When will things start back up?

[clo]

8 hours ago, pinotlover said:

All speculation, no crystal ball. 

I remain content, for now, that we booked for 3rd qtr '22 and are looking at another for later that year. We shall see.

[Hawaiidan]

in the HAVE FAITH, department , based on  health officials  today in UK they are saying that they are looking foward to the country being full opened by June.   

Too Talking to friends in Northern France and Switzerland they tell me things are looking up and restrictions may soon be gone.

I have a horse in this race as I am booked  end of Sept 2021 and have confidence. Being in the" older than dirt" catigory means vaccine by Mid Jan or earily Feb   With several more Vaccines on the way to Jan clearance that should get much of the US and world by june or at the latest July if the drug makers production forecasts  of what they can produce by then....   Growth  is supposed to be exponential...

So Pour your self a sherry and light up a cigar .... odds are with you..... Have  faith.

[pinotlover]

10 hours ago, Hawaiidan said:

in the HAVE FAITH, department , based on  health officials  today in UK they are saying that they are looking foward to the country being full opened by June.   

Too Talking to friends in Northern France and Switzerland they tell me things are looking up and restrictions may soon be gone.

I have a horse in this race as I am booked  end of Sept 2021 and have confidence. Being in the" older than dirt" catigory means vaccine by Mid Jan or earily Feb   With several more Vaccines on the way to Jan clearance that should get much of the US and world by june or at the latest July if the drug makers production forecasts  of what they can produce by then....   Growth  is supposed to be exponential...

So Pour your self a sherry and light up a cigar .... odds are with you..... Have  faith.

Dan;

 

I agree, sometime 3rd Qtr is very doable. July might be optimistic while September  is clearly reasonable. Depends upon how much input those like Fauci have that refuse to take economic consequences into consideration.

 

A separate concern is that some countries may opt to do as Argentina is. Their announced plan is to open back up in December ( their summer) for their citizens only, and not allow foreign visitors in until March. If Europe did the same next year, it would translate into sailings not beginning until September.

[Tranquility Base]

Yes; each and every country will be making decisions regarding their Covid border controls over the next 6 - 12 months.

 

EG:

1. Do the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from getting and transmitting the virus ?

2. What level of vaccination of our own population is required before we open borders to vaccinated people ?

3. What level is required before opening to non vaccinated people ?

4. Is every different vaccine acceptable for entry into the country ?

5. If booster shots are required what timeframe buffer will be insisted upon for entry permission ?

 

There is not one size fits all.

Cruise ships will merely be the messengers of whatever the country requirements are, just as they are now with visas. 

 

2021 will certainly be a year of discovery.

Vaccine scientific discovery, delivery logistics discovery, country requirements discovery, and how well the cruise lines keep up with the rapid changes worldwide.

 

Will 2021 be a year of travel discovery ?

Tune into the same bat time, same bat channel in 6 months.

[ToxM]

My mum and I are due on Sirenia May 2021, have paid final balance, and are in the wait and see category. We have to sail Southampton - Southampton due to her mobility issues, and she is desperate to get away. I am 60/40 we will sail, if we don’t we will have to retry and rebook another later in the year but she is desperate to sail in May as she has had a he.l of a year health wise and needs this break. We are both in the position be within the first wave of vaccine deployment here in the UK her because of her age me because of co morbidities so should be fully vaccinated by end of February. The current european ruling of a 7 day only cruise concerns me as ours is 10 days, but I suppose there could be a chance that due to the start and end points being Southampton a radical change of itinerary could allow it to carry on if the guidelines aren’t changed. Changing the itinerary isn’t a concern for us as my mum’s mobility issues means this is pretty much a every day is a sea day trip and no ports. 

 

We are sitting on our hands and waiting. It would be a shame for her if my Cunard trip went ahead and ours didn’t but time will tell. 

[Jancruz]

My October 2 Regatta is looking pretty good..

Jancruz1

[Hawaiidan]

3 hours ago, pinotlover said:

Dan;

 

I agree, sometime 3rd Qtr is very doable. July might be optimistic while September  is clearly reasonable. Depends upon how much input those like Fauci have that refuse to take economic consequences into consideration.

 

A separate concern is that some countries may opt to do as Argentina is. Their announced plan is to open back up in December ( their summer) for their citizens only, and not allow foreign visitors in until March. If Europe did the same next year, it would translate into sailings not beginning until September.

n which case My Sept 20 cruise is gold....    I hope others with travel desires have their dreams fulfilled.

[clo]

6 hours ago, pinotlover said:

agree, sometime 3rd Qtr is very doable.

