Are we seeing the end of cruising?

[Roberto256]

1 hour ago, gmjc2 said:

The most importent point here is that people do not die of Norovirus!!!

CDC says about 900 deaths per year (in USA) from Norovirus.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/norovirus/trends-outbreaks/burden-US.html

 

 

[bstrauss3]

Betting on herd immunity or a vaccine may be forlorn hopes...

 

The SARA-CoV-2 virus has already had one major mutation which made it more contagious and more virulent. It rapidly became the dominant strain in the US. There are some troubling indications that infection with the first strain did not convey immunity to the second (although this is very preliminary information and has not been replicated nor peer reviewed).

 

That is the worst case - a periodic disease (like Influenza), but with 10x the death rate. The US already accepts a yearly death toll from Flu of 25-50 thousand per year. Will we accept 250 - 500 thousand deaths per year due to COVID-19? That might be what it takes to go back to "cruising as usual".

 

[USCcruisecrazy]

2 hours ago, PrincessLuver said:

 

New York asked the Federal Government for assistance and POTUS dispatched the USS Comfort to NYC as a form of help.  The USS Comfort was sent to treate non-COVID-19 hospital cases.  Because NYC hospitals were so overwhelmed with COVID-19 cases they were not dealing with basically non-COVID-19 cases.  Hence the ship was really not helping to begin with in dealing with COVID-19 cases so it was really useless so to speak of for NYC's needs.  

Actually, the USS Comfort was dispatched to be used as a Non-COVID hospital, but the Governor asked it be converted because all non-essential surgeries were being suspended.  Thus the Comfort changed it's configuration to a COVID hospital with 500 beds.  It actually treated 169 patients over the 6 week period.  In addition, they built the Javits Center with 2500 beds and it was barely utilized.  Bottom line was that the anticipated overwhelming of the hospitals never occurred.

[caribill]

3 hours ago, ontheweb said:

Just dealing with point #8. The Governor of NY state begged for a naval hospital ship for NY City as the predictions for the need for hospital beds was so dire. He got it, and a few weeks later it was gone as it was not needed at all, having sat there basically unused. And remember this is in the epicenter for the entire world for the virus at the present time.

 

The need for the ship was to be prepared if the worst predictions of the models came true. Thanks to efforts such as isolation at home and social distancing, the worst did not come true. Thus it was not needed for non-Covid-19 cases nor for Corvid-19 health issues.

 

When the models were adjusted for the isolation and social distancing, the number of predicted cases came down significantly.

 

Remember the main purpose of the home isolation and social distancing was to keep the number of concurrent cases under the capacity to treat them. This is the so called "flattening of the curve." It was not meant to reduce the total number of cases over a period of time, just to stretch the number of cases out so as not to overwhelm the health care system at one time.

 

Sooner or later enough people will have become infected and survived so that herd immunity is achieved.  The only question is how quickly that will happen and if it happens too fast, health care facilities can be overwhelmed.

[Ride-The-Waves]

18 hours ago, CarelessAndConfused said:

 

I care.  If it's $1B or $2B or $6B or $4B.  They are NOT the same.  If people are going to cite facts, they need to cite them correctly or not get defensive if someone else corrects them with the truth.  We NEED more truth in this world.

A CC host once informed that "truth" and "accuracy" are not CC posting criteria.

[USCcruisecrazy]

4 minutes ago, bstrauss3 said:

Betting on herd immunity or a vaccine may be forlorn hopes...

 

The SARA-CoV-2 virus has already had one major mutation which made it more contagious and more virulent. It rapidly became the dominant strain in the US. There are some troubling indications that infection with the first strain did not convey immunity to the second (although this is very preliminary information and has not been replicated nor peer reviewed).

 

That is the worst case - a periodic disease (like Influenza), but with 10x the death rate. The US already accepts a yearly death toll from Flu of 25-50 thousand per year. Will we accept 250 - 500 thousand deaths per year due to COVID-19? That might be what it takes to go back to "cruising as usual".

 

Your worst case is also the most unlikely case.  Many experts agree that the asymptomatic people that have had this disease is likely in the tens of millions already.  It's hard to calculate a mortality rate without a true reflection of the number of folks that caught the disease.  The Flu mortality rate is an estimate, since most people don't go to the doctor with the flu.  They rest in bed for a few days and press on.  So the CDC estimates (based on modeling) the number of people they think had it.  We all know hoe good some of those models are...sort of like the one that said we would have at least 1.2 million deaths in the US by June.  Recent numbers indicate COVID is no greater morbidity, but very focused on the elderly.  Most young people don't show symptoms.  Let's hope that's the case.  That would mean we are much closer to herd immunity than you may think. 

