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More Cancellations Imminent?


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11 minutes ago, bee-ess said:

But surely there are rules to follow - we are told we can only meet 1 member of our family at a time, but I guess like Cummings the rules don't apply to them.

No comment. I have moved on.

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6 hours ago, davecttr said:

Another way of looking at it is if you sneeze viral particles on a crowded beach in a breeze the breeze will spread the particles cloud over more people than if there was no breeze. There are two ways of surviving this disease. first be young, the younger the better, or don't catch it in the first place. One contagious person can infect dozens

I do believe that scientists have said that the virus dissipates much faster in windy weather and is much less of a risk. More of a risk when the air is still. 

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1 hour ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

I do believe that scientists have said that the virus dissipates much faster in windy weather and is much less of a risk. More of a risk when the air is still. 

Correct - the viral load is less. Which is why crowded beaches are really not a risk. 

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From the BBC News Website, just now

 

 

 

Tour operator Tui has extended the suspension of holidays for UK customers until at least the end of June due to ongoing travel restrictions amid the pandemic. 

The firm has also cancelled its Marella Cruises sailings up to 30 July.

The UK's biggest tour operator had previously cancelled all trips up to 11 June.

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Eddie99 said:

From the BBC News Website, just now

 

 

 

Tour operator Tui has extended the suspension of holidays for UK customers until at least the end of June due to ongoing travel restrictions amid the pandemic. 

The firm has also cancelled its Marella Cruises sailings up to 30 July.

The UK's biggest tour operator had previously cancelled all trips up to 11 June.

 

 

Notably, TUI / Marella Cruises are now reporting refund turnaround times significantly quicker than is the case than with P&O for cancellations.

 

This is interesting, as it was assumed that lines such as Marella would be worst in class when it came to refunds and initially this was backed up.

 

However, it now appears that the mantle is passing over to Cruise and Maritime / MSC with P&O slipping as well.

 

It may be the case that the late scheduling of the current cancellations have allowed Marella to achieve a more even flow in requests, even as there new restart time is the same as P&O.

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1 minute ago, molecrochip said:

I think that the summer season for Oceana is likely to already be over. Can't see P&O running the cruises for less than 2 months. Additionally, the fly cruise season is more complex than restarting from Southampton.

I tend to agree, it’s unclear when Spain and a Italy will open their ports to cruise ships, so all Med cruises this summer are likely to be non starters.

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I expects that Carnival as a business have been waiting for Canada, Norway and our Chancellor to make their announcements before they make an further announcements. Now that has happened, one expects announcements may be more forthcoming. That said, I suspect a strong desire not to make the refund situation worse before it improves.

 

There was a fake social media account set up earlier which posted news of cancellations through 30 September. This wasn't an official announcement.

 

Additionally, I know of at least one travel agent who is not selling cruises where the full balance would be payable immediately (so thats August & September cruises, bearing in mind you pay agents 4 months ahead of departure). As I understand it, this is not based on any early warning of an announcement but their own management's concern for taking customer money and it not being paid to P&O for four weeks. There is a grey area as to what FCC is then due. P&O won't offer enhanced FCC unless they have received funds. Customer has met their obligations, agent is required to pay at 3 months out so hasn't done anything wrong.

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4 hours ago, Snow Hill said:

Looks like Greece and Cyprus are off limits to Brits this summer due to our poor record re Covid19. So that will affect Oceana’s med cruises this summer should they restart.

 

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/greece-ban-brits-reopens-tourists-18331661

Reviewed again on 1 July. The Greek health minister has said we're likely to be included in the next batch of countries, subject to our infection rate continuing to fall. 

Edited by cruisenewbie1976
typo
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1 minute ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

Reviewed again on 1 July. The Greek health minister has said we're likely to be included in the next batch of countries, subject to our infection rate continuing to fall. 

With infection rate at 8000 a day according to ONS study it will need to fall a heck of a lot to allow the Greeks to permit Brits to go there. As yet no word from them on accepting cruise ships. 
 

There was expectation from him in No 10  that the alert level would drop to 3 by end of this week, that’s not the case as it remains at 4. The view from some Sage members is that lockdown has been lifted too early. Whether the Greek & Cypriot Governments lift their ban at end of June remains to be seen. 

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5 minutes ago, Snow Hill said:

The view from some Sage members is that lockdown has been lifted too early. 

I read that too this evening. Our cases are still rising daily. Only 11 today. That's a good day for us.

Avril 

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39 minutes ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

Reviewed again on 1 July. The Greek health minister has said we're likely to be included in the next batch of countries, subject to our infection rate continuing to fall. 

Sorry missed this, where did you find this reported please!

