Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[cangelmd]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

Here is a study done by Royal Caribbean Group on one of their mega ships.

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/environmental-health/study-finds-transmission-aerosol-particles-cruise-hvac-system-undetectable

Interesting, some random thoughts -

The PhD mentioned (yay pathology) is from Univ of Nebraska, that's important because they have one of the few high level (Fort Detrick level, I think) biosafety facilities in the country. A lot of very specialized research and knowledge is concentrated at Nebraska.

 

Second, will they develop some testing to do on HVAC of all ships? Will the older ships perform as well?

 

Third, there's a common theme in all the major outbreaks that have so villainized certain activities (not that those activities aren't higher risk, going to a bar is higher risk) - not only were people doing high risk activities, they didn't know a highly contagious virus was out there. In other words, good ventilation is important, but human behavior is even more important, and it is hard or wrong to label some things as unacceptable risk when you are comparing the risk with no knowledge of the need for precautions with the risk after precautions are taken.

 

Of course, there are still a lot of people who don't or won't understand that you need to consider the virus.

[markeb]

7 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

https://www.propublica.org/article/covid-vaccine-supply

 

Now for something a little different. I've always been a planner, whether it's vacations or change control at work. After I had been a lab director for several years, I realized I missed my calling - I should have served some time in the military and become a logistics person, I get real geeky about that kind of stuff and I would be a general or a COO by now. Anyway, I found this article interesting, and Ken, you've been holding out on us, they are making those vials in your back yard!

 

Logistics is always what gets you in trouble. Napoleon was a brilliant strategist and tactician; not so much a logistician, especially during his Russian campaign. Plenty of other examples.

 

What that article also points out are the challenges of scaling up production of all raw materials and components to levels never seen. And doing it with three novel technology candidates.

 

Interestingly, our community no longer picks up glass for recycling, although we can take it to the landfill ourselves. Otherwise, it goes in the landfill. Most glass for recycling was being bought by the I believe the Chinese; when they stopped paying, it became a cost driver rather than a low level profit center...

[cangelmd]

1 minute ago, markeb said:

What that article also points out are the challenges of scaling up production of all raw materials and components to levels never seen. And doing it with three novel technology candidates.

 

 

It's exactly why, back about 6 months ago, we in the lab world, just finally got totally sick of the epidemiologists on TV, from all parties and all persuasions saying over and over "we just need to ramp up testing" "we need to do many more tests in the US". While we were saying "hello, you can't, stop saying that, it's not possible" It wasn't possible for all the reasons outlined in the article. We are just now getting close to the point that it would be feasible for testing.

[Ken the cruiser]

48 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

https://www.propublica.org/article/covid-vaccine-supply

 

Now for something a little different. I've always been a planner, whether it's vacations or change control at work. After I had been a lab director for several years, I realized I missed my calling - I should have served some time in the military and become a logistics person, I get real geeky about that kind of stuff and I would be a general or a COO by now. Anyway, I found this article interesting, and Ken, you've been holding out on us, they are making those vials in your back yard!

That was definitely an interesting "behind the scenes" article. I had recently heard SiO2, an Alabama company, was helping in the effort by producing glass vials, but it was definitely eye-opening to read about the massive team work being orchestrated to make millions of vaccines a reality in just a short amount of time.

 

What was also enlightening to read today was that Merck is going to help their rival, J&J, produce their vaccine.

 

J&J and Merck to partner for COVID vaccine production to boost supply (yahoo.com)

 

But I have to say it sure is nice lately to get up every morning and see continual forward progress to eventually getting back to cruising. I know I'm an optimist, but going on a July cruise is looking better and better every day. 🙃

Edited March 2, 2021 by Ken the cruiser

[deadzone1003]

The only people with excess capacity to produce these new vaccines may be their competitors.  But, it still doesn't solve the problem of getting raw materials or ingredients for these vaccines.  Sort of like getting more cooks to make more omelettes, but you need more cooking ranges, more eggs, more chickens, etc.  Thank god for those anti-vaxxers and people who are hesitant about taking the vaccine else the lines to even sign up for a vaccine will be much, much longer, LOL.

