Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[nocl]

2 hours ago, D C said:

Precisely my point. I said:

"Yet still not a peep from them about anything resembling a revision to cruising. " 

No revision or any suggestion of such, despite the order being ancient in terms of the status of covid. 

What exactly do you consider to be ancient?

 

The conditional sailing order was dated Oct 31, 2020.  At that time the US was running around 82,000 cases per day,  the US is still running about 60,000 cases per day.  When it was signed we were waiting for the vaccines, but were not concerned about variants.  Today we have vaccines and are administering them, but not we have a number of variants that are more infectious and deadly (UK variant) than the original strain, we also have at least one strain that is somewhat resistant to the vaccines in question. We are coming down from a massive infection peak, but a number of states have  dropped  mandates for masking and social distancing in indoor environments (counter to CDC recommendations).

 

So how exactly is the order ancient, seems to be a not too different environment then when it was first put out.

 

Once you see a substantial impact as a result of a substantial percentage of the population getting vaccinated, once you see cases drop significantly from the pre- holiday plateau, once you see signs that cases do not result in community spread it might be considered to be ancient, but today it is pretty current to when it was first put into place.

 

 

[D C]

6 hours ago, nocl said:

What exactly do you consider to be ancient?

 

The conditional sailing order was dated Oct 31, 2020.  At that time the US was running around 82,000 cases per day,  the US is still running about 60,000 cases per day.  When it was signed we were waiting for the vaccines, but were not concerned about variants.  Today we have vaccines and are administering them, but not we have a number of variants that are more infectious and deadly (UK variant) than the original strain, we also have at least one strain that is somewhat resistant to the vaccines in question. We are coming down from a massive infection peak, but a number of states have  dropped  mandates for masking and social distancing in indoor environments (counter to CDC recommendations).

 

So how exactly is the order ancient, seems to be a not too different environment then when it was first put out.

 

Once you see a substantial impact as a result of a substantial percentage of the population getting vaccinated, once you see cases drop significantly from the pre- holiday plateau, once you see signs that cases do not result in community spread it might be considered to be ancient, but today it is pretty current to when it was first put into place.

 

 

On 31-October there were no vaccines approved for use, no vaccines submitted for approval, and no meaningful data on the efficacy of vaccines under development. 

 

We now have 3 vaccines that are effective beyond the wildest expectations of anyone on 31-October, all of which are close to perfect at preventing death and serious disease. 

 

From a time-perspective, we're 1 year into COVID.  The conditional sail order has been in place for over 1/3 of that time.   Vaccines have been available for 3 months, or 2/3 of the life of the conditional sail order.  Roughly 60 million people have received at least one dose in that time, and the US expects to have enough vaccines to inoculate the entire adult population in less than 3 more months.   

 

Once vaccines are available to all who wish to have one, it's reasonable that life would return to normal.  Not a 'new' normal. A real, restriction-free normal.   We're arguably closer to that date than we are to the date on the conditional sail order, which is stuck in a world where vaccines don't exist and there is nothing beyond 'test and isolate' as a strategy.  

 

Ancient history. 

 

 

 

[4774Papa]

10 minutes ago, D C said:

On 31-October there were no vaccines approved for use, no vaccines submitted for approval, and no meaningful data on the efficacy of vaccines under development. 

 

We now have 3 vaccines that are effective beyond the wildest expectations of anyone on 31-October, all of which are close to perfect at preventing death and serious disease. 

 

From a time-perspective, we're 1 year into COVID.  The conditional sail order has been in place for over 1/3 of that time.   Vaccines have been available for 3 months, or 2/3 of the life of the conditional sail order.  Roughly 60 million people have received at least one dose in that time, and the US expects to have enough vaccines to inoculate the entire adult population in less than 3 more months.   

 

Once vaccines are available to all who wish to have one, it's reasonable that life would return to normal.  Not a 'new' normal. A real, restriction-free normal.   We're arguably closer to that date than we are to the date on the conditional sail order, which is stuck in a world where vaccines don't exist and there is nothing beyond 'test and isolate' as a strategy.  

