Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[JL87]

22 hours ago, npcl said:

The issue is not the number into a population mostly immune, the problem on board a ship is if you have a case on board it can spread to non-protected percentage fairly quickly.

 

 

The answer to the pandemic is to drop the number of cases as quickly as possible which will require both the vaccine as will as continued social distancing.

 

Let me talk about the story of another vaccine.  Prior to the Polio vaccine in 1956 it impacted between 15-50,000 people per year. When the polio vaccine was announced to be safe and effective you had people celebrating in the streets because polio was considered to be that much of a scourge.  Even with active programs to vaccinate as many as possible it takes a while. It was not until 1960 that the number of cases in the US dropped below 3,000. It was not considered to be eliminated in the US until 1979. With no transmission taking place in the US since that date.

 

While many in the US will want to drop social distancing and masks the second a vaccine were to come out and declare the crisis over, the driver to policy should be 1 thing and 1 thing only the number of new cases and the rate of infection.  Otherwise you could have a vaccine and find counts going up.

I do agree with you, but it's not exactly what I was trying to say. I'm going to make up some time frame assumptions. In the near term, let's define that as 6 months after a 90% effective vaccine is available, then masks will be required. I agree. There are too many ill informed people that refuse to wear masks and that will be a problem. I'm going to skip social distancing as though it's very important, it's also very difficult to control. Almost impossible really. In the mid-term, let's say 6 months to a year after an effective vaccine has been introduced, then requiring a mask to travel may go away. If enough people are vaccinated world wide, then the risk for cruising will diminish not because of the risk for infection on a cruise, but because countries may let infected people depart and go their own way without any quarantine measures. Eliminating the possibility of quarantine is the only way I see the cruise industry getting back on its feet. That and not having to wear masks will revive the travel industry. I also believe a vaccination will be required by most cruise companies but not airlines. I really don't see any other way

 

BTW, polio was expanding in the modern world during a time when the health care infrastructure among developed nations was at a very early stage. The infrastructure now is much more robust and capable of handling a crisis like this if managed properly. Vaccine availability will obviously be a major factor as will the percentage of people willing to participate. That remains to be seen on both fronts.          

[K.T.B.]

Unfortunately, where masks or anything that is for the public good are concerned, Americans as a whole are staggeringly selfish.  Not just like your pizza "I don't want to share" selfish, but apocalyptic "I will let you die rather than inconvenience myself" selfish.  So even when a vaccine is developed and ready to be distributed, many will find an excuse to not vaccinate.

 

People want to be past this, but refuse to be the one to sacrifice a tiny bit.  "Let them do it, I won't!" 

 

And if anyone finds that offensive on here, guess what camp you fall into...?

 

The thing is, people were just as selfish in 1918 as they as in 2020, so it's not a new phenomenon. You think we would have learned.

[cgolf1]

14 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

Unfortunately, where masks or anything that is for the public good are concerned, Americans as a whole are staggeringly selfish.  Not just like your pizza "I don't want to share" selfish, but apocalyptic "I will let you die rather than inconvenience myself" selfish.  So even when a vaccine is developed and ready to be distributed, many will find an excuse to not vaccinate.

 

People want to be past this, but refuse to be the one to sacrifice a tiny bit.  "Let them do it, I won't!" 

 

And if anyone finds that offensive on here, guess what camp you fall into...?

 

The thing is, people were just as selfish in 1918 as they as in 2020, so it's not a new phenomenon. You think we would have learned.

 

From what I have read some are beyond selfish. They see this whole thing as the government trying to control the population. Those people will likely never wear a mask or take the vaccine because that is part of someones plan. What these people miss is this would then be a worldwide conspiracy and no countries get along well enough to pull that off. Some people still don't believe it is a thing. Very strange times, and the science changes daily because they are learning new things about it, not like they had years to study it.

[terrydtx]

56 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

Unfortunately, where masks or anything that is for the public good are concerned, Americans as a whole are staggeringly selfish.  Not just like your pizza "I don't want to share" selfish, but apocalyptic "I will let you die rather than inconvenience myself" selfish.  So even when a vaccine is developed and ready to be distributed, many will find an excuse to not vaccinate.

 

People want to be past this, but refuse to be the one to sacrifice a tiny bit.  "Let them do it, I won't!" 

 

And if anyone finds that offensive on here, guess what camp you fall into...?

 

The thing is, people were just as selfish in 1918 as they as in 2020, so it's not a new phenomenon. You think we would have learned.

It will be real simple do not vaccinate, you do not travel outside of the US, cross any state lines or get on any cruise ship or airplane.  Basically those who chose to not vaccinate will be stuck in their homes or hometowns.

[TeeRick]

10 minutes ago, terrydtx said:

It will be real simple do not vaccinate, you do not travel outside of the US, cross any state lines or get on any cruise ship or airplane.  Basically those who chose to not vaccinate will be stuck in their homes or hometowns.

Your logic is good here.  But logic will not prevail in the US.  It never does.   It will be just as difficult as mask compliance or even more so to get people vaccinated.  The states and federal government agencies will highly recommend but not mandate.  The only vaccine mandates to date have been for kids attending public schools.  That might happen.  I doubt that airlines would mandate vaccination at least for domestic flights.  Perhaps they might need to have mandates on international flights for countries requiring them.  It is possible that countries like Canada might mandate vaccination for border crossings.  But I really do not see mandates for border crossing between states - and how would that even be monitored and enforced?  I do believe that at least cruise ships as private entities will require vaccination for boarding.

