Cruise lines meeting with CDC

[broberts]

24 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

...

An article in the Wall Street Journal reported that the chances of a person dying from the virus is very much a function of where they live.  The average American not living in NYC chances of death is around 1 in 5000, very comparable to their chances of dying in an auto accident.  The average American under the age of fifty and not living in NYC chances are around one in fifty thousand. 

...

 

The conclusion is based on the faulty assumption that all areas are at the same stage of viral spread. Were the article written today, the data would show significantly different resulr. If it is written in two weeks it might well report higher death rates in areas with substantially less health care infrastructure.

[RocketMan275]

1 hour ago, broberts said:

 

The conclusion is based on the faulty assumption that all areas are at the same stage of viral spread. Were the article written today, the data would show significantly different resulr. If it is written in two weeks it might well report higher death rates in areas with substantially less health care infrastructure.

Maybe, perhaps, possibly, who knows.  The article was published on 2 June.

[seaoma]

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

f an average American living in the heartland isn’t concerned about dying in an auto accident on his way to Walmart, why should he worry about wearing a mask inside of Walmart?  It’s as if one should argue that we shouldn’t drive to Walmart because that might result in an auto fatality.  It’s very understandable that these average Americans might consider wearing a mask at Walmart is an over-reaction.

 

Yet, I bet they wear their seatbelt. If they are driving a fairly new car they have the improved safety features of airbags, anti-lock brakes, electronic stability control, shatter resistant glass, and accident avoidance technology. So, with all of these safety features, you can still die and you can kill some other people too.

 

Wearing a mask is no different. It's a safety feature that helps those exposed to you, not die. Just like those safety features in that new car.

 

 

[RocketMan275]

16 minutes ago, seaoma said:

 

Yet, I bet they wear their seatbelt. If they are driving a fairly new car they have the improved safety features of airbags, anti-lock brakes, electronic stability control, shatter resistant glass, and accident avoidance technology. So, with all of these safety features, you can still die and you can kill some other people too.

 

Wearing a mask is no different. It's a safety feature that helps those exposed to you, not die. Just like those safety features in that new car.

 

 

The fact remains that to most people the virus is no bigger a threat than a car accident or a fire.  It's very understandable that there are many who do not feel wearing a mask is justified.

[seaoma]

1 minute ago, RocketMan275 said:

The fact remains that to most people the virus is no bigger a threat than a car accident or a fire.  It's very understandable that there are many who do not feel wearing a mask is justified.

 

Actually, we don't know the long term health ramifications to having had Covid.

 

 

[HAL4NOW]

3 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

The fact remains that to most people the virus is no bigger a threat than a car accident or a fire.  It's very understandable that there are many who do not feel wearing a mask is justified.

When seatbelts were first introduced, many did not use them. I found seatbelts to be uncomfortable and a little irritating, and I didn't trust that they would actually help. As data showed their effectiveness, more people began to use seatbelts. When they became required (Click-It or Ticket!) many more people began to comply. As a chaplain in a volunteer fire department, I am very pleased that people are wearing seatbelts and benefiting from air bags, etc.. Individuals are walking away from accidents that would have been certain death in the pre-seatbelt days.

Data on the masks is growing. They are required some places and highly recommended other places. I have a mask with me  almost always now, and use it when I cannot keep social distancing. Many have thanked me, while others have derided me. I wear the mask because I care about others. I don't have any idea if it is necessary or if it is helping. I think it is worth the inconvenience.

[Cruising-along]

33 minutes ago, seaoma said:

 

Actually, we don't know the long term health ramifications to having had Covid.

 

 

Exactly.  I know (only) one person who has had Covid, but 3 months later and she's still living with the problems resulting from it.  She was never ill enough to be hospitalized but that's only because she never needed to be put on a respirator.  I know one thing, if I felt as sick as she did and still does, I may have wished I could die.  

 

There has been a news item lately about the hairstylist who had Covid, didn't know it, and exposed something like 140 people.  But because she wore a mask and all the patrons did, none of them have tested positive.  Masks work.

[broberts]

50 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

The fact remains that to most people the virus is no bigger a threat than a car accident or a fire.  It's very understandable that there are many who do not feel wearing a mask is justified.

 

Except that the virus can kill parents, grand parents and many others not in the vehicle.

 

It is not understandable that mask wearing has become a badge of politics. To a mask wearer it simply looks like insanity.

