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Carnival to Dump Six Ships


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7 hours ago, Captain_Morgan said:


Golden Princess was planned to go to P&O Oz before the world went to hell, and rumour is that Star Princess will also be on its way time TBD.  
 

If Oceana was pencilled in to depart once the next new build came online, I wonder if they don’t see an option to expedite that idea even though I’m of the mind that the Corp. shifts the plans for the next monster new build to another brand if not delaying it further due to lack of revenue in the near term.  

Why do you think P&O will fare worse in restarting after covid than the other Carnival lines.?

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47 minutes ago, Manx buoy said:

My money is on Oceana going. It doesn’t look like any of them will be going in CMVs direction though all ships impounded this morning by the MCA due to crew welfare concerns and apparently an emergency loan deal fell through yesterday

 

Lets put another spin on this. P&O is currently a slightly confused brand offering both the family friendly and adults only propositions. If CMV is in a hole as appears, and given that P&O do still have a loyal smaller ship adults-only following, the acquisition of CMV would seem a sensible option. You could then have two distinct offering, either under the P&O brand or using the CMV/another brand for the smaller ship cruises.

 

Advantages for Carnival would be acquisition of market share without significant extra cost. Ability to serve additional UK homeports, a number of existing ships are ex-Carnival corp anyhow. Loose a couple of the smallest ships, add the three P&O small ships and you end up with 6 small cruise ships offering a collection of itineraries while P&O 'mainstream' offer 5 big ships focused on the family market.

 

Before anyone asks, yes Carnival Corp would have the money and would be able to shift all shore-side operations to the HQ in Southampton saving cost post acquisition.

Edited by molecrochip
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11 minutes ago, Adawn47 said:

P&O Gala 2 ?? Have I missed a P&O Gala ship somewhere? 

Avril 

Its Iona's sister due to launch in 2022. Name was due to be announced in March 2020 and on sale this month however Coronavirus has delayed the announcements. Steel cutting on Gala 2 was due to start shortly after the handover of Iona and she was due for delivery in spring 2022.

 

Iona was originally Project Gala. In the same way that the new Cunard ship is Project Halifax. Iona's cruises a labelled with a G, expect Cunard's new ship to use an H.

Edited by molecrochip
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50 minutes ago, Manx buoy said:

My money is on Oceana going. It doesn’t look like any of them will be going in CMVs direction though all ships impounded this morning by the MCA due to crew welfare concerns and apparently an emergency loan deal fell through yesterday

As Aurora and Oceana are of almost exactly the same age with only a few months between them, and carry roughly the same number of passengers, the decision as to which should go if any may well be decided on operating costs and on which ship is perceived as being more attractive to the passengers P&O are hoping to attract in the future. I cannot comment on the former - both ships have a passenger/crew ratio of 2.2 so in probably comes down to fuel efficiency, a subject on which I am not qualified to comment. But as regards the latter, whilst Aurora has undoubtedly a special place in the hearts of many P&O stalwarts I cannot help thinking that to the new target market she may appear old fashioned, and that Oceana may be perceived as being more modern. The jury is out!

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19 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

 

Lets put another spin on this. P&O is currently a slightly confused brand offering both the family friendly and adults only propositions. If CMV is in a hole as appears, and given that P&O do still have a loyal smaller ship adults-only following, the acquisition of CMV would seem a sensible option. You could then have two distinct offering, either under the P&O brand or using the CMV/another brand for the smaller ship cruises.

 

Advantages for Carnival would be acquisition of market share without significant extra cost. Ability to serve additional UK homeports, a number of existing ships are ex-Carnival corp anyhow. Loose a couple of the smallest ships, add the three P&O small ships and you end up with 6 small cruise ships offering a collection of itineraries while P&O 'mainstream' offer 5 big ships focused on the family market.

 

Before anyone asks, yes Carnival Corp would have the money and would be able to shift all shore-side operations to the HQ in Southampton saving cost post acquisition.

