengers and generally doesn't push as much as a certain competitor. They really limit their communication to a single message in the Princess Patter and a brief message in the embarkation paperwork to suggest ways to prevent norovirus. Purell only works when combined with proper hand washing procedures. 

 

It's something small but this is something I've noticed a competitor is doing much better. In the near future, I would feel more comfortable sailing on Royal Caribbean over Princess simply due to this.

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10 hours ago, bahacca said:

The limiting the ports of call once the US allows ships again is my main concern right now. Just a few short weeks ago it was, "Don't let anyone from China or Italy here!" We now have the most cases by FAR. How long will other countries be saying, "Don't let those Americans in here!"? Not to mention most of the Caribbean is several weeks behind us in the "curve", so they won't want people coming in during their peaks. 

 

This is exactly how my husband feels. And watching how a lot of American's are still acting in these times 

 

Am I bummed they canceled my 40th birthday cruise from Venice? You bet!! I also have airfare booked, but according to Air Canada our flights are scheduled to resume June 3rd. Will they? Who knows! But I did plan out a whole 22 land trip to Italy, Spain and France for that time all with "pay on arrival" hotel rooms with 24 hr cancellation policies.  If that backup plan fails... I will either spend 12 days at an all inclusive in Mexico if it's feasible travel wise. If my back-up plan's back-up plan fails I will plan something amazing with the $$ for 2022, as we rebooked Carnival for October 2021. 

 

Then again, I am a die-hard traveler. I get it from my mom who has had 3 Princess cruises canceled now (SE Asia, Fjords and Alaska) and has 2 more booked for next year. I also get from her.. hey they keep paying me because of this! 

 

As for Carnival going completely under with a Chapter 7? That won't happen, a court would have to approve of them selling off all of their assets to pay debt. Carnival PLC owns 109 of the 314 ocean ships sailing. There would be no market for them to sell off assets to. Chapter 13 maybe. But that doesn't mean going out of business and not offering services. Also all of their $ raising wasn't because they were in dire straights if you read all the reports. It was so they could safely have full operational capital and debts covered for 18 MONTHS if they have no revenue in that time. That would mean no bookings, not just no sailings for 18 months. 

 

Car accidents kill about 1.25 million people a year and we still drive. Life will go on and people will still want to see the world in different ways, including cruises. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, xDisconnections said:

I could see this happening as it's already happening to me and causing me to sway some of my future bookings. In terms of cleanliness and hygiene, this really brought to my attention one area that a competitor performs much better than my preferred brand within Carnival Corporation: Princess.

 

Even though this competitor is starting to see Covid-19 outbreaks among the crew, they do have some rather exceptional reminders about general cleanliness and proper hygiene such as hand washing. It's very welcoming to see the initiative taken by Royal Caribbean International to have fun kid-friendly videos to remind the importance of hand washing played at the muster drill and throughout various times of the cruise. When reinforced by singers and musicians at the entrance of the buffet singing familiar tunes with the lyrics replaced as different forms of "washy washy" combined with convenient and open hand washing stations, it does get a large majority of passengers in the habit of hand washing. These videos are fun, easy to follow and capture the attention of multiple types of audiences with their flashy colors and catchy tunes.

 

On Princess, my preferred line, they generally only have one sink at the entrances to the buffet which is usually being used or is hidden out of the way (out of sight; out of mind) and a single Purell station at the entrance to the Horizon Court. Despite having an employee stationed next to it, Princess always seems to have an issue confronting passengers and generally doesn't push as much as a certain competitor. They really limit their communication to a single message in the Princess Patter and a brief message in the embarkation paperwork to suggest ways to prevent norovirus. Purell only works when combined with proper hand washing procedures. 

 

It's something small but this is something I've noticed a competitor is doing much better. In the near future, I would feel more comfortable sailing on Royal Caribbean over Princess simply due to this.

There is no doubt that Princess will have to fight a Stigma associated with the aftermath and your comments on washy easy strike a note as well.  My guess is at the very least, there will be aspects of cruising that will be significantly changed forever.

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12 hours ago, Markmom18 said:

Hi,


I love cruising. I love to travel on “land vacations”. Right now NYC is getting the worst, with NOLA right behind. Too many people passing away due to this virus in both cities.😔😢
 

Do I blame NYC?

Do I blame NOLA?
No. No.


Will I continue to cruise ....

To NYC?

To NOLA? 

Yes. Yes.
I don’t play the blame game on the location of the Virus.  
 

After My first experience with someone close to me dying, I remember waking up the next morning absolutely devastated! My niece & nephew we’re only 9 & 12. They woke up without a Mom.

 

I woke up, they woke up and I was furious because life HAD gone on! How could it?


That was over 30 years ago. 
 

It was a life lesson for me.

 

So, yeah, IF I’m alive, I will continue to do that that which brings me JOY. 

🛳❤️

Bobbi 

 

Well said 

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Will things ever be the exact same? Probably not. We're also in a recession now, so the short-term won't look so pretty.

 

However, let's ask this again in the future. I have a hard time picturing them having a tough time attracting cruisers once the virus is no longer a concern, and Carnival throws a bunch of stuff at the wall to make it enticing. Whether it's new venues, entertainment, cheaper drinks, etc. I think most of us will be there.

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Have completed 23 cruises and all were with Carnival so you can tell I am a Carnival fan.  I really like cruising.  I really like Carnival.   I am concerned, however, that Carnival will have a tough time with this situation and may or may not survive.  There is no way of telling at this point since we can't say for certain even how long this situation will last and that is an important factor.  It is all guessing.  I have a Carnival cruise booked for January 9, 2021 and even this far out I wonder if it will take place.  To make matters worse, I have $1,300 in Carnival gift cards which would be useless if Carnival goes under.  So I watch all the news casts which usually begin with figures on how many people died last night with the virus and how things can only get worse.  That does not help.  Todays news added another factor like maybe we will have to wear face masks on the next cruise.  I know that is not funny but it beats despair.

