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Stickman1990

How long will cruising be delayed? Crystal v Other Luxury Lines timing

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Posted (edited)

Well today Seabourn have announced their suspension of cruising into October and November across their fleet, imagine the impact on their cash flow that will have with many guests sure to opt for a refund as opposed to FCC

 

https://www.seabourn.com/en_US/news/pause-global-cruise-operations.html

 

So no more pussyfooting around a month by month cancellation announcement for them - they've made what I am sure was a difficult decision that provides their guests with some certainty to allow them to plan ahead

 

We saw a video message from Tom Wolber, Crystal's CEO to crew and other staff released around 12 hours ago - but that didn't reference any timing for a return to sailing

 

While we would all like to see Crystal resume sailing as soon as possible and safe we need to be pragmatic - so just how long will it be until Crystal can realistically resume sailing? and how much notice should they try and give guests of cancellation of future cruises?

 

At this stage our next cruise is in Jan 2021 as part of the WC2021 - but I can't help but wonder whether it proceeds and certainly whether the planned itinerary is viable

Edited by Stickman1990

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You can assume it is at least until Nov 2020.  At that point, the potential second wave of infection should be very clear.  If it happens as they predicted, no cruise until march 2021 at the earliest.  
 

If no second wave, maybe November or December is the best hope.  And that is assuming the cruise line will sail with 30% occupancy rate.  They might just cancel all together.  

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I too read the info from Seabourn along with holland America and princess suspending many cruises until later this year and throughout 2020.

 

I have serious doubts I will be cruising in late October or anytime this year. 😪

 

nancy

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The "other shoes" are beginning to drop. I just received an e-mail on my office account from Princess and they have essentially cancelled, with a few exceptions, everything up to Dec 1, and even some beyond that. 

 

Ideally, I would like to see all lines cancel until January 1, but I also understand that the logistics of that many cancellations may very well overwhelm the already strained capacity of the entire system, both cruise and financial sectors, to process that many refunds. Never mind the volume of calls that would overwhelm the Reservations teams! Not sure what the solution might be.

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Posted (edited)

It’s interesting to see how all this will unfold as news sources report RCCL is now repatriating most of their crew via multiple ships (while still not canceling some June cruises); Carnival is planning an Aug 1 restart (with the CDC responding that they had not discussed anything with the cruise lines yet); NCL is announcing they “might” file for bankruptcy (which is causing a run on their refunds).  It’s all over the map. I applaud Seabourn for being forthcoming rather than dragging it out, but I do understand the need to stagger cash flow.

Edited by Cruise-y

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Remember that Seabourn is a small part of the overall Carnival Corp picture.  If Carnival cruises are sailing, there's probably more cash flow from one Carnival ship than all of Seabourn's fleet combined.

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9 minutes ago, FlyerTalker said:

If Carnival cruises are sailing, there's probably more cash flow from one Carnival ship than all of Seabourn's fleet combined.


Just how many Carnival ships are sailing though?

 

They're going to have plenty To deal with from their Princess subsidiary - the lawyers are lining up for them  with actions from the incidents in Japan & Australia (there may we’ll be others) 

 

I don’t think Carnival have quite as many plates to spin as you might think 

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There are too many variables to predict the future of Covid virus 19 in the real world let alone that in the cruising world.

Expects will say it depends on how the world reacts let alone what the second and third virus wave will be like.

But my view is that it is better to hold on to your cash up to the last minute.

 

There is some guidance as we go further down road.

We all know by now the NCL saga and cruisers are better informed there.

CCL and RCL has by law required to file their 8-K  statement to the SEC within 4 days if there is any issues with them on whether there are changes about them operating under the 'going concern'  read bankruptcy concern. 

 

My own guess is that if we still have a cruising industry it would be so different that we cannot even imagine what it would be like now. So hold on to your money now and decide later if you have to.

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5 hours ago, FlyerTalker said:

Remember that Seabourn is a small part of the overall Carnival Corp picture.  If Carnival cruises are sailing, there's probably more cash flow from one Carnival ship than all of Seabourn's fleet combined.

I know that Carnival talked about a date but I think they have back tracked a bit on it.  I don't think August 1 is locked in stone and my guess is it won't happen.  

 

Carnival has gotten a cash infusion so I am thinking this is why they have gone ahead and cancelled cruises on several of the fleets they own.  

 

https://thepointsguy.com/news/carnival-did-not-receive-bailout/

 

Keith

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Wonder when some of the popular ports will re-open and allow ships?   I would expect there may be significant changes in itineraries when plans are released from the lines who are providing new open dates.

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10 minutes ago, Keith1010 said:

Larry, first they said August 1.  Then they backed off that according to news reports I saw on financial shows.  Now they are saying August 1.  We will see if regulators let them sail and if ports welcome them. 

 

I suspect they will make it dirt cheap to sail. 

 

Should be interesting.  I still can't see them sailing this early and personally it's crazy IMHO to do eight ships at once.

 

I think whoever goes first should try one ship, evaluate the cruise in terms of what went right and what went wrong.  By wrong I don't mean getting the virus.  I mean things that didn't go according to plan whatever that might be.  Of course I feel the same way about other things on land.  You develop a plan and you see if it works when you implement it.  Essentially a trial.  Oh well.