[nocl]

1 minute ago, deadzone1003 said:

The only people with excess capacity to produce these new vaccines may be their competitors.  But, it still doesn't solve the problem of getting raw materials or ingredients for these vaccines.  Sort of like getting more cooks to make more omelettes, but you need more cooking ranges, more eggs, more chickens, etc.  Thank god for those anti-vaxxers and people who are hesitant about taking the vaccine else the lines to even sign up for a vaccine will be much, much longer, LOL.

There are a number of companies that specialize in contract manufacturing (even for the new technologies such as the Moderna vaccine (actually Moderna is using one of them)) that have no products of their own.  Some of them are small scale, used for making clinical trial supplies, for new products. Some are large scale. 

 

They are set up to be very flexible in switching over to a different product and obtaining the appropriate GMP (Good manufacturing Practices) certifications.

[UnorigionalName]

1 hour ago, cangelmd said:

Interesting, some random thoughts -

The PhD mentioned (yay pathology) is from Univ of Nebraska, that's important because they have one of the few high level (Fort Detrick level, I think) biosafety facilities in the country. A lot of very specialized research and knowledge is concentrated at Nebraska.

 

Second, will they develop some testing to do on HVAC of all ships? Will the older ships perform as well?

 

Third, there's a common theme in all the major outbreaks that have so villainized certain activities (not that those activities aren't higher risk, going to a bar is higher risk) - not only were people doing high risk activities, they didn't know a highly contagious virus was out there. In other words, good ventilation is important, but human behavior is even more important, and it is hard or wrong to label some things as unacceptable risk when you are comparing the risk with no knowledge of the need for precautions with the risk after precautions are taken.

 

Of course, there are still a lot of people who don't or won't understand that you need to consider the virus.

 

I don't understand why everyone is perseverating over the HVAC on the ships. 

 

I thought the research like basically a year ago now showed that HVAC sucking up virus particles were not and could not really spread viable virus.

 

The issue with HVAC is the other end.  It blows particles way past the 10 feet they may normally travel.  There's great contact tracing papers from korea showing the effects, and it's really the hvac in an enclosed space blowing around viruses that's the issue, not sucking it up and distributing it somewhere else.

 

But that's basically the entire ship.  A big indoor space with active ventilation blowing virus particles into people's faces.  That's what people should be paranoid about, not it sucking up and blowing it into staterooms or something.

[TeeRick]

2 hours ago, cangelmd said:

https://www.propublica.org/article/covid-vaccine-supply

 

Now for something a little different. I've always been a planner, whether it's vacations or change control at work. After I had been a lab director for several years, I realized I missed my calling - I should have served some time in the military and become a logistics person, I get real geeky about that kind of stuff and I would be a general or a COO by now. Anyway, I found this article interesting, and Ken, you've been holding out on us, they are making those vials in your back yard!

Thank you for the article!  Good information.

[TeeRick]

55 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

I don't understand why everyone is perseverating over the HVAC on the ships. 

 

I thought the research like basically a year ago now showed that HVAC sucking up virus particles were not and could not really spread viable virus.

 

The issue with HVAC is the other end.  It blows particles way past the 10 feet they may normally travel.  There's great contact tracing papers from korea showing the effects, and it's really the hvac in an enclosed space blowing around viruses that's the issue, not sucking it up and distributing it somewhere else.

 

But that's basically the entire ship.  A big indoor space with active ventilation blowing virus particles into people's faces.  That's what people should be paranoid about, not it sucking up and blowing it into staterooms or something.

What you point out is quite true.  Not everybody is well-versed in HVAC technology and viral droplet dynamics.   It continues to be a lingering issue with most of the public and media.  Just like getting infected from touching surfaces.   It keeps coming up.  No matter how much data to the contrary. The CDC has been wishy washy on their communications leaving room for doubt and speculation.  So companies like Royal Caribbean are doing studies to address it with their customer base.  And to provide data to the CDC.

