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Cruise industry announces US sailing suspension extended until Sept. 15

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33 minutes ago, embarkation75 said:

 

If Carnival or NCL/RCL aren't cruising in some manner by Nov/Dec of this year, you won't need to worry about anything in Jan/Feb of 2021 or for that matter several years later as the cruise industry as we know it will collapse under bankruptcy. Good luck getting a future cruise when they've used most of their ships as collateral for loans they won't be able to pay! I don't have a crystal ball for predicting where the covid-19 trends head, but if CCL/NCL/RCL are not back in some manner by late 2020, the number of options for ships/ports/destinations/prices in future years will  be dramatically different and limited. I can see the industry becoming some combo of a same day booze cruise or a very limited elite "once in a lifetime" trip as the days of taking multiple cruises over a year(s) where you take the grandkids, will be over.

 

That is a bleak outlook.  I had gone so far mentally as thinking reorganization might not be entirely out of the question.  That is why I didn't buy stock when it bottomed.

 

Right now I'm just trying to get over the disappointment of having a September cruise cancelled and wondering if there is a reasonable chance we can sail in October.

 

I'm not in the income group that would ever consider an "elite once in a lifetime cruise". 

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28 minutes ago, Chief93 said:

I hope you're wrong, but I have a sinking feeling you might be right.  If you are, it will devastate the economies of places like Roatan, Cozumel, Grand Turk etc.

 

Perhaps.  There is way more tourist income in Playa del Carmen and Cancun to be had than cruiser income in Coz.  The same is true with Provo and Grace Bay being the high point of tourist income in T&C vs. cruiser income in Grand Turk.

 

Cruising can cease, but when air travel resumes and the high volume income returns from land vacations, these locations will not be "devastated".

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25 minutes ago, bury me at sea said:

 

That is a bleak outlook.  I had gone so far mentally as thinking reorganization might not be entirely out of the question.  That is why I didn't buy stock when it bottomed.

 

Right now I'm just trying to get over the disappointment of having a September cruise cancelled and wondering if there is a reasonable chance we can sail in October.

 

I'm not in the income group that would ever consider an "elite once in a lifetime cruise". 

After 9/11.....on 9/12....I thought the world ended and nothing would ever be the same.  The world didn't end....NYC came back stronger than ever.

 

Covid will end one day too.  Either there will be a vaccine...or some kind of treatment that inhibits the spread or reduces the effects of the virus.  This is 2020.  There are smart people at work.

 

Cruising will be back...not just "booze cruises" or "once in a lifetime" events (count me out for both).

My crystal ball isn't available right now...so I can't give you a date...lol.

 

There may not be a Carnival or an NCL etc...but there will be a market for "normal people who want to sail for a week"....and investors will seize the opportunity.

 

 

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16 hours ago, seaman11 said:

thanks all , very disappointing, however florida covid numbers have tripled.  

Florida was averaging about 700 a day before June 1 reopening! 

We had 17 straight days over 1000 new infections, the last 2 days were 3144, and 4049!

I'm not getting into the arguments of why, more testing, reopening, or protesters, just stating the numbers are going up far higher then we've ever had!

So it's doubtful ports in Florida are going to open up, and welcome out of state passengers any time soon!

 

As far as those mentioning bars in Florida, been seeing news where bars are shutting themselves down because of outbreaks of virus with customers and/or staff!

 

And those mentioning bankruptcies, if Carnival ever went bankrupt,  it would be a chapter 11 reorganization, where they'd survive, and come back with the same name, not much would change! 

Bankruptcy isn't likely for some time as Carnival has approx. 9 billion dollars from loans, secured notes etc. as reported on May 1! 

 

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Bankruptcy is likely if they can't get back to sailing soon. Carnival has approx. 9 billion dollars from loans, secured notes etc. as that has to be paid back.

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3 hours ago, TNcruising02 said:


That would definitely help if they delay boarding.  But if someone boards at 11:00 am, it might be hard for that person to wait until 6:00 pm to get anything to eat.  I suppose they could have some boxed lunch options.

Time to bring back the automat 

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40 minutes ago, MsTabbyKats said:

Cruising will be back...not just "booze cruises" or "once in a lifetime" events (count me out for both).

My crystal ball isn't available right now...so I can't give you a date...lol.

 

There may not be a Carnival or an NCL etc...but there will be a market for "normal people who want to sail for a week"....and investors will seize the opportunity.

