Guess The First Itinerary to Sail (No Betting)

[flossie009]

3 hours ago, greykitty said:

I was actually looking for current reviews as I thought they had at least one sailing under their belt

See CC article: Hurtigruten Finnmarken

[greykitty]

Thanks - I was also hoping to a few more regular customer reviews, but I'm sure they'll come in time.  

[Wendy The Wanderer]

2 hours ago, flossie009 said:

See CC article: Hurtigruten Finnmarken

 

Thanks, that's great!  I've always wanted to do a Hurtigruten trip, almost did one a couple of years ago.  Maybe next year will be the time.

[Travelcat2]

For those of you that are interested in Hurtigruten, here is their board https://boards.cruisecritic.com/forum/663-hurtigruten/. If yon want information (reviews, etc.) you will Likely find it on CC but not on the Regent board.

[loriva]

10 hours ago, flossie009 said:

All cruises on the Regent website through till the end of November are now shown as "waitlisted". 

First cruises shown with pricing & availability are:

Mariner - Dec 05, 2020

Splendor - Dec 07, 2020

Navigator - Dec 10, 2020

Voyager - Jan 19, 2021

 

☹️ ☹️ ☹️

 

Explorer's first sailing showing availability is 21 December, Singapore to Sydney. 

 

Australia is having a new spike in cases, with new travel restrictions even internally.  If the 14-day quarantine for non-Australians is still in place by the time of the sailing, five ports of call would appear to need to be cancelled not to mention its disembarkation port.  It seems unrealistic this sailing will occur--at least without a vastly changed itinerary or if things open up in Australia.

[Gcto]

5 hours ago, loriva said:

 

Explorer's first sailing showing availability is 21 December, Singapore to Sydney. 

 

Australia is having a new spike in cases, with new travel restrictions even internally.  If the 14-day quarantine for non-Australians is still in place by the time of the sailing, five ports of call would appear to need to be cancelled not to mention its disembarkation port.  It seems unrealistic this sailing will occur--at least without a vastly changed itinerary or if things open up in Australia.

don't think it will happen. Our Australian friends tell us that the gov is clamping down fast and hard. Err on the side of... So I don't think they let cruise ships come in in December or January. Same for NZ. 

 

[loriva]

7 hours ago, Gcto said:

don't think it will happen. Our Australian friends tell us that the gov is clamping down fast and hard. Err on the side of... So I don't think they let cruise ships come in in December or January. Same for NZ. 

 

 

I believe you are correct.  But Regent will be collecting our final payment for this sailing in a few days.  It seems like more work for the line to collect the money on its normal timeline, then to have to do a second round of work when they cancel it.  I had my TA call Regent on Monday, but unlike other cruise lines Regent is sticking to its normal 150-day final payment deadline.

[flossie009]

21 hours ago, flossie009 said:

Other cruise-lines are looking to "test the water" soon:

Genting

Hurtigruten

 

It will be interesting to hear whether they successfully provide an enjoyable & safe experience for their customers.

 

Aida, the German based cruise-line, is planning to start short cruises next month:

Cruise Industry News

AIDA Cruises

[greykitty]

Aida is Carnival-owned, right?  Wonder how/if they'll use data from these ships to form their response plan to the CDC as well as gauge customer response.

[jawz33]

8 minutes ago, loriva said:

 

I believe you are correct.  But Regent will be collecting our final payment for this sailing in a few days.  It seems like more work for the line to collect the money on its normal timeline, then to have to do a second round of work when they cancel it.  I had my TA call Regent on Monday, but unlike other cruise lines Regent is sticking to its normal 150-day final payment deadline.

Your money in their pocket is a free loan for however long they can drag out your refund.

[cerise638]

Foreign and Commwealth Office has just updated its guidance and now advises against cruising for UK citizens

[flossie009]

2 hours ago, cerise638 said:

Foreign and Commwealth Office has just updated its guidance and now advises against cruising for UK citizens

 

This will not help Regent or the rest of the beleaguered cruise industry.

Independent

FCO

With this advice in place, travel insurance for any UK citizen taking a cruise is likely to be invalidated.

Let's hope the FCO lifts this blanket advice before Regent cruises recommence.

[GrJ Berkshire]

1 hour ago, flossie009 said:

 

This will not help Regent or the rest of the beleaguered cruise industry.

Independent

FCO

With this advice in place, travel insurance for any UK citizen taking a cruise is likely to be invalidated.

Let's hope the FCO lifts this blanket advice before Regent cruises recommence.

