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Bigger, Newer Ships, In New Home Ports

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There are 3 quotes that stood out to me in today's call from RCI leadership....    

 

1)

"We don't expect that... someday somebody blows a horn, and all the ships start operating right away. We think that it will be a gradual start, a little bit like society is opening up gradually."

 

2)

"So we would imagine that we would start with fewer ships, and more likely to be more drive markets in the beginning, and then it would then evolve and grow from there."

 

3)

"But certainly the newer ships have more public space per passenger. And would be heavily in consideration for the return to service, as well as other ships that we've modernized and having more venues on to."

 

So...

It's not like August 1, or September 1, All ships are going to sail as scheduled.  Nope.

 

Sure, we might be sailing again in September, or October but it's only going to be a couple ships and it's probably not going to be where they're currently scheduled to sail.

 

Newer and Bigger ships are most cost effective and allow easiest social distancing....

 

and RCI believes travelers will people will still avoid being in an enclosed space like an airplane.... but may be willing to cruise... so lets make the ships easier to drive to. 

 

If all this holds true....

 

I think we're going to see the Oasis, Quantum class ships  and the recently amped ships (Indy, Navigator,Mariner) deployed around the country, rather than concentrated in South Florida.

 

Divide them up first between...

NY/NJ, Orlando, South Florida, Texas, Seattle... 

 

Then places like Baltimore, Norfolk, Boston, Charleston, New Orleans. 

 

The fleet may get entirely reassigned for a bit... which will play havoc for those cruises we have booked this winter.

 

Again all guesses, but that's what my brain came up with when I read these quotes....   What about you?

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So what’s the source.

 I t does make sense,the older ships have older technology and they have jammed more cabins in.

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45 minutes ago, RCCL Fan said:

 

There are 3 quotes that stood out to me in today's call from RCI leadership....    

 

1)

"We don't expect that... someday somebody blows a horn, and all the ships start operating right away. We think that it will be a gradual start, a little bit like society is opening up gradually."

 

2)

"So we would imagine that we would start with fewer ships, and more likely to be more drive markets in the beginning, and then it would then evolve and grow from there."

 

3)

"But certainly the newer ships have more public space per passenger. And would be heavily in consideration for the return to service, as well as other ships that we've modernized and having more venues on to."

 

So...

It's not like August 1, or September 1, All ships are going to sail as scheduled.  Nope.

 

Sure, we might be sailing again in September, or October but it's only going to be a couple ships and it's probably not going 

 

Divide them up first between...

NY/NJ, Orlando, South Florida, Texas, Seattle... 

 

 

 

 

I dont see Seattle being among first. 

 

I've been told Galveston is one of most profitable markets but the port wouldnt handle a large ship likely. In fact I dont think allure will come, after rcl delayed the new port a year in Galveston 

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I've read Galveston can handle a larger ship but the concerns are people handling and traffic outside.

Three rumours in last couple of days have Anthem coming there. We'll see 🙂

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As for Charleston being a port of call, first the port dredging will take years to complete, and second the locals don't like be over run by tourist, and this is from a former  resident. 

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They were also talking about maybe China first and then Europe and then US...

 

steamboats

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3 minutes ago, steamboats said:

They were also talking about maybe China first and then Europe and then US...

 

steamboats

Take a look at the current prices of cruises in Asia for July and August.  They expected to be sailing to Japan during the Olympics,but the prices are outrageous.  $1,600 per person for an inside cabin on a 4 day cruise?

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1) Agreed. Start-up will be small and gradual. Carnival announced 8 ships (out of 26) from 3 ports to start with, be it Aug 1st or Sept 1st  or later. NCL said it may take up to 6 months to ramp up it's fleet once it's start sailing.  I can see both applying to Royal, meaning cancelled cruises will continue into Feb/March 2021, maybe even longer if Royal retires a few of the older ships.

 

2) Makes sense to start with the drive-up markets.  Air travel may be a hassle and drive-up markets means there are more people  that can go on a cruise spur of the moment without the expense of air fare, overnight hotels, shuttles, etc.  Florida (Miami and Port Canaveral) and Galveston are natural choices.