[TeeRick]

1 hour ago, deadzone1003 said:

The only people with excess capacity to produce these new vaccines may be their competitors.  But, it still doesn't solve the problem of getting raw materials or ingredients for these vaccines.  Sort of like getting more cooks to make more omelettes, but you need more cooking ranges, more eggs, more chickens, etc.  Thank god for those anti-vaxxers and people who are hesitant about taking the vaccine else the lines to even sign up for a vaccine will be much, much longer, LOL.

Here is another general scientific article on this.

 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-covid-vaccines-need-absurd-amounts-of-material-and-labor1/

[4774Papa]

3 hours ago, markeb said:

 

Logistics is always what gets you in trouble. Napoleon was a brilliant strategist and tactician; not so much a logistician, especially during his Russian campaign. Plenty of other examples.

 

What that article also points out are the challenges of scaling up production of all raw materials and components to levels never seen. And doing it with three novel technology candidates.

 

Interestingly, our community no longer picks up glass for recycling, although we can take it to the landfill ourselves. Otherwise, it goes in the landfill. Most glass for recycling was being bought by the I believe the Chinese; when they stopped paying, it became a cost driver rather than a low level profit center...

Actually, I have read a lot about Napoleon, who was an artillery man and more of a logistician because of that than most military leaders.

 

On the use of glass, I remember as a kid in the 50s and 60s picking up soda bottles for the two cent return.  People were throw their empty bottles out of their cars.  Then, for whatever reason soda stopped being sold in recyclable bottle.    That wasn't progress.

[lyndarra]

9 hours ago, K.T.B. said:

 

They'll have HEPA filtering when cruising begins again.  LINK

Read it again. There is no blanket claim that all cruise ships will upgrade their systems.

"The Times adds that several large cruise ship lines have announced they will upgrade their HVAC systems with features such as ionization, HEPA filtration, and MERV 13 filters that can reportedly refresh ship cabin air about every five minutes."

and,

"Cruise Ships May Have Varying Results Adding Air Filters" - Verisk, Dec 14, 2020

 

[cangelmd]

4 hours ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

I don't understand why everyone is perseverating over the HVAC on the ships. 

 

I thought the research like basically a year ago now showed that HVAC sucking up virus particles were not and could not really spread viable virus.

 

The issue with HVAC is the other end.  It blows particles way past the 10 feet they may normally travel.  There's great contact tracing papers from korea showing the effects, and it's really the hvac in an enclosed space blowing around viruses that's the issue, not sucking it up and distributing it somewhere else.

 

But that's basically the entire ship.  A big indoor space with active ventilation blowing virus particles into people's faces.  That's what people should be paranoid about, not it sucking up and blowing it into staterooms or something.

Has then been a study simulating people wearing masks under those circumstances? I very much remember the sketches from the Korea epidemiology study showing how the virus spread in a straight line for multiple feet, but didn’t cross the aisle to the desks much closer.

[UnorigionalName]

9 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

Has then been a study simulating people wearing masks under those circumstances? I very much remember the sketches from the Korea epidemiology study showing how the virus spread in a straight line for multiple feet, but didn’t cross the aisle to the desks much closer.

 

IIRC most of the cases are restaurants and bars, maskless. 

[Arizona Wildcat]

6 hours ago, markeb said:

 

Logistics is always what gets you in trouble. Napoleon was a brilliant strategist and tactician; not so much a logistician, especially during his Russian campaign. Plenty of other examples.

 

What that article also points out are the challenges of scaling up production of all raw materials and components to levels never seen. And doing it with three novel technology candidates.

 

Interestingly, our community no longer picks up glass for recycling, although we can take it to the landfill ourselves. Otherwise, it goes in the landfill. Most glass for recycling was being bought by the I believe the Chinese; when they stopped paying, it became a cost driver rather than a low level profit center...