If P&O acquired CMV, they could scrap all but their newest 2 ships and rebrand. How about ,say, 🤔 Ocean village ??.

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10 minutes ago, Denarius said:

As Aurora and Oceana are of almost exactly the same age with only a few months between them, and carry roughly the same number of passengers, the decision as to which should go if any may well be decided on operating costs and on which ship is perceived as being more attractive to the passengers P&O are hoping to attract in the future. I cannot comment on the former - both ships have a passenger/crew ratio of 2.2 so in probably comes down to fuel efficiency, a subject on which I am not qualified to comment. But as regards the latter, whilst Aurora has undoubtedly a special place in the hearts of many P&O stalwarts I cannot help thinking that to the new target market she may appear old fashioned, and that Oceana may be perceived as being more modern. The jury is out!

I think if it was a straight choice between Oceana and Aurora going then I would think Oceana would be the favourite to go as Aurora was built and designed for the British market where Oceana wasnt. She was built for American market for short 7 day cruises to the Caribbean that is why she has small wardrobe space. She was also redesigned when P&O took her on as she used to have a massive Casino especially built for Americans. On a personal note if there were 2 ships going I would prefer Oceana and Arcadia to go as I have a cruise on Arcadia for next August which I dont really want to do but think Aurora would be more favourite because being older.

Edited by majortom10
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16 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

 

Lets put another spin on this. P&O is currently a slightly confused brand offering both the family friendly and adults only propositions. If CMV is in a hole as appears, and given that P&O do still have a loyal smaller ship adults-only following, the acquisition of CMV would seem a sensible option. You could then have two distinct offering, either under the P&O brand or using the CMV/another brand for the smaller ship cruises.

 

Advantages for Carnival would be acquisition of market share without significant extra cost. Ability to serve additional UK homeports, a number of existing ships are ex-Carnival corp anyhow. Loose a couple of the smallest ships, add the three P&O small ships and you end up with 6 small cruise ships offering a collection of itineraries while P&O 'mainstream' offer 5 big ships focused on the family market.

 

Before anyone asks, yes Carnival Corp would have the money and would be able to shift all shore-side operations to the HQ in Southampton saving cost post acquisition.

That's a very interesting suggestion and if I may so, probably better than a wild guess, thank you for sharing your thoughts 🙂

 

Conscious not to deviate from Carnival Corp. but I would imagine that, in circumstances where CMV were to collapse or continue with severe difficulty, Fred Olsen (and similar) may also be interested, should they have sufficient liquidity. 

 

I would imagine that Fred Olsen and/or a couple of others perhaps would have an interest in preventing P&O from easily (and relatively cheaply) resolving it's brand confusion issue in the British market, which could intensify in certain circumstances where smaller ships continue to leave her fleet and narrow the remaining choice for the adults only traditional cruising market.  Clearly when push comes to shove, Carnival Corp has more financial clout though.

 

Or, alternatively, the likes of Fred Olsen may go for the smaller ships which are too small for Carnival but can be refurbished - reference your earlier comment, so the CMV fleet becomes "shared" in that way.

 

Haven't a clue what, if anything, the Competition and Markets Authority would have to say about such a plan, but always interesting to put different spins on things.

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Not sure if P&O would be interested in CMV as a whole company unless she could cherry pick certain aspects of the company and some ships. Marco Polo is 56yrs old and must be expensive to maintain and run, so they could either cherry pick parts of CMV or buy the whole company if advantageous price and sell on some of the ships either for scrap or other companies.

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3 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

On a personal note if there were 2 ships going I would prefer Oceana and Arcadia to go as I have a cruise on Arcadia for next August which I dont really want to do but think Aurora would be more favourite because being older.

From what we have read so far, it seems unlikely that more than one (if any) will leave the fleet.