[terrydtx]

2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

But I really do not see mandates for border crossing between states - and how would that even be monitored and enforced?  I do believe that at least cruise ships as private entities will require vaccination for boarding.

NYC announced today that the city is setting up checkpoints on all rods going into the city to enforce their quarantine rules. So yes many states and or cities may do the same for people who refuse to get vaccinated. 

[K.T.B.]

It will be very easy to monitor.  For those who get vaccinated, they get their passport stamped.  I your passport doesn't have one, sorry,  you go nowhere!

 

The thing is, people will rail against ANY supposed "attack on their rights!"  Even if it's for the greater good.

[npcl]

34 minutes ago, terrydtx said:

NYC announced today that the city is setting up checkpoints on all rods going into the city to enforce their quarantine rules. So yes many states and or cities may do the same for people who refuse to get vaccinated. 

They are setting up checkpoints to remind people about self quarantine or face a fine, however, unlike Hawaii which does check on people in quarantine, I have not heard of New York actually enforcing the quarantine and actually fining someone who does not quarantine.

[Fouremco]

24 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

It will be very easy to monitor.  For those who get vaccinated, they get their passport stamped.  I your passport doesn't have one, sorry,  you go nowhere!

 

The thing is, people will rail against ANY supposed "attack on their rights!"  Even if it's for the greater good.

Most countries issue some type of immunization record that provides a history of your vaccinations, probably a better option than stamping your passport. Not all cruises require a passport of all passengers, and I doubt that Celebrity or other lines would want to impose a requirement for passports for all passengers for all cruises. Besides, using a passport for other than its intended purpose might be problematic for many countries. 

[cgolf1]

3 hours ago, terrydtx said:

NYC announced today that the city is setting up checkpoints on all rods going into the city to enforce their quarantine rules. So yes many states and or cities may do the same for people who refuse to get vaccinated. 

 

I really doubt this would happen in the US, it might, but I think a group of people may openly revolt against that. The mask mandate in WI, the impending vaccine is really pushing the limits with some people. If we can get people to use some common sense and not throw sand bar parties with 1000's of people I think we will be alright, but just not sure how to get that stopped. In WI we have certain counties where law enforcement won't enforce the mask mandate, so what good does it really do?

 

We try to live a smart life right now and limit our trips out to work and essentials. Are we helping the economy, sadly not to much, but that is what safe is for us. We have done some house projects and bought a big shed, so maybe we are helping the economy some🙂

 

 

[npcl]

2 hours ago, cgolf1 said:

 

I really doubt this would happen in the US, it might, but I think a group of people may openly revolt against that. The mask mandate in WI, the impending vaccine is really pushing the limits with some people. If we can get people to use some common sense and not throw sand bar parties with 1000's of people I think we will be alright, but just not sure how to get that stopped. In WI we have certain counties where law enforcement won't enforce the mask mandate, so what good does it really do?

 

We try to live a smart life right now and limit our trips out to work and essentials. Are we helping the economy, sadly not to much, but that is what safe is for us. We have done some house projects and bought a big shed, so maybe we are helping the economy some🙂

 

 

Some counties sheriffs did the same in Oregon.  So the state is enforcing via the business license, liquor license and state Occupational Health and Safety.  One restaurant and bar in a town close to where I live was not following the rules.  Had large numbers crowding into the bar, a liquor control agent showed up inspecting, no more liquor license..

 

We actually have pretty good compliance, even though our county sheriff said back in April not to call his department for rule violations.

[K.T.B.]

7 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Most countries issue some type of immunization record that provides a history of your vaccinations, probably a better option than stamping your passport. Not all cruises require a passport of all passengers, and I doubt that Celebrity or other lines would want to impose a requirement for passports for all passengers for all cruises. Besides, using a passport for other than its intended purpose might be problematic for many countries. 

 

Very true.  One way or the other, I personally feel that only people who been vaccinated should be allowed on a cruise or out of the country.  And they need to provide proof.

[Fouremco]

1 minute ago, K.T.B. said:

 

Very true.  One way or the other, I personally feel that only people who been vaccinated should be allowed on a cruise or out of the country.  And they need to provide proof.

Absolutely! Vaccination, with proof, is an absolute necessity to get me back aboard.

[WrittenOnYourHeart]

On 8/6/2020 at 12:11 PM, terrydtx said:

NYC announced today that the city is setting up checkpoints on all rods going into the city to enforce their quarantine rules. So yes many states and or cities may do the same for people who refuse to get vaccinated. 

 

While I agree that it is a good step, the only way to truly enforce them would be to send someone with them to camp outside their door for 14 days or attach an ankle monitor (like used on house arrest people) to them. Phones can be left in hotel rooms or at apartments. (I've already seen people on other forums admit to knowing someone who did that.)

Edited August 7, 2020 by WrittenOnYourHeart

[dallasdan]

14 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Absolutely! Vaccination, with proof, is an absolute necessity to get me back aboard.

Let me say this first.  I am not Anti-Vaccine, but where does it end.  Are you going to require a vaccine to go to a concert, sporting event, lecture, broadway show, etc.... any place with more than 20, 100, 1000 people???  

[npcl]

I am hearing one thing about potential vaccine tests that I do not care for.

 

Most vaccine trials are large, placebo control trials.  They collect both efficacy and safety data from a fairly large group. A group that is instructed to go about their lives, but follow good practices to avoid getