Disney may not open until 2021 How about cruise ships?

[datolim]

We believe Parks' profitability will be impaired for a longer period of time given the lingering effects of the outbreak and now assume an opening date of Jan. 1 as our base case," Hodulik wrote. "That said, the economic recession plus the need for social distancing, new health precautions, the lack of travel and crowd aversion are likely to make this business less profitable until there is a widely available vaccine."

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/when-will-disney-world-and-disneyland-reopen-one-analyst-predicts-it-may-not-be-until-2021/ar-BB130zc5?ocid=spartanntp

[cruisinfanatic]

3 minutes ago, datolim said:

We believe Parks' profitability will be impaired for a longer period of time given the lingering effects of the outbreak and now assume an opening date of Jan. 1 as our base case," Hodulik wrote. "That said, the economic recession plus the need for social distancing, new health precautions, the lack of travel and crowd aversion are likely to make this business less profitable until there is a widely available vaccine."

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/when-will-disney-world-and-disneyland-reopen-one-analyst-predicts-it-may-not-be-until-2021/ar-BB130zc5?ocid=spartanntp

Because one guy says so?

[time4u2go]

Interestingly, someone else in that same article says the parks could open June 1.

[John&LaLa]

Reports of 40,000 unemplyed just at Disney.

 

[orville99]

And Gov.DeSantis is meeting today with is "re-open Florida" team to come up with a plan to open the tourist industry in Florida as their first priority. Having the parks open only works if customers choose to go there - and that piece will take quite a while to happen.

[orville99]

1 minute ago, John&LaLa said:

Reports of 40,000 unemplyed just at Disney.

 

Closer to 50,000. Disney said they're only keeping ~200 people active at WDW to keep the park infrastructure running.

[RocCruisers]

I would think Disney will be the bell weather for major tourist destinations - including Vegas and cruises.  I can't image their lawyers agreeing to open things up, without everyone signing a waiver from C19. And then making sure all their employees agree to those waivers too.  That will be even harder.  

[livingonthebeach]

I think many businesses will be less profitable once the economy restarts.  The big winners are Amazon, Walmart, Target and grocery stores.  A lot of small business that cater to personal services, travel and tourism won't survive.  

 

If and when the cruise industry reopens, there will be many changes and their profitability will be down for at least a few years.

[molly361]

6 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

I think many businesses will be less profitable once the economy restarts.  The big winners are Amazon, Walmart, Target and grocery stores.  A lot of small business that cater to personal services, travel and tourism won't survive.  

 

If and when the cruise industry reopens, there will be many changes and their profitability will be down for at least a few years.

Yup we already have one restaurant in our town that will not be re-opening with more to come I'm afraid

[livingonthebeach]

6 minutes ago, molly361 said:

Yup we already have one restaurant in our town that will not be re-opening with more to come I'm afraid

 

Restaurants will be hit hard.  The Miami Herald ran a story today stating only one out of five restaurants will survive.  Sad 😢

[orville99]

34 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Restaurants will be hit hard.  The Miami Herald ran a story today stating only one out of five restaurants will survive.  Sad 😢

True, but in reality, how many of those five restaurants would have collapsed under their own weight regardless. The mortality rate amongst independent restaurants has always been quite high - even in good times. And, over-expansion of franchise brands has created an unsustainable glut of restaurants throughout the U.S.

 

Average Life Span

Both Perry Group International and The Restaurant Brokers have completed studies on the average life span of restaurants. Their results are slightly different but show the same trend. The Perry Group study concluded that most restaurants close during their first year of operation. Seventy percent of those that make it past the first year close their doors in the next three to five years. Ninety percent of the restaurants that are still operating past the five-year mark will stay in business for a minimum of 10 years. The Restaurant Brokers’ study, the only one to make a distinction between chain and independent restaurants, concluded that up to 90 percent of independent establishments close during the first year, and the remaining restaurants will have an average five-year life span.

Edited April 22, 2020 by orville99

[livingonthebeach]

4 minutes ago, orville99 said:

True, but in reality, how many of those five restaurants would have collapsed under their own weight regardless. The mortality rate amongst independent restaurants has always been quite high - even in good times. And, over-expansion of franchise brands has created an unsustainable glut of restaurants throughout the U.S.

 

Yes true but they don't all go under at the same rate in good times.  The reduction of 80% of the restaurant industry here in Miami-Dade will have a big impact on jobs.  We also rely heavily on tourism, entertainment, boating and golf which are not looking good at the moment.  Our unemployment rate is going to reach very high levels since some of these jobs will never come back.  I'm sure you're experiencing the same in Orlando.  Very sad times, indeed.  

[orville99]

1 minute ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Yes true but they don't all go under at the same rate in good times.  The reduction of 80% of the restaurant industry here in Miami-Dade will have a big impact on jobs.  We also rely heavily on tourism, entertainment, boating and golf which are not looking good at the moment.  Our unemployment rate is going to reach very high levels since some of these jobs will never come back.  I'm sure you're experiencing the same in Orlando.  Very sad times, indeed.  

