Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[TeeRick]

On 1/29/2021 at 3:46 PM, markeb said:

 

I'm going to assume, dangerously, that since the WHO declared the pandemic, they'd declare it over. I'm not seeing anything on WHO's web page yet on proposed criteria for declaring an end. There's an interesting paper on the process to declare the last Ebola outbreak over. And some articles on H1N1 that might provide some ideas.

 

This may prove much more like measles than those examples, though. H1N1 was global but kind of went away. Ebola has always been at least somewhat localized, so those have pretty much been classed as outbreaks. With Ebola, the criteria was pretty much an end of transmission, and I'm not sure that's going to be a realistic expectation here. SARS-CoV-2 is somewhat likely to become endemic and be with us for a long time at a much lower prevalence.

 

What I would sort of expect to see is as countries and regions move to a baseline prevalence, you'll go from it's epidemic everywhere to it's epidemic regionally to the prevalence is down regionally. In theory, once you're dealing with regional outbreaks/epidemics, you no longer have a pandemic. And at that time, the WHO would declare the pandemic over, but there could still be epidemic transmission on a local/regional level.

 

Of course, we've not really done this in the modern era. Certainly we've had emerging infectious diseases, but not with the type of global spread we've seen in the last 12 months or so. (Well, HIV, obviously, but there's a lot of politics on the use of the term pandemic for HIV...)

So to follow up here again...  When is the Pandemic actually over??

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/02/how-know-when-pandemic-over/618122/

[mimbecky]

20 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Thank you.  We pre-registered the next day Jan 14.  Hopefully soon for us too!

 

Good luck!  My brother in law in Pittsburgh was finally able to get one through Giant Eagle.  My sister in law in her 50's also managed at same time because of her BMI.  That surprised me but she told me even smokers can get it now.  I say go get a pack and smoke one....you wouldn't be lying.

M

[TeeRick]

8 minutes ago, mimbecky said:

 

Good luck!  My brother in law in Pittsburgh was finally able to get one through Giant Eagle.  My sister in law in her 50's also managed at same time because of her BMI.  That surprised me but she told me even smokers can get it now.  I say go get a pack and smoke one....you wouldn't be lying.

M

I will smoke and eat a dozen donuts at the same time.  I should qualify.  

[TeeRick]

Really good news on the complete lack of an Influenza season in the US and elsewhere.  Almost no cases.  And back in Sept we were being warned about the double whammy of Influenza and Covid surging at the same time this winter.  Of course all of the social distancing and masks has been a huge factor.  But the usual Flu hospitalizations and deaths are negligible.  Lowest since the CDC started tracking it years ago.  This is a great news story for our overworked health care system.

 

https://apnews.com/article/flu-has-disappeared-us-pandemic-2145d999319b53d8a32a829a324f398d

[markeb]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

So to follow up here again...  When is the Pandemic actually over??

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/02/how-know-when-pandemic-over/618122/

 

Interesting. Not sure I would have thought that low, but I understand the benchmark they're using. 

 

Although, the article is when is the pandemic over, and the metrics are when is the US epidemic over...

[Arizona Wildcat]

On 2/26/2021 at 9:06 AM, cangelmd said:

Major news outlets are reporting a possible plateauing of cases,?beginning of the next surge?

In our state data I think it is too early to tell - the unusually bad weather last week I think has skewed the data for that week and this week - I bet since the cold was so widespread that it affected national data as well. The decline during the cold wasn’t as large as reported. In Alabama early this week there was a big one day jump up then back down - my guess is that it was weather related.

Think about it.  About 1/3 of adults have been diagnosed with COVID.  Somewhere in the 12%+ area vaccinated - understand there is some overlap.  Lots of others had COVID and were never diagnosed; so makes sense cases in the US should be dropping.

DW reminds me daily numbers mean little as put into totals when data forwarded.  Deaths in AZ often take 60 days to get to health department as funeral homes process in bunches.

