Do you REALLY think we'll be cruising this year?

[yorky]

7 minutes ago, RICCruisers said:

You may not have choice about getting the vaccine. If an effective one is developed, cruise  companies may make it a requirement to board the ship. 

I have my doubts, that would be a minefield.

Edited April 22, 2020 by yorky

[Bo1953]

24 minutes ago, dallasdan said:

I don't get a flu shot, so I wouldn't take a Covid 19 vaccine shot either.  So if they implemented a policy of requiring a vaccine to sail, then my cruise days would be over.  However, I don't see how they can implement a policy like that.  There are many different reasons why some people wouldn't get the vaccine.  Also, how would prove it.  A note from a doctor?  

Most likely, can be similar documentation to that for vaccinations required to enter some countries...

 

If foreign ports require passports, as they do currently and cruise lines check passengers for same, then cruise lines may be compelled to check for documentation for vaccines before boarding or be fined if they permit a passenger to board without same.

 

bon voyage

Edited April 22, 2020 by Bo1953

[ldubs]

6 hours ago, Bo1953 said:

Yes, I agree who really knows, except that I do not have access to any of the information that the 'professionals' are using to make the projections.

 

I cannot 'reliably' or accurately post anything supportive or debunking the posits in the article.

 

I can choose to be ready to sail when X and/or other cruise lines get the okay to do so. I do have a few booked already and waiting and luggage is ready, too!!!! LOL

 

bon voyage

 

I hope you make it bags in hand!  My crystal ball is kind of cloudy on what will actually happen through the end of the year.  What I do know if this time next year I will look back with perfect clarity on what should have happened.  Haha.  

[Pennstateman]

negative

[Bo1953]

3 minutes ago, ldubs said:

 

I hope you make it bags in hand!  My crystal ball is kind of cloudy on what will actually happen through the end of the year.  What I do know if this time next year I will look back with perfect clarity on what should have happened.  Haha.  

LOL l - I will still have bags in hand, yet having the opportunity to board is a totally different challenge...

 

bon voyage

Edited April 22, 2020 by Bo1953

[ldubs]

1 minute ago, Pennstateman said:

negative

 

Hopefully the result of a CV test. 👍 

[drlucy12]

6 minutes ago, Bo1953 said:

Most likely similar documentation to that for vaccinations required to enter some countries...

 

bon voyage

 

Will Italy or Spain require proof of vaccination before allowing any foreign tourists to enter the country? Even "land" based tours? Italy depends heavily on tourism to support their economy.  Yellow fever vaccine is highly recommended to travel to Peru but not required.  If the vaccine is 12 to 18 months away or longer (especially if the COVID 19 mutates),  can these countries wait that long? Just speculation right now.....

[Bo1953]

9 minutes ago, drlucy12 said:

 

Will Italy or Spain require proof of vaccination before allowing any foreign tourists to enter the country? Even "land" based tours? Italy depends heavily on tourism to support their economy.  Yellow fever vaccine is highly recommended to travel to Peru but not required.  If the vaccine is 12 to 18 months away or longer (especially if the COVID 19 mutates),  can these countries wait that long? Just speculation right now.....

thank you d - my thoughts were in response to a thought on how cruise lines would insure that one had the vaccine, were it available upon our next sailing.

 

This  is not to say that flying into a country that they would not require it as well.

 

Your pointing out of Italy and Spain, is noted as they are, broadly, travel based economy, yet I bet they could wait if it were decided that a vaccination would be required to enter...

 

In health and bon voyage

Edited April 22, 2020 by Bo1953

[yorky]

2 minutes ago, drlucy12 said:

 

Will Italy or Spain require proof of vaccination before allowing any foreign tourists to enter the country? Even "land" based tours? Italy depends heavily on tourism to support their economy.  Yellow fever vaccine is highly recommended to travel to Peru but not required.  If the vaccine is 12 to 18 months away or longer (especially if the COVID 19 mutates),  can these countries wait that long? Just speculation right now.....