Disastrous news for any Brits cruising for probably well into 2021. With this news all insurance is invalidated. This ends any chance of UK Ports like Southampton opening up . It's hard not to think that cruise lines going under and major scrapping of cruise liners being inevitable.

It makes the talk about CDC protocols irrelevant to those this side of the pond. Regent ships in Europe have on our trips had a fair number of Brits on board - cannot see US passengers being able to make up these numbers, especially as they are currently banned from the EU.

[Travelcat2]

21 minutes ago, GrJ Berkshire said:

Disastrous news for any Brits cruising for probably well into 2021. With this news all insurance is invalidated. This ends any chance of UK Ports like Southampton opening up . It's hard not to think that cruise lines going under and major scrapping of cruise liners being inevitable.

It makes the talk about CDC protocols irrelevant to those this side of the pond. Regent ships in Europe have on our trips had a fair number of Brits on board - cannot see US passengers being able to make up these numbers, especially as they are currently banned from the EU.

 

I do understand that this will be difficult for the U.K. (not that this is an easy time for anyone).  And, if you feel that cruise lines that cater to Europeans will have financial difficulty, it is certainly possible.  However, IMO, Regent and Seabourn in particular, have more passengers from the U.S. than the rest of the world (FDR stated a couple of years ago that the U.S. and Canada represent 80% of Regent cruisers (of course, this can change based on itinerary).  So, the impact to these two cruise lines would likely not be dramatic.

 

I did not mention Crystal or Silversea.  Having cruised on both lines, I feel that Silversea has the greatest number of European passengers so they may have challenges.  Crystal has an increasing number of Asian passengers.  Unless Asia puts in similar restrictions, Crystal should be fine.  

 

Right now, the future of cruise lines that sail into or out of the U.S. is in the hands of the CDC (and other organizations that we cannot seem to agree on).  As far as Regent goes, they have stated that they are waiting for approval to sail from the CDC.

[Gcto]

13 hours ago, flossie009 said:

 

Aida, the German based cruise-line, is planning to start short cruises next month:

Cruise Industry News

AIDA Cruises

yes, AIDA will open cruising again. Keep in mind, this is mostly a German cruise line with German guest and German entertainment (no judgment here :-) )...  And they have a few limitations to start with . 

1. Considerable less ships start from Hamburg, Rostock, Kiel or Bremerhaven (that makes sense)

2. Only passengers from Germany, Austria or Switzerland are allowed to book. No other passengers. 

3. They plan short trips of 3 to 7 days

4. Number of passengers will be limited.

 

When and If other ports open up, they will integrate those into their program, but timeline is flexible and it will depend on whether hygiene standards can be maintained at those ports. 

 

After more ports open, regular "scheduling" will commence, depending on hygiene standards of the ships and...if they can meet standards set by the ports. 

 

[flossie009]

16 hours ago, GrJ Berkshire said:

Disastrous news for any Brits cruising for probably well into 2021

 

I do not share your extreme pessimism.

The UK FCO advice against cruising has only been reintroduced as the blanket advice against all but essential overseas travel is gradually lifted for specific countries.

IMO the UK FCO advice regarding cruise ship holidays will be further revised/relaxed when cruises recommence with acceptable health protocols.

However, in the meantime, the announcement & associated press reports will no doubt lead to less cruise bookings & more cancellation/refund requests; adversely affecting the cashflow of cruise lines and UK TAs ☹️

 

Latest from a UK Government Minister speaking to Sky News indicates  a probable relaxation of the no cruising advice by October this year.

Edited July 10, 2020 by flossie009

[BBWC]

Carnival saying today that they will not return to full capacity until 2022 “at the earliest”.
 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/07/10/carnival-corp-cruises-operations-capacity-coronavirus-2022/5405777002/

[Got2Cruise]

16 hours ago, Gcto said:

yes, AIDA will open cruising again. Keep in mind, this is mostly a German cruise line with German guest and German entertainment (no judgment here 🙂 )...  And they have a few limitations to start with . 

1. Considerable less ships start from Hamburg, Rostock, Kiel or Bremerhaven (that makes sense)

2. Only passengers from Germany, Austria or Switzerland are allowed to book. No other passengers. 

3. They plan short trips of 3 to 7 days

4. Number of passengers will be limited.

 

When and If other ports open up, they will integrate those into their program, but timeline is flexible and it will depend on whether hygiene standards can be maintained at those ports. 

 

After more ports open, regular "scheduling" will commence, depending on hygiene standards of the ships and...if they can meet standards set by the ports. 