[Arizona Wildcat]

21 hours ago, BOLOCRUISE said:

We don't get flu shots and we won't get the COVID vaccine.  We have traveled by airplane four times during the "pandemic", including internationally.  The protocols by airlines, all-inclusive resorts and condo rentals are fantastic.  None of these entities have ever been so clean and sanitized.  The fact that cruise ships are not sailing is quite ridiculous, with all of the cleaning, sanitizing, and distancing protocols available.  I have never felt so safe from contaminants on airplanes and in resorts/lodging as I do now. 

There are some things one cannot cure.  Am glad you feel safe in planes and resorts.  Wish others could feel the same about the possibility of you giving others COVID.

FWIW - have a driving trip with others planned in late September.  2 motels notified me each member in our group will be required to show proof of vaccination or a recent negative COVID test.  Major airlines are finalizing plans for a COVID pass with the FAA and CDC that if approved will be required to fly.  Cruiselines and many countries are requiring the same as the airlines for entry.

The refusal to be vaccinated will likely make your travel choices much smaller.

[yorky]

22 hours ago, BOLOCRUISE said:

We don't get flu shots and we won't get the COVID vaccine.  We have traveled by airplane four times during the "pandemic", including internationally.  The protocols by airlines, all-inclusive resorts and condo rentals are fantastic.  None of these entities have ever been so clean and sanitized.  The fact that cruise ships are not sailing is quite ridiculous, with all of the cleaning, sanitizing, and distancing protocols available.  I have never felt so safe from contaminants on airplanes and in resorts/lodging as I do now. 

I have to say that personally I would rather we are not put at further risk by those refusing to take the vaccine, we feel everyone has a social responsibility not to put others at risk and feel if anyone refuses they should not be allowed anywhere near a cruise ship which is an enclosed environment. We will be on an inside cabin on our next cruise and don’t want to have to isolate because of the decision of others. Obviously you are not going to see it that way but for us the tighter the cruise and airlines are in keeping us safe the better.

[4774Papa]

11 minutes ago, yorky said:

I have to say that personally I would rather we are not put at further risk by those refusing to take the vaccine, we feel everyone has a social responsibility not to put others at risk and feel if anyone refuses they should not be allowed anywhere near a cruise ship which is an enclosed environment. We will be on an inside cabin on our next cruise and don’t want to have to isolate because of the decision of others. Obviously you are not going to see it that way but for us the tighter the cruise and airlines are in keeping us safe the better.

It seems to me that it makes a lot of sense for the cruise lines to mandate a vaccine.  Based on the vaccination rates and projected opening of cruising, there should be a majority of American vaccinated.  I would venture that most older persons (a lot of retired cruisers) will get the vaccine.

 

The one big issue would be for children under 18 years, unless there is a vaccine for them, would they be allowed to cruise?  

[zook50]

17 minutes ago, yorky said:

I have to say that personally I would rather we are not put at further risk by those refusing to take the vaccine, we feel everyone has a social responsibility not to put others at risk and feel if anyone refuses they should not be allowed anywhere near a cruise ship which is an enclosed environment. We will be on an inside cabin on our next cruise and don’t want to have to isolate because of the decision of others. Obviously you are not going to see it that way but for us the tighter the cruise and airlines are in keeping us safe the better.

I agree wholeheartedly and only hope that a vaccine passport is absolutely required for any cruise, flight, border, etc.  Vaccination protects us and others.  It is a responsibility.

[Charles4515]

2 minutes ago, 4774Papa said:

It seems to me that it makes a lot of sense for the cruise lines to mandate a vaccine.  Based on the vaccination rates and projected opening of cruising, there should be a majority of American vaccinated.  I would venture that most older persons (a lot of retired cruisers) will get the vaccine.

 

The one big issue would be for children under 18 years, unless there is a vaccine for them, would they be allowed to cruise?  

 

Trials are underway for 12 and over for both Moderna and Pfizer. Possibly available this summer. Really can't answer your question as despite our long discussion and speculation we don't know yet if vaccines will be required for anyone on the mainstream cruise lines.