Problems with glass are no buyers unless sorted by color green, brown, clear AND washed.   The sorting and washing cost more than price received.  Sad but true.

[markeb]

1 minute ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Problems with glass are no buyers unless sorted by color green, brown, clear AND washed.   The sorting and washing cost more than price received.  Sad but true.

 

Yeah. When we lived in Germany years ago, you sorted your glass by color. I don't know what our local landfill is doing; they used to just accept comingled glass recycling from the companies picking up trash and recycling. 50 years from now they'll be digging up the landfills for things like glass, but not today!

[SueCitySue]

Are all cruise lines requiring proof of vaccinations?

[Arizona Wildcat]

9 minutes ago, SueCitySue said:

Are all cruise lines requiring proof of vaccinations?

No.  Most cruiselines are not requiring proof of vaccinations.  Again most cruiselines are not cruising.  Many posters expect that vaccinations will be required when cruising resumes. 

[D C]

4 hours ago, lyndarra said:

Read it again. There is no blanket claim that all cruise ships will upgrade their systems.

"The Times adds that several large cruise ship lines have announced they will upgrade their HVAC systems with features such as ionization, HEPA filtration, and MERV 13 filters that can reportedly refresh ship cabin air about every five minutes."

and,

"Cruise Ships May Have Varying Results Adding Air Filters" - Verisk, Dec 14, 2020

 

Require vaccines and any concern about HVAC disappears. 

[D C]

3 hours ago, SueCitySue said:

Are all cruise lines requiring proof of vaccinations?

 

2 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

No.  Most cruiselines are not requiring proof of vaccinations.  Again most cruiselines are not cruising.  Many posters expect that vaccinations will be required when cruising resumes. 

A bit of semantics, but we can't exactly say what cruise lines ARE doing as a blanket statement when very few cruises are happening. 

 

We can speculate on what they will eventually require, and it seems that most people believe that vaccination will be required. 

[Arizona Wildcat]

5 minutes ago, D C said:

 

A bit of semantics, but we can't exactly say what cruise lines ARE doing as a blanket statement when very few cruises are happening. 

 

We can speculate on what they will eventually require, and it seems that most people believe that vaccination will be required. 

Thank you for repeating my post.  All I know is as of today RCI has stated crew will require both quarantine and vaccination.  No mention yet about passengers.  I believe passenger vaccination will be required.  Many others disagree.  Only the Magic 8 Ball knows.

Edited March 3, 2021 by Arizona Wildcat

[deadzone1003]

Right now, only Saga is requiring vaccinations.  MSC is resuming cruising on April 1st, but there is no vaccine requirement as so few people in the EU have been vaccinated.  Saga could do that because the UK is much further along with vaccinations than the EU.  As for the USA, majority of the cruising population should be fully vaccinated by the 1st of July.  Would not be surprised if the CDC requires it as an incentive for people to get vaccinated.

[K.T.B.]

Required or not, and I definitely hope they do require it, I'll be vaccinated.  I'll also wear a mask and social distance as best as possible.  No matter what, I want to cruise again, regardless of the new rules and regulations.  It's not only for our safety, but for the crew members' as well.

[TeeRick]

Here is a  very good general article in the NY Times on what the efficacy numbers really mean for all of the current Covid vaccines.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/03/03/science/vaccine-efficacy-coronavirus.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20210302&instance_id=27670&nl=the-morning&regi_id=121450033&segment_id=52667&te=1&user_id=8259b050a84d722b46d85f64ae857bb0

 

 

[TeeRick]

To extend the amount of available vaccine doses, some countries will give only one vaccine shot to people who already had COVID infections.   It potentially does make some sense if one would be considered immunologically "primed" for Covid antigens after being naturally infected.  Then the one dose of vaccine might be the "boost".  But none of this has been tested.  However I think it would be easy and fast to test in the clinic looking at immune responses.  If you are in a country with a lot of ongoing infections and very little vaccine this is an interesting strategy.

 

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/946533