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Do you REALLY think we'll be cruising this year?

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53 minutes ago, davekathy said:

Your choice not to cruise if Celebrity decides to start cruising before a vaccine. Again it's all about choices. 


This is not about when Celebrity chooses they want they want to start cruising.  It’s about when the CDC decides to let them cruise.  Celebrity does not have a choice

in this matter. X would likely sail the moment there was an inkling of belief that Covid is on the downswing.

 

While other countries do not have to follow CDC guidelines, I find it hard to believe they will not follow the US’s lead in this matter at least to some degree.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, rimmit said:


This is not about when Celebrity chooses they want they want to start cruising.  It’s about when the CDC decides to let them cruise.  Celebrity does not have a choice

in this matter. X would likely sail the moment there was an inkling of belief that Covid is on the downswing.

 

While other countries do not have to follow CDC guidelines, I find it hard to believe they will not follow the US’s lead in this matter at least to some degree.

Yes I know that. Thanks for making my point. Celebrity will open up the cruises when the CDC gives the OK and that's when we'll start cruising again. Like I said, Celebrity will be deciding for us "based on the CDC recommendations, guidance, guidelines" when we cruise again. I believe Celebrity is doing the right thing by currently suspending cruises.  

Edited by davekathy

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21 minutes ago, rimmit said:

While other countries do not have to follow CDC guidelines, I find it hard to believe they will not follow the US’s lead in this matter at least to some degree.

I doubt any country is going to follow the US's lead in reopening cruise ports. They'll do what is best for themselves in their recovery from COVID-19, which may or may not coincide with steps taken by the US. JMO

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45 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

I doubt any country is going to follow the US's lead in reopening cruise ports. They'll do what is best for themselves in their recovery from COVID-19, which may or may not coincide with steps taken by the US. JMO


I agree.  Better way of putting it would be it’s a basic guideline.

 

Given Spain is thinking of killing tourism for all of 2020, as is Italy, I suspect the CDC may be significantly more lenient Than Europe and Australia.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/guymartin/2020/04/20/post-pandemic-travel-spain-the-second-most-visited-country-on-earth-weighs-a-fraught-revival-of-its-200-billion-tourism-sector-by-the-end-of-2020/?fbclid=IwAR0z54lovZfVdiZQI1VbxL0wCYirp8KXMJ6Psl2y66zzxhadL1icysxuwms#3d6133933a41

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39 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

I doubt any country is going to follow the US's lead in reopening cruise ports. They'll do what is best for themselves in their recovery from COVID-19, which may or may not coincide with steps taken by the US. JMO

Absolutely.  Situation is different in each country.  Would guess that Australia will be one of the last after the Ruby Princess fiasco.

Ponder that LA has banned concerts and large sporting events thru 2020, universities are planning for classes to be online until 2021.  What does this suggest for cruising this year?

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10 minutes ago, az_tchr said:

Absolutely.  Situation is different in each country.  Would guess that Australia will be one of the last after the Ruby Princess fiasco.

Ponder that LA has banned concerts and large sporting events thru 2020, universities are planning for classes to be online until 2021.  What does this suggest for cruising this year?


Yes, I meant that I think the US would be quicker to let cruise ships than any other country.

 

I highly doubt cruising will happen until their is an effective vaccine, herd immunity, or an effective therapy.  That’s just my point of view, but I cannot come up with any reasonable scientific argument that would allow cruise ships to sail without one of those Three in place.  That’s just my thoughts.  I hope I am wrong.

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5 minutes ago, rimmit said:

 I hope I am wrong.

I hope you are right because not waiting would be a disaster. I am just sad that it will take awhile before we know if and when those 3, or even 1 of them, will be met.

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3 minutes ago, mayleeman said:

I hope you are right because not waiting would be a disaster. I am just sad that it will take awhile before we know if and when those 3, or even 1 of them, will be met.


This is such a strange situation.  You hope the lines take off for the sake of jobs, economy, etc. And at the same time they are a total danger.  There really is no right answer.  😞

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We have cancelled our cruise out of Rome in October.

 

We have  our usual winter b2b planned for Jan/Feb. But, the way things look, who knows if that will happen.Unless we feel it is perfectly safe, we will cancel that, too.

 

The sad problem is that no one seems to know how to deal with this deadly virus. Even though there has been no reduction in new cases, nor deaths, they are talking about reopening schools, etc. When they do, I am not willing to be a guinea pig. I will wait and see how many more cases will follow.

 

To those of you who are much more cavalier about this than I am, I wish you good luck and good health.

 

That's the bottom line....that we all stay healthy. Without our health, no job, school, restaurant, hair dresser or vacation is worth a d---n.

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9 hours ago, Fouremco said:

I doubt any country is going to follow the US's lead in reopening cruise ports. They'll do what is best for themselves in their recovery from COVID-19, which may or may not coincide with steps taken by the US. JMO


completely agree. Especially after the failed tests and just their inconsistent messaging. We are  the last country the rest of the world should use as a guideline on when to start cruising again. 