[RocketMan275]

45 minutes ago, HAL4NOW said:

When seatbelts were first introduced, many did not use them. I found seatbelts to be uncomfortable and a little irritating, and I didn't trust that they would actually help. As data showed their effectiveness, more people began to use seatbelts. When they became required (Click-It or Ticket!) many more people began to comply. As a chaplain in a volunteer fire department, I am very pleased that people are wearing seatbelts and benefiting from air bags, etc.. Individuals are walking away from accidents that would have been certain death in the pre-seatbelt days.

Data on the masks is growing. They are required some places and highly recommended other places. I have a mask with me  almost always now, and use it when I cannot keep social distancing. Many have thanked me, while others have derided me. I wear the mask because I care about others. I don't have any idea if it is necessary or if it is helping. I think it is worth the inconvenience.

I appreciate your analogy.  Seatbelts have saved many. 

All drivers face essentially the same dangers which is why every driver should wear one.  Not all locations share the same dangers from the virus.  It is unreasonable to apply the same protocols for high threat areas to all areas.

My second issue is the presumption that those who do not wear masks do not care about others.    

[RocketMan275]

11 minutes ago, broberts said:

 

Except that the virus can kill parents, grand parents and many others not in the vehicle.

 

It is not understandable that mask wearing has become a badge of politics. To a mask wearer it simply looks like insanity.

If New York had not sent infected patients to nursing homes it would have protected the most vulnerable much better than having everyone wear a mask.

 

Decisions to wear or not wear a mask should not be considered politics.  Nor should that decision be considered evidence of whether a person cares or doesn't.

Edited June 12, 2020 by RocketMan275

[npcl]

9 minutes ago, Cruising-along said:

Exactly.  I know (only) one person who has had Covid, but 3 months later and she's still living with the problems resulting from it.  She was never ill enough to be hospitalized but that's only because she never needed to be put on a respirator.  I know one thing, if I felt as sick as she did and still does, I may have wished I could die.  

 

There has been a news item lately about the hairstylist who had Covid, didn't know it, and exposed something like 140 people.  But because she wore a mask and all the patrons did, none of them have tested positive.  Masks work.

Unlike flu and many other respiratory infections COVID-19 has some very unusual behavior.  You have people that have had relatively minor cases (not requiring hospitalization, but where the symptoms have lasted for months.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/mild-coronavirus-cases-recovery-symptoms-last-a-month-2020-4

 

You have people that have recovered, but have major long term health effects.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/mild-coronavirus-cases-recovery-symptoms-last-a-month-2020-4

 

The negative health impacts of COVID-19 go well beyond just the mortality numbers.

 

The funny thing is if everyone were to wear keep their distance, and wear a mask when they cannot, especially in inside locations, other restrictions would not be necessary.  Masks do work, especially when worn by someone that is infected to prevent spreading it to others.

[npcl]

12 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

I appreciate your analogy.  Seatbelts have saved many. 

All drivers face essentially the same dangers which is why every driver should wear one.  Not all locations share the same dangers from the virus.  It is unreasonable to apply the same protocols for high threat areas to all areas.

My second issue is the presumption that those who do not wear masks do not care about others.    

It seems rather obvious to me, if one was concerned about others they would wear a mask.

 

Many of the areas that were low threat were so because the virus had not effectively gotten there yet.  Some of them are now getting it in larger numbers.  Reduced travel limited some of the major outbreak to areas with considerable international travel.  The cut back in travel reduced the spread rate to more rural areas.  Some of those are now starting to get their initial spread with the relaxing restrictions.

Edited June 12, 2020 by npcl

[npcl]

24 minutes ago, Dwight1 said:

The real solution was and is to issue enough tests so everyone can be tested and repeatedly like in China. Masks are used because most people don’t know if they have the virus because testing in the US is abysmal and continues to be. The necessary anti body tests to see who had it and immune for some time period are also lacking. In effect we wearing a semi effective cloth on our face because our Government was totally unprepared and basically still is. Their progress so far is still a failure. If everyone had tests performed the situation would be resolved in a month. Now it will drag on for many months.


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Even in China, and other countries that have considerable testing still wear masks.  