 

Ancient history. 

 

 

 

Well said.

 

 

Vaccines will be what changes World Travel sometime this year.   Some countries are ahead of other.  Israel and the UAE practically have most of their people vaccinated.   The UK and USA look to be there sometime this Summer.

 

Cruising looks to start up in early Summer and will likely require passengers to have vaccines.  Then we can start focusing on where to go and what to see.

[TeeRick]

17 hours ago, cangelmd said:

It is a challenge when you think about it. Is a particular country more damaged economically than medically? If they have done well with simple precautions and reduced international travel, but they really need NGO help that has had to go home, economic development or just a market for their goods - who should they vaccinate first? And, as you said, the scientific implications of the variability are very interesting, and will lead to studies way into the future.

All great points.  The very low amount of severe COVID in young adults and children globally (and even in the US and EU of course)  is clearly telling us something about the virus and our basic immune systems. And of course the high percentage of asymptomatic infections overall.  More than just B Cell and T Cell responses that we already know about.  Once that is truly figured out definitively for this virus that will  be a major medical breakthrough for viral infectious diseases and for vaccine research.  IMO.  We are on the cusp of this I think.  

[TeeRick]

34 minutes ago, D C said:

On 31-October there were no vaccines approved for use, no vaccines submitted for approval, and no meaningful data on the efficacy of vaccines under development. 

 

We now have 3 vaccines that are effective beyond the wildest expectations of anyone on 31-October, all of which are close to perfect at preventing death and serious disease. 

 

From a time-perspective, we're 1 year into COVID.  The conditional sail order has been in place for over 1/3 of that time.   Vaccines have been available for 3 months, or 2/3 of the life of the conditional sail order.  Roughly 60 million people have received at least one dose in that time, and the US expects to have enough vaccines to inoculate the entire adult population in less than 3 more months.   

 

Once vaccines are available to all who wish to have one, it's reasonable that life would return to normal.  Not a 'new' normal. A real, restriction-free normal.   We're arguably closer to that date than we are to the date on the conditional sail order, which is stuck in a world where vaccines don't exist and there is nothing beyond 'test and isolate' as a strategy.  

 

Ancient history. 

 

 

 

We here on Cruise Critic are obviously quite enthusiastic and quite biased and definitely impatient for the lifting on restrictions on cruising.  But this is far down the list of things that the CDC is focused on.  Just getting enough vaccines distributed has their 99% attention.  Then assuring the average (and non-cruising) American that they are safe and effective.  They are starting to do this by releasing new guidance slowly like what to do with other vaccinated people in small groups.  This coming at a time when a large percentage of the population is still unvaccinated,  And major states going full speed ahead eliminating restrictions (too early IMO).  So cruising by a bunch of wealthier Americans is not their top priority.  I understand.

[TeeRick]

Here is a good article in this morning's USA Today on the coming vaccine glut in the USA.  I hope this happens but seeing is believing.  

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/03/09/covid-19-vaccine-us-surplus-april-coronavirus/4595458001/

[K.T.B.]

Happy anniversary!  1 year ago today the W.H.O. officially designated Covid-19 as a pandemic.  With vaccines out and becoming more and more available to us, here's hoping next anniversary we'll all be "celebrating" on board of a cruise ship!

[TeeRick]

5 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

Happy anniversary!  1 year ago today the W.H.O. officially designated Covid-19 as a pandemic.  With vaccines out and becoming more and more available to us, here's hoping next anniversary we'll all be "celebrating" on board of a cruise ship!

It is good to reflect on this today.  My state of PA went into total lockdown March 13th in 2020 (Friday the 13th).  Complete panic.  It was a ghost town driving around.  Shortages of everything in the markets.  Scary and uncertain times.  Deaths piling up in Nursing homes.  No therapies.  No vaccines.  Shortage of masks in hospitals.  Not enough ventilators.  Just awful.  We have had over 24,000 deaths just in my state. A year later not out of this yet but we have come a very long way.  Getting highly effective vaccines discovered, tested, distributed and injected in less than 1 year is an amazing medical and scientific accomplishment,

[cangelmd]

42 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Here is a good article in this morning's USA Today on the coming vaccine glut in the USA.  I hope this happens but seeing is believing.  