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11 hours ago, Charles4515 said:

 


If they restart cruises too soon and ships become hotspots again that will likely be the end of cruising. It would be better for them to wait. I also feel a responsibility to the human race that overrides my desire to cruise again soon.


Sent from my iPhone using Forums

Just like airplanes???

 

bon voyage

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13 hours ago, mayleeman said:

Some people who were downplaying the coronavirus early on (say, mid-March) were basing their views on the fact that, back then, COVID-19 had only killed a small number compared to the seasonal flu. There are quite a few people still saying things about how we don't shut down for the flu despite it killing 35,000 to 61,000 (avg by CDC estimate) yearly in the US. Someone in my November roll call ssys the current shut down of cruising and other businesses is "disgraceful," and "shameful" so they want to be able to cruise again soon.

 

Well, we are now at 52,000+ deaths in the US, with 2,000+ more added on most days. We actually passed the number killed in the Korean War a while back (35,000), and within 3 to 4 days will pass the 58,000 Americans who lost their lives in Vietnam.

 

I am bringing these comparisons up because at least in Vietnam, we knew the deaths would stop soon when the US finally wound down its involvement. The disruptions in policy making, the social unrest, and the anger caused by that war, however, have continued for decades. 

 

The numbers are still rising rapidly, not falling, with no end in sight--at least not in the sight of anyone other than politicians who are wanting to reopen economies. 

 

When the numbers diminish to less than 100 per day, with the ability to track the sources of infection, there will be cruising. Meanwhile, we can dream but we should accept that no miracle will make this go away.

 

mayleeman- I am not expecting a miracle but I do observe that there is currently very good medicine, science, epidemiology and very high compliance to social distancing and hygiene recommendations. And I observe most governments and politicians behaving responsibly.   So there is an end in site.  The numbers are turning even in the very hard hit NYC area.  We will move on from all of this.  Cruising is far down on my list of things to do once society starts opening up again.  It will be nice to do again some day but just not important in the grand scheme of things.

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The country cannot stay locked down for much longer. I give it a couple of weeks. We are flattening the curve.  Hospital admission rates have slowed. High risk individuals need to be protected but shutting down entire industries and expecting young working families to just stay on unemployment for a year is madness. And remember rates of domestic violence, drug use and suicide all increase with unemployment and financial hardship. They are real costs of this shutdown which don’t often get counted. 
Whether  that means cruises start again I don’t know. I think cruise lines will need to be much more selective as to who they will carry. Those of us with underlying medical conditions might be out of luck!

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3 hours ago, tosteve1 said:

The country cannot stay locked down for much longer. I give it a couple of weeks. We are flattening the curve.  Hospital admission rates have slowed. High risk individuals need to be protected but shutting down entire industries and expecting young working families to just stay on unemployment for a year is madness. And remember rates of domestic violence, drug use and suicide all increase with unemployment and financial hardship. They are real costs of this shutdown which don’t often get counted. 
Whether  that means cruises start again I don’t know. I think cruise lines will need to be much more selective as to who they will carry. Those of us with underlying medical conditions might be out of luck!

Depends upon the area.  Those that locked down early, such as Washington, California and Oregon  are well along in the curve.  Those that moved later, not so much.  Different parts of the country are at different places.  Even then re-opening does not mean going back to how it was prior to Covid.  It means more businesses open, with distancing rules.  But not so much for large gatherings.

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4 hours ago, tosteve1 said:

The country cannot stay locked down for much longer. I give it a couple of weeks. We are flattening the curve.  Hospital admission rates have slowed. High risk individuals need to be protected but shutting down entire industries and expecting young working families to just stay on unemployment for a year is madness. And remember rates of domestic violence, drug use and suicide all increase with unemployment and financial hardship. They are real costs of this shutdown which don’t often get counted. 
Whether  that means cruises start again I don’t know. I think cruise lines will need to be much more selective as to who they will carry. Those of us with underlying medical conditions might be out of luck!

Flattened the curve nationally?  I think not.  Yesterday featured the highest number of new cases to date.  Over 36,000.  Previous high was 34,000 on April 9th, over 2 weeks ago.  Also in NC, where we both live, the highest new cases yet yesterday.

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If you look at a website showing daily new cases the curve is flattening. It was increasing exponentially. On April 9 total cases were <500k. A significantly smaller base. The rate of growth is decreasing in total cases and deaths. Worldometer.com has lots of useful graphs. We need to remember our goals in shutting down the country i.e. to flatten the curve, not to completely eliminate the virus. Because that is very unlikely to happen.

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Celebrity is still offering cruises:  Offering one itinerary but posting an itinerary a bit different.1931233327_CanadaCruiseJune2020headline.thumb.png.060f83df8fe00d357ab14bbb8cd0a741.png

 

Canada Cruise June 2020 itinerary.png

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, tosteve1 said:

We need to remember our goals in shutting down the country i.e. to flatten the curve, not to completely eliminate the virus. Because that is very unlikely to happen.