[caribill]

7 minutes ago, USCcruisecrazy said:

Your worst case is also the most unlikely case.  Many experts agree that the asymptomatic people that have had this disease is likely in the tens of millions already.  It's hard to calculate a mortality rate without a true reflection of the number of folks that caught the disease.  The Flu mortality rate is an estimate, since most people don't go to the doctor with the flu.  They rest in bed for a few days and press on.  So the CDC estimates (based on modeling) the number of people they think had it.  We all know hoe good some of those models are...sort of like the one that said we would have at least 1.2 million deaths in the US by June.  Recent numbers indicate COVID is no greater morbidity, but very focused on the elderly.  Most young people don't show symptoms.  Let's hope that's the case.  That would mean we are much closer to herd immunity than you may think. 

 

But now we are learning that children's immune system can overreact and cause serious problems (and death) weeks after the virus itself no longer exists in their bodies.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/73-ny-children-sick-with-rare-covid-related-illness-state-finds-with-one-death/2408285/

[USCcruisecrazy]

9 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

But now we are learning that children's immune system can overreact and cause serious problems (and death) weeks after the virus itself no longer exists in their bodies.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/73-ny-children-sick-with-rare-covid-related-illness-state-finds-with-one-death/2408285/

Let's pray that's not a trend, but just unfortunate that a few children have compromised systems.  Because, on 14 April an article was published from a Doctor in NYC that estimated 80% of all children in NYC had the virus.  The reason children and young adults are not dying in numbers is because the disease tends to exemplify comorbidities in those infected.  Most children do not have any of those comorbidities described, however, some may have undetected issues.  I pray it doesn't get worse for children...that would be a crushing blow.

[DaveSJ711]

53 minutes ago, USCcruisecrazy said:

Actually, the USS Comfort was dispatched to be used as a Non-COVID hospital, but the Governor asked it be converted because all non-essential surgeries were being suspended.  Thus the Comfort changed it's configuration to a COVID hospital with 500 beds.  It actually treated 169 patients over the 6 week period.  In addition, they built the Javits Center with 2500 beds and it was barely utilized.  Bottom line was that the anticipated overwhelming of the hospitals never occurred.

 

The USNS Comfort actually treated 182 patients while in New York City.  The commander of the ship's medical personnel said that the Comfort had 25 patients on ventilators and cases with multiple organ failure.  According to the commander, the ship was the "busiest ICU in the Department of Defense over the last month."  https://taskandpurpose.com/news/usns-comfort-norfolk-coronavirus

 

Regarding COVID's impact on NY hospitals:  Are you saying that these stories are all incorrect?

 

--  https://abc7ny.com/nyc-hospital-queens-coronavirus-news/6070475/

--  https://www.newscientist.com/article/2239247-new-york-citys-coronavirus-outbreak-is-already-overwhelming-hospitals/

--  https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/brooklyn-hospital-coronavirus-patients-deaths/index.html

--  https://www.foxnews.com/health/nyc-hospitals-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-patients-resident-warns

--  https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/04/13/coronavirus-nurse-new-york-overwhelmed-hospitals

 

 

Edited May 9, 2020 by DaveSJ711

[USCcruisecrazy]

6 minutes ago, DaveSJ711 said:

 

The USNS Comfort actually treated 182 patients while in New York City.  The commander of the ship's medical personnel said that the Comfort had 25 patients on ventilators and cases with multiple organ failure.  According to the commander, the ship was the "busiest ICU in the Department of Defense over the last month."  https://taskandpurpose.com/news/usns-comfort-norfolk-coronavirus

 

Regarding COVID's impact on NY hospitals:  Are you saying that these stories are all incorrect?

 

--  https://abc7ny.com/nyc-hospital-queens-coronavirus-news/6070475/

--  https://www.newscientist.com/article/2239247-new-york-citys-coronavirus-outbreak-is-already-overwhelming-hospitals/

--  https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/brooklyn-hospital-coronavirus-patients-deaths/index.html

--  https://www.foxnews.com/health/nyc-hospitals-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-patients-resident-warns

--  https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/04/13/coronavirus-nurse-new-york-overwhelmed-hospitals

 

 

Thanks for the correction on the number of beds used on the Comfort.  I never said the hospitals in NYC weren't heavily used.  In fact I have relatives working in them even today.  I said the Comfort and the Javits were there because they anticipated 30,000 people needing to be ventilated and the numbers were (thankfully) grossly overstated.  The models used were horrible and decisions were based on those faulty models.

[DaveSJ711]

Just now, USCcruisecrazy said:

Thanks for the correction on the number of beds used on the Comfort.  I never said the hospitals in NYC weren't heavily used.  In fact I have relatives working in them even today.  I said the Comfort and the Javits were there because they anticipated 30,000 people needing to be ventilated and the numbers were (thankfully) grossly overstated.  The models used were horrible and decisions were based on those faulty models.