That would be the problem, if you are going to demand a shot then that’s going to have to be the same for those flying in to a country. Many countries will be hit too badly to more or less ban all tourists for an extended period.

[rimmit]

1 hour ago, yorky said:

I have my doubts, that would be a minefield.

I am not sure where the cruise line would stand regarding a Covid vaccine requirement.  However, if it got the ships Moving and allowed them to make money they would do it. 
 

In regards to society there will be a squeeze on people to get the vaccine.   For people that choose to not get it there will likely be higher health insurance premiums, higher travel insurance premiums, no public school, not being allowed to work for certain businesses, higher Medicaid tax, etc.  

[davekathy]

We still plan going on our September 2020 cruise. My Magic 8 Ball says, "cannot predict now, ask again later". 

[yorky]

22 minutes ago, rimmit said:

I am not sure where the cruise line would stand regarding a Covid vaccine requirement.  However, if it got the ships Moving and allowed them to make money they would do it. 
 

In regards to society there will be a squeeze on people to get the vaccine.   For people that choose to not get it there will likely be higher health insurance premiums, higher travel insurance premiums, no public school, not being allowed to work for certain businesses, higher Medicaid tax, etc.  

Maybe with the US system, no difference in the UK.

[rimmit]

2 minutes ago, yorky said:

Maybe with the US system, no difference in the UK.

Just out of curiosity, what are the vaccine requirements like in the UK for public schools.  In the US it is state dependent.  Some allow religious exemptions, some don’t.  Just curious.  

[yorky]

17 minutes ago, rimmit said:

Just out of curiosity, what are the vaccine requirements like in the UK for public schools.  In the US it is state dependent.  Some allow religious exemptions, some don’t.  Just curious.  

I’m not aware there is any, but then we never had kids.

[cluso]

2 hours ago, drlucy12 said:

 

Will Italy or Spain require proof of vaccination before allowing any foreign tourists to enter the country? Even "land" based tours? Italy depends heavily on tourism to support their economy.  Yellow fever vaccine is highly recommended to travel to Peru but not required.  

 

Countries set there own rules and enforcement policies on "recommended" and "required" vaccines.  Some countries in South America and Africa do "require" a yellow fever vaccine for anyone entering the country, by whatever means.   Usually the International Yellow card needs to be shown, along with your passport.  Your Contract of Carriage for a ship has a blanket statement that it is up to the individual traveler to make sure the correct health documents are in hand.

If a vaccine is "required" and people don't want to get one, then they don't travel where there is a "requirement".  Simple.

 

The CDC tries to maintain an up to date list, however, they have no control over other countries requirements/enforcement.

[jonthomas]

58 minutes ago, davekathy said:

We still plan going on our September 2020 cruise. My Magic 8 Ball says, "cannot predict now, ask again later". 

 

Will you be in a row boat or a canoe? That is definitely social distancing. 

[ECCruise]

You know, why not let the countries that are impacted by tourism decide whether or not they want to open to tourists again.

It really doesn't matter what any of us think.  And they make their own decisions on whether or not the loss of tourists is good or bad (and I don't even need to ask in Venice what their thoughts are).

[mayleeman]

Not mentioned yet (unless I missed it) is the problem of crews being gathered from all over the world to attend to all of these "Hemingway" adventurers.

 

I cannot imagine large scale cruising until the ships can ensure their crews will not catch and spread the virus, either by requiring them and pax to be vaccinated (with a vaccine proven to be as close as possible to 100% effective), or reliable testing with instant results.

 

The lines will not spend millions of dollars ramping up with the uncertainty of hundreds of potential carriers staying on board for numerous consecutive cruises.

[John182]

Cannot see any cruising worthy of the name being available this year alas. Might be some watered down, socially distanced, elbow bumping thing going on but hell that's not for me. I just want to go down the pub and have a drink with my friends without the use of a megaphone and I'm not going to be able to do that either.