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/03/09/covid-19-vaccine-us-surplus-april-coronavirus/4595458001/

I think it is very telling that my smart, risk adverse 20 something son, who has worked from home, masked consistently and maintained a very small bubble throughout this entire year, told me he wanted to get j and j because it was less hassle - there may be a lot of people that think that and we are months away from lots of j and j vaccine.

[markeb]

1 minute ago, cangelmd said:

I think it is very telling that my smart, risk adverse 20 something son, who has worked from home, masked consistently and maintained a very small bubble throughout this entire year, told me he wanted to get j and j because it was less hassle - there may be a lot of people that think that and we are months away from lots of j and j vaccine.

 

And you see reports of others who want one of the other two vaccines because of reported better efficacy...

 

Most reports I've seen would put the effectiveness against severe disease and death pretty much the same for all of them, and far better than most of us would have hoped for!

[wrk2cruise]

My appointment is tomorrow to receive the vaccine.  When I signed up for the appointment I had to acknowledge that I could receive either Moderna or J&J.  I personally would prefer the Moderna as that's what DW already has received, but  I'd happily receive either.   I have subsequently learned that this site is doing J&J in the morning and Moderna in the afternoon.  I have an afternoon appointment so I guess we will see.

Edited March 9, 2021 by wrk2cruise

[D C]

2 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

Well said.

 

 

Vaccines will be what changes World Travel sometime this year.   Some countries are ahead of other.  Israel and the UAE practically have most of their people vaccinated.   The UK and USA look to be there sometime this Summer.

 

Cruising looks to start up in early Summer and will likely require passengers to have vaccines.  Then we can start focusing on where to go and what to see.

 

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

We here on Cruise Critic are obviously quite enthusiastic and quite biased and definitely impatient for the lifting on restrictions on cruising.  But this is far down the list of things that the CDC is focused on.  Just getting enough vaccines distributed has their 99% attention.  Then assuring the average (and non-cruising) American that they are safe and effective.  They are starting to do this by releasing new guidance slowly like what to do with other vaccinated people in small groups.  This coming at a time when a large percentage of the population is still unvaccinated,  And major states going full speed ahead eliminating restrictions (too early IMO).  So cruising by a bunch of wealthier Americans is not their top priority.  I understand.

 

Cruising is a subset of global travel which is more than just a matter of leisure and convenience.  Like cruising, the CDC is equally stagnant on what the future might hold for international travel.  These are the areas where the CDC actually has relevance, yet is failing to do their job imho. 

 

Instead, what we get are unenforceable guidelines saying "if you're vaccinated, you can hang out with other vaccinated people and not wear a mask".   I wonder how much it cost them to hire Captain Obvious.    

[PTC DAWG]

6 minutes ago, D C said:

 

 

Cruising is a subset of global travel which is more than just a matter of leisure and convenience.  Like cruising, the CDC is equally stagnant on what the future might hold for international travel.  These are the areas where the CDC actually has relevance, yet is failing to do their job imho. 

 

Instead, what we get are unenforceable guidelines saying "if you're vaccinated, you can hang out with other vaccinated people and not wear a mask".   I wonder how much it cost them to hire Captain Obvious.    

For real, I thought the same thing when I read that....Captain Obvious for sure.  IF we can't get back to normal, what's the point in the vaccines at all?

Edited March 9, 2021 by PTC DAWG

[terrydtx]

56 minutes ago, wrk2cruise said:

My appointment is tomorrow to receive the vaccine.  When I signed up for the appointment I had to acknowledge that I could receive either Moderna or J&J.  I personally would prefer the Moderna as that's what DW already has received, but  I'd happily receive either.   I have subsequently learned that this site is doing J&J in the morning and Moderna in the afternoon.  I have an afternoon appointment so I guess we will see.

