Carnival shares

[oskidunker]

Earnings announced. Worse than expected. Stock going up, not down. Please correct me if wrong  Thanks

[Ombud]

You're not wrong BUT Carnival Corporate also just announced that they are moving up sales of old ships (different from 'selling' from one line to another .....). Heard that there's an India line buying at least 1 from P&O Australia (that used to be a Princess ship)

[caribill]

14 hours ago, mnocket said:

 

When were these sales?  It's hard to believe anyone would want to buy an old cruise ship today - except for scrap.

 

Today-s press release by CCL Corp:

"In connection with its capacity optimization strategy, the company intends to accelerate the removal of ships in fiscal 2020 which were previously expected to be sold over the ensuing years. The company already has preliminary agreements for the disposal of 6 ships which are expected to leave the fleet in the next 90 days and is currently working toward additional agreements."

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-corporation-plc-reports-summary-second-quarter-results

 

 

[drsel]

You're not wrong BUT Carnival Corporate also just announced that they are moving up sales of old ships (different from 'selling' from one line to another .....). Heard that there's an India line buying at least 1 from P&O Australia (that used to be a Princess ship)

That's jalesh karnika bought by Zen Cruises, part of the Zee group in India

[oskidunker]

Bought another 100 shares at 18.89. Norwegian and Rcl are up today. I expect we are down because of earnings report. Probably the manipulators will buy after hours to drive it up. But who knows. I may leave it until a vaccine and then take profits to pay for cruises. Its something to do. 

[Daniel A]

32 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

Today-s press release by CCL Corp:

"In connection with its capacity optimization strategy, the company intends to accelerate the removal of ships in fiscal 2020 which were previously expected to be sold over the ensuing years. The company already has preliminary agreements for the disposal of 6 ships which are expected to leave the fleet in the next 90 days and is currently working toward additional agreements."

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-corporation-plc-reports-summary-second-quarter-results

It looks as if they're planning on selling more than 6 ships.  See above in red.

[Ombud]

I read elsewhere that CCL has targeted 6 pre-2000 ships in the Carnival Cruise Line branch that might go. If true, then I imagine corporate would carry that through to HAL (5), Princess (4 + Pacific Princess), Aida (2), P&O Australia (1 older ship by 2021), Costa (1). 3 have no pre-2000 ships: Cunard / P&O / Seaborn

Edited June 18, 2020 by Ombud

[mnocket]

2 hours ago, caribill said:

 

Today-s press release by CCL Corp:

"In connection with its capacity optimization strategy, the company intends to accelerate the removal of ships in fiscal 2020 which were previously expected to be sold over the ensuing years. The company already has preliminary agreements for the disposal of 6 ships which are expected to leave the fleet in the next 90 days and is currently working toward additional agreements."

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-corporation-plc-reports-summary-second-quarter-results

 

 

Yeah, I read an article on Cruise News.  It also quoted the CEO saying

 

"I’d go so far as to say it’s highly probable you’re going to see some ships actually scrapped as opposed to just moving to secondary or tertiary markets."

 

So I wasn't totally off questioning who would want to buy an old cruise ship in this environment.  

[oskidunker]

On 6/17/2020 at 9:09 PM, neverbeenhere said:

The volatility of CCL at this point is a great short term trading opportunity. If you can catch the bouncing ball correctly, you will make a lot of cash.

 

since the cdc has extended ports being closed through Sept, the stock is down a  bit. Good buying opportunity. 
 

 

 

 

 

[Pierlesscruisers]

On 5/31/2020 at 5:52 AM, lstone19 said:

 

Since you, gmjc2, are in the U.S, when you hold the shares in a brokerage account ("street name" in Wall St. jargon), on the records of the company (e.g. Carnival), the brokerage is the owner. You are the beneficial owner by virtue of the brokerage holding the shares in your account for you (the only way to be the legal owner on the company's books is to have a certificate issued and these days, almost nobody does that as most brokerages charge to have a certificate issued). So in the end, it a copy of your brokerage statement that is the proof that you are the beneficial owner of the shares.

I''ll be darned. Learn something every day.  Thanks for the info.

 

Tom

[gmjc2]

On 6/17/2020 at 7:05 PM, Ombud said:

We're all different.  There's no way I'd hold an initial 27c stock where my investment went from 2k to 20k in a matter of days without planning an exit point even in these weird times. Pay my capital gains and move on. Happens. 

Thanks for the education. Who says you can't teach an old dog new tricks!!!!

[npcl]

CCL credit rating got down graded by both S&P to BB- and Moody's to Ba1.  CCL is now in junk bond territory by both credit agencies.