[Denny01]

22 hours ago, BOLOCRUISE said:

We don't get flu shots and we won't get the COVID vaccine.  We have traveled by airplane four times during the "pandemic", including internationally.  The protocols by airlines, all-inclusive resorts and condo rentals are fantastic.  None of these entities have ever been so clean and sanitized.  The fact that cruise ships are not sailing is quite ridiculous, with all of the cleaning, sanitizing, and distancing protocols available.  I have never felt so safe from contaminants on airplanes and in resorts/lodging as I do now. 

This is your choice, but would you please make sure when you join a Roll Call that you let all on that cruise know you are refusing to be vaccinated. That way, they can make a choice also. 

 

Den

[zook50]

11 minutes ago, Denny01 said:

This is your choice, but would you please make sure when you join a Roll Call that you let all on that cruise know you are refusing to be vaccinated. That way, they can make a choice also. 

 

Den

Excellent point.  We all have the right to make choices, especially when it comes to our own health and safety.

 

Let's just hope that a vaccine passport becomes the norm.  No passport, no travel.

[mayleeman]

1 hour ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Think about it.  About 1/3 of adults have been diagnosed with COVID....Lots of others had COVID and were never diagnosed....

 

The figures I see are still less than 30,000,000 Americans diagnosed. I think your 1/3  estimate may be counting both the reported and the undiagnosed-but-suspected group. Even with that large a total, I would not be too confident in counting on any major reduction in cases when that estimate still leaves twice as many who will require vax to acquire immunity, especially with excluding children from the calculation. 

 

And with so many being unwilling to get vaccinated to help protect everyone, I am reluctantly convinced we will see tens of millions of cases occurring over the next 9 months to a year.

[LGW59]

1 hour ago, Denny01 said:

This is your choice, but would you please make sure when you join a Roll Call that you let all on that cruise know you are refusing to be vaccinated. That way, they can make a choice also. 

 

Den

And wear a sign that says we do not get vaccines, this will allow us to social distance from you at all times

[hcat]

3 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

There are some things one cannot cure.  Am glad you feel safe in planes and resorts.  Wish others could feel the same about the possibility of you giving others COVID.

FWIW - have a driving trip with others planned in late September.  2 motels notified me each member in our group will be required to show proof of vaccination or a recent negative COVID test.  Major airlines are finalizing plans for a COVID pass with the FAA and CDC that if approved will be required to fly.  Cruiselines and many countries are requiring the same as the airlines for entry.

The refusal to be vaccinated will likely make your travel choices much smaller.

What  motel chains are those. Dtr  and family  are invited to 2 out of state weddings.. they planned to drive  but maybe not if they have to test anyhow .  Better off staying home...

 

.Someone is making a bundle on all this testing!  Wish we knew who...???

[hcat]

5 hours ago, TeeRick said:

So to follow up here again...  When is the Pandemic actually over??

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/02/how-know-when-pandemic-over/618122/

Dr Fauci says we will likely be wearing masks into 2022..Uncle Joe says he can't honestly say when.. so maybe never???

 

[LGW59]

Just now, hcat said:

Dr Fauci says we will likely be wearing masks into 2022..Uncle Joe says he can't honestly say when.. so maybe never???

 

In Dr Fauci I trust and I love my uncle Joe!

[Arizona Wildcat]

26 minutes ago, hcat said:

What  motel chains are those. Dtr  and family  are invited to 2 out of state weddings.. they planned to drive  but maybe not if they have to test anyhow .  Better off staying home...

 

.Someone is making a bundle on all this testing!  Wish we knew who...???

They are not chains but rather mom and pop independent motels in VERY small towns.  Their reasoning was we are booking ALL their rooms for 1 night.  Having all the tour members get vaccinated - average age is 74 - by September not difficult.

I would not travel today without being vaccinated.  But that is a personal decision given my age and DW's health.  