Agree, but we also need to remember that we have a long way to go.

 

Just like Wisconsin and their voting situation a couple of weeks ago (they are seeing an uptick in cases directly related to it), I believe states that are opening up early will see a vicious return.

 

The latest poll I have seen, says over 60% of Americans say they prefer to keep the stay at home push intact and not move to quickly to remove it. We need to get to the point of a person who can infect others, is infecting LESS then ONE other person. As long as they can infect more than one, it will continue to rise. Simple math.

If it helps (it does me), look at the world numbers and the time frame of when they started to actually look at this virus as more than the "simple" flu. I watch a gentleman on YouTube from the UK by the name of John Cambell. I feel he breaks things down in a layman's understanding very well without all of the BS.

Edited by Mike981

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19 hours ago, rimmit said:


This is not about when Celebrity chooses they want they want to start cruising.  It’s about when the CDC decides to let them cruise.  Celebrity does not have a choice

in this matter. X would likely sail the moment there was an inkling of belief that Covid is on the downswing.

 

While other countries do not have to follow CDC guidelines, I find it hard to believe they will not follow the US’s lead in this matter at least to some degree.

 

As you point out... other countries do not have to follow CDC guidelines.  While you find it hard to believe that they will not follow these guidelines, I have to disagree.  I think some (many?) cruise lines will resume sailing once there are enough ports open to cruise ships that reasonable itineraries can be created.  Given that many cruise ports are hugely dependent on cruise tourists, I expect this may occur sooner than many expect.  I guess only time will tell.

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1 minute ago, mnocket said:

 

As you point out... other countries do not have to follow CDC guidelines.  While you find it hard to believe that they will not follow these guidelines, I have to disagree.  I think some (many?) cruise lines will resume sailing once there are enough ports open to cruise ships that reasonable itineraries can be created.  Given that many cruise ports are hugely dependent on cruise tourists, I expect this may occur sooner than many expect.  I guess only time will tell.

On the other hand many of those ports have limited medical facilities that have trouble taking care of their populations at the best of times. So even though they are dependent upon tourism, any outbreak would be very difficult for them.  Many were stopping ship visits even before the suspension.

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No, I think that it will be 2021 before we're able to cruise again.  However, as others have said, some cruise lines may try things out later this year with short trial cruises with no ports of call.

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I am from the UK and Europe has been hit hard. Some countries are starting to ease restrictions, but I have read that opening up countries to tourists is low down the list. Spain is the most popular holiday destination for Brits (our booked cruise is due to visit Spanish ports) but the Spanish government is warning there may not be a tourist season this year. I suspect the "European cruise season" won't happen. I have no problem with that as health comes first, but for Spain it will be devastating for their economy. Governments face incredibly difficult decisions. It is where their leaders are fully tested.

 

Up until a couple of days ago the cases and deaths were numbers to me, but a good friend died earlier this week, which brings it home!

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Tourism is very important to most countries.  As things open up cruising is pretty far down the list.  Need borders to open, countries to recover enough to open domestic travel and businesses.  Now you also need airline travel and covid19 at least enough in the background to open sporting events and larger gatherings including universities (dormitories and cafeterias).  Only then can one consider opening cruising.  That probably happens along with a vaccine.

 

My pet peeve today is the disengenuous communications issued by cruiselines.  Understand trying to flatten the curve of cancellations - sorry a really bad pun - but there are dozens and dozen of cruises that simply are impossible unless we get a vaccine.  Italy today is not capable of handling a cruise ship today and it will be months before they recover sufficiently.

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Posted (edited)
  • We'll be cruising by Easter! ...Some Easter, anyway.... Maybe.... Or maybe not.
Edited by latserrof

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2 hours ago, mnocket said:

 

As you point out... other countries do not have to follow CDC guidelines.  While you find it hard to believe that they will not follow these guidelines, I have to disagree.  I think some (many?) cruise lines will resume sailing once there are enough ports open to cruise ships that reasonable itineraries can be created.  Given that many cruise ports are hugely dependent on cruise tourists, I expect this may occur sooner than many expect.  I guess only time will tell.


The cruise ports were shutting down before the US issued a stop sail order so it seems they are even more conservative regarding letting cruise ships come in than the US is.

 

Europe is not dependent on the cruise industry like the Caribbean.  Neither is aus/NZ.  They could lose the cruise ships and the locals would be happier,  at least in Europe.

 

I do not foresee many ports opening up to cruise ships before the US gives a go ahead simply because the US is the most incentivized to get them moving and the one almost capable of supporting the cruise ships in the Caribbean in case of a disaster.  Without US support who can the ships turn to?  Most of the Caribbean Islands May have one boat as best that serves as their navy.

 

Ultimately we’ll just have to see how Things play out.  Science is winning the battle so far.

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