Somebody on another board did the math. UK has a population of 66,000,000. If they could vaccinate 100,000 a day it would take about 2 years to vaccinate every one. Once. But likely it will be twice. My cruise booked for 3rd quarter 2022 doesn't look that good when the math is done.

[ToxM]

1 hour ago, clo said:

Somebody on another board did the math. UK has a population of 66,000,000. If they could vaccinate 100,000 a day it would take about 2 years to vaccinate every one. Once. But likely it will be twice. My cruise booked for 3rd quarter 2022 doesn't look that good when the math is done.

 

It sounds like we are making lots and lots of venues available for mass vaccination - even down to veterinary practices. We have a lot of testing centres and I expect a lot of those will be made available as well. If we can manage 500,000 tests per day I am pretty confident we can do at least that in vaccines. The NHS is a very very remarkably agile machine when it needs to be and we also have unused capacity at our Nightingale Hospitals. I think we will easily surpass 100k capacity per day once we get into our stride. 

 

The first wave of vaccinations looks to be the most vulnerable members of society, which by dint of demographics would include lots of us UK cruisers. Once people realise they are almost certainly going to be needing a vaccine to participate in society in any manner of the old normal we will get a large % of the population getting vaccinated. 

 

Once Joe Public realise they can’t book a holiday, go to a concert, travel on a plane, go to a different country on business, maybe even check into a hotel without proof of a vaccine the take up will soar. 

 

 

[Rob the Cruiser]

On 12/2/2020 at 8:02 PM, clo said:

I remain content, for now, that we booked for 3rd qtr '22 and are looking at another for later that year. We shall see.

 

That's our plan as well.

[Doubt It]

21 hours ago, Tranquility Base said:

Yes; each and every country will be making decisions regarding their Covid border controls over the next 6 - 12 months.

 

EG:

1. Do the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from getting and transmitting the virus ?

2. What level of vaccination of our own population is required before we open borders to vaccinated people ?

3. What level is required before opening to non vaccinated people ?

4. Is every different vaccine acceptable for entry into the country ?

5. If booster shots are required what timeframe buffer will be insisted upon for entry permission ?

 

There is not one size fits all.

Cruise ships will merely be the messengers of whatever the country requirements are, just as they are now with visas. 

 

2021 will certainly be a year of discovery.

Vaccine scientific discovery, delivery logistics discovery, country requirements discovery, and how well the cruise lines keep up with the rapid changes worldwide.

 

Will 2021 be a year of travel discovery ?

Tune into the same bat time, same bat channel in 6 months.

Good questions.

 

On 1) there is no proof the vaccines will prohibit a person getting the virus and no proof, if they get the virus, that it will not be transmitted.

 

The Celebrity board has an outstanding threat on the vaccines with very knowledgeable posters who provide an excellent number of links to important information.  There has been numerous analysis about 1) and the CEO of one of the companies indicated - no company has tested for 1) above. This was reported on numerous media sites.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-19/vaccines-from-pfizer-moderna-fight-covid-19-but-may-not-stop-spread

 

The public is misinformed about the vaccine benefits.

 

[shank63]

47 minutes ago, Doubt It said:

 

On 1) there is no proof the vaccines will prohibit a person getting the virus and no proof, if they get the virus, that it will not be transmitted.

 

The drug company trials show 90% and better results and FDA is in the final approval tests.  While there is not 100% protection against getting the virus, I will not hesitate in getting 90% protection of getting the symptoms of covid.  Few things in life are 100% certain other than death.  As far as transmitting the virus, anyone who chooses not to take the vaccine must be prohibited from traveling on airplanes, trains, cruise ships and taxi cabs.  Pre travel testing and on board testing have been recommended and I would highly endorse these measures for the time being.  I am optimistic that we will be cruising sometime in mid 2021.

[ORV]

1 hour ago, shank63 said:

The drug company trials show 90% and better results and FDA is in the final approval tests.  While there is not 100% protection against getting the virus, I will not hesitate in getting 90% protection of getting the symptoms of covid.  Few things in life are 100% certain other than death.  As far as transmitting the virus, anyone who chooses not to take the vaccine must be prohibited from traveling on airplanes, trains, cruise ships and taxi cabs.  Pre travel testing and on board testing have been recommended and I would highly endorse these measures for the time being.  I am optimistic that we will be cruising sometime in mid 2021.

Just look at the name of the poster you quoted and follow that advice about anything they post. That's what I do. 

[LHT28]

2 hours ago, shank63 said:

Pre travel testing and on board testing have been recommended and I would highly endorse these measures for the time being.  I am optimistic that we will be cruising sometime in mid 2021.

