Social Distancing - will ships have to rearrange or even close venues? And who regulates this?

[Hlitner]

5 minutes ago, clo said:

So do you think they could require social distancing and other things like we've been living with for these last couple of months? I'd like to see that happen. Honestly.

Perhaps you would have a suggestion how they could have social distancing on a mass market cruise ship?  Lets see.  Remove half the deck chairs.  Only use half the seats in the theater.  Reduce the maximum in any lounge by 1/2?  Take 1/3 of the tables and chairs out of the LIdo?  And to make all this possible they would have to at least double the price of the cruise!  At that point there would likely be lots of social distancing as the ships would be empty and the lines would all be bankrupt.

 

Hank

[clo]

2 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

I'd like to see that happen. Honestly.

I was being sarcastic. It won't happen. So will the governing body cave? Yeah, probably.

[Hlitner]

8 minutes ago, John Bull said:

 

 

Hi, Hank,

 

That's perhaps a bit over-cooked, even for the land of add-ons. 

Methinks you've been over-indulging in the evil black Irish stuff during your lock-down 

 

I do have some sympathy for the cruise lines (yes, astonishing - JB expressing sympathy for cruise lines ) because they will be amongst the hardest-hit for the reasons in your previous post.

A patron in a bar or restaurant or even a hotel goes down with the virus - were they infected there or elsewhere? Nobody's going to be locked-down in a restaurant or bar (though the idea does have some appeal )

But cruise ships have the disadvantages as in your previous post. I have no wish to be locked-into a ship because another passenger is diagnosed. Or go on a cruise to nowhere because ports have said "we won't allow you to berth here".

And a lot of cruise passengers have to fly -  & flying is one thing JB won't be doing til a vaccine is available.

 

I don't expect there to be any (sea-going) mass-market cruises until the Fall, or next Spring in Europe, and that depends on a vaccine.

Tough times for cruise lines.

 

Stay safe & sane, Hank

(I'm at least staying safe) 

 

JB 

How are you ole friend.  Kathy and I considered flying over to pay you a visit except there are no flights and we hear that your PM will soon require us to spend a fortnight in self-quarantine.   Come to think of it perhaps that is the answer for the cruise lines.  Require all passengers and crew to spend 14 days in isolation, at the port, prior to embarkation.  And then we would need to spend 14 days in isolation (on the ship) between each port and another 14 days in isolation after the cruise.  My goodness.  We would finally get to take a 1 year cruise :).

 

By the way, despite the darn virus we can still get that black liquid gold over here in the colonies :).

 

Hank

P.S,  Sanity is a state of mind.

[lenquixote66]

In my humble opinion it will be impossible to have social distancing on a cruise ship.They May just have to wait till the pandemic ends.

[clo]

1 minute ago, lenquixote66 said:

In my humble opinion it will be impossible to have social distancing on a cruise ship.They May just have to wait till the pandemic ends.

IMneverHO I agree with you.

[navybankerteacher]

21 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

..

 

So, how can ships afford to operate with perhaps half as many passengers. Even doubling the base fare to account for the empty cabins will not enable them to make a profit, with only half as many souls on board to spend, spend, spend. And that's without stating the obvious -- that many who sail on the mass market lines will not (and probably cannot) afford to pay twice as much for their cabin....

 

I just don't see how it can work.

 

I think you have nailed it. 

 

Until there is a vaccine or COVID largely vanishes through mutation or mass immunization by mild exposure, cruising (at least as it used to be done) does not seem possible.  It will be interesting to see how the recently announced, bargain-priced, short itinerary cruises Carnival recently announced for early August work out.  They surely cannot be profitable for the line - but they may be seen as worthwhile public relations expenditures — I have manybbetter things to do with my time to consider them (at any price), but I will be interested to observe that results of that experiment (which, sadly, at this time does not seem to be well thought out).

[clo]

3 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

but they may be seen as worthwhile public relations expenditures

Imagine if someone gets sick.

[navybankerteacher]

I just checked a travel web site (which cannot be named here) - showing that half of the first 18 Carnival Caribbean cruisers scheduled between August 1 and August 15 are already sold out.   It is hard to figure what “sold out” means until it is made clear how many empty cabins are planned to facilitate social distancing - but it interesting to see this indication of desperation to cruise again.   

 

I cannot help thinking that it is irresponsible of Carnival to start marketing their “return to the sea” without demonstrating such essential details. But, then, I have a hard time trying to understand why anyone would want to take a short Caribbean cruise on a Carnival  ship in the best of times  — so I will just stand aside and watch.  

[clo]

8 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

I cannot help thinking that it is irresponsible of Carnival to start marketing their “return to the sea” without demonstrating such essential details.

The industry just seems sleazier and sleazier to me. Just me.

[clo]

15 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

I cannot help thinking that it is irresponsible of Carnival to start marketing their “return to the sea” without demonstrating such essential details. But, then, I have a hard time trying to understand why anyone would want to take a short Caribbean cruise on a Carnival  ship in the best of times  — so I will just stand aside and watch.  