 

 

 

We shall see. Nothing lasts forever as I don't disagree that something cruise wise would exist (e.g booze cruise) if bankruptcy occurs but if folks believe that new cruise lines can pop out of nowhere after the current ones collapse with similar itineraries to pre-covid, then I've got got some ocean-side property to sell them in Arizona. That will take years not weeks for which many on this forum might not be around to see. This is why I'm optimistic the current hold on cruising won't last past the end of the year as Carnival for one will just start moving ships to non-US markets to start generating revenue as maybe even cruising out of Mexico becomes a reality.

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

Bankruptcy is likely if they can't get back to sailing soon. Carnival has approx. 9 billion dollars from loans, secured notes etc. as that has to be paid back.

 

I am well aware of the recent loans, secured notes, and the fact that they issued a large amount of new stock.  That's why I didn't rule out a future reorganization.

 

I'm simply hoping to cruise again, to eat with my cruising mates and share our day, to breathe and read and watch the ocean from the deck, and maybe even have a couple of drinks, without a mask.

 

Visions of the good old days dance in my head.

Edited by bury me at sea
typo

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1 hour ago, AmBear said:

Florida was averaging about 700 a day before June 1 reopening! 

We had 17 straight days over 1000 new infections, the last 2 days were 3144, and 4049!

I'm not getting into the arguments of why, more testing, reopening, or protesters, just stating the numbers are going up far higher then we've ever had!

So it's doubtful ports in Florida are going to open up, and welcome out of state passengers any time soon!

 

As far as those mentioning bars in Florida, been seeing news where bars are shutting themselves down because of outbreaks of virus with customers and/or staff!

 

And those mentioning bankruptcies, if Carnival ever went bankrupt,  it would be a chapter 11 reorganization, where they'd survive, and come back with the same name, not much would change! 

Bankruptcy isn't likely for some time as Carnival has approx. 9 billion dollars from loans, secured notes etc. as reported on May 1! 

 

I heard ny may block florida residents from visiting not the other way around.  Though everything else i agree with.  

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We shall see. Nothing lasts forever as I don't disagree that something cruise wise would exist (e.g booze cruise) if bankruptcy occurs but if folks believe that new cruise lines can pop out of nowhere after the current ones collapse with similar itineraries to pre-covid, then I've got got some ocean-side property to sell them in Arizona. That will take years not weeks for which many on this forum might not be around to see. This is why I'm optimistic the current hold on cruising won't last past the end of the year as Carnival for one will just start moving ships to non-US markets to start generating revenue as maybe even cruising out of Mexico becomes a reality.


The cruise lines have raised financing to get them part way into 2021 if cruising stays suspended. It is true that nothing lasts forever but if the current cruise lines go bankrupt the ships will still exist. New owners will obtain the best of the ships and maybe even the brand names for a song and eventually operate them. After cruises could operate again that would only take months. The operative question though is when cruises could operate.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

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1 hour ago, AmBear said:

Florida was averaging about 700 a day before June 1 reopening! 

We had 17 straight days over 1000 new infections, the last 2 days were 3144, and 4049!

I'm not getting into the arguments of why, more testing, reopening, or protesters, just stating the numbers are going up far higher then we've ever had!

So it's doubtful ports in Florida are going to open up, and welcome out of state passengers any time soon!

 

As far as those mentioning bars in Florida, been seeing news where bars are shutting themselves down because of outbreaks of virus with customers and/or staff!

 

And those mentioning bankruptcies, if Carnival ever went bankrupt,  it would be a chapter 11 reorganization, where they'd survive, and come back with the same name, not much would change! 

Bankruptcy isn't likely for some time as Carnival has approx. 9 billion dollars from loans, secured notes etc. as reported on May 1! 

 

 

9 billion isn't money in the bank, it is credit, something very different, if they don't have cash flow they will most certainly need Bankruptcy and re-negotiation of debt to stay in business.

 

Epic inflection point for the leisure/travel industry, when it will end is unknown.  

 

No vaccine anytime soon, economy must restart in some form and virus outbreaks and deaths will surely follow requiring world wide adjustment.

 

I saw someone post a very resigning thought, we'll just come to accept the new norm and chalk up another thing right up there ahead of coronary disease and cancer and just go about our business.     Hmm, maybe masks will become a new social norm, LOL

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45 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

I heard ny may block florida residents from visiting not the other way around.  Though everything else i agree with.  

I also read that! Not surprised since Florida was tough on NY/NJ flying in this spring, and set up road blocks on rt 10 stopping cars with La license plates!

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1 minute ago, chipmaster said:

 

9 billion isn't money in the bank, it is credit, something very different, if they don't have cash flow they will most certainly need Bankruptcy and re-negotiation of debt to stay in business.

 

Epic inflection point for the leisure/travel industry, when it will end is unknown.  

 

No vaccine anytime soon, economy must restart in some form and virus outbreaks and deaths will surely follow requiring world wide adjustment.

