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weberman

Are we seeing the end of cruising?

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Yet, here is some insight from another LA Times travel writer David Lazarus: It is mainly about NCL but applies to Carnival/Princess as well

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/column-cruise-ship-industry-sinking-120054719.html 

Lazarus makes some interesting points! I had a bout of Norovirirus on one of my cruises and it was terrible.

 

NCL will probably not survive, but no  matter as it will have little or no effect on the U.S. economy.

 

My DW and I are both 76, so we are done with cruising.

 

Lazarus made this interesting comment: 

But the larger issue, which Norwegian touched on in its filing, is the public's growing perception of cruise ships as a fast track to sickness. It should be obvious to all that you're taking an enormous gamble as soon as you step aboard. (ALL CRUISE SHIPS)

 

The COVID19 virus makes the Norovirus look like a walk in the park! How many people will return to cruising?

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Once a vaccine is produced cruising will be back big time, humans soon forget. 

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Until a vaccine. Itsgoing to be hard to cruise if you don’t want to get sick.  You will have a bunch of drunk people doing what they shouldn’t.  I being one of them.  You can’t wear a mask and drink.   
When cruising opens up and people get sick on the ships. That will be a. Major blow

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Even without a vaccine, herd immunity will provide protection. Cruising will be back, maybe with less players, maybe with less passengers per ships, maybe with individual quarantine staterooms. 

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I think it's hard to tell at this point. We do see a lot of posts here from cruisers who can't wait to cruise again, but Cruise Critic members are usually devoted cruisers, so I don't think we can confirm a trend from that. How will the less addicted cruisers feel, and how many non cruisers will feel the urge to book one for the first time? The industry has certainly gotten a lot of bad publicity in recent months. I have been a faithful cruiser but would be reluctant to book one now until a vaccine arrives. We'll have to wait and see how the final numbers shake down after all these restrictions are finally lifted. Impossible to accurately predict at this point.

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At this point I am hoping that what comes out of this is a smaller, more customer service focused industry.  One that is more focused on maintaining a quality experience on ship and in port.

 

Over the last 10 years the change has been huge and in many ways not positive.  Not so much the ship board experience, but the degradation of the port experience, especially in Alaska and the Caribbean.

 

10 years ago you would see 1, maybe 2 ships in port at the same time in Alaskan ports.  These days 5 + is not unusual.

 

I would not be disappointed to see the size of the mass market industry to be cut in half with the trend to larger and larger mega ships ended.

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The cruise companies have to sail again. They can't afford to wait until 2021.

 

The question is who will they target as customers? IMO, the brands with the oldest customers are in trouble because they are the ones who suffer horrendous death rates from covid. 

 

Not a coincidence that Carnival brand has been the first to announce resumption of operations. Cheap and cheerful. Short itineraries, and easy access for Americans. I expect that their cruises will be loaded with younger pax. Party!

 

I would also expect that the most popular vessels would be the new mega ships with all the bells and whistles.

 

I would also expect that the infection rate would be high, and the partiers will bring the disease to their hometowns. 

 

Yes, I wouldn't sail from an American port until there is a vaccine.

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I think... the thing is that ships cost a a lot to keep either running , at warm lay-up or at cold lay-up......

 

Cruising in a business they need cash flow.... the longer cruising is stopped   .... and with no set  start date.....

which the cruise companies have no control over.... as is it up to each country to allow them to dock...

 

They will have to start making decisions about weather or not to move some of their fleet from warm lay-up to cold lay up

which I believe is about a third of the standing costs...... but once at cold lay-up  it could talk a couple months or longer to get it back up, ready for service.....

 

Then do they break even if the ship is running 50% full... or is it 75% full ( i don't know )

 

So when you stand back and look at it..... there is lot at stake... the the wrong decision how could send the company under...         

 

So for the sake of the cruise companies  there will have to start some operations by mid July or August.......

 

to get some cash flow....... so will it be the end of cruising...... maybe not.... but it will be different......

 

the above it just the thought of somebody whom has been in lockdown a bit long....

 

Cheers Don  

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1 hour ago, cynbar said:

I think it's hard to tell at this point. We do see a lot of posts here from cruisers who can't wait to cruise again, but Cruise Critic members are usually devoted cruisers, so I don't think we can confirm a trend from that. How will the less addicted cruisers feel, and how many non cruisers will feel the urge to book one for the first time? The industry has certainly gotten a lot of bad publicity in recent months. I have been a faithful cruiser but would be reluctant to book one now until a vaccine arrives. We'll have to wait and see how the final numbers shake down after all these restrictions are finally lifted. Impossible to accurately predict at this point.