 

3) The bigger, newer ships have a breakeven point at 30% capacity vs 50% for the older, smaller ships. So if ships are to sail at only 50% capacity, it only makes sense to sail the big girls.  With so many ships sitting on the sidelines initially, I'm sure there will be some ship shuffling going on.  For example, in Galveston, replace the Vision with an Voyager or Freedom class ship, assuming Liberty is staying there for the time being. But that could be one way to boost # of people when sailing at 50%.  Although that could be a logistics nightmare, reassigning cabins not to mention pricing. People paid for a Vision and get an AMP'd  Voyage or similar.

 

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1 hour ago, mugtech said:

Take a look at the current prices of cruises in Asia for July and August.  They expected to be sailing to Japan during the Olympics,but the prices are outrageous.  $1,600 per person for an inside cabin on a 4 day cruise?

 

We´re talking about China, not Japan... and when you look closely on the new cancellation announcement you will see, that China cruises are cancelled til the end of June while the rest of the world is cancelled til the end of July ;-)!

 

As for Japan... no Olympics this year and the online offers are still the pre Covid-19 ones...

 

steamboats

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RCCL Fan,  Your  "guesses"  seem very practical and likely scenarios.  We were looking forward to having the Allure coming to Texas.  Disappointed  in the delay of the terminal for the Allure in Galveston, but totally understandable.  

 

Agree on Aug 1 or Sept 1 all ships will not be sailing and could see the reassignment of ships.  It will definitely be interesting to see what transpires to see what ports open first and which ships are deployed to which ports.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, RCCL Fan said:

 

There are 3 quotes that stood out to me in today's call from RCI leadership....    

 

1)

"We don't expect that... someday somebody blows a horn, and all the ships start operating right away. We think that it will be a gradual start, a little bit like society is opening up gradually."

 

2)

"So we would imagine that we would start with fewer ships, and more likely to be more drive markets in the beginning, and then it would then evolve and grow from there."

 

3)

"But certainly the newer ships have more public space per passenger. And would be heavily in consideration for the return to service, as well as other ships that we've modernized and having more venues on to."

 

So...

It's not like August 1, or September 1, All ships are going to sail as scheduled.  Nope.

 

Sure, we might be sailing again in September, or October but it's only going to be a couple ships and it's probably not going to be where they're currently scheduled to sail.

 

Newer and Bigger ships are most cost effective and allow easiest social distancing....

 

and RCI believes travelers will people will still avoid being in an enclosed space like an airplane.... but may be willing to cruise... so lets make the ships easier to drive to. 

 

If all this holds true....

 

I think we're going to see the Oasis, Quantum class ships  and the recently amped ships (Indy, Navigator,Mariner) deployed around the country, rather than concentrated in South Florida.

 

Divide them up first between...

NY/NJ, Orlando, South Florida, Texas, Seattle... 

 

Then places like Baltimore, Norfolk, Boston, Charleston, New Orleans. 

 

The fleet may get entirely reassigned for a bit... which will play havoc for those cruises we have booked this winter.

 

Again all guesses, but that's what my brain came up with when I read these quotes....   What about you?

 

I'll just pick at a couple of guesses.

 

Seattle?  No.  Not as big of a drive-to crowd as you seem to think.  Canada doesn't want the ships, and they have to go to Canada to be in compliance with the PVSA.

 

Baltimore?  Can't handle anything larger than a Radiance class ship.  But yes, a HUGE drive-to population.

 

Charleston.  No.  Just no.  Not going to happen.  Plus, most people who would consider driving to Charleston *could* drive to either Florida or New Jersey.

 

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Merion_Mom said:

 

I'll just pick at a couple of guesses.

 

Seattle?  No.  Not as big of a drive-to crowd as you seem to think.  Canada doesn't want the ships, and they have to go to Canada to be in compliance with the PVSA.

 

Baltimore?  Can't handle anything larger than a Radiance class ship.  But yes, a HUGE drive-to population.

 

Charleston.  No.  Just no.  Not going to happen.  Plus, most people who would consider driving to Charleston *could* drive to either Florida or New Jersey.