 

I saw someone post a very resigning thought, we'll just come to accept the new norm and chalk up another thing right up there ahead of coronary disease and cancer and just go about our business.     Hmm, maybe masks will become a new social norm, LOL

The article I read stated Carnival took it all out in cash, 

and I would imagine they are paying on it since they took it out!

 

 

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1 hour ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

Bankruptcy is likely if they can't get back to sailing soon. Carnival has approx. 9 billion dollars from loans, secured notes etc. as that has to be paid back.

And those mentioning bankruptcies, if Carnival ever went bankrupt,  it would be a chapter 11 reorganization, where they'd survive, and come back with the same name, not much would change! 

Not all debt is paid off in bankruptcy!

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11 minutes ago, AmBear said:

The article I read stated Carnival took it all out in cash, 

and I would imagine they are paying on it since they took it out!

 

 

 

Yeah nothing interesting, they got 9 billion cash and on top of that 9 billion more debt, and now another outgoing cash paymet required... they got to pay eventually or some sucker bond/bank is going to be left with cents on the dollars or some useless boats.

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Florida is indeed seeing a increase since opening up last month . I repeat over 35 days ago . 

the data may also be very good for cruise industry.

the positive cases are going up , hospital are raising slightly and deaths continue to  be very low.

older people aren’t getting it it’s the young !
and they get better. Older people are staying in . 

its deadly to older folk not so much to young .

 

i look to the data deliver new and effective strategies to protect the ones that need it and life goes on for others till vaccine or effective treatment.

 cruising will come back to much money in it  .

in the meantime don’t put sick in nursing homes  ! Deaths will remain low hopefully 

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4 hours ago, AmBear said:

Florida was averaging about 700 a day before June 1 reopening! 

We had 17 straight days over 1000 new infections, the last 2 days were 3144, and 4049!

I'm not getting into the arguments of why, more testing, reopening, or protesters, just stating the numbers are going up far higher then we've ever had!

So it's doubtful ports in Florida are going to open up, and welcome out of state passengers any time soon!

 

As far as those mentioning bars in Florida, been seeing news where bars are shutting themselves down because of outbreaks of virus with customers and/or staff!

 

And those mentioning bankruptcies, if Carnival ever went bankrupt,  it would be a chapter 11 reorganization, where they'd survive, and come back with the same name, not much would change! 

Bankruptcy isn't likely for some time as Carnival has approx. 9 billion dollars from loans, secured notes etc. as reported on May 1! 

 

Hope you are right

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2 hours ago, AmBear said:

And those mentioning bankruptcies, if Carnival ever went bankrupt,  it would be a chapter 11 reorganization, where they'd survive, and come back with the same name, not much would change! 

Not all debt is paid off in bankruptcy!

 

I hope you're right but I wouldn't count on anything close to what was available pre-covid to exist as significantly reduced number of ships/ports are likely in that scenario even under chapter 11.

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My cruise is october 17

It is a replacement for last may. We watch our cruise programs on youtube. I just have to stop eating as i work at home or i will not fit into my cruise clothes. Do they make spanx Hawaiian shirts?

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On 6/19/2020 at 2:34 PM, Chief93 said:

Well that is most unfortunate.  My next cruise is Oct 10 on the Breeze.  One more 30 day extension of cancellations will make it go away.  I really had my heart set on this, was my shiny new DIL's first cruise, plus its doubtful I will live long enough to reschedule for next year.  But, nothing I can do about it.  

 

I'd go camping, but the national forests are closed as well, because, you know, all those wide open spaces are teeming with the virus.

National Parks hotels are open and they just said on the news they won’t be as crowded because foreign visitors aren’t coming 😉

 

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19 hours ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

Bankruptcy is likely if they can't get back to sailing soon. Carnival has approx. 9 billion dollars from loans, secured notes etc. as that has to be paid back.


    Bankruptcy is guaranteed if they return without a solid strategy to

   1) prevent infections and
   2) deal with any that happen.
 

    They've had since March to address the CDC's concerns ... and so far, they've failed.

      
    

 

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On 6/19/2020 at 2:38 PM, jean87510 said:

 

Grand canyon is open if you haven't been there. We are researching it now just in case...and we will not be wearing masks!

 

 

20200621-182652.jpg

 

😷

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16 minutes ago, ObstructedView2 said:

 

20200621-182652.jpg

 

😷

Best thing we have ever seen in the world

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7 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:


    Bankruptcy is guaranteed if they return without a solid strategy to

   1) prevent infections and
   2) deal with any that happen.
 

    They've had since March to address the CDC's concerns ... and so far, they've failed.

      
    

 

Welcome back!  More joy.

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