[TeeRick]

2 hours ago, mayleeman said:

 

The figures I see are still less than 30,000,000 Americans diagnosed. I think your 1/3  estimate may be counting both the reported and the undiagnosed-but-suspected group. Even with that large a total, I would not be too confident in counting on any major reduction in cases when that estimate still leaves twice as many who will require vax to acquire immunity, especially with excluding children from the calculation. 

 

And with so many being unwilling to get vaccinated to help protect everyone, I am reluctantly convinced we will see tens of millions of cases occurring over the next 9 months to a year.

But the CDC estimates about 3-4X that number of Covid cases in the US.  The CDC estimate was 83 million cases in Mid- December before the surge was anywhere near over.  So probably well over 100 million cumulative infections to date.   That is probably 1/3 of the adult (18 and over) population.  Then there is the vaccines.  But not sure if they add directly to that total since there will be overlap between infected and vaccinated.  Anyway I agree with the statement of Arizona Wildcat that our case numbers should be trending steeply downward. 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

Edited February 27, 2021 by TeeRick

[TeeRick]

30 minutes ago, hcat said:

Dr Fauci says we will likely be wearing masks into 2022..Uncle Joe says he can't honestly say when.. so maybe never???

 

My scenario.  It will not be All-or-Nothing back to normalcy.

I think it will be in stages:

-Probably it will take most of 2021 to get enough people vaccinated in the US, and to see the virus infection rate drop to a low enough level, and remain there.  Then many restrictions and masks are slowly lifted.  It might be different for different states.  Looking forward to TGiving and XMAS with family this year!  Hopefully!

-If we are cruising in 2022 and the passengers and crew are all vaccinated as a requirement, then I think ships could possibly be mask-free onboard.  

-But the rest of the world will lag the US in vaccinations so international travel in 2022 will likely be with restrictions and masks.  

Cruises on fully-vaccinated ships will have only sanctioned port stops with limited excursions with no-exception mask requirements off the ship.

This might be the case until the world is more vaccine-protected.  Perhaps 2023??

[hcat]

2 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

They are not chains but rather mom and pop independent motels in VERY small towns.  Their reasoning was we are booking ALL their rooms for 1 night.  Having all the tour members get vaccinated - average age is 74 - by September not difficult.

I would not travel today without being vaccinated.  But that is a personal decision given my age and DW's health.  

Thanks for the info . Guess they will check with hotels and motels if needed,

They are too young to be able to get a vaccine in NY  .Maybe next year? 

They did travel safely over xmas but tested, (including  children) before and after  the trip home to NY.  Otherwise it's a longer quarantine.

 

I wish  they would stay home but family pressures often factor in....Sad to say not everyone planning big events  appeciate the risk they ask others to take....a bit selfish in my book,  but of course the invitees can always decline!

[markeb]

The FDA has granted an EUA to the J&J vaccine. That makes three now. This one is a single dose vaccine, with less logistics and storage concerns.

[nocl]

4 hours ago, TeeRick said:

But the CDC estimates about 3-4X that number of Covid cases in the US.  The CDC estimate was 83 million cases in Mid- December before the surge was anywhere near over.  So probably well over 100 million cumulative infections to date.   That is probably 1/3 of the adult (18 and over) population.  Then there is the vaccines.  But not sure if they add directly to that total since there will be overlap between infected and vaccinated.  Anyway I agree with the statement of Arizona Wildcat that our case numbers should be trending steeply downward. 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

However, the infections from the original strain may not (there is data showing that people that had the original infection, now getting the vaccine resistant variants) protect against some of the variants.  With some of those variants active in the US (CA and NY for sure) the previously infected number might not help as much as expected.

[upwarduk]

13 hours ago, zook50 said:

Let's just hope that a vaccine passport becomes the norm.  No passport, no travel.

Here, here.

Just hope our UK government decides that they are required, then hopefully they can rescind the following advice:

 

https://www.express.co.uk/travel/cruise/1402897/cruise-holidays-cruises-2021-fco-travel-advice-when-cruise-ship-will-start