Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[markeb]

58 minutes ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

Maybe the problem isn't that CDC is too political, but that they aren't political enough.  You have to factor in a cost/benefit analysis to have credibility.  Demanding a solution that is unacceptable just causes people to turn you off.

 

Before Rick spanks me and reminds me this is the vaccine thread...

 

The CDC Director isn't Senate confirmed, which makes it less political, but also less politically connected. And it's a highly technical, scientific agency that almost certainly dislikes the politicals. And it's in Atlanta, with a relatively small Washington presence. I'm not even sure how much it directly relates with the various policy coordinating bodies in the Beltway. But international and interstate quarantine is its oldest, and most direct authority, and one it can implement largely without going through the federal rules making process, that generally would include cost/benefit analysis. It would be nice to have top cover from the NSC or HSC and interagency policy coordination, like a Presidential policy document outlining actions by multiple executive agencies, where HHS, through the CDC, was only one actor. I have some dream of a serious look at all the policy level things that could have made this easier, rather than a knee jerk you're wrong blame mentality. But I suspect that's a dream.

 

Back to vaccines, Rick!

[cangelmd]

26 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

Before Rick spanks me and reminds me this is the vaccine thread...

 

The CDC Director isn't Senate confirmed, which makes it less political, but also less politically connected. And it's a highly technical, scientific agency that almost certainly dislikes the politicals. And it's in Atlanta, with a relatively small Washington presence. I'm not even sure how much it directly relates with the various policy coordinating bodies in the Beltway. But international and interstate quarantine is its oldest, and most direct authority, and one it can implement largely without going through the federal rules making process, that generally would include cost/benefit analysis. It would be nice to have top cover from the NSC or HSC and interagency policy coordination, like a Presidential policy document outlining actions by multiple executive agencies, where HHS, through the CDC, was only one actor. I have some dream of a serious look at all the policy level things that could have made this easier, rather than a knee jerk you're wrong blame mentality. But I suspect that's a dream.

 

Back to vaccines, Rick!

This.

They have that authority to some extent to protect us from ourselves.

They will eventually move, just not as fast as we would like.

 

[nocl]

3 hours ago, D C said:

I may tend towards hyperbole when frustrated 😉

 

By and large, the CDC has not been a public party to any discussions regarding the future.  For all of the talk outside of Cruise Critic on various sites and in the media surrounding what to expect going forward (e.g. all of the discussions about vaccine passports) the CDC has remained quiet.  Their recent guidance with the obvious (which is probably more conservative than the behaviours of most people) certainly does not convey a "we're on top of this" position.

The CDC has been very clear in their recommendations based upon the current state of the epidemic and vaccines.

 

They clearly make the following recommendations repeatedly:

 

1. Do not travel

2. Wear masks (except for very specific situations effecting those vaccinated)

3. Socially distance

4. Avoid crowds indoors including indoor dining and bars

and so forth

 

They make those recommendations because 

 

1. The epidemic is not over

2. The presence of the variants, including the SA which does show substantial vaccine resistence

3. The lack of data in a large vaccinated population (the Israel studies do show some of the kind of data they are collecting)

 

All it would take is for a fully vaccine resistant strain to pop up and get loose and we would be back to where we were last August, waiting for a new vaccine to cover the new strain and hoping that the epidemic gets stopped before something appears that is resistant to that.

 

The CDC is aimed at one thing and one thing only to get the case counts down and new infection patterns to indicate that the epidemic is controlled.  That is their job by charter and statute.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nocl]

36 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

Before Rick spanks me and reminds me this is the vaccine thread...

 

The CDC Director isn't Senate confirmed, which makes it less political, but also less politically connected. And it's a highly technical, scientific agency that almost certainly dislikes the politicals. And it's in Atlanta, with a relatively small Washington presence. I'm not even sure how much it directly relates with the various policy coordinating bodies in the Beltway. But international and interstate quarantine is its oldest, and most direct authority, and one it can implement largely without going through the federal rules making process, that generally would include cost/benefit analysis. It would be nice to have top cover from the NSC or HSC and interagency policy coordination, like a Presidential policy document outlining actions by multiple executive agencies, where HHS, through the CDC, was only one actor. I have some dream of a serious look at all the policy level things that could have made this easier, rather than a knee jerk you're wrong blame mentality. But I suspect that's a dream.

 

Back to vaccines, Rick!

Keep in mind that the CDC gets a substantial portion of its authority from a declared state of emergency which is put in place by the President and a confirmed individual in the form of the Secretary of HHS.

[nocl]

1 hour ago, D C said:

 

Sure, we get the no travel...now.   The issue is that everyone except the CDC is having the forward-looking discussions and asking "When will....." on a host of topics. 

 

 

I think that may be pretty accurate.  The CDC isn't part of the discussion everyone else is having, as I noted above.  Saying "you can't" in response to "when can I?" isn't an acceptable response.   "We think maybe...." and fostering the discussion would make them far more credible. 

