Substantial Doubt of 'Going Concern'

[Newleno]

27 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

It is an SEC filing.  It's not like they are just being nice guys giving you information.

It is required by law.

the saddest part is some of the posters dont even know it is the law, 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Newleno

[seaman11]

10 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

 ....... and other parts of the county continue to rise. Flattening needs to be country wide, not just by state or local ..... you have months and months of a slow decline at best. Not all cruisers come from states with declining cases. 

thats true, however i suspect the southern ports will open first, and a few cruises will start there, in florida and galveston for example.  i think ny will take some time, and i wouldnt book a alaska / canada cruise this year, 

[CruisingNole]

Believing that NCL, Carnival and RCI will all survive is complete naivety. The product demand post-covid is simply not going to be anywhere near what it once was, and probably never will be. Of the 3, RCI and Carnival are in a much better position financially to ride this out. NCL will fail.

[tallnthensome]

3 minutes ago, mnsweeps said:

Few cheerleaders are still not in acceptance phase.

.... and all of their optimism has got them nowhere except back to square one and all their beliefs have been squashed up to this point. SMH .......

[tallnthensome]

3 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

thats true, however i suspect the southern ports will open first, and a few cruises will start there, in florida and galveston for example.  i think ny will take some time, and i wouldnt book a alaska / canada cruise this year, 

Florida and Texas are still hotspots ..... even if they do go it won’t be enough to sustain them and all their expenses .......

[kwokpot]

1 minute ago, tallnthensome said:

.... and all of their optimism has got them nowhere except back to square one and all their beliefs have been squashed up to this point. SMH .......

People fail to see what the real circumstances are and the whole picture. All they want is just to go on a cruise and wonder why everyone is so down on that. They fail to see the bigger picture. It has NOTHING to do with being optimistic or pessimistic. It's seeing the FACTS and understanding the bigger picture.

[tallnthensome]

Just now, kwokpot said:

People fail to see what the real circumstances are and the whole picture. All they want is just to go on a cruise and wonder why everyone is so down on that. They fail to see the bigger picture. It has NOTHING to do with being optimistic or pessimistic. It's seeing the FACTS and understanding the bigger picture.

Truth ^^^^

[Corliss]

They are required in their securities filings to determine if they are a "going concern" for the next 12 months and if there are doubts about having adequate finances for that they must issue a "substantial doubt going concern" warning in their filings.  But, as they outlined in the filing they are working on steps to mitigate their situation.

 

It has been expected that lots of companies are going to have to issue going concern warnings during this pandemic shut down.

 

https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2020/apr/going-concern-tips-for-auditors-during-coronavirus-pandemic.html

[dcipjr]

I'm glad I didn't let the CruiseNext lady talk me into 4 deposits when we cruised back in February.

 

Kinda wish I didn't get the 2 that I did, but hopefully I'll still get to use them. Someday.

[Formula280SS]

9 minutes ago, CruisingNole said:

Believing that NCL, Carnival and RCI will all survive is complete naivety. The product demand post-covid is simply not going to be anywhere near what it once was, and probably never will be. Of the 3, RCI and Carnival are in a much better position financially to ride this out. NCL will fail.

 

CCL, when it raised about $6.4B in mostly @ 11.5% new debt, was "back-stopped" in substance by the Federal Reserve; SOME believe because of the relationship between CCL and the current Administration.

 

NCL (1/3 the size, generally, of CCL) has already raised $400M in Exchangeable Senior Notes (L Catterton, a PE firm) due in 2024 with convertible features to Preferred Stock then Common Stock), contingent on raising another $1B in capital (Equity and Debt).  One would proffer that NCL's $650M Debt offering might look a lot like CCL's with regards to involvement of the Federal Reserve and the terms and conditions.  More likely than not IMO as if not CCL would appear to have been favored.

 

NCL SEC reports that it believes its' Private Islands, on the books for roughly $260M are fair value more appropriately at $720M.

 

So, it looks like they get the Capital, totaling $1.4B.

 

The big question is the elephant in the room: "Customer Deposits and Advances."  If they have to make those in Cash Refunds, the $1.4B would appear to go away quite fast.  NCL is currently discussing/negotiating with the arrangement with the Credit Card partners as to the requirements in this regard.

 

IMO, they will return; just don't know who will own them.  The lenders upon conversion or as 1st priority as creditors to a Chapter 11?

[mrlevin]

I blame this all on the hubris of one man - Mr. Del Rio.  😢

[Drummer72]

PEOPLE this was a SEC filing. Not a press release.  Frank Del Rio & Genting will not let this happen.  

 

They will secure the loans they need to carry them into 2021.  The SEC filing is just a way to try and stay off paying debt. 

 

You guys read the headline and drink the “Kool Aid” every time.  NCL will survive this.  If they do not.  No cruise line can survive. another word it too big to fail.

 

Most likely outcome is a PEF (private equity firm) will make a bid for a controlling preferred stock takeover. Then it’s business as usual.