 

Keith

 

I agree with you on all points. What gets me is two of the ships named were Elation and Fascination, two of their "old tubs" that go back to their 80's Booze Cruise days! If you are going to go out on that limb, use your newer ships! Anyway, I suspect the CDC will have something to say about this experiment.

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Yes, they are using their older ships in the ports to nowhere. The people who will sail on them are most likely booze cruisers or first timers.

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I put more emphasis in that article on what I thought was a massive number of previously announced cancellations more than the few cruises still on the table that I doubt will be able to happen.

 

Roy

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Posted (edited)

This is all mind boggling to me.  I think they plan to take those ships to their private Cays for 3-4 days and then it IS just a booze cruise.  No social distancing there!   I'm guessing the reasoning is the time period is so short it will be too fast for any Covid cases to "show up" and cause havoc - and who cares if 2,000 infected people are dumped back into the mainstream. From what I see elsewhere, people are chomping at the bit to sign up.  Hopefully the CDC will weigh in, but who knows anymore with the strange world we're in.

Edited by Cruise-y

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1 hour ago, Cruise-y said:

This is all mind boggling to me.  I think they plan to take those ships to their private Cays for 3-4 days and then it IS just a booze cruise.  No social distancing there!   I'm guessing the reasoning is the time period is so short it will be too fast for any Covid cases to "show up" and cause havoc - and who cares if 2,000 infected people are dumped back into the mainstream. From what I see elsewhere, people are chomping at the bit to sign up.  Hopefully the CDC will weigh in, but who knows anymore with the strange world we're in.


Darwin in motion.

 

I’m not holding my breath on this administration putting the brakes on anyone or anything anymore at this point.  They were planning on disbanding the task force until the public outcry and mocking.

 

Vince

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I found a link to an Alaskan newspaper that said 80% of all the cruises to Alaska have been canceled by Carnival, Holland, Royal and their sub-brands.  They also own many of the resorts and tour companies as well.

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7 minutes ago, ChatKat in Ca. said:

I found a link to an Alaskan newspaper that said 80% of all the cruises to Alaska have been canceled by Carnival, Holland, Royal and their sub-brands.  They also own many of the resorts and tour companies as well.

 

Well this may put the nail in the coffin of the other 20%. The British Columbia government has announced that Vancouver and Victoria will be closed to all but the smallest (+/- 300 pax) ships for the remainder of the year. Unless the US government amends the PVSA that pretty much finishes the Alaska season.

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Back on topic:  What is Crystal waiting for?  It should be pretty clear they will not be the only cruise line sailing around Europe in July and August so why not just bite the bullet and cancel those cruises.  Perhaps they want to push out any refunds which they need to do for those dates as far out as possible.  This whole situation (not refund situation) is just sad for all cruiselines.  Its like taking a bandaid off...just rip it off, don’t take it off a little at a time.

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4 hours ago, Roland4 said:

Well this may put the nail in the coffin of the other 20%. The British Columbia government has announced that Vancouver and Victoria will be closed to all but the smallest (+/- 300 pax) ships for the remainder of the year. Unless the US government amends the PVSA that pretty much finishes the Alaska season.

 

Anyone for Prince Rupert or Port Hardy (both of which are BC Ferry terminals)??

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, BWIVince said:


Darwin in motion.

 

I’m not holding my breath on this administration putting the brakes on anyone or anything anymore at this point.  They were planning on disbanding the task force until the public outcry and mocking.

 

Vince

No one has made timely decisions regarding Covid-19..  Best to stick to those areas that are within your personal sweet zones of expertise.

Edited by almostretired
mis-spelling

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This afternoon the July - August 9 Esprit itineraries switched from $$ to "Call for Availability". Looks like Crystal is considering those for the next wave of cancellations.

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12 minutes ago, almostretired said:

You might stay out of the political arena.  After all, look what happened in NYS and NYC.  Bestseller to stick to those areas that are within our personal sweet zones of expertise.


My comment wasn’t about any particular party and was not political — I’m commenting that the government is moving in the opposite direction from what the OP was hoping for.  That’s just a fact.

 

NYC and NYS would be EXACTLY the reason I have concerns about that — but that part is just my personal opinion.  The above is fact.

 

Vince

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, cruisr said:

Back on topic:  What is Crystal waiting for?  It should be pretty clear they will not be the only cruise line sailing around Europe in July and August so why not just bite the bullet and cancel those cruises.  Perhaps they want to push out any refunds which they need to do for those dates as far out as possible.  This whole situation (not refund situation) is just sad for all cruiselines.  Its like taking a bandaid off...just rip it off, don’t take it off a little at a time.

 

My guess is controlling the work/refund flow at a manageable level given the available staffing resources, all of whom are working from home. My personal opinion is, barring some miracle, that anyone with a cruise booked between now and December 1 should operate on the assumption it will be cancelled. 

Edited by Roland4

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Good discussion and it’s interesting there’s really no one surprised by December - my fear is just how much farther out it will eventually extend 

 

I do have one confession - I'm really enjoying not receiving the multiple advertisement emails for future cruises right now - Crystal’s have stopped along with most of the others, although Oceania are still trying to flog theirs 

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