 

 

How about the rest of the world  Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the Caribbean, South America, Asia where exactly do you see wide open cruising occurring. You see a couple of very limited cruises, with passengers from individual countries.  Cruises that, if they operate at all, are very limited in length with lots of restrictions.

 

As far as travel are not most, if not all of those same countries recommending that only essential travel take place.

 

It seem like the CDC is in line with most of the rest of the developed countries.

[ECCruise]

1 hour ago, nocl said:

It seem like the CDC is in line with most of the rest of the developed countries.

Yes, even countries that had virtually no incidence of COVID.  Vietnam jumps to mind with only 2500 or so cases total in over a year.  In a country of ~100 million that borders China.  Likewise, Singapore They both still have fairly stringent travel restrictions. 

 

[TeeRick]

2 hours ago, markeb said:

 

Before Rick spanks me and reminds me this is the vaccine thread...

HaHaHa I love this!

[TeeRick]

OK drum roll...........................

 

I am very happy to say that both TeeRick and Mrs. TeeRick have now received dose 1 of the Moderna vaccine.  It was a long time coming but finally accomplished.  I feel a great weight off my shoulders.  In another month (plus 2 weeks)  we will be ready to go!  Where I have no idea but we will be ready!😀

[Ken the cruiser]

2 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

OK drum roll...........................

 

I am very happy to say that both TeeRick and Mrs. TeeRick have now received dose 1 of the Moderna vaccine.  It was a long time coming but finally accomplished.  I feel a great weight off my shoulders.  In another month (plus 2 weeks)  we will be ready to go!  Where I have no idea but we will be ready!😀

Yay!!! Welcome to the group!!

[Laurab23]

26 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

OK drum roll...........................

 

I am very happy to say that both TeeRick and Mrs. TeeRick have now received dose 1 of the Moderna vaccine.  It was a long time coming but finally accomplished.  I feel a great weight off my shoulders.  In another month (plus 2 weeks)  we will be ready to go!  Where I have no idea but we will be ready!😀

That is great news. Glad you both were able to get it. Hopefully your second one causes no reaction but even if it does it is worth it!

 

Laura

[mimbecky]

36 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

OK drum roll...........................

 

I am very happy to say that both TeeRick and Mrs. TeeRick have now received dose 1 of the Moderna vaccine.  It was a long time coming but finally accomplished.  I feel a great weight off my shoulders.  In another month (plus 2 weeks)  we will be ready to go!  Where I have no idea but we will be ready!😀

 

So happy for you.  I know it has been a frustrating but patient wait.

[terrydtx]

38 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

OK drum roll...........................

 

I am very happy to say that both TeeRick and Mrs. TeeRick have now received dose 1 of the Moderna vaccine.  It was a long time coming but finally accomplished.  I feel a great weight off my shoulders.  In another month (plus 2 weeks)  we will be ready to go!  Where I have no idea but we will be ready!😀

My DW and I got our first Pfizer shot today and I know how you feel.   We will be ready to go somewhere mid April. In June we are having family memorial services for both of my parents and mother in law who all passed in 2020. None of them died from Covid, they all were 93 and passed from natural causes.

[mayleeman]

1 hour ago, terrydtx said:

My DW and I got our first Pfizer shot today

 

Ditto!

[D C]

5 hours ago, nocl said:

How about the rest of the world  Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the Caribbean, South America, Asia where exactly do you see wide open cruising occurring. You see a couple of very limited cruises, with passengers from individual countries.  Cruises that, if they operate at all, are very limited in length with lots of restrictions.

 

As far as travel are not most, if not all of those same countries recommending that only essential travel take place.

 

It seem like the CDC is in line with most of the rest of the developed countries.

 

You may have missed all of the parts where I was talking about the FUTURE state and not about what's happening NOW.  Everyone knows what's happening now.   

[LGW59]

2 minutes ago, D C said:

 

You may have missed all of the parts where I was talking about the FUTURE state and not about what's happening NOW.  Everyone knows what's happening now.   

I think that YOU missed all of the parts where you talk about FUTURE state.  Time to review...

[hcat]

2 hours ago, terrydtx said:

My DW and I got our first Pfizer shot today and I know how you feel.   We will be ready to go somewhere mid April. In June we are having family memorial services for both of my parents and mother in law who all passed in 2020. None of them died from Covid, they all were 93 and passed from natural causes.

2020 was a rough yr..sorry you lost so many loved ones regardless of the cause....hope you have a nice memorial.

Glad you have your first shot,

[cangelmd]

3 hours ago, TeeRick said:

OK drum roll...........................