 

Even if you tested everyone the problem is even PCR tests have a 40% false negative rate, depending upon when in the cycle the test is taken, the false negative rate is even higher.  You have people with severe symptoms that test negative multiple times with different tests, before finally testing positive.  One Doctor wrote about his case.  Had all of the symptoms, tested negative 4 times, finally got a positive test from a deep lung sample. One paper had the false negative rate of PCR tests in the 80% in the first 5 days of infection.

 

The test at best only gives a result for that instant.  The person could be infected the next day, next week, next month.  So how often do you want to test?  How do you select those to be tested with the number of asymptomatic cases out there?  How often do you test the same person if they test negative?

 

Testing is one tool, a relatively expensive one with limited accuracy.  Best used as a confirmation tool, and to test those that have come in contact with a known positive case in conjunction with contact tracing

 

Masks are another tool that is pretty cheap and easily obtained.  The problem is they work best to prevent an infected person from putting virus out into an area.  Not much use if those that feel that they are not at risk, that are participating in activities that are risky do not wear them.  Since they are actually more likely to encounter the virus in the first place.

 

China does group tests.  That is they combine samples for 100 people and run one test.  If it comes back positive they test everyone individually.  They also make test mandatory and put tracking devices on those in quarantine.  They also mark houses when someone tests positive.  Considering the resistance to even minor requirements would be interesting to see how mandatory testing and other Chinese type methods would work in the US.

 

Where I am at I can get a test in an hour or two, if I chose to get one, and I am in one of the lower testing rate states.  Are you saying that you could not easily get a test now if you want one?

Edited June 12, 2020 by npcl

[HAL4NOW]

34 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

My second issue is the presumption that those who do not wear masks do not care about others.    

Hopefully you didn't get that presumption from my stating that I wear a mask because I do care about others. There are many reasons to not wear a mask. A person may have a medical condition that hinders their breathing, they might not have a mask, they may think that because they don't have any symptoms they don't need to take precautions, they may be ignorant of the potential risks/benefits, they may have bought into the political bent of thinking that masks are for liberals, they might not care about others. 

[The Beaver]

2 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

The fact remains that to most people the virus is no bigger a threat than a car accident or a fire.  It's very understandable that there are many who do not feel wearing a mask is justified.

 

This young lady and her doctors will not agree with your diagnosis :

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/06/12/covid-19-coronavirus-leads-to-double-lung-transplant-for-woman-in-her-20s/#40da2bb0e070

[SeaHunt]

4 hours ago, Mandalay1903 said:

Very interesting chart, and nice graphics. Thank you for posting it.  Just to be fair, I don't see causes such as cancer, heart failure, or accidents (other than drowning) or natural causes represented. The numbers shown are noted to represent only about 7% of the worldwide deaths. This chart shows Covid-19 rising up through the lower ranks of causes of death.

 

BTW, has anyone heard an update to the cruise line meetings with the CDC, the original purpose for this post?

 

I haven't heard any reported results from the meeting, but did pay more attention to this part of OP's article when I reread it again (underlined):

 

"Wells Fargo Analyst Tim Conder, in a recent note to investors, confirmed the meeting is scheduled but added that he does not believe it "will address the current suspension of sailings in U.S. waters through July 24," but instead focus on crew repatriation".

 

So if it's about the crew maybe we won't get any info?

 

Also, here's a 5/31/20 chart comparing Covid-19 and other common causes of death in the US between February and May:

 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-19-compared-to-other-common-us-causes-of-death-2020-5

[kazu]

27 minutes ago, SeaHunt said:

 

 

 

Also, here's a 5/31/20 chart comparing Covid-19 and other common causes of death in the US between February and May:

 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-19-compared-to-other-common-us-causes-of-death-2020-5

 

If you look at projections, covid is going to take over heart disease sadly - especially in the United States.  I hope the projections are wrong but I fear they are not.  

 

My prayers to all.  I hope the partisan stuff disappears and everyone wears a mask.  Here we are doing so and other than an outbreak because of one person who broke the rules, we are so far so good.

Stay safe all and listen to the scientist and physicians.

[cruisemom42]

1 hour ago, kazu said:

 

If you look at projections, covid is going to take over heart disease sadly - especially in the United States.  I hope the projections are wrong but I fear they are not.  

 

My prayers to all.  I hope the partisan stuff disappears and everyone wears a mask.  Here we are doing so and other than an outbreak because of one person who broke the rules, we are so far so good.