 

[sanger727]

31 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

thats true, however i suspect the southern ports will open first, and a few cruises will start there, in florida and galveston for example.  i think ny will take some time, and i wouldnt book a alaska / canada cruise this year, 

 

yes, the but problem is the that the nature of travel brings people to other places. So, to say NY is still a problem, but let's cruise out of Florida just means that let's bring a bunch of potentially infected NY people to Florida. And let's take all these potentially infected people from the US and drop them off on an island somewhere where they don't have a lot of cases and don't have the infrastructure to handle a lot of cases. It's a disaster in the making. While I understand the battled these islands are having where they need tourist dollars; I think at the end, the fear of  bringing thousands of people from the US will win out and they will not open to cruise ships in the near future. 

[Fredric22]

30 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

Florida and Texas are still hotspots ..... even if they do go it won’t be enough to sustain them and all their expenses .......

Florida is a hot spot?  In which country?  

[seaman11]

1 minute ago, sanger727 said:

 

yes, the but problem is the that the nature of travel brings people to other places. So, to say NY is still a problem, but let's cruise out of Florida just means that let's bring a bunch of potentially infected NY people to Florida. And let's take all these potentially infected people from the US and drop them off on an island somewhere where they don't have a lot of cases and don't have the infrastructure to handle a lot of cases. It's a disaster in the making. While I understand the battled these islands are having where they need tourist dollars; I think at the end, the fear of  bringing thousands of people from the US will win out and they will not open to cruise ships in the near future. 

there will be screenings of course, temp checks and such.  im thinking in 90 days from now there wont be all these ppl infected from up north,  thats what i mean by barring any setback covid wise.   we shall see how they would handle that.  but fully open states by then it seems, so ppl would be able to travel freely anyway, cruise ships or not. 

[PelicanBill]

The is both a required SEC filing AND a press release. 3 of them, in fact, all posted on the Investor relation site for NCL.

 

It is a required signal that finances are precarious in the short term - meaning about 6 months. Exactly what several of us were saying in response to the last press release. And that's give or take depending on debt restructuring, securing more debt, and the rate of cancellations and refunds requests. Taking on debt likely does mean accepting a financial controlling interest from a private equity firm or something similar.

 

it DOES mean that NCL is admitting they cannot sustain as they are, and must make financial changes to survive or else enter Chapter 11.  

 

Let's hope it does not come to Chapter 11. That process injects 4-6 months of additional uncertainty while they go through restructuring.

[SAPMAN]

11 minutes ago, Drummer72 said:

PEOPLE this was a SEC filing. Not a press release.  Frank Del Rio & Genting will not let this happen.  

 

They will secure the loans they need to carry them into 2021.  The SEC filing is just a way to try and stay off paying debt. 

 

You guys read the headline and drink the “Kool Aid” every time.  NCL will survive this.  If they do not.  No cruise line can survive. another word it too big to fail.

 

Most likely outcome is a PEF (private equity firm) will make a bid for a controlling preferred stock takeover. Then it’s business as usual.

 

Are you buying stock today?  Proof is in the pudding.

Edited May 5, 2020 by SAPMAN
Spell

[seaman11]

2 minutes ago, Fredric22 said:

Florida is a hot spot?  In which country?  

yeah its hot right now,  lol

 

[jaja]

47 minutes ago, reveur15 said:

I cancelled 2 cruises today and they said refund will take up to 90 days.

Not sure if they will really refund.

But My credit card company says refund should not take more than 15 days, after that i can chargeback.

I will probably do that.

 

Thanks...but I must be really dense...I just looked up T&Cs for my cruise (booked 8/2019  and it says 

"Period before departure notification of cancellation received by us Cancellation charge per person cancelling* more than 42 days Loss of deposit 41 - 30 days 35% 29 - 15 days 50% 14 - 8 days 80% 7 days and less+ 95%"  

How would I loose deposit ..cancelling months ahead??????

[tallnthensome]

4 minutes ago, Fredric22 said:

Florida is a hot spot?  In which country?  

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news4jax.com/news/florida/2020/04/03/is-florida-americas-next-coronavirus-hotspot/%3FoutputType%3Damp

 

 way more cases than reported 

[seaman11]

1 minute ago, jaja said:

Thanks...but I must be really dense...I just looked up T&Cs for my cruise (booked 8/2019  and it says 

"Period before departure notification of cancellation received by us Cancellation charge per person cancelling* more than 42 days Loss of deposit 41 - 30 days 35% 29 - 15 days 50% 14 - 8 days 80% 7 days and less+ 95%"  

How would I loose deposit ..cancelling months ahead??????

2019?

[jaja]

1 minute ago, seaman11 said:

2019?

Booked 2019..sailing  Nov 2020.

[spanishguy1970]

but i bet some of these executives will still get millions of dollars in their pockets 🙂 LOL... It was obvious that they were looking into filling bankruptcy, only those cheerleaders that had false hope believed there was a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow :-)....

[seaman11]

3 minutes ago, jaja said:

Booked 2019..sailing  Nov 2020.

thats just a discliamer message in case you are inside 120 days. you will get a full refund. 

[billyu]

6 minutes ago, jaja said:

Thanks...but I must be really dense...I just looked up T&Cs for my cruise (booked 8/2019  and it says 

"Period before departure notification of cancellation received by us Cancellation charge per person cancelling* more than 42 days Loss of deposit 41 - 30 days 35% 29 - 15 days 50% 14 - 8 days 80% 7 days and less+ 95%"  

How would I loose deposit ..cancelling months ahead??????

'

Is that not after final payment?