 

I am very happy to say that both TeeRick and Mrs. TeeRick have now received dose 1 of the Moderna vaccine.  It was a long time coming but finally accomplished.  I feel a great weight off my shoulders.  In another month (plus 2 weeks)  we will be ready to go!  Where I have no idea but we will be ready!😀

So glad to hear that Mr. Tee (lol).  Had not shared this, but Mr Cangel got his first shot on Saturday, thanks to a very alert and serendipitous action by a friend.

[nocl]

27 minutes ago, D C said:

 

You may have missed all of the parts where I was talking about the FUTURE state and not about what's happening NOW.  Everyone knows what's happening now.   

So does the CDC and when it changes they will change their recommendations.  

 

They will change based upon what the data says, not a projection.

[Ken the cruiser]

In an effort to keep an eye on the prize where everyone who wants to get vaccinated can do so as soon as possible, and of course start cruising again, don't forget AstraZeneca is within a few weeks of getting the results from their ongoing US clinical trials. 

 

If the two-dose vaccine is approved by the U.S. Food and Drug administration, it would be the fourth COVID-19 vaccine available in the United States. Upon FDA approval, AstraZeneca plans "to deliver roughly 50 million doses instantly to Americans," Ruud Dobber, the company's executive vice president, told CBS News on Friday.

 

AstraZeneca to Seek FDA Approval of COVID-19 Vaccine Within Weeks - Consumer Health News | HealthDay

[drarill]

10 hours ago, TeeRick said:

OK drum roll...........................

 

I am very happy to say that both TeeRick and Mrs. TeeRick have now received dose 1 of the Moderna vaccine.  It was a long time coming but finally accomplished.  I feel a great weight off my shoulders.  In another month (plus 2 weeks)  we will be ready to go!  Where I have no idea but we will be ready!😀

I'm really happy for you and Mrs. TeeRick!!!

[ipeeinthepool]

11 hours ago, TeeRick said:

OK drum roll...........................

 

I am very happy to say that both TeeRick and Mrs. TeeRick have now received dose 1 of the Moderna vaccine.  It was a long time coming but finally accomplished.  I feel a great weight off my shoulders.  In another month (plus 2 weeks)  we will be ready to go!  Where I have no idea but we will be ready!😀

 

Congratulations 😀  Let's know where you decide to go.  Just out of curiosity, How did you manage to get an appointment in PA?   WAs it your local hospital, pharmacy, Dr.'s office, etc?  Did they call you or did you need to be proactive by calling every location around?

[sgmn]

On 3/8/2021 at 2:12 AM, Ken the cruiser said:

Thanks @cangelmdfor explaining many of the reasons why AL's positive rate numbers seem so high. And you definitely nailed it when you said we couldn't even get tested for COVID unless we had symptoms and, of course, you also had to call first to make an appointment to get tested. Dont even think of just popping in unannounced.

I've noticed a couple of big testing sites locally, apparently you can just walk in and get tested, no symptoms necessary.  Certainly anyone who works away from home or visits a care home setting can get one.  Our schools went back two days ago.  Each child has been offered a rapid flow test twice a week, initially done in the school setting but eventually they will be given the tests to take home to do

I know the flow tests arn't  perfect but I guess they are better than nothing

[TeeRick]

2 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

Congratulations 😀  Let's know where you decide to go.  Just out of curiosity, How did you manage to get an appointment in PA?   WAs it your local hospital, pharmacy, Dr.'s office, etc?  Did they call you or did you need to be proactive by calling every location around?

We all have interesting stories about this.  Because in many (most?) states unfortunately to this day  getting the vaccine is random luck, serendipity, advanced computer skills, who you know, persistence, rising early, staying up late, or some combination of those things.  Not well organized or planned at the federal, state and county level.  Frustrating and outrageous.  In my state of PA, all of the above applies.  I have been on my county's waiting list since early January.  And on many other waiting lists too like local hospitals and my physicians' practices.  Our state has primarily relied on Rite Aid as the pharmacy partner.  And just recently CVS in limited locations.  Impossible to bag appointments with either of these.  So on to Federal. Through Biden's Federal Pharmacy Program there is a list of additional pharmacy partners.   I kept checking these daily.  Finally right place right time.  Our local supermarket chain Wegmans one day a week ago showed availability.  Grabbed two appointments for myself and dw.   Not on the same day but got them.  The availability was gone from their website in less than 5 minutes.  No availability since.  We were persistent and extremely lucky.  Is this any way to deliver critical, life-saving vaccines in the world's richest country?

[TeeRick]

13 hours ago, terrydtx said:

My DW and I got our first Pfizer shot today and I know how you feel.   We will be ready to go somewhere mid April. In June we are having family memorial services for both of my parents and mother in law who all passed in 2020. None of them died from Covid, they all were 93 and passed from natural causes.

terrydtx sorry for your losses. 

[terrydtx]

7 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

terrydtx sorry for your losses. 

Rick, thank you last year is one we all want to forget. I retired in April with big travel plans for the wife and I and we know how that has worked out so far.  

 

Terry