So incredibly well said. And, yes, I wonder if those who do "short Caribbean cruise(s)" really give a doo-doo about public health.

[John Bull]

1 hour ago, clo said:

I've talked to a whole lot of people 'our age' and we are pretty solid that life will never be the same again. And that may be that some things go away...and that could be cruising. And we also won't be flying - maybe a 90 minutes to Seattle with a good mask - without a vaccine. 

 

North America's a big place, Clo 

As is Europe, when borders are open for visitors.

All without need of an airplane or a cruise ship - even across the English Channel from Blighty to mainland Europe.

 

Which reminds me - not saying we Brits used to be arrogant, but even though borders are closed I've not seen newspaper headlines similar to a famous one from 1957 in The Times,  "Fog over the Channel" - Europe cut off" 

 

JB 

 

PS to Hank.

No, sanity isn't a state of mind. It's knowing when you finish a bottle that you've got a few more bottles tucked away 🍷🍷🍷

Edited May 10, 2020 by John Bull

[chengkp75]

8 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

P.S.  Most people conveniently forget that it is the CDC which is also responsible for ensuring periodic sanitary inspections of ships and that all ships within their purview operate following their very stringent guidelines in order to ensure passenger health on every single sailing.

Actually, "ensuring passenger health" is merely a corollary to the USPH/CDC mission, which is to prevent the introduction of infectious disease into the US.  Passenger health while on the ship is merely a "byproduct" of that mission. 

[ontheweb]

10 hours ago, Hlitner said:

Hmmm what an idea.  I can see a "time menu" on each table that sets forth the extra charges for any extra time you spend at your table.  If you don't finish your dinner in 59 minutes you will pay an extra $20 for every 10 minutes?  Of course that menu will be on  paper (that will self destruct after 59 minutes) and next to the menu of all the pricy add-ons such as $25 for a cup of real small batch coffee.  I guess they could also put large pexiglass panels on the tables to separate all the diners.  But of course they would be able to communicate through texting at $5 per minute.

 

Hank

P.S.  During this COVID-19 panic, keeping one's humor (humour for you Brits) is important.  But I do suspect that nobody is laughing at the main offices of cruise lines.

Well I kept my sense of humor and gave you a HA Ha.

[ontheweb]

9 hours ago, clo said:

Imagine if someone gets sick.

I thought the same thing. They are taking an incredible gamble. Another public relations disaster like Princess and HAL had and even those diehards rushing to go back to cruising are going to be lost to them.

 

If they can pull it off is a huge IF.

[evandbob]

I'll guess that cruise lines book sailings that may not depart simply as a way to temporarily boost their cash assets so they may continue to stay in business until this virus pandemic is abated.

 

They can use passenger deposits as "free money" for continuing operational costs while ships remain empty, knowing that these deposits will convert to a FCC, another corporate asset, months down the line.

 

If an Aug.1 cruise gets booked now and gets cancelled, the cruise line has captured the use of that money until a new cruise gets rescheduled, possibly in late 2021.

[Hlitner]

11 hours ago, clo said:

Imagine if someone gets sick.

I do not think "imagine" will have anything to do with it!  There is a reality to viruses and bacteria.  Put a few thousand souls together in relatively tight quarters and the odds strongly favor a few folks getting sick.  And consider COVID-19 testing.  One lady in the White House (an aid to the Vice President) was tested every day and always negative.  That was until a few days ago when she tested positive (and she also has symptoms).  The point is that she was negative day after day until one day when she was positive.  There is no telling how many days she was carrying (and possibly shedding) COVID-19 until she finally tested positive.  And therein lies an age old problem for ships.  You can theoretically test everyone for COVID-19, do temperature checks, etc.  and folks may all be fine.  But among those thousands the odds favor one or more who might have been exposed to that virus while traveling to the cruise port.  They will not test positive, will have no symptoms, and no temperature.  But 2-14 days later that virus will show its ugly side.  This is similar to the Norovirus dilemma where the virus is generally carried aboard by one or more passengers/crew who likely got that bug while in transit to the port city.  

 

So my question is actually simple.  What happens when you are on a future cruise and one or more folks get COVID-19?  Until the cruise lines can develop a favorable outcome under those circumstances a good argument can be made that a cruise ship is among the worst places to be.  But as of today, the entire ship would likely go into isolation in their cabins, ports would refuse to accept the ship, and some kind of quarantine period (likely at least 14 days) would begin.  It will not be a question of "will this happen" but the question is "when will this happen?"   And based on what we saw in Feb and March we can assume, with a very high level of reliability, that it will happen within a few days of the resumption of cruising.

 

Hank

[navybankerteacher]

I wonder if, as a social distancing move, the cruise lines might remove every second sink in the public bathroms (many of them were not that well used anyway).

[clo]

58 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

And based on what we saw in Feb and March we can assume, with a very high level of reliability, that it will happen within a few days of the resumption of cruising.