 

Oh well, have to dash. Another virtual quiz night about to kick off here. Life can be so exciting.😀

[ECCruise]

23 minutes ago, mayleeman said:

Not mentioned yet (unless I missed it) is the problem of crews being gathered from all over the world to attend to all of these "Hemingway" adventurers.

 

I cannot imagine large scale cruising until the ships can ensure their crews will not catch and spread the virus, either by requiring them and pax to be vaccinated (with a vaccine proven to be as close as possible to 100% effective), or reliable testing with instant results.

 

The lines will not spend millions of dollars ramping up with the uncertainty of hundreds of potential carriers staying on board for numerous consecutive cruises.

Plus, many, many ships are traveling half way around the world to take crew members HOME.  Like today.  Do you think they are suddenly going to be returning them to ships?

[NantahalaCruiser]

10 hours ago, yorky said:

I have my doubts, that would be a minefield.

But probably even more of a minefield without vaccine requirements - or proof of anti-bodies.

[Happy Cruiser 6143]

11 hours ago, NantahalaCruiser said:

Flu shots are vaccines; however, they are not always useful due to the mutational variations.

 

And the same will apply to whatever vaccine is eventually developed for COVID-19.  I don't see why people think the development of a vaccine is the be all and end all.  To me, it would be much more important to develop an accurate test for antibodies.  If one has the antibodies, that shows that one has had the virus and survived.  We've had a flu vaccine for years and years.  Astounding numbers of people still die from the flu every year.  That doesn't seem to have stopped cruising or shut down the entire world.

[markeb]

1 minute ago, Happy Cruiser 6143 said:

 

And the same will apply to whatever vaccine is eventually developed for COVID-19.  I don't see why people think the development of a vaccine is the be all and end all.  To me, it would be much more important to develop an accurate test for antibodies.  If one has the antibodies, that shows that one has had the virus and survived.  We've had a flu vaccine for years and years.  Astounding numbers of people still die from the flu every year.  That doesn't seem to have stopped cruising or shut down the entire world.

 

IF we can develop the data that lets us interpret the test. And IF we have the stability in the virus that we can make that assumption. I'm hopeful, but there's still limited actual data.

 

It's unlikely we'll have the kind of shift and drift we see with the flu, but if that's your baseline, you have to recognize the similar issues with over interpreting natural immunity. We're still only about 6 months into this globally. It just seems like forever...

[K.T.B.]

11 hours ago, dallasdan said:

I don't get a flu shot, so I wouldn't take a Covid 19 vaccine shot either.  So if they implemented a policy of requiring a vaccine to sail, then my cruise days would be over.  However, I don't see how they can implement a policy like that.  There are many different reasons why some people wouldn't get the vaccine.  Also, how would prove it.  A note from a doctor?  

 

I always get violently ill from a flu shot, so I will never get one.  BUT I will get a COVID-19 shot, if only to protect my wife who is in her 70's.  Her life is far more valuable to me than me possibly getting ill from the shot.

 

The flu is NOT comparable to COVID-19.

 

 

Anyway, in answer to the question posed by the OP:  "Do you REALLY think we'll be cruising this year?"

 

YES.

Edited April 23, 2020 by K.T.B.

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

The facts tell us all we need to know about the odds for 2020 cruising:

 

Royal Caribbean laid off 26 percent of its workers, Hertz just laid off 10,000 in North America, Germany just canceled Oktoberfest 2020;

 

Cruise ships are sailing right now for one reason: To return crews members to their home countries;

 

CCL has publicly predicted "the substantial majority" of its fleet will be in "prolonged ship layup," California communities are already canceling July 4 fireworks, MLB is talking about playing the season in ballparks without fans;

 

No national concert tours are on schedule for 2020, there is no talk of international border restrictions being lifted, and the CDC this week warned of a second - more lethal - round of this virus starting this fall.

 

 

If there is evidence (genuine facts and science, not "optimism" and angry conjecture) to indicate cruise ships will sail again in 2020, let's see it.