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Malcolm142

Will Arcadia do world cruise Jan 2021?

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Do you think Arcadia will be able to complete her world cruise next year.

In light of CV epidemic and ports seeming to have a position of not wanting cruise ships in their waters will

P&O have got clearance from all 38 ports on the schedule by the end of this year.

I have a vested interest in that we are booked on first leg to San Fran. Balance is payable 18th Sept

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10 minutes ago, Malcolm142 said:

Do you think Arcadia will be able to complete her world cruise next year.

In light of CV epidemic and ports seeming to have a position of not wanting cruise ships in their waters will

P&O have got clearance from all 38 ports on the schedule by the end of this year.

I have a vested interest in that we are booked on first leg to San Fran. Balance is payable 18th Sept

Hopefully by Mid Sept you might have a clearer idea of whether this cruise is possible, but nothing is certain until cruising does restart.

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Being generally a glass half full sort of person, I'd like to think that it will go ahead.  We also have a vested interest as we are also on board, all the way as they say.  From a realistic perspective...who knows.

 

I don't expect PandO to announce any amendments before balances are due, even if they expect to make major amendments.  Which is both naughty and not nice. However,  we currently plan to pay our balance.  In the event of PandO cancelling we would probably look to rebook for 2023, ideally (for us) Arcadia again.  

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Off course, using the balance towards a new booking would be dependant on T & Cs at the time.  Which we have all seen to be somewhat dynamic.

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I am booked for the middle sector, so my balance is due end of October. As a solo traveller, it is a not inconsiderable sum and I am in a bit of a quandary about it. I'm not sure I want to commit that amount of money, only to find out it is altered beyond recognition  or cancelled - especially if refunds are still taking an age to deliver...

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If you were in charge of P&O logistics, would you send a ship around the world, when a sudden spike in CV19 cases could lead to various countries not allowing Arcadia to dock?.Obviously, with some time to go before a decision is made, anything is possible, but I think P&O might err on the side of caution. Pull the world cruise, and substitute a series of 14 day European cruises which will logistically be far easier to handle if the pandemic returns, compared to Arcadia being stuck in somewhere like LA or Sydney.

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14 minutes ago, wowzz said:

If you were in charge of P&O logistics, would you send a ship around the world, when a sudden spike in CV19 cases could lead to various countries not allowing Arcadia to dock?.Obviously, with some time to go before a decision is made, anything is possible, but I think P&O might err on the side of caution. Pull the world cruise, and substitute a series of 14 day European cruises which will logistically be far easier to handle if the pandemic returns, compared to Arcadia being stuck in somewhere like LA or Sydney.

If PandO's finance dept and the current refund debacle are anything to go by, I wouldn't be surprised if their logistics dept are gearing up for the next moon landing! 

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Posted (edited)

If there is a WC in 2023 - when would details be released? Or rather when would it normally be released? 

 

I wonder if world cruises might well be put on hold for a few years - I hope not as we are planning on one in the next few years, but logistically it probably still causes a bad taste in the mouths of senior mgt of all cruise lines who run a world cruise. 

 

Once we are vaccinated/antibodied I can see it being fine, but not sure before then certainly as the different countries of the world are all experiencing the same but with differing timespans. 

 

I hope all those who are booked get what they want, but as with everything, I think we have to roll with the punches. 

Edited by ToxM

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55 minutes ago, wowzz said:

If you were in charge of P&O logistics, would you send a ship around the world, when a sudden spike in CV19 cases could lead to various countries not allowing Arcadia to dock?.Obviously, with some time to go before a decision is made, anything is possible, but I think P&O might err on the side of caution. Pull the world cruise, and substitute a series of 14 day European cruises which will logistically be far easier to handle if the pandemic returns, compared to Arcadia being stuck in somewhere like LA or Sydney.

I must admit that scenario has been in my head for some time and adds to my quandary. Sadly, I am suspicious enough to be concerned that they might have no intention of operating the world cruise but still take our final balances as though it were...

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25 minutes ago, Britboys said:

I must admit that scenario has been in my head for some time and adds to my quandary. Sadly, I am suspicious enough to be concerned that they might have no intention of operating the world cruise but still take our final balances as though it were...

 

That is a major concern for me and then having to take the difficult decision whether we cancel on 18th Sept.