We are getting our first shots this morning at CVS and it is Pfizer. In Texas CVS only offers the Pfizer vaccine. I have heard that most who have reactions from the second shot are with Moderna.

Edited March 9, 2021 by terrydtx

[Fouremco]

2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

We here on Cruise Critic are obviously quite enthusiastic and quite biased and definitely impatient for the lifting on restrictions on cruising.  But this is far down the list of things that the CDC is focused on.  Just getting enough vaccines distributed has their 99% attention.  Then assuring the average (and non-cruising) American that they are safe and effective.  They are starting to do this by releasing new guidance slowly like what to do with other vaccinated people in small groups.  This coming at a time when a large percentage of the population is still unvaccinated,  And major states going full speed ahead eliminating restrictions (too early IMO).  So cruising by a bunch of wealthier Americans is not their top priority.  I understand.

Well said. Some people fail to realize how, in the greater scheme of all thing related to resolving the pandemic, cruising is very, very far down the list of items to be addressed.

[nocl]

3 hours ago, D C said:

On 31-October there were no vaccines approved for use, no vaccines submitted for approval, and no meaningful data on the efficacy of vaccines under development. 

 

We now have 3 vaccines that are effective beyond the wildest expectations of anyone on 31-October, all of which are close to perfect at preventing death and serious disease. 

 

From a time-perspective, we're 1 year into COVID.  The conditional sail order has been in place for over 1/3 of that time.   Vaccines have been available for 3 months, or 2/3 of the life of the conditional sail order.  Roughly 60 million people have received at least one dose in that time, and the US expects to have enough vaccines to inoculate the entire adult population in less than 3 more months.   

 

Once vaccines are available to all who wish to have one, it's reasonable that life would return to normal.  Not a 'new' normal. A real, restriction-free normal.   We're arguably closer to that date than we are to the date on the conditional sail order, which is stuck in a world where vaccines don't exist and there is nothing beyond 'test and isolate' as a strategy.  

 

Ancient history. 

 

 

 

once they are administered and the case counts low enough to demonstrate control of the pandemic they will be ancient, at this time the case numbers are not much different than when they were first written.

 

[deadzone1003]

1 hour ago, cangelmd said:

I think it is very telling that my smart, risk adverse 20 something son, who has worked from home, masked consistently and maintained a very small bubble throughout this entire year, told me he wanted to get j and j because it was less hassle - there may be a lot of people that think that and we are months away from lots of j and j vaccine.

Might be alot easier than you think.  Many risk-averse people will go for the mRNA because of the higher efficacy.  Also, I think they will fill the usual flu vaccine pipeline, i.e. pharmacies and doctors, with the J&J as it only makes sense to minimize storage problems.  Those young people who don't think they really need it (unfortunately, there are alot of them and I don't blame them as a 25 year old don't have the same risk as a 70 year old) will gravitate towards J&J simply because of ease and, perhaps, availability.  Might be tight for March, but it should be available in April for your son.  

[TeeRick]

28 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

Might be alot easier than you think.  Many risk-averse people will go for the mRNA because of the higher efficacy.  Also, I think they will fill the usual flu vaccine pipeline, i.e. pharmacies and doctors, with the J&J as it only makes sense to minimize storage problems.  Those young people who don't think they really need it (unfortunately, there are alot of them and I don't blame them as a 25 year old don't have the same risk as a 70 year old) will gravitate towards J&J simply because of ease and, perhaps, availability.  Might be tight for March, but it should be available in April for your son.  

Here in PA they just authorized all teachers and support staff regardless of age to be vaccinated now.  To accelerate this goal, they are using large vaccine centers with the PA National Guard and AMI (DOH contract) to administer the one-shot J&J vaccine.  So once the program is in full swing the timeline is cut in half by using the J&J vaccine.  I think this is a solid approach.

[D C]

20 minutes ago, nocl said:

once they are administered and the case counts low enough to demonstrate control of the pandemic they will be ancient, at this time the case numbers are not much different than when they were first written.

 

I disagree.