 

I can see this as a model of how other lines can slowly open up. The previously published itineraries will be scraped and new feasible itineraries established. 

 

Covid tests and special mandatory insurance as required for entry to Caribbean islands may be put into place also. 

 

It seems from reading comments that some expect cruising to be like it was pre Covid-19. 

[Travelcat2]

I am concerned about any Carnival brand sailing so soon.  If Carnival messes up (again), it could ruin chances for other cruise lines out of the U.S. to begin sailing.  I would much rather see a luxury cruise line begin cruising as I have more faith in smaller ships having a better handle on the situation than a ship with over 3,000 passengers plus crew.  

[loriva]

Not apples to apples, but I thought Caribill's summary of CCL's statement to stock analysts made some interesting points on when cruising might start again and how that might be of interest to readers on the Regent boards.

 

"Summary of CCL Corp stock analysts conference call on 7/10/2020:

 

Of course Princess is part of CCL Corp, so is included as part of the information presented.

 

So far 53 ships are in full pause mode. Ships have sailed over 400,000 nautical miles to return crews home. Less than 10,000 crew members remain to get home.

 

The company has raised $10 billion in capital. Combined with earlier debt, average interest rate on loans is 5%.

 

Current burn rate is $650 million a month. With $7.6 billion liquidity, the company can go at least a year with no income. More money can be raised if needed. Expenses are still being cut. Marketing is essentially suspended. They are working to extend maturities of loans due to be paid in 2021.

 

Nine ships were scheduled to be delivered in 2020 and 2021. With delays averaging five months, there will now be five ships delivered in this time period, two in 2020 and three in 2021. There are no plans to cancel any ships that are contracted to be built.

 

There are plans to eliminate 13 ships from the current fleet, a reduction of 9% of passenger capacity. So far only two have been announced. Ships are being sold to areas where they will not be competing with CCL Corp brands.

 

It will be 2022 before capacity will again reach 2nd quarter 2020 capacity. With less efficient ships being the ones leaving the fleet and the newer ships being more efficient, when the capacity again reaches 2020 capacity, the fleet will be more efficient that it was in 2020.

 

If the top 15 ships in 2019 revenue were to sail again at full capacity, it would cover basic corporate and operating expenses. An additional 10 ships, also at full capacity, would cover the cost of the remaining ships being in pause mode.

 

Carnival Corp ships had less than their market share of Covid-19 incidents, but being the largest company received the most media attention.

 

Germany is closest in being able to resume cruising. Italy is next closest. (AIDA, a German brand will resume sailing with three ships in August, all on cruises with no ports on the itinerary other than the home port.)

 

Many of their brands have passengers from one area being over 90% of their customers. These include AIDA (Germany), P&O UK (UK), Costa (Europe), P&O Australia (Australia) and Carnival (USA). This can allow reopening with local cruisers as is being done in August with AIDA.

 

As of June 21, 2020, cumulative advanced bookings for the full year of 2021 capacity currently available for sale remain within historical ranges at prices that are down in the low to mid-single digits range, on a comparable basis, including the negative yield impact of FCCs and onboard credits applied. (The historical range includes going back to 2011.) Many FCCs exist that await new bookings that will utilize them.

 

Average passenger age on future bookings is 45. World cruise bookings are not doing as well as shorter cruises, probably because potential passengers do not know if the itineraries can actually be kept.

 

As of May 31, 2020, the current portion of customer deposits was $2.6 billion, the majority of which are FCCs. $121 million of the company's customer deposit balance relates to third quarter sailings and $353 million relates to fourth quarter sailings. So over $2 billion is for cruises after 2020.

 

There was an apology for the delay in providing refunds. As of June 21, 2020, approximately half of guests affected have requested cash refunds. Despite substantially reduced marketing and selling expenses, the company continues to see demand from new bookings for 2021. For the most recent booking period, the first three weeks in June 2020, almost 60 percent of 2021 bookings were new bookings. The remaining 2021 booking volumes resulted from guests applying their FCCs to specific future cruises. By the end of the third quarter this year, it is expected that incoming deposits will match outgoing refunds.

 

The company is not yet in serious discussions with the CDC on cruise resumption other than meeting the criteria for the current CDC hold on US sailings. Once governmental permission is given to resume cruising from Florida, cruising can resume in about 30 days. If a new crew must be quarantined first, it could take longer than 30 days.