 

All I can say is that having spoken to quite a few passengers on board P&O, as one does in conversation, you certainly pick up the "big ship" objection, quite frequently.  Anecdotal stuff.

 

When it comes round to, which of the smaller ships has the strongest connection with passengers, I rarely hear Oceana mentioned as number one preference [awaits the scorn of the Oceana fan club]. 

 

Essentially, she is mid sized, liked and loved by some but for others is seen to lack some of the 'connection' of Aurora/Arcadia and from Carnival perspective the financial return available from an Azura / Ventura etc.

 

I'd prefer them all to be kept in the fleet but I could see why Oceana would be construed as the "odd one out" if the plans to decommission here were accelerated arising from the plan around Gala 2.

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1 hour ago, terrierjohn said:

Why do you think P&O will fare worse in restarting after covid than the other Carnival lines.?

 

I don't think P&O will fare worse in restarting, but I do think to coin an American term they are "swinging for the fences" with Iona given the sheer size and fact that they stopped at 1 x Royal Class (Britannia) when they could have easily continued with that model for at least one more like Ventura & Azura.

Now they're hoping that they can fill 5000+ passengers on a ship for 7 day runs around Norway and the Canaries and somehow that is going to hold the attention of everyone enough to repeat the effort in a couple years' time?

 

It's no secret that P&O are desperately trying to attract a younger crowd, which is great for them but not if they do so at the expense of alienating their loyal customer base, which as we know has always been in a more mature demographic.

Considering the relatively small market in the UK as compared to North America, the number of ships sailing in/out of the UK is quite staggering, especially when you consider that cruising to somewhere warm is most people's first choice followed by somewhere they don't have to fly to; both of which seemingly all UK based lines are catering to.

 

If nothing else, this pandemic has surely laid bare a lot of things including but not limited to who still has expendable income and who does not, in both the long and near term and i think its pretty obvious which end of the demographic scale will be able to afford holidays and which will not.

 

Edited by Captain_Morgan
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9 minutes ago, No pager thank you said:

Haven't a clue what, if anything, the Competition and Markets Authority would have to say about such a plan, but always interesting to put different spins on things.

 

The CMA take a different approach to a company purchasing a 'distressed' competitor than they do when two successful healthy companies undertake a transaction.

 

Its also worth noting that Royal Caribbean, Norwegian, Saga, Thomson (Marella), MSC and Fred all serve the UK market to different degrees. Its unlikely that the acquisition would be seen as abstracting custom from the other brands, or creating a market monopoly over the offering.

 

I do agree that Fred may be interested at the lower end.

 

Finally, if the adults-only offering continued to utilise other homeports in the UK, that would be suitable mitigation even if the CMA did have a dig.

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4 minutes ago, Captain_Morgan said:

 

I don't think P&O will fare worse in restarting, but I do think to coin an American term they are "swinging for the fences" with Iona given the sheer size and fact that they stopped at 1 x Royal Class (Britannia) when they could have easily continued with that model for at least one more like Ventura & Azura.

Now they're hoping that they can fill 5000+ passengers on a ship for 7 day runs around Norway and the Canaries and somehow that is going to hold the attention of everyone enough to repeat the effort in a couple years' time?

 

A few points here, originally, P&O would have had a second Royal Class ship. The last 3 were not yet designated for Princess at the point they were confirmed. I believe that the new ship would have been last year. Princess were originally due to get Iona with Gala 2 going to P&O with then the expectation of a following on order if P&O grew quick enough.

 

Along the way, it was decided that P&O's market was not growing quick enough for a second Royal class ship in 2019. It was also decided that given both Iona and Gala 2 to P&O would make more sense.  Hence why Princess are not getting any Excellence class ships.

 

Things change... originally there was the expectation that Azura would do a world cruise in 2021. She was even booked in at certain points in Oz/Asia. Instead, she is now being designated a sunshine ship so will sail from Malta/Barbados. Gala 2 is also not due to homeport in the UK after its initial entry to service. I'm therefore expecting Gala 2 to pick up Dubai/canary islands 7 day-fly cruise. Families seem to prefer a fly-cruise than spending two days each way with worse weather as you head around the channel and Biscay.