The reality is that nationwide, they do fail at that rate naturally:

Average Life Span

Both Perry Group International and The Restaurant Brokers have completed studies on the average life span of restaurants. Their results are slightly different but show the same trend. The Perry Group study concluded that most restaurants close during their first year of operation. Seventy percent of those that make it past the first year close their doors in the next three to five years. Ninety percent of the restaurants that are still operating past the five-year mark will stay in business for a minimum of 10 years. The Restaurant Brokers’ study, the only one to make a distinction between chain and independent restaurants, concluded that up to 90 percent of independent establishments close during the first year, and the remaining restaurants will have an average five-year life span.

[bobmacliberty]

I've been purchasing gift certificates for local businesses/restaurants where possible.  They are often sold at a discounted rate.  If enough people do this, it may keep enough cash flow going to keep some of these businesses afloat.  And yes, they can go out of business and my gift certificates become worthless.  I can afford it...they can't.

[livingonthebeach]

26 minutes ago, orville99 said:

The reality is that nationwide, they do fail at that rate naturally:

Average Life Span

Both Perry Group International and The Restaurant Brokers have completed studies on the average life span of restaurants. Their results are slightly different but show the same trend. The Perry Group study concluded that most restaurants close during their first year of operation. Seventy percent of those that make it past the first year close their doors in the next three to five years. Ninety percent of the restaurants that are still operating past the five-year mark will stay in business for a minimum of 10 years. The Restaurant Brokers’ study, the only one to make a distinction between chain and independent restaurants, concluded that up to 90 percent of independent establishments close during the first year, and the remaining restaurants will have an average five-year life span.

 

Wow -- never knew it was that high.  In the pandemic case, 80% will go out of business in 2 months which much less than one year.  But if 90% go out of business within one year anyway,  then this is not far off from normal times.  Thanks for the info. 

[zekekelso]

It's true. Cruise ships might not open until 2021. Or they might open earlier. Or later. I think that about covers it. 

 

I do think Disney will reopen parks before ships start sailing. 

[orville99]

7 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Wow -- never knew it was that high.  In the pandemic case, 80% will go out of business in 2 months which much less than one year.  But if 90% go out of business within one year anyway,  then this is not far off from normal times.  Thanks for the info. 

No problem. The good news (if there is any in all of this) is that once a restaurant opens, the necessary infrastructure to operate it becomes part of the "leasehold improvements", so in the event the restaurant fails, everything necessary for a new restaurant to open in the same location is already there. You will often see a new restaurant open in the space previously occupied by a prior failed restaurant.

[rhiannon35]

I received an interesting survey from Universal listing different safety measures and then asking me to rate how important each one was for me to consider going to a park. It ranged from appt. times for rides to all guests being given rapid COVID tests before being allowed to enter. 

[Drock20J]

When Disney releases their target for opening, I will believe it. Anything else is speculation.

 

I am excited for both Disney and the Cruise Industry to open again. As a Central Florida resident, I miss both! I also though want everyone to be as healthy as possible.

 

Bob Iger recently talked about some of the potential changes we might see at Disney parks, including temp checks/body scans, reduced capacity limits, and virtual queue lines.  All of these are great ideas!

 

 

[Tapi]

Another speculative article. Lots of opinions but few facts. 
 

If there’s one thing that is very clear to me is that NOBODY knows when cruise lines, parks, stadiums, etc will reopen. 

[bobmacliberty]

1 hour ago, Drock20J said:

Bob Iger recently talked about some of the potential changes we might see at Disney parks, including temp checks/body scans, reduced capacity limits, and virtual queue lines.

 

Any idea how the virtual queues would work?  Sounds like a possible good idea even during "normal" times for the Disney parks.  The lines are the worst part of the Disney experience.

[Sunshine3601]

Realistically it would be much easier to open Disney and Universal way before cruise ships sailing.    Far easier to control social distancing at Disney than a cruise ship.     

I would really love to see one of the plans submitted to the CDC by any of the cruise lines.    I think they were all due by now. 

[Roger88]

Disney in Anaheim is closed.. the Paris one is closed as well. Not sure about the one in Tokyo though. As far as Cruisng goes, Princess is planning to start operation in June. I hope it will work out for them. Generally speaking, Autumn is the closest it can get. Not sure about summer unfortunatly 

[Iamcruzin]

6 hours ago, orville99 said:

And Gov.DeSantis is meeting today with is "re-open Florida" team to come up with a plan to open the tourist industry in Florida as their first priority. Having the parks open only works if customers choose to go there - and that piece will take quite a while to happen.

Well if people are willing to jump on the first cruise leaving I'm sure there are folks who would  book a Disney vacation. The problem with tourism opening too soon is people from New York will fly or jump in the car and go just to get away from here. A great many of us have relatives living there. I have flights booked to Florida in June. I was going to cancel because I didn't see a point in traveling if it meant that I would just be sitting in my in laws house on quarantine. If beaches and parks are going to be open by then we may just make the trip. 

[John&LaLa]

1 hour ago, Roger88 said:

Disney in Anaheim is closed.. the Paris one is closed as well. Not sure about the one in Tokyo though. As far as Cruisng goes, Princess is planning to start operation in June. I hope it will work out for them. Generally speaking, Autumn is the closest it can get. Not sure about summer unfortunatly 

 

I really don't think Princess will ever reopen. They are the poster child for COVID