There has been so much conflicting policy changes from P&O that I am not sure where we stand with our deposit amount of about £300. If we cancel will it be moved to a FCC or do we lose it?

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6 hours ago, Malcolm142 said:

Do you think Arcadia will be able to complete her world cruise next year.

In light of CV epidemic and ports seeming to have a position of not wanting cruise ships in their waters will

P&O have got clearance from all 38 ports on the schedule by the end of this year.

I have a vested interest in that we are booked on first leg to San Fran. Balance is payable 18th Sept

It's anybody's guess whether the cruise will be able to go ahead. But if it does, I'd be surprised if P&O didn't have to tweak the itinerary a bit.

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I would think it may go, but may have to miss a few ports along the way. Not sure I would want to be on a ship for that long if it had Covid on board.

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I can't see the worldie happening in January.

 

Having read a lot of the requirements that the CDC demand following the current no sail order regarding crew health checks, health reporting procedures, quarantining etc it would mean large scale continuous testing of all passengers for coronavirus.

 

That would entail proper on board lab facilities, very large quantities of PPE, and enhanced medical facilities to deal with that testing.

 

Every respiratory malady like a common cold would have to be tested.

 

P&O state they comply with CDC and WHO requirements so I think it's too soon for such a long voyage, particularly as the UK scientists have expressed concern about the winter flu season re Covid 19.

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3 hours ago, wowzz said:

If you were in charge of P&O logistics, would you send a ship around the world, when a sudden spike in CV19 cases could lead to various countries not allowing Arcadia to dock?.Obviously, with some time to go before a decision is made, anything is possible, but I think P&O might err on the side of caution. Pull the world cruise, and substitute a series of 14 day European cruises which will logistically be far easier to handle if the pandemic returns, compared to Arcadia being stuck in somewhere like LA or Sydney.

I agree. Trying to send a ship around the world would leave too many hostages to fortune in current or forseeable circumstances. Povided that berths are available a series of no fly cruises out of Southampton would seem a safer bet.

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2 hours ago, Malcolm142 said:

 

That is a major concern for me and then having to take the difficult decision whether we cancel on 18th Sept.

There has been so much conflicting policy changes from P&O that I am not sure where we stand with our deposit amount of about £300. If we cancel will it be moved to a FCC or do we lose it?

If the passenger cancels, you are bound by the usual terms and conditions, with the financial penalties set out in those. At present P&O are allowing people to transfer deposits to any other cruise currently on sale without charge and you can also transfer more than once.

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6 hours ago, jh1809 said:

It's anybody's guess whether the cruise will be able to go ahead. But if it does, I'd be surprised if P&O didn't have to tweak the itinerary a bit.

 

6 hours ago, bee-ess said:

I would think it may go, but may have to miss a few ports along the way. Not sure I would want to be on a ship for that long if it had Covid on board.

The thing is, that on a world cruise, your options are severely limited. You just can't turn up at a port and load up supplies for 3000 pax and crew.  You just can't tweak the itinerary - P&O send containers of supplies out to ports months in advance for resupply.

I would have thought that the "go/no go" decision must be pretty imminent.  The sooner P&O cancel, the more chance they have of selling replacement cruises at decent prices. Look how cheap they had to sell Oceana cruises when the Gulf cruises were pulled at late notice.

Trying to sail a 2021 world cruise in the current environment is a pure vanity project, with a high possible financial downside.

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The thing is, that on a world cruise, your options are severely limited. You just can't turn up at a port and load up supplies for 3000 pax and crew.  You just can't tweak the itinerary - P&O send containers of supplies out to ports months in advance for resupply.
I would have thought that the "go/no go" decision must be pretty imminent.  The sooner P&O cancel, the more chance they have of selling replacement cruises at decent prices. Look how cheap they had to sell Oceana cruises when the Gulf cruises were pulled at late notice.
Trying to sail a 2021 world cruise in the current environment is a pure vanity project, with a high possible financial downside.


But also a very very big financial outlay to refund/fcc all those passengers... I wonder if that will factor into their decision on when to cancel - if thats what they are planning to do.

It’s pretty obvious that they are at the moment happy to take the bookings for cruises that may well not happen and the payments as it all shores up the coffers - and 125% fcc is still a booking - cheaper in the long run to lose 25% than 100% of a fare.