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17 minutes ago, Captain_Morgan said:

If nothing else, this pandemic has surely laid bare a lot of things including but not limited to who still has expendable income and who does not, in both the short and near term and i think its pretty obvious which end of the demographic scale will be able to afford holidays and which will not.

Interestingly I think you imply that the older clientel will have the funds whilst the younger working age won't.

 

A lot of working age families have found that, with no childcare fees, no extra school uniforms, trips, working from home meaning no commuting costs or bought lunches and with less opportunity to buy takeaways/cinema trips/football matches etc. etc. they are actually better off. Look at the NHS/Care/supermarket staff working overtime but with nothing to spend their extra cash on.

 

Yes, I agree that those in the creative or hospitality & leisure sectors have been hit hard, but they are not the ones who typically buy cruise holidays.

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2 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

 

A few points here, originally, P&O would have had a second Royal Class ship. The last 3 were not yet designated for Princess at the point they were confirmed. I believe that the new ship would have been last year. Princess were originally due to get Iona with Gala 2 going to P&O with then the expectation of a following on order if P&O grew quick enough.

 

Along the way, it was decided that P&O's market was not growing quick enough for a second Royal class ship in 2019. It was also decided that given both Iona and Gala 2 to P&O would make more sense.  Hence why Princess are not getting any Excellence class ships.

 

Things change... originally there was the expectation that Azura would do a world cruise in 2021. She was even booked in at certain points in Oz/Asia. Instead, she is now being designated a sunshine ship so will sail from Malta/Barbados. Gala 2 is also not due to homeport in the UK after its initial entry to service. I'm therefore expecting Gala 2 to pick up Dubai/canary islands 7 day-fly cruise. Families seem to prefer a fly-cruise than spending two days each way with worse weather as you head around the channel and Biscay.

 

Ironic to think that because P&O's market wasn't growing fast enough that instead of getting a 3400 passenger ship they get a 5000 passenger ship?!?  Surely it would have made more sense to delay the introduction of a second Royal class ship for P&O until 2020, send what we now know to be Iona to Aida or Costa given they've already got one of those class and continue to monitor the trends.

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15 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

I'm therefore expecting Gala 2 to pick up Dubai/canary islands 7 day-fly cruise. Families seem to prefer a fly-cruise than spending two days each way with worse weather as you head around the channel and Biscay.

The logistics of flying 5000 pax every week, on a single day would surely be impossible.

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1 hour ago, molecrochip said:

Its Iona's sister due to launch in 2022. Name was due to be announced in March 2020 and on sale this month however Coronavirus has delayed the announcements. Steel cutting on Gala 2 was due to start shortly after the handover of Iona and she was due for delivery in spring 2022.

 

Iona was originally Project Gala. In the same way that the new Cunard ship is Project Halifax. Iona's cruises a labelled with a G, expect Cunard's new ship to use an H.

Thanks for explanation. I was beginning to feel like Rip Van Winkle, and I was sure I'd only be asleep for 7 hours 

Avril 

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21 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Interestingly I think you imply that the older clientel will have the funds whilst the younger working age won't.

 

A lot of working age families have found that, with no childcare fees, no extra school uniforms, trips, working from home meaning no commuting costs or bought lunches and with less opportunity to buy takeaways/cinema trips/football matches etc. etc. they are actually better off. Look at the NHS/Care/supermarket staff working overtime but with nothing to spend their extra cash on.

 

Yes, I agree that those in the creative or hospitality & leisure sectors have been hit hard, but they are not the ones who typically buy cruise holidays.

When people have to return to work , or not get paid , they may not have as much spare cash as you believe they have now.

Edited by zap99
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10 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Interestingly I think you imply that the older clientel will have the funds whilst the younger working age won't.