 

 

 

 

Agree. Also others suggesting of shuffling ships, not going happen. Could you imagine change Class, then every Cabin and Booking have be changed. Canceling sailings or Ships in short or Long Term, yes. 

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I agree about Seattle and especially Charleston, where the locals are against any cruise ship being home ported there. They give Carnival a hard time, and they've been there for years.

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46 minutes ago, steamboats said:

 

We´re talking about China, not Japan... 

All 25 itineraries in July and August are round trip from China to Japan.

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3 hours ago, RCCL Fan said:

Divide them up first between...

NY/NJ, Orlando, South Florida, Texas, Seattle... 

 

 

I highly doubt NY/NJ would be among the first departure cities, especially in the months of August or September.

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What about cruises which theoretically can sail in August or september , but are currently maybe 70% booked or more - will they try to reduce the number of passengers by offering incentives to change sailing? There must be some sailings which will encounter that scenario.

And I wonder what their initial capacity limit will be set at - 50% , 60% , higher?

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Posted (edited)

I read between the lines here that not all

ships are coming back. Majesty and Empress are pretty obvious (barring an indication that Cuba travel is going to restart after January 2021).  Vision class was already on the way out. 
 

Hopefully Radiance class will be spared. 😬

Edited by danv3

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As others have said, it all depends on how willing the states and local governments sre to cruise ships, and which ports are willing to take cruise ships.

 

 

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Don't forget Asia and Europe; if the situation allows we might see Quantum and or Symphony to begin operating again as of late summer / autumn.

 

For Europe, my bet is to have Allure operate it's original itinarary as of August out of Barcelona and if even going to happen I have a feeling Anthem will be depoloyed out of Civitavechia taking over the Explorer itinararies also as of August which would result in no cruies out of Southampton this year. More than this if at all will likely not be possible out of Europe this year.

 

In the US we might see for the begining only the Oasis Class to operate (1-2) and in addition maybe Mariner and or Navigator for the short cruises. Cruises on smaller ships such as out of Tampa or Baltimore will maybe be cancelled completely for the 2020/2021 season. Even what I mentioned here seems a bit much for the offering maybe. Also, what will happen if a 2nd wave will come of which the likelyhood is quite realisitc. For logistic reasons the less ships you have in operation the less complex it will be to shut down operations again.

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3 hours ago, mugtech said:

All 25 itineraries in July and August are round trip from China to Japan.

It is interesting that the Chinese version of the RCI site doesn't show any July sailings. The cost on those seem much lower than you saw.

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I think that people forget that the bigger ships are bigger because they hold more people.  Simply having a bigger ship move somewhere doesn't really solve the issue of social distancing.  In fact, if you take the information from Royal's website and run it through Excel, you'll see that all but two ships in the entire fleet have between 23 and 27 gross tons per person onboard (including crew).  While you might expect the Oasis class to have all sorts of room, they are actually right in the middle at 25-26.

 

image.thumb.png.2801dc845f18af2dab2a99c37765e405.png

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2 minutes ago, firefox247 said:

you'll see that all but two ships in the entire fleet have between 23 and 27 gross tons per person onboard (including crew)

Using the full capacity measure might not be so useful in the start up phase where both crew and passenger numbers will be severely limited.

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4 hours ago, mugtech said:

All 25 itineraries in July and August are round trip from China to Japan.

 

Focus market for those cruise are Chinese people not Europeans or Americans...

 

steamboats

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37 minutes ago, firefox247 said:

you'll see that all but two ships in the entire fleet have between 23 and 27 gross tons per person onboard (including crew). 

Don’t forget that the GT is only a measure of interior volume.  Oasis class ships also have a lot more outdoor space compared to other ships that isn’t included in that.

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1 hour ago, LXA350 said:

Cruises on smaller ships such as out of Tampa or Baltimore will maybe be cancelled completely for the 2020/2021 season.

 

I don't see Baltimore happening this year. I lift and shifted my Sep 26 2020 to Sep 18 2021 where there is slight hope it might sail.

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