 

The AIDA sailings will initially be at reduced capacity with social distancing (which they prefer to call physical distancing) in public venues. They will follow local guidelines for this which in Germany is currently 1.5 meters. They will start slow and observe behavior.

 

There is a built up demand for cruising. They will restart country by country, destination by destination. Over 1000 bookings were made the first day the AIDA August cruises were announced.

 

There was nothing mentioned about reduced capacities in the future for any of the Carnival Corp cruise brands, but expect bookings to follow the willingness of society to socially gather. Demand is expected to be more than needed to fill the ships in a staggered restart.

 

All Carnival Corp brands can operate between 30% and 50% capacity and generate positive cash flow. The number varies by ship size."

 

Edited July 12, 2020 by loriva
Misspelling

[mrlevin]

All this from CCL (and RCG too especially with respect to JV with Pullmantur and TUI and completing purchase of Silversea ) yet all we here from NCLH regarding disposing of ships and order of return of ships is crickets.  After they cancel October and November cruises I sure hope they come out with new itineraries that are similar to what is happening in Europe or what Crystal is doing in Caribbean.

 

Marc

Edited July 12, 2020 by mrlevin

[loriva]

39 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

All this from CCL (and RCG too especially with respect to JV with Pullmantur and TUI and completing purchase of Silversea ) yet all we here from NCLH regarding disposing of ships and order of return of ships is crickets.  After they cancel October and November cruises I sure hope they come out with new itineraries that are similar to what is happening in Europe or what Crystal is doing in Caribbean.

 

Marc

 

Based on our cruise suddenly showing "waitlisted" across the board, hints on these boards from Pcardad, and NCLH new habit of cancelling new batches of cruises around the 15th of the month, we fully expect our NYC to Miami Navigator cruise scheduled for 30 October to be cancelled this week.  And, almost simultaneously, our TA will take final payment for Regent for the Singapore to Sydney cruise on Explorer scheduled for 20 December that Regent will almost certainly have to cancel--or significantly modify the itinerary.  Beyond the reason that they can, I still find it perplexing that Regent is not modifying their final payment date until closer to sailings as other lines, including NCLH Oceania, is doing.  It may be a short-term advantage to gather these funds, but seems more-costly long term.

[docmark]

Just saw "wait list" sign on all categories of Mariner Oct.12 (10 days) Cruise, planned for LA to mexican coast. So obviously it is cancelled

[Travelcat2]

6 minutes ago, docmark said:

Just saw "wait list" sign on all categories of Mariner Oct.12 (10 days) Cruise, planned for LA to mexican coast. So obviously it is cancelled

 

Not necessarily.  At some point, Regent needs to waitlist cruises in order to maintain a lower passenger load.  Our TA (a big seller of Regent cruises) feels - so this is not a fact -- that some Caribbean and Mexico cruises that are scheduled for October and November may sail while itineraries that are far away likely will not.  They are fairly certain that one cruise (to the Caribbean in November) will sail but is waitlisted due to capacity.

[SusieQft]

29 minutes ago, Travelcat2 said:

Our TA (a big seller of Regent cruises) feels - so this is not a fact -- that some Caribbean and Mexico cruises that are scheduled for October and November may sail while itineraries that are far away likely will not.

 

TC, what you say makes a lot of sense for the Nov. 28 and Dec. 21 Splendor cruises that are waitlisted.  But to me it does not sound at all likely for the Mariner, the one with west coast itineraries in October.

 

I had been monitoring the occupancy of the three October LA round trips on Mariner, and each time I looked the number of bookings was less than before.  The most recent stats I have for each sailing are:

 

On June 16, the Oct. 7 sailing was 24% booked.

On June 30, the Oct. 12 sailing was 31% booked.

On June 25, the Oct. 22 sailing was 24% booked.

 

That seems low enough that they could have left them open a while longer if sailing was still a possibility.  These 3 segments were to be followed by a circumnavigation of South America.  The next thing scheduled after that is the World Cruise starting from Miami on Jan. 5, which is the date for Mariner on the infamous list purported to be targeted startup dates.

 

The only way I could possibly imagine the October Mariner Mexico itineraries sailing would be if they added a bunch of new itineraries on the west coast, Panama Canal, and/or Caribbean to replace the South America route.  I guess that could happen, but the longer it goes on without happening the less likely it seems to be.

 

True, they did just move the Mariner to Long Beach, but that could have easily waited at least another couple of months if it were in preparation for sailing on Oct. 7.  I just don't see it happening, but we should know soon.

Edited July 13, 2020 by SusieQft