Stay safe all and listen to the scientist and physicians.

 

Thanks Jacqui -- it's sad to think that scientists and doctors have somehow become the bad guys in the eyes of too many people here, just because they are trying to save lives.

 

I feel a growing (and ugly) current of self-righteousness among those who seem to think city dwellers somehow deserve their (covid) fate. As someone with an understanding of how infections tend to spread, I wonder if that will change when it starts reaching those more rural, mid-country areas.

 

[rkacruiser]

4 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

Nor should that decision be considered evidence of whether a person cares or doesn't

 

(The above statement is related to whether one wears a mask or not.)

 

I do care.  I don't want to infect others around me if I have the virus.  And, I do wear a mask when I ought to do so.  But:  I have shortness of breath issues.  My latest oxygen saturation test in my blood was at 91%.  Wearing a mask for any length of time is unpleasant for me--difficult at times if the environmental conditions are very warm and humid.  But, I still wear a mask.  

 

Most of us are considerate of those who have obvious physical disabilities.  If one sees someone not wearing a mask, consider that there may be a physiological reason that is not obvious to an observer as to why they are maskless.   

[ontheweb]

2 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

.

 

I feel a growing (and ugly) current of self-righteousness among those who seem to think city dwellers somehow deserve their (covid) fate. As someone with an understanding of how infections tend to spread, I wonder if that will change when it starts reaching those more rural, mid-country areas.

 

We live in the country, but fear what is about to happen as the city people come up here. We have already had to cross the street to keep away from them walking in groups with none wearing masks. But I'm not sure this strategy will work once they come up more en masse.

[broberts]

5 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

...

Most of us are considerate of those who have obvious physical disabilities.  If one sees someone not wearing a mask, consider that there may be a physiological reason that is not obvious to an observer as to why they are maskless.   

 

I've been wondering if face shields might be a better solution for those experiencing difficulties with masks.

[SeaHunt]

5 minutes ago, broberts said:

 

I've been wondering if face shields might be a better solution for those experiencing difficulties with masks.

 

Looks like Guest Services on the Nicko Vision River cruise sailing right now to Dusseldorf agrees with shields LOL

 

 

[npcl]

2 hours ago, broberts said:

 

I've been wondering if face shields might be a better solution for those experiencing difficulties with masks.

 

According to Dr. Frank Esper, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at Cleveland Clinic Children's Center

 

Masks protect others around you from germs you are carrying. Face shields do the opposite, protecting you from being infected by the people around you.

 

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-shields-masks-covid-.html

[JanDom]

In Germany we have to sights :
In the beginning we were told that mask won‘t help anybody.
After Germany bought tons of masks and some company’s changed there productions and don‘t sell sports wear anymore because they sell masks...

One part of the „experts“ say we have to wear them when go shopping, when using buses and trains and when together nearer them 1,5 m (sorry I don’t know how many foot this is).
This is what most parts of Germany now made to law and we have to do this...

We live near an internal border in Germany - at home it is allowed to meet with another family and we have to wear masks as described... when we travel 30 minutes : you are allowed to meet with 10 people - doesn’t matter how many familys... and you only have to wear masks in buses ...

The other part of the „experts“ say : masks will be bacteria and viruses distributor, because you wear the mask, put it away and wear it again, then touching it and so on and so on.


We can say : we only wear the mask if we have to but don’t support that and we life our life as we did before. We don’t change anything in our company and in our behavior... and most of Friends and neighbours and Family do this also.
In my opinion „older“ or people with illness should be more carefully, not only because of COVID 19, but also of other illness ...

We hope we can go on a cruise in December but won’t go if we have to wear masks.
Otherwise we want to support crew to keep their jobs.

Greets from Germany


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[RuthC]

4 hours ago, JanDom said:

In my opinion „older“ or people with illness should be more carefully, not only because of COVID 19, but also of other illness ...

Many older people, and those who are otherwise compromised, ARE careful about not going out unless it is essential. Many of us have essentially become prisoners in our own homes. That's no kind of life in the long run. 

However, we still must get out for essential services. We still need groceries, and not all of us have someone to do that for them. We have to pick up prescriptions, see our doctors, and run a few other essential errands. 
It would be nice if everyone cooperated in keeping us as well as possible when we do need to go out. They can, by wearing a mask over their nose and mouth.

It isn't that hard to be considerate.