I think any cruise line or passenger willing to take that risk is................well, at least not thinking clearly. 

[Hlitner]

20 minutes ago, clo said:

I think any cruise line or passenger willing to take that risk is................well, at least not thinking clearly. 

The cruise lines have their PR firms in full rescue mode.  This morning I heard a piece on NBC about CCL claiming that bookings for next year are up nearly 200%.  We do not doubt this but what was not said is that the cruise lines have given out huge amounts of FCCs to folks who had their cruises cancelled.  In most cases these FCCs need to be used within 2 years (sometimes only a year) and most folks have rushed to book cruises using those big FCCs.  The cruise lines have generally increased prices to blunt some of nothing cash flow created by the use of FCCs, but the reality is that the high level of bookings are not going to translate into anything close to normal when it comes to cash.  And the cruise lines all desperately need cash and some revenue.    Of course the question that nobody wants to ask is will the cruise lines avoid more "incidents" in the next year?  One fear with Carnival starting up in August is that a single COVID-19 incident will cause another mass panic among cruise lovers (and the cruise lines).

 

Hank

[navybankerteacher]

44 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

The cruise lines have their PR firms in full rescue mode.  This morning I heard a piece on NBC about CCL claiming that bookings for next year are up nearly 200%.  

...

 

Hank

It’s always fun for a PR guy  to toss statistics out there to see if they stick. But they can only have meaning with some understanding of the terms.   “...bookings for next year are up nearly 200%”   is certainly credible if what is being compared are numbers of bookings for 2021 made this past week with numbers of booking for 2021 made during the first week of April.    But if what is being compared is number of bookings for 2021 with the number of bookings  for 2020 (meaning made in 2019 when 2020 was the “next year”) - it is very different.  

[clo]

Check your email as you likely have one from CC featuring FDR. Giving some nuts and bolts kinda info that I've been looking for: social distancing, masks, etc. I'd share it but it just annoys people. Read at your pleasure 🙂

[chipmaster]

On 5/9/2020 at 5:17 PM, clo said:

Nevada is starting to reopen certain industries like restaurants, hair salons, etc. Restaurants will have to remove half their seating, servers must wear masks. Reservations are recommended, probably to help with distancing at the entrance. Space in hair salons is going to have to be a lot greater, again masks must be worn.  Are these things going to be implemented before ships can sail? And who makes that call? CDC?  I can't believe that it will be business as usual. Has anyone read anything in this regard? TIA.

 

Remember who makes the call in the US, but cruise ships sail to a lot of places and they will need to abide by the strictest.

 

I wonder would any European country allow Americans in with our continued increasing infection rate as we open up the economy.    There is rampant prejudice either by ignorance or defaulting to old bias, but look which countries are actually doing the best, are other countries considering letting those citizens and tourist to visit their country with their tourist dollars.

 

 It's a free for all in the US where somehow "freedom"  is viewed as the "right from .... "   versus the " right to ... "

 

The freedom from control, regulation, submission, etc. etc. is argued from and thus open the casinos, the hair salons.

 

For cruises if they do social distancing and require all passengers be tested and validated healthy and COVID free ( not the antibodies ) as even if you have immunity you can give it to others then force all mitigation the cruises will go broke or need to triple prices IMHO... interesting times indeed

[clo]

4 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 It's a free for all in the US where somehow "freedom"  is viewed as the "right from .... "   versus the " right to ... "

 

Profound statement. I think a whole lot of 'Americans' are more than a little bratty. I just saw that there were protests in Vegas and other NV cities cause the governor didn't do enough. And I'm concerned about the safety getting my months overdue haircut for goodness sake.

[lenquixote66]

7 minutes ago, clo said:

Profound statement. I think a whole lot of 'Americans' are more than a little bratty. I just saw that there were protests in Vegas and other NV cities cause the governor didn't do enough. And I'm concerned about the safety getting my months overdue haircut for goodness sake.

My beard and hair are both a lot shorter than 50 years ago when I both went as far as my lower back and waist respectively.

[ldubs]

13 hours ago, Hlitner said:

The cruise lines have their PR firms in full rescue mode.  This morning I heard a piece on NBC about CCL claiming that bookings for next year are up nearly 200%.  We do not doubt this but what was not said is that the cruise lines have given out huge amounts of FCCs to folks who had their cruises cancelled.  In most cases these FCCs need to be used within 2 years (sometimes only a year) and most folks have rushed to book cruises using those big FCCs. 

 

Hank

 

Interesting.  I also would not doubt that kind of booking activity for next year.  Besides the excellent points you make about using FCCs, in general cruise customers are more affluent and continue to be in a position to spend on luxuries.   Additionally, I suspect demand would be higher just simply because of the current shut down.  People are anxious to get back to what they enjoy.  

 

BTW, we recently received a message regarding our upcoming cruise that if we eopted for a future credit, they would guarantee the credit would cover the same cruise next year.   In other words, we would not lose out due to a price increase.