 

Add to all that, their current base of loyal customers will be passing on in significant amounts each year due to a clientele that is a much elderly demographic.  I've often wondered over the last year whether the industry will be capable of "replacing" their base.  While I think some of that can be done, it will be a huge challenge to get the numbers that will be needed to replace all those that will pass on or stop cruising or cruise less.

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NCL will probably not survive, but no  matter as it will have little or no effect on the U.S. economy.

 

NCL will survive. The question is whether the current stock holder will have anything in 2 years. NCL could go through bankruptcy reorganization (chapter 11), not liquidation (chapter 7). The debt holders will get the company, and then run it.

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56 minutes ago, npcl said:

At this point I am hoping that what comes out of this is a smaller, more customer service focused industry.  One that is more focused on maintaining a quality experience on ship and in port.

 

Over the last 10 years the change has been huge and in many ways not positive.  Not so much the ship board experience, but the degradation of the port experience, especially in Alaska and the Caribbean.

 

10 years ago you would see 1, maybe 2 ships in port at the same time in Alaskan ports.  These days 5 + is not unusual.

 

I would not be disappointed to see the size of the mass market industry to be cut in half with the trend to larger and larger mega ships ended.

 

Here's hoping all of that happens. 

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41 minutes ago, Outerdog said:

 

Whatever. Maybe I read their total liquidity was ~$4B after the new money. Who cares.

 

 

 

I care.  If it's $1B or $2B or $6B or $4B.  They are NOT the same.  If people are going to cite facts, they need to cite them correctly or not get defensive if someone else corrects them with the truth.  We NEED more truth in this world.

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1 hour ago, antsp said:

Once a vaccine is produced cruising will be back big time, humans soon forget. 

And what happens if a vaccine is not developed?

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We feel cruising will survive but we may not recognize the product. Boarding requirements will likely become increasingly stringent with numbers denied boarding. Buffets will probably be not self serve.

 

Companies will survive but once again we may not recognize them.

 

At any rate like many others on these boards we’ll cruise again.

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1 hour ago, Outerdog said:

 

Shucks. You got me.

Bottom line they do now have liquidity to get them into 2021.  Not sure I agree with the 18 month line they are putting out.

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2 hours ago, weberman said:

Yet, here is some insight from another LA Times travel writer David Lazarus: It is mainly about NCL but applies to Carnival/Princess as well

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/column-cruise-ship-industry-sinking-120054719.html 

Lazarus makes some interesting points! I had a bout of Norovirirus on one of my cruises and it was terrible.

 

NCL will probably not survive, but no  matter as it will have little or no effect on the U.S. economy.

 

My DW and I are both 76, so we are done with cruising.

 

Lazarus made this interesting comment: 

But the larger issue, which Norwegian touched on in its filing, is the public's growing perception of cruise ships as a fast track to sickness. It should be obvious to all that you're taking an enormous gamble as soon as you step aboard. (ALL CRUISE SHIPS)

 

The COVID19 virus makes the Norovirus look like a walk in the park! How many people will return to cruising?

 

I agree with you and I do not think that all the magical thinking in the world will allow Princess to survive if a vaccine is not found for COVID-19 and the cruise lines can guarantee that you will not have a chance of getting deathly sick on a ship.  

 

There have been numerous articles in Forbes and other economic reporting that CCL and others are going to have a hard time steering clear of bankruptcy.   Probably why we are not getting promised refunds back from Princess at this time.

 

If the economy does not recovery and the recessions drags on people are not going to be thinking about cruising but just getting by in everyday life.  

 

Die hard cruisers and COVID-19 deniers probably will return to cruising but it will not be the cruising experience they were use to and there just may not be that many places that want cruise ships in their ports.  Plus you can almost bet the cost will go up just like they are predicting airline tickets could increase by 50% too because of less seat availability on planes do to social distance seating.

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2 hours ago, weberman said:

 

 

NCL will probably not survive, but no  matter as it will have little or no effect on the U.S. economy.

 

 

 

 

Maybe having NCL restructure will not be a complete blow to the US economy but it was forecast that the revenue contributing to the US economy for 2020 was (that was before CoVid) was forecasted to be over $30 Billion (with a B).  You may not be looking at all those that count on the travel and leisure industry for their income (travel agents, hotels, airlines, food services, tours, etc, etc, etc).  