Case counts, deaths, and any other 'today' metric is irrelevant when we're talking about future planning.  Whether we're discussing cruising, international travel, or reopening the corner bar & grille, planning and direction are required.  You don't tell the pub on Monday that they can re-open on Tuesday, because staffing and obtaining supplies isn't instantaneous.  

 

Right now, we know that vaccines eliminate covid deaths and immensely reduce severe infections.  We know that we're about 3 months from the US having a glut of vaccines.  We know that over 50% of the adult population is likely to be willing to be vaccinated.  It's a pretty low bar to expect the very organization responsible for creating the future plans to be offering forward-looking guidance on what the future will look like and not sitting on an irrelevant document.   

 

Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?  Hard to say when the CDC is just starting to realise that vaccines exist and work.  

[TeeRick]

3 minutes ago, D C said:

   Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?  Hard to say when the CDC is just starting to realise that vaccines exist and work.  

Dave I usually like and agree with your posts.  But I think this characterization of the CDC is a wee bit unfair.

[D C]

20 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Dave I usually like and agree with your posts.  But I think this characterization of the CDC is a wee bit unfair.

I may tend towards hyperbole when frustrated 😉

 

By and large, the CDC has not been a public party to any discussions regarding the future.  For all of the talk outside of Cruise Critic on various sites and in the media surrounding what to expect going forward (e.g. all of the discussions about vaccine passports) the CDC has remained quiet.  Their recent guidance with the obvious (which is probably more conservative than the behaviours of most people) certainly does not convey a "we're on top of this" position.

[cangelmd]

2 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

Might be alot easier than you think.  Many risk-averse people will go for the mRNA because of the higher efficacy.  Also, I think they will fill the usual flu vaccine pipeline, i.e. pharmacies and doctors, with the J&J as it only makes sense to minimize storage problems.  Those young people who don't think they really need it (unfortunately, there are alot of them and I don't blame them as a 25 year old don't have the same risk as a 70 year old) will gravitate towards J&J simply because of ease and, perhaps, availability.  Might be tight for March, but it should be available in April for your son.  

Let me point out that I was mentioning what my son said in context of the article TeeRick had referenced. He would/will likely take any vaccine offered, but since he is working at home for the foreseeable future he might hold out for the single shot regimen. It raised a concern for me with how many others his age “don’t want to be bothered” to go out of their way for a shot.

 

My son and DIL and my daughter and SIL have have been more careful than I have been!

[cangelmd]

1 hour ago, D C said:

I may tend towards hyperbole when frustrated 😉

 

By and large, the CDC has not been a public party to any discussions regarding the future.  For all of the talk outside of Cruise Critic on various sites and in the media surrounding what to expect going forward (e.g. all of the discussions about vaccine passports) the CDC has remained quiet.  Their recent guidance with the obvious (which is probably more conservative than the behaviours of most people) certainly does not convey a "we're on top of this" position.

That’s kind of the point - they are on top of what they consider to be important right now and lifting international travel bans is not important. No travel is like handwashing, it is a basic basic tenet of infection control that crosses all sorts of pathogens and situations.

[Host Jazzbeau]

Maybe the problem isn't that CDC is too political, but that they aren't political enough.  You have to factor in a cost/benefit analysis to have credibility.  Demanding a solution that is unacceptable just causes people to turn you off.

[D C]

15 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

That’s kind of the point - they are on top of what they consider to be important right now and lifting international travel bans is not important. No travel is like handwashing, it is a basic basic tenet of infection control that crosses all sorts of pathogens and situations.

 

Sure, we get the no travel...now.   The issue is that everyone except the CDC is having the forward-looking discussions and asking "When will....." on a host of topics. 

 

13 minutes ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

Maybe the problem isn't that CDC is too political, but that they aren't political enough.  You have to factor in a cost/benefit analysis to have credibility.  Demanding a solution that is unacceptable just causes people to turn you off.

 

I think that may be pretty accurate.  The CDC isn't part of the discussion everyone else is having, as I noted above.  Saying "you can't" in response to "when can I?" isn't an acceptable response.   "We think maybe...." and fostering the discussion would make them far more credible.