 

You said that the hospitals were never overwhelmed.  I corrected you.

[chipmaster]

5 hours ago, PrincessLuver said:

 

It is estimated that 70% of a population has to be infected to achieve herd immunity.  Since COVID-19 is said to be 10 times more deadly then the seasonal flu the death toll would be staggering for the US to obtain herd immunity without doing anything else.  

 

Vaccines help accelerate herd immunity by basically infecting the population in a safe way.  Some countries that are doing opening of their economies are seeing spikes already in cases again such as South Korea, Hong Kong and Sweden.  Also, already in state like Georgia where the economy is open they have had a 40% increase in COVID-19 cases recently.  Other states are not reporting the full extent of COVID-19 cases and deaths in their state to keep people in the dark.

 

There are still places in the US where people are following their state guidelines and sheltering at home.  Polls show that most Americans support going slow and not everyone is bothered by doing what is asked of them to help the broader community as a whole.

 

The US is not like countries that have had success in successfully surpassing COVID-19.  We have not had a strict shelter in place policy for the whole nation.  We do not have a vast and extensive testing program to know what is really going on.  We do not have a tracking program to identify cases quickly and let other know they have been around someone who was infected.  The way we are acting seems like we are telling people to put on a blind fold and that it is OK to cross the freeway safely now and you will not get hurt and make it to the other side of the road unscathed.

 

We do have a lot of COVID-19 deniers in this country and an incoherent approach to dealing with this virus.  People can hope all they want that COVID-19 is going to go away all by itself but we are probably a long way from returning to normal as our cases continue to rise and death tolls increase daily in the US.  We will see if the 200,000 a day cases and 3,000 deaths a day materialize by June 1 if we continue to do less and less as projected by some.  I for one do not want to play Russian Roulette with my life.

 

I am sure other countries are really going to want tourists from a country that does not seem to take COVID-19 seriously and has not been successful in containing COVID-19.  Cruise on!!

 

 

 

 

We can't change the past but every day is a new day to look back, learn and move forward and do better.

 

1) The inaction and number of cases and deaths in the US is a tragedy beyond words

2) The current state of the economy is a disaster that in another month will be worse

 

So what do we do...

We can look at Taiwan, So. Korea and I would say Sweden as extreme ends and what we just did

 

NYC and Detroit and other places were terrible situations, but the hospitals never ran out of ventilators or beds ( yes some had overflowing emergency rooms ), but nobody that needed help was denied.   yes many chose not to go for other things and possible died or will die because of that.

 

So with no social distance and the great america freedom we can say we didi NOT overwhelm.    We clearly are smarter and hopefully have some infrastructure in place to move resources... what now...

 

We continue to work the vaccines, many in the works but I highly doubt one with high efficacy and minimal side effects will be there in any volume till late next year ( does flu, common cold, HIV etc. have a vaccine? )

 

We know what masks, social distancing etc... is and it does work.

 

So what now....  it is obvious to me.

[LACruiser88]

I wish all the folks that are "never cruising again" would go find another forum to discuss their future vacation plans! 

[npcl]

1 hour ago, USCcruisecrazy said:

Let's pray that's not a trend, but just unfortunate that a few children have compromised systems.  Because, on 14 April an article was published from a Doctor in NYC that estimated 80% of all children in NYC had the virus.  The reason children and young adults are not dying in numbers is because the disease tends to exemplify comorbidities in those infected.  Most children do not have any of those comorbidities described, however, some may have undetected issues.  I pray it doesn't get worse for children...that would be a crushing blow.

The children getting this do not have compromised immune systems, as it is normally defined.  At this point they do not know what is triggering the syndrome in children, just as they have not yet discovered why some 30-50 year old adults, that are otherwise asymptomatic are having strokes.

[npcl]

7 minutes ago, LACruiser88 said:

I wish all the folks that are "never cruising again" would go find another forum to discuss their future vacation plans! 

But then we would lose all of the entertainment value of annoying those that would be willing to jump on the first cruise ship available.

 

Really we have all cruised, we all have skin in the game so to speak.

[BIG TIME CRUISER]

18 minutes ago, LACruiser88 said:

I wish all the folks that are "never cruising again" would go find another forum to discuss their future vacation plans! 

Why?

Many of those people have been cruising for many years now & wish to express their feelings. Myself, I doubt if we'll even be cruising in 2021 unless they find a vaccine or the virus dissipates itself on it's own.

Which I seriously doubt.

Being on a ship wearing a mask & having to distance one's self from everyone doesn't sound like much fun. 

[Diver2014]

23 minutes ago, LACruiser88 said:

I wish all the folks that are "never cruising again" would go find another forum to discuss their future vacation plans! 