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Through all this - I have realized I am no longer a die-hard cruiser. My thought was if I get on another ship or my next ship, it maybe a river cruise (I loved my last river cruise). 100 people is fine for size for me. I have no desire right now to get on a ship with 4000 other people.

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3 hours ago, jakeT said:

Until a vaccine. Itsgoing to be hard to cruise if you don’t want to get sick.  You will have a bunch of drunk people doing what they shouldn’t.  I being one of them.  You can’t wear a mask and drink.   
When cruising opens up and people get sick on the ships. That will be a. Major blow

 

Not everybody is part of "a bunch of drunk people doing what they shouldn't" . In fact, in my experience, the minority don"t  even get drunk.

 

Tom

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13 minutes ago, Pierlesscruisers said:

 

the minority don"t  even get drunk.

 

Tom

Therefore, the majority do get drunk?

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It took an hour but there he is. Mr. doom and gloom. 😱

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Here we go again...

 

Whether or not you intend to cruise again or until there is a vaccine is a personal decision. Why does everyone who decides cruising is done or is done for them feel the need to let the world know? If you're onboard with me, I'll happily have a drink with you. If you're not, I wish you well. But all these threads are nothing but doom and gloom, rinse, cycle, repeat.

 

The big question is will this virus go wild once things begin to reopen? If it doesn't, in my humble opinion, cruising will resume within a couple of months. Mexican and Caribbean ports will be among the first to reopen as their economies are heavily reliant on tourist dollars. George Q Public has a short attention span and will book a cruise as soon as a good sale comes his way. We can't keep our lives shut down the year or more until a vaccine comes around, that simply is not reasonable. Herd immunity will be the only way we stop this thing.

If you're immune compromised or have pre-existing conditions that will endanger you, I can certainly see the need to keep up isolation. But the rest of the world has to carry on. And I for one will be on the promenade deck hoisting a drink when it does.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Cruise Raider said:

 

 

Maybe having NCL restructure will not be a complete blow to the US economy but it was forecast that the revenue contributing to the US economy for 2020 was (that was before CoVid) was forecasted to be over $30 Billion (with a B).  You may not be looking at all those that count on the travel and leisure industry for their income (travel agents, hotels, airlines, food services, tours, etc, etc, etc).  

Taking Florida for example according to a study of Florida'a ports in 2016  the cruise industry generates a little over 7 billion in economic impact and pays a total of 213 million in state and local taxes.

 

However the cargo shipping in Florida ports generated 105 billion in economic impact and resulted in a little over 4 billion in state and local taxes.

 

Seems like Florida might do better if cruising went away and it converted those port areas to handle cargo instead.

 

 

Edited by npcl

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Consistent with most people, I am concerned about cruising in the future.   While it does not seem to get as much bad press as the cruiselines, flights in my mind are much worse.   The thought of sitting beside someone on a flight to Europe concerns me more than taking a cruise.  Yes, they can get rid of the middle seat, but you are still in front of and behind someone inches away from you for 8 hours or more.   I have seen videos of how germs spread on an airplane when someone sneezes.   The thing is that people get off an airplane and then days later get sick or give the virus to someone else and it is difficult to track the origin of the virus to the flight.  

 

On a cruiseship, you can get up and walk around.  It is definitely less cramped.  There is more ventilation.  Undoubtedly, the buffets on the cruises will be changed(which is an area of virus transfers).  Another area of crowding is the muster drill, which will be dealt with.  They are already testing drills from your own stateroom.   The theatre is an area where there are crowds.  However, it is for a short period of time(the length of the show) and there may have to be limits in the short term, regarding the number of people who can attend in any one show.  In my opinion, there is a lot more that can be done on a cruiseship to help prevent the spread of the virus, than on a plane.  

 

I understand that flights are a necessity for many people and cruising is a leisure.   However, if we want to control the virus, we need to put a lot of emphasis on controlling the spread of the virus on flights than what I have seen in the news.  There are a lot of very smart people working on this problem and I am sure they are looking at this as well.   Once they are able to control the spread on flights, dealing with it on a cruiseship will be relatively easier.  Luckily, we are making significant inroads in the area of testing.  Hopefully, in the next few months, we will have a test that can be easy to administer that will prevent people from getting on a cruiseship or plane who is infected.   It is clear that it has to be more than a temperature check....

 

As it is today, I would be more concerned on taking a flight to the cruise, than getting on the cruiseship itself.  

 

 

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