People are travelling now without the vaccine

That is more worrisome   as they are spreading the virus far & wide

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/couple-positive-covid-arrested-flying-160227358.html

[Paulchili]

4 hours ago, shank63 said:

As far as transmitting the virus, anyone who chooses not to take the vaccine must be prohibited from traveling on airplanes, trains, cruise ships and taxi cabs

The whole purpose of getting the vaccine is that you don't have to worry about people who are not vaccinated - you should be 94 - 95% protected from them.

[Doubt It]

5 hours ago, ORV said:

Just look at the name of the poster you quoted and follow that advice about anything they post. That's what I do. 

Thanks ORV.

[Tranquility Base]

It is being reported on CC that Quantum of the Seas is returning to port with a Covid case onboard.

It will be interesting to discover the circumstances.

 

If Singapore can't manage a 3 day cruise to nowhere it will be big concern for other operators thinking of starting anytime soon.

[Paulchili]

45 minutes ago, Tranquility Base said:

It is being reported on CC that Quantum of the Seas is returning to port with a Covid case onboard.

It will be interesting to discover the circumstances.

 

If Singapore can't manage a 3 day cruise to nowhere it will be big concern for other operators thinking of starting anytime soon.

What if it turns out to be a false positive?

It will still be a mess but at least a harmless mess.

[pinotlover]

9 hours ago, Tranquility Base said:

It is being reported on CC that Quantum of the Seas is returning to port with a Covid case onboard.

It will be interesting to discover the circumstances.

 

If Singapore can't manage a 3 day cruise to nowhere it will be big concern for other operators thinking of starting anytime soon.

This is the reason I believe cruising, as we know it, won’t restart until mid to late 3rd Qtr 2021, and only for those vaccinated. If enough cruisers can’t get vaccinated by then to make it profitable, it will be pushed out further. 
 

All of these ships are sitting in cool or cold storage to conserve cash. The cruise lines will have to feel comfortable enough, with the vaccination rates, to even consider spending money to bring them out. I don’t think that happens until at least April, then add 2-3 months for ship and crew preparations. Even then, the ships will come out gradually. It’ll be at least 4th Qtr before some sail, depending upon the itinerary. FDR has already said as much. 

[Tranquility Base]

8 hours ago, Paulchili said:

What if it turns out to be a false positive?

It will still be a mess but at least a harmless mess.

Updates are coming through that indicate indeed this maybe the case.

If so, good news.

If this is the case then further study will no doubt be done regarding onboard testing facilities.

[Tranquility Base]

44 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

This is the reason I believe cruising, as we know it, won’t restart until mid to late 3rd Qtr 2021, and only for those vaccinated. If enough cruisers can’t get vaccinated by then to make it profitable, it will be pushed out further. 

There will be different vaccines in use all around the world.

Some with efficiency in the 70s, some in the 80s, some in the 90s.

Obviously these efficiency rates are what cruise ships with vaccinated passengers & crew will be operating with.

 

By the end of 2021 there will still be many countries around the world where only a  small  percentage of their population has been able to receive a vaccine.

 

Covid will still be a threat for all of 2021 I reckon.

 

I'm keeping my powder dry for travel "as we know it" till 2022.

Even then, I think many, if not all, of the cruising Covid procedures & precautions we see being currently discussed  will still be applicable.

 

Edited December 9, 2020 by Tranquility Base

[clo]

10 hours ago, Paulchili said:

What if it turns out to be a false positive?

It will still be a mess but at least a harmless mess.

It really seems like the testing right now is a big hot mess. I know a man - actually works for O - whose son's classmate got COVID, son tested positive but he was asymptomatic and dad was sick for six weeks and lost 20# but tested negative FOUR times.

[Paulchili]

2 hours ago, Tranquility Base said:

I'm keeping my powder dry for travel "as we know it" till 2022.

Even then, I think many, if not all, of the cruising Covid procedures & precautions we see being currently discussed  will still be applicable

Like many of the post 9/11 safety procedures, especially at the airport, that we now take for granted and do not question.

[sunlover12]

On a bit of a positive note, I saw a NCL television commercial today.  First time I have seen a commercial from any cruise line in 9 months. 

[susiesan]

On 12/9/2020 at 10:45 AM, clo said:

It really seems like the testing right now is a big hot mess. I know a man - actually works for O - whose son's classmate got COVID, son tested positive but he was asymptomatic and dad was sick for six weeks and lost 20# but tested negative FOUR times.

Which is why I refuse to get tested for any reason.

 

Since there are likely not to be any cruises for a very long time, maybe none in 2021 I just put together a land trip in Costa Rica in January. No pre entry covid tests, no quarantine required. I also have a land trip in Namibia May 7. If the Marina Baltic Aug. 29 happens, great. if not, I'll go somewhere else by plane. I like cruises but I also like DIY land trips.