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More Cancellations Imminent?


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3 hours ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

Reviewed again on 1 July. The Greek health minister has said we're likely to be included in the next batch of countries, subject to our infection rate continuing to fall. 

 

2 hours ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

He was on a news report a few days ago (either BBC or Sky) saying that we were unlikely to make the list of countries allowed in straight away, which I'm guessing they've now confirmed. He then said that they'd review again etc etc. 

SorryI do not think he said that! 

Your guessing! The next stage!

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2 hours ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

Why has everyone suddenly switched to the ONS estimated figures? Is it because it makes a better story? If you're looking at other countries they're letting in, you've got to compare our current tested positive figures to theirs. Every country will have a proportion of people who have covid but don't get tested, and therefore they're never reported. You can't suddenly start saying we've got 8000 per day but Spain, Italy, Germany etc only have a few hundred. 

Would not even go there! If I was you!

Your record on this is not to be believed

Remember! what you have posted previously.

Nice to see that the garden centres are opened!

 

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5 hours ago, mercury7289 said:

Would not even go there! If I was you!

Your record on this is not to be believed

Remember! what you have posted previously.

Nice to see that the garden centres are opened!

 

 

6 hours ago, mercury7289 said:

 

SorryI do not think he said that! 

Your guessing! The next stage!

Yeah, you've got me, I've totally made it up 🙄

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9 hours ago, NoFlyGuy said:

And their reasoning for this four fold increase is what? Do enlighten us.

 


Unlike some, I have no political axe to grind on this subject, but only a few million tests have been done and many of those are the same person multiple times. Consequently only a tiny proportion of the UK population has been tested. Given that many people have had no symptoms or mild symptoms (no tests) or have had moderate symptoms but not gone for a test, either because they couldn’t, didn’t want to or the test station was too far away, it is very easy to see why the numbers who have / had the virus is many times the official numbers (which only relate to the proportion that have been tested). If the ONS says it’s about 4 times the number officially declared then based on all the above that sounds entirely believable to me. 

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33 minutes ago, Selbourne said:


Unlike some, I have no political axe to grind on this subject, but only a few million tests have been done and many of those are the same person multiple times. Consequently only a tiny proportion of the UK population has been tested. Given that many people have had no symptoms or mild symptoms (no tests) or have had moderate symptoms but not gone for a test, either because they couldn’t, didn’t want to or the test station was too far away, it is very easy to see why the numbers who have / had the virus is many times the official numbers (which only relate to the proportion that have been tested). If the ONS says it’s about 4 times the number officially declared then based on all the above that sounds entirely believable to me. 

I would happily go along with your observation.

I know lots of people who have had mild or bad symptoms and stayed at home and not been tested so the infection rate could even be a lot higher.

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40 minutes ago, grapau27 said:

I would happily go along with your observation.

I know lots of people who have had mild or bad symptoms and stayed at home and not been tested so the infection rate could even be a lot higher.


I know a lot of people who had very bad persistent coughs at the end of last year / beginning of this year and I wonder if / when there are widespread antibody tests that we will find that a heck of a lot of people under 50 might have had it and be oblivious to the fact. The ONS figures could well be a big understatement. Let’s hope so, as we are then some way towards herd immunity which, although it is seen as a bad expression now, is recognised by scientists as one of the few ways that we can live with this virus long term, until we are all vaccinated. 

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Yes quite possibly.  My friend who cruises with us had "bronchitis" in January.  It persisted, didn't respond to antibiotics, dreadful cough, fever, then shortness of breath.  She is nearly 100% better, but still can't walk as far without having to sit down to get her breath.  She is going to get tested for antibodies as soon as she can.  I'm sure she had it.

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12 hours ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

Its what the ONS estimate is the current number of new cases of the virus per day, rather than those that are just reported via testing. 

I estimate 47 new cases, no more cancellations and Norway cruises in August. Greece have said today they expect English visitors from 1 July.

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1 hour ago, grapau27 said:

I would happily go along with your observation.

I know lots of people who have had mild or bad symptoms and stayed at home and not been tested so the infection rate could even be a lot higher.

That's good news then. as it means the R is much lower. Could all be gone completely soon.

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47 minutes ago, Selbourne said:


I know a lot of people who had very bad persistent coughs at the end of last year / beginning of this year and I wonder if / when there are widespread antibody tests that we will find that a heck of a lot of people under 50 might have had it and be oblivious to the fact. The ONS figures could well be a big understatement. Let’s hope so, as we are then some way towards herd immunity which, although it is seen as a bad expression now, is recognised by scientists as one of the few ways that we can live with this virus long term, until we are all vaccinated. 


I agree that herd immunity is seen as a bad expression and rightly because at the outbreak of the outbreak, the idea seemed to be presented as though it didn’t matter if elderly and vulnerable people die because it would keep the rest of the population safer. Maybe I interpreted it wrongly, maybe it was badly presented and maybe it was true. 
 