Yeah, it would be nice to discuss when we can go cruising again instead of all these people saying a vaccine will have to be found before the cruise industry can restart.  Ain't gonna happen.  There are plenty of folks chomping at the bit to get back on a ship, me included.

[Loreni]

I have many concerns.  One question I have is why is it taking so long to get the crew home.  Some are being held without pay.  I hear their pay is very low to begin with...couldn’t they be given some pay?  I also understand that signing an agreement with the CDC would allow the crew to go home.  I don’t know which cruise lines have signed and which haven’t, but I think Celebrity did.  It seems like the cruise lines are not doing everything in their power to do right by the crew.  Will they do everything in their power to do right by the passengers?  Why are so many Passengers waiting so long for a refund?  Perhaps the executives could defer their pay until refunds are processed.

[weberman]

Bottom line for me, I no longer trust Carnival/Princess. They are still taking deposits for future cruises but not returning monies paid in an any way acceptable manner! So I think they have the money, but just hanging on to it.  Lucky for me I always use AMEX and protested and got my money back in two weeks.

 

Good luck to those of you who are still dealing with getting your money back!

 

I won't be surprised if there is a bankruptcy in the not too distant future!

[By The Bay]

4 hours ago, USCcruisecrazy said:

 Recent numbers indicate COVID is no greater morbidity, but very focused on the elderly. 

"Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care."

Source W.H.O.

[PrincessLuver]

2 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

So with no social distance and the great america freedom we can say we didi NOT overwhelm.    We clearly are smarter and hopefully have some infrastructure in place to move resources... what now...

 

 

Many medical professionals, EMT's, mortuaries, and other essential personnel would probably argue it is overwhelming and that he have not seen the worst yet.  75,000 dead and 25% of the work force is unemployed as of to date and counting.   I would say that is overwhelming for many people and their families.  The immense food  lines just point to how successful the USA has really been!

 

Other countries who did what was advised have not had the deaths we had and most importantly their workers are still working and they are moving back to a less risky way of living because they followed sound medical and scientific advice and national guidelines.

 

We are still not free of COVID-19 as a society no matter how people try and spin it.  For these reasons I think cruise lines returning to any kind of profitability in the near future is a pipe dream.

[ontheweb]

7 hours ago, DaveSJ711 said:

 

You seem to want to minimize the virus's impact on NYC and New York State hospitals.  Why is that?  Gov. Coumo and the medical leadership in NY would certainly disagree with you.

 

No absolutely not. I realize NY City and its suburbs are the epicenter of the disease now. We live less than 100 miles from there and both DW and dread the fact that our area this summer may be inundated with visitors from those areas.

 

The point I kept trying to make was that the need for hospital beds was grossly overestimated.

[DiamondFour]

5 hours ago, BIG TIME CRUISER said:

wearing a mask & having to distance one's self from everyone doesn't sound like much fun

That goes for everywhere in the world. Society cannot and will not continue like this and there is a tipping point for everything. If governments drag this out too long then there will be civil unrest, mass protests and uprisings against the authorities, if governments have a plan and people cooperate then things will return to normal quicker. Governments around the world know this and at some point we will see a return to normal vaccine or no vaccine and this virus will just run its course.

[npcl]

1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

 

No absolutely not. I realize NY City and its suburbs are the epicenter of the disease now. We live less than 100 miles from there and both DW and dread the fact that our area this summer may be inundated with visitors from those areas.

 

The point I kept trying to make was that the need for hospital beds was grossly overestimated.

The stat on actual bed use.  But that stat does not indicate just how stressed the hospitals in NYC got and how close the sytem came to collapsing, even with all of the social distancing restrictions.

 

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-local-correspondents/the-coronavirus-pandemic-peaks-in-new-yorks-hospitals

 

He returned, the night of April 1st, to a hospital transformed. “It looked like a refugee camp in a war zone,” he said. Every patient seemed to have covid-19. Stretchers were lined up along the walls, sometimes two rows deep, with patients who were in dire condition. “I’ve never seen so many patients looking so sick,” he said. Most needed an oxygen tank to breathe. Several were on ventilators. The hospital staff seemed frightened and exhausted, too. “We were intubating people left and right,” he said. A patient was going into cardiac arrest, and hospital staff were administering C.P.R. Taking in the scene, Mathew said, “I was kind of rethinking my career choice.”

[npcl]

15 minutes ago, DiamondFour said:

That goes for everywhere in the world. Society cannot and will not continue like this and there is a tipping point for everything. If governments drag this out too long then there will be civil unrest, mass protests and uprisings against the authorities, if governments have a plan and people cooperate then things will return to normal quicker. Governments around the world know this and at some point we will see a return to normal vaccine or no vaccine and this virus will just run its course.

Our parents were asked to go to war in WWII.

 

Now we cannot  even seem to tolerate being asked to wear masks and keep our distance.