 

A lot of working age families have found that, with no childcare fees, no extra school uniforms, trips, working from home meaning no commuting costs or bought lunches and with less opportunity to buy takeaways/cinema trips/football matches etc. etc. they are actually better off. Look at the NHS/Care/supermarket staff working overtime but with nothing to spend their extra cash on.

 

Yes, I agree that those in the creative or hospitality & leisure sectors have been hit hard, but they are not the ones who typically buy cruise holidays.

 

What i'm saying is that the older clientele are more likely to have expendable income due to the fact that they've not had the same employment concerns as many working families.  Sure many have taken advantage of the gov't furlough program which is wonderful but that's not a bottomless pit of never-ending income and when you consider that as it stands the expectation is for the furlough program to possibly come to a conclusion at the end of October so what happens then?  

 

I just think its too much of an American driven mentality for a UK market to dispose of smaller ships in favor of monsters which won't be filled to capacity for a very long time, especially in the current climate of social distancing and the like.

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I agree.
 
I wonder if some people thought that they were being savvy by booking cruises that they thought wouldn't go, or had rose tinted glasses on etc, because they thought that they would eventually get a recurring 25% bonus by doing so?
 
Remember the story about the $20 a day cruise on Carnival in August (as an example)...
 
Either that or people got bored in lockdown and booking a holiday optimistically, helped cheer them up[emoji41]
 
Strange customer behaviour though on the face of it?
But they have booked cruises for summer 2021. surely by then by the virus would have been controlled
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1 hour ago, jeanlyon said:

If Aurora goes, then that would be it for us.  No more cruising, unless there is something special with Fred O.

Absolutely agree with you. When the small ships leave , then unfortunately so do we.

Avril  

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1 hour ago, molecrochip said:

 

Lets put another spin on this. P&O is currently a slightly confused brand offering both the family friendly and adults only propositions. If CMV is in a hole as appears, and given that P&O do still have a loyal smaller ship adults-only following, the acquisition of CMV would seem a sensible option. You could then have two distinct offering, either under the P&O brand or using the CMV/another brand for the smaller ship cruises.

 

Advantages for Carnival would be acquisition of market share without significant extra cost. Ability to serve additional UK homeports, a number of existing ships are ex-Carnival corp anyhow. Loose a couple of the smallest ships, add the three P&O small ships and you end up with 6 small cruise ships offering a collection of itineraries while P&O 'mainstream' offer 5 big ships focused on the family market.

 

Before anyone asks, yes Carnival Corp would have the money and would be able to shift all shore-side operations to the HQ in Southampton saving cost post acquisition.

A brilliant idea if it were feasible, but those of us of a "certain age" or who love the ambience of the smaller adult only ships are unfortunately seen as insignificant in the grander scheme of things. 

Avril 

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1 hour ago, molecrochip said:

 

Lets put another spin on this. P&O is currently a slightly confused brand offering both the family friendly and adults only propositions. If CMV is in a hole as appears, and given that P&O do still have a loyal smaller ship adults-only following, the acquisition of CMV would seem a sensible option. You could then have two distinct offering, either under the P&O brand or using the CMV/another brand for the smaller ship cruises.

 

Advantages for Carnival would be acquisition of market share without significant extra cost. Ability to serve additional UK homeports, a number of existing ships are ex-Carnival corp anyhow. Loose a couple of the smallest ships, add the three P&O small ships and you end up with 6 small cruise ships offering a collection of itineraries while P&O 'mainstream' offer 5 big ships focused on the family market.

 

Before anyone asks, yes Carnival Corp would have the money and would be able to shift all shore-side operations to the HQ in Southampton saving cost post acquisition.

Why would Carnival want to buy CMV when they are currently considering selling off 6 of their own ships. What might be more sensible is to try to recover some of the ships they sold to CMV and where they are still awaiting  final payment.

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