However, it appears as though it may be a false hope anyway. We don’t know how long immunity lasts and if, as some suggest, it could only be a matter of months, people may become reinfected before a vaccine is approved as workable and safe. Even then, we may be faced with the vaccine only having a short term effect. This isn’t over yet but I am still hoping to be on Ventura at the end of October! 😷

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Just now, mercury7289 said:

Not Sky or BBC days ago!

Yes, because it would be impossible for the same news to be broadcast elsewhere 🙄

Get a grip and stop acting so obsessed with me. I asked you what you were alluding to a few weeks ago with your sly digs and you failed to reply. You've accused me of being a P&O plant, not to go there over things I've posted previously?!? and now that I'm lying about a news piece that I've seen (that someone else has now confirmed as true). 

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1 hour ago, Selbourne said:


I know a lot of people who had very bad persistent coughs at the end of last year / beginning of this year and I wonder if / when there are widespread antibody tests that we will find that a heck of a lot of people under 50 might have had it and be oblivious to the fact. The ONS figures could well be a big understatement. Let’s hope so, as we are then some way towards herd immunity which, although it is seen as a bad expression now, is recognised by scientists as one of the few ways that we can live with this virus long term, until we are all vaccinated. 

We came back with a cough from San Francisco in December after a 15 night Hawaiian cruise on Grand Princess.

We spoke to a number of Chinese people as there was a lot of Chinese on board.

We don't know but hope we have had a mild version of covid.

 

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1 hour ago, jeanlyon said:

Yes quite possibly.  My friend who cruises with us had "bronchitis" in January.  It persisted, didn't respond to antibiotics, dreadful cough, fever, then shortness of breath.  She is nearly 100% better, but still can't walk as far without having to sit down to get her breath.  She is going to get tested for antibodies as soon as she can.  I'm sure she had it.

I'm certain both Frank and I also had it in early February. We have never felt so ill. Cough, fever, difficulty in breathing,  headache, neck ,throat and ear pain. We just assumed flu and were  glad we'd had our jabs. It took over two weeks before we felt any better and even now we still don't have the energy that we used to.

Avril 

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31 minutes ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

Yes, because it would be impossible for the same news to be broadcast elsewhere 🙄

Get a grip and stop acting so obsessed with me. I asked you what you were alluding to a few weeks ago with your sly digs and you failed to reply. You've accused me of being a P&O plant, not to go there over things I've posted previously?!? and now that I'm lying about a news piece that I've seen (that someone else has now confirmed as true). 

Not exactly!

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1 hour ago, zap99 said:

That's good news then. as it means the R is much lower. Could all be gone completely soon.


Although the ONS figures are far closer to reality than the government figures (which only relate to the small proportion of people who have been tested), even if you look at the largest estimates of the proportion of the UK that might have had the virus, it’s still only a relatively small minority, meaning that the vast majority of us haven’t had it and are therefore at risk!


I am relieved, but quite surprised, that the R hasn’t gone above 1 again. Time will tell what happens but in reality it’s difficult to know what to believe. I heard a very interesting   phone in on the radio the other day where several care home workers called in to say that they felt that care home deaths attributable to Covid-19 were being overstated as people were being put under pressure (don’t know from whom) to attribute deaths to the virus when, in many cases, they didn’t feel that it had been the case. My view is that the only way we will really know is the total number of UK deaths during the period of the virus versus the average number of UK deaths in the UK over the past 5 years. Thankfully that is being looked at but, again, that won’t really give us the whole picture, as I have always felt that as many people could die from the knock on effect of the virus than from the virus itself, not least because the NHS virtually shut down other than for Covid-19. The fact that, at one time, people reporting with heart attack or stroke symptoms was down by over a half means that a lot of people who should have been checked out and had stents or life saving medication haven’t and are now walking time bombs. And as for early stage cancer diagnosis, just wait for the explosion in cancer cases over the next few years where people have been reluctant to see a GP. On that cheery note.......

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3 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

And as for early stage cancer diagnosis, just wait for the explosion in cancer cases over the next few years where people have been reluctant to see a GP. On that cheery note.......

Strewth Selbourne. One problem at a time pleeease.  😕

Avril 

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Most of the figures are estimates , e.g. the ONS survey, or complex back calculation R , or like number of confirmed cases function of amount of testing.

 

Only two solid consistent numbers, 

 

The number of people ill enough to be admitted to hospital , and deaths.

 

Both of these are still going DOWN, let's hope hope it keeps heading that way

 

 

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14 hours ago, NoFlyGuy said:

Was it 'some' or 'a'?

5 members now including chair of NERVTAG, the respiratory group within SAGE, all eminent experts in their field. Starting to see SAGE members distancing themselves from the Government 

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