[oskidunker]

Rcl and ncl are more risky. If ccl fails, cruising is done. Ill take a chance .bought 100 shares at 8.9. Now 17.50.  Bought more Monday. Have made money. 

[mnocket]

16 hours ago, npcl said:

CCL credit rating got down graded by both S&P to BB- and Moody's to Ba1.  CCL is now in junk bond territory by both credit agencies.

Plus they are now trying raise another $1.5B in the bond market.  This looks to me to be a company that is in survival mode  (as are most cruise lines).  Their hope is that they can borrow enough money to bridge them to an unknown future where they hope they will return to profitability and not drown under the acquired debt.  As such, I do not see this as an investment stock.  It's purely a speculative stock.  Nothing wrong with investing in some speculative stocks as long as you realize that it's more like gambling (e.g. playing a hunch) and accordingly you don't play with money you can't afford to lose.

[mellon1]

Curious which ships Princess is selling???  We love the Grand class ships, even though they are older.  New ones to big for us.  Wondering what everyone else's opinion is about the Grand class ships.

[dockman]

Patience sometimes can be rewarding.  I bought fairly low and anticipate holding for five years.  Lots of day traders having a field day with CCL right now and some no doubt making big bucks.  I expect it will likely go down some more but I also expect that it will go up again.  IF IF and when an effective vaccine is announced I suspect it will shoot up quickly.  It's a better bet to me than anything in a casino.

 

[drsel]

CCL credit rating got down graded by both S&P to BB- and Moody's to Ba1.  CCL is now in junk bond territory by both credit agencies.

S&P downgraded carnival by three notches from BBB- triple b minus to BB- double b minus.

 

Moody's downgraded Carnival one notch from Ba1 to Ba2

 

Ba2 is equivalent to BB, one level higher than the BB- rating given by S&P.

 

Both BB- and Ba2 ratings indicate inadequate safety or junk status

 

 

 

 

[drsel]

Patience sometimes can be rewarding.  I bought fairly low and anticipate holding for five years.  Lots of day traders having a field day with CCL right now and some no doubt making big bucks.  I expect it will likely go down some more but I also expect that it will go up again.  IF IF and when an effective vaccine is announced I suspect it will shoot up quickly.  It's a better bet to me than anything in a casino.
 

In a land casino, your chances of winning are nearly 47%
In a Cruise casino it is a little less.

[dockman]

25 minutes ago, drsel said:

In a land casino, your chances of winning are nearly 47%
In a Cruise casino it is a little less.

 

Never heard those stats.  I guess if by winning you mean being up at some point but how many people get home with more $$ than they had when they walked into the casino.  I highly doubt that 47% of the people leave a casino a winner.

 

One of my employees used to go to vegas a lot and would always come back all excited that she had "won" a jackpot of $500 or so....i would ask so u came home up $500 and she would say well you know i lost $1000 playing blackjack...many a casino has profited from that type of logic.

[caribill]

11 hours ago, dockman said:

 

Never heard those stats.  I guess if by winning you mean being up at some point but how many people get home with more $$ than they had when they walked into the casino.  I highly doubt that 47% of the people leave a casino a winner.

 

 

 

What it meant is than an individual bet has a 47% chance of the better winning and 53% chance that the house wins.

 

Over a serious of bets, on the average, the house will win and the player will leave the casino a looser.

[drsel]

Exactly.

it's not like 47% of casino players make money.

Every bet has a maximum of 47% chances of winning so the more you bet, the more you will lose in the long run because the odds are always going to be against you.

 

Even if you bet on only black or only red in Russian roulette, you will still end up losing money, because 0 and 00 both have no colour.

 

However, 47% is the chance of winning in a highly regulated land casino.

In an unregulated cruise casino, it is much less than 47%

 

 

 

[drsel]

there is a rational and logical way to invest in a stock which fluctuates wildly like Carnival.

 

Buy

1 share at. 14,

2 shares at 13

3 shares at 12

4 shares at 11 and so on

 

So if it falls to 11, you will end up with 10 shares @ $12, a tiny investment.

And if it falls to 1 you will end up with 105 shares @ $5.33 only, an investment amount less than what you would pay for a 7 night cruise for just one person!

 

You can also use a multiple of 10 if you want to invest much more.

Then if it falls to 11, you will end up with 100 shares @ $12, minimum required to get free shareholder onboard credit of $100 per cabin.

And if it falls to 1 you will end up with 1050 shares @ $5.33 only.

 

But you will always have bought the maximum number of shares at the lowest price!

 

Unless the Carnival group goes bankrupt (I don't think it will), you will make a huge profit.

 

You can book profits when the pandemic is officially over and cruising resumes in full swing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[AZTX]

Google: CCL for current share price.
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