Would they even be able to fill anything they put as a replacement/will any ports even be open.

It’s a very complicated game of Tetris for cruise companies, and a very tense game of chicken for passengers.

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4 minutes ago, ToxM said:

 


But also a very very big financial outlay to refund/fcc all those passengers... I wonder if that will factor into their decision on when to cancel - if thats what they are planning to do.

It’s pretty obvious that they are at the moment happy to take the bookings for cruises that may well not happen and the payments as it all shores up the coffers - and 125% fcc is still a booking - cheaper in the long run to lose 25% than 100% of a fare.

Would they even be able to fill anything they put as a replacement/will any ports even be open.

It’s a very complicated game of Tetris for cruise companies, and a very tense game of chicken for passengers.

 

I agree, it's not easy. But, 30% of revenue comes from on board spends. Much better to keep the ship shuttling  backwards and forwards to the Canaries rather than have it stuck in Sydney (or whatever) and have to compensate all the pax, and attempt to get the ship home. And the 14 day cruisers will probably spend more on board than the worldies ( generalisation I know). 

Whilst keeping Arcadia in Europe in Q1 2021 may be financially less profitable than sending her on a world  cruise, it will be a much safer option. As Clint would say "Do you feel lucky ".

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It really is a waiting game.

 

If the Oxford vaccine which is being tested is successful then most of the country will have received it by January.

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43 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

It really is a waiting game.

 

If the Oxford vaccine which is being tested is successful then most of the country will have received it by January.


I think I heard that, if all goes well, they would be able to produce 30m vaccines which would cover less than half the UK population. If that’s the case, I guess it makes sense to prioritise the oldest 30m, but that still leaves a lot of people at risk. And, of course, most of the crew are unlikely to have been vaccinated, as only a very small proportion are UK nationals. 

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2 hours ago, Selbourne said:


I think I heard that, if all goes well, they would be able to produce 30m vaccines which would cover less than half the UK population. If that’s the case, I guess it makes sense to prioritise the oldest 30m, but that still leaves a lot of people at risk. And, of course, most of the crew are unlikely to have been vaccinated, as only a very small proportion are UK nationals. 

Selbourne, once a proven vaccine is available I would imagine that the Worldwide hospitality sector will be one of the biggest, and most profitable, customers for whichever drug company is first in the queue.

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4 hours ago, Selbourne said:


I think I heard that, if all goes well, they would be able to produce 30m vaccines which would cover less than half the UK population. If that’s the case, I guess it makes sense to prioritise the oldest 30m, but that still leaves a lot of people at risk. And, of course, most of the crew are unlikely to have been vaccinated, as only a very small proportion are UK nationals. 

I suspect that should a vaccine become available priority will be give to those at the greatest risk of serious illness, as is the practice regarding the flu vaccine. The priority will be to protect the NHS from a serious hit should infections increase again by vaccinating those most likely to be hospitalised. That includes the over 65s, who form a large proportion of cruise passengers.

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59 minutes ago, Denarius said:

I suspect that should a vaccine become available priority will be give to those at the greatest risk of serious illness, as is the practice regarding the flu vaccine. The priority will be to protect the NHS from a serious hit should infections increase again by vaccinating those most likely to be hospitalised. That includes the over 65s, who form a large proportion of cruise passengers.

Actually I would think priority will be given to NHS staff, care workers etc, with OAPs coming lower down the list.

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I'm on the first half of this, Southampton to Sydney with a friend. We are planning to pay, take the FCC and transfer the booking to 2022 or 2023.

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On 5/21/2020 at 6:59 AM, Selbourne said:


I think I heard that, if all goes well, they would be able to produce 30m vaccines which would cover less than half the UK population. If that’s the case, I guess it makes sense to prioritise the oldest 30m, but that still leaves a lot of people at risk. And, of course, most of the crew are unlikely to have been vaccinated, as only a very small proportion are UK nationals. 

30m doses by end of September so another 30m by January should be possible. Additionally, its likely that whoever creates a successful vaccine will license it to drug manufacturers around the world.

 

Naturally, cruise companies will be able to buy privately if they wish. The big game changer is if this 20 minute detection test works. This could allow pre-boarding and post-excursion testing.

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