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34 minutes ago, Snow Hill said:

With infection rate at 8000 a day according to ONS study it will need to fall a heck of a lot to allow the Greeks to permit Brits to go there. As yet no word from them on accepting cruise ships. 
 

There was expectation from him in No 10  that the alert level would drop to 3 by end of this week, that’s not the case as it remains at 4. The view from some Sage members is that lockdown has been lifted too early. Whether the Greek & Cypriot Governments lift their ban at end of June remains to be seen. 

Was it 'some' or 'a'?

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4 minutes ago, mercury7289 said:

Sorry missed this, where did you find this reported please!

He was on a news report a few days ago (either BBC or Sky) saying that we were unlikely to make the list of countries allowed in straight away, which I'm guessing they've now confirmed. He then said that they'd review again etc etc. 

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46 minutes ago, Snow Hill said:

With infection rate at 8000 a day according to ONS study it will need to fall a heck of a lot to allow the Greeks to permit Brits to go there. As yet no word from them on accepting cruise ships. 
 

There was expectation from him in No 10  that the alert level would drop to 3 by end of this week, that’s not the case as it remains at 4. The view from some Sage members is that lockdown has been lifted too early. Whether the Greek & Cypriot Governments lift their ban at end of June remains to be seen. 

Why has everyone suddenly switched to the ONS estimated figures? Is it because it makes a better story? If you're looking at other countries they're letting in, you've got to compare our current tested positive figures to theirs. Every country will have a proportion of people who have covid but don't get tested, and therefore they're never reported. You can't suddenly start saying we've got 8000 per day but Spain, Italy, Germany etc only have a few hundred. 

Edited by cruisenewbie1976
typo
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10 minutes ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

Why has everyone suddenly switched to the ONS estimated figures? Is it because it makes a better story? If you're looking at other countries they're letting in, you've got to compare our current tested positive figures to theirs. Every country will have a proportion of people who have covid but don't get tested, and therefore they're never reported. You can't suddenly start saying we've got 8000 per day but Spain, Italy, Germany etc only have a few hundred. 

 

Very true. You have to compare like with like.

Perhaps those of you that knock the government or their advisors would like to furnish us with statistics of what other countries are reporting compared to the UK. Just like a P&O refund I am expecting a long wait.

 

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7 minutes ago, jeanlyon said:

We actually only had 2000+ cases today and about the same yesterday.  Where did they get 8000?

Its what the ONS estimate is the current number of new cases of the virus per day, rather than those that are just reported via testing. 

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1 hour ago, molecrochip said:

I expects that Carnival as a business have been waiting for Canada, Norway and our Chancellor to make their announcements before they make an further announcements. Now that has happened, one expects announcements may be more forthcoming. That said, I suspect a strong desire not to make the refund situation worse before it improves.

 

There was a fake social media account set up earlier which posted news of cancellations through 30 September. This wasn't an official announcement.

Thank you for this, an interesting take on current thinking and although I do not know which TA is being referred to (and I know that you can't say!) that seems to be a reasonable approach by them. 

 

I have an interest in this as this will directly impact.

 

I would assume that, given we are now approaching the start of June, all customers with either P&O direct bookings or TAs bookings will have been required to pay final balances for up to, and including, the end of August and end of September respectively.

 

Those customers who preferred to take an advance FCC (for health or other reasons) will in the main already have done so.

 

August passengers still have, in theory, the tempter of up to £600 OBC per cabin to retain their bookings.  This might have negatively impacted on the numbers deferring and taking the FCC for August only, to P&Os disadvantage if the sailings do then need to be cancelled.  If September was cancelled next week then some customers with some TAs would experience the issue that you outline.  

 

If the above is correct, and if we also assume, for instance, that any subsequent suspension is to the end of September in the first instance, then the problem around the refunds is already "built in."  This would compound for each week that a further announcement is delayed.  So it would make sense to make an early announcement given the emerging certainty.

 

I don't know this, but common sense  would say that acceptance of 125pc FCCs in any next cancellation group will also be softer because the 2021 prices are now quite "keen," and so the extra money will not always mean that a like for like holiday will be bookable for a similar price.  Also less people will have discretionary spending.

 

The only way to have avoided this would have been for the company to follow the decision taken by Fred Olsen as I understand it to reduce direct booking final balance payment dates to 30 days, instead of 90.  It is widely, and possibly unfairly assumed, that this is linked to cash flow; however genuine uncertainty of the international travel position could be another.

 

With respect to refunds, it may even be the case that the company (oddly) prefers that September cruisers with balances due in the next few weeks choose not to pay, so as to make the refund issue easier to navigate?

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16 minutes ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

Its what the ONS estimate is the current number of new cases of the virus per day, rather than those that are just reported via testing. 

And their reasoning for this four fold increase is what? Do enlighten us.

 

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