 

So you can see I do not have the answer.  I doubt any one else does at this point.  Like the stock market with its ups and down, I hope the worst is nearly over and things can only get better.

 

 

 

 

     

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Once cruising does start again for ALL cruise lines (not just the Carnival brand), and an inoculation for Covid-19 has been developed and approved, I foresee passengers and crew members needing proof that they have had the shot prior to boarding. It could easily be a year before the cruise lines, as well as air travel, have fully recovered from this pandemic. The cruise industry will recover, but it won't be any time soon. We just have to be patient. 

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1 hour ago, richfret said:

Have completed 23 cruises and all were with Carnival so you can tell I am a Carnival fan.  I really like cruising.  I really like Carnival.   I am concerned, however, that Carnival will have a tough time with this situation and may or may not survive.  There is no way of telling at this point since we can't say for certain even how long this situation will last and that is an important factor.  It is all guessing.  I have a Carnival cruise booked for January 9, 2021 and even this far out I wonder if it will take place.  To make matters worse, I have $1,300 in Carnival gift cards which would be useless if Carnival goes under.  So I watch all the news casts which usually begin with figures on how many people died last night with the virus and how things can only get worse.  That does not help.  Todays news added another factor like maybe we will have to wear face masks on the next cruise.  I know that is not funny but it beats despair.

 

So you can see I do not have the answer.  I doubt any one else does at this point.  Like the stock market with its ups and down, I hope the worst is nearly over and things can only get better.

 

 

 

 

     

From a pure financial aspect, I would wager Carnival is in much better position than the other two, with NCL being in the worst position.  You are correct, we just do not know.  So I am a little confused with your post, do you like Carnival?😁👍

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11 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

 

Corpses came off Golden and Zaandam and Ruby and Coral and Diamond. Let that sink in for a minute.

 

 

 

 

World wide pandemic, and we had 5 cruise ships out of 500 cruise ships affected with on board deaths. I'm not a math wizard, but that looks like 1% to me. 

 

Couple that with the idea that Cruise ships didn't invent the Corona Virus.

 

I don't have the numbers, but what if we divide the total number of deaths on these five ships, divided by the total number of deaths from the Corona Virus?

 

 Can someone fact check this?

 

I like what this person posted:

 

"So, yeah, IF I’m alive, I will continue to do that that which brings me JOY."

 

I admit I have a statistical confirmation bias and don't rely so much on emotions and feelings.  

 

 

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45 minutes ago, Radiioman46 said:

World wide pandemic, and we had 5 cruise ships out of 500 cruise ships affected with on board deaths. I'm not a math wizard, but that looks like 1% to me. 

 

Couple that with the idea that Cruise ships didn't invent the Corona Virus.

 

I don't have the numbers, but what if we divide the total number of deaths on these five ships, divided by the total number of deaths from the Corona Virus?

 

 Can someone fact check this?

 

I like what this person posted:

 

"So, yeah, IF I’m alive, I will continue to do that that which brings me JOY."

 

I admit I have a statistical confirmation bias and don't rely so much on emotions and feelings.  

 

 

You are right, but the cruise ship problems started early and unfortunately made news stories that made it sound like they were "petri dishes" for the coronavirus. And then there were the stranded passengers who also made the kind of stories that could be sensationalized.

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Carnival's own words:    (from April 3 10-Q,  (https://www.carnivalcorp.com/sec-filings/sec-filing/10-q/0000815097-20-000030 )
 

"We currently estimate the substantial majority of our fleet will be in prolonged ship layup. In addition, we expect to incur ongoing selling and administrative expenses, and incremental COVID-related costs associated with sanitizing our ships and defending lawsuits, although we anticipate substantially reducing our advertising spend during the pause in operations. After transitioning to a prolonged pause, we anticipate estimated ongoing ship and administrative operating costs to range from $200 million to $300 million per month."

Substantial majority of our fleet ... prolonged ship layover.

 

Can't imagine any message being more clear.

As for 1 percent of cruise ships having dead passengers from COVID-19 .... this is comparing apples and hamsters.
(If 1 percent of Toyotas exploded leaving the showroom floor, you'd see a whole lot of Avalons and Camrys gathering dust in the showroom for years to come.)


 

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I realize that only a small number of cruise ships were affected by the virus but unfortunately, it could radically change the cruise industry. It could a year before cruises resume.  I think Carnival will survive but I am not totally confident. European and Asian cruises will be unlikely in the foreseeable future. New builds will be off the table for at least a decade, older ships maybe scrapped sooner than planned, and remodels unlikely even cosmetic maintenance will be cutback.  I suspect Mexico and the Bahamas will welcome the ships back since they need the money. Other countries may not be some welcoming. I hope the US will relax some of the restrictive laws that require stopping at a foreign port (to allow Alaskan and Hawaiian cruises to resume) and forbidding cruises to nowhere.  It would be great to see a cruise ship to leave an American port and visit other American ports. Such as leaving Galveston, stopping in Gulfport, then Tampa, and finally Key West. 

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5 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:


(If 1 percent of Toyotas exploded leaving the showroom floor, you'd see a whole lot of Avalons and Camrys gathering dust in the showroom for years to come.)
 

That's because we don't have Toyota's exploding all around us to compare. Whereas, in the cruise line industry, we have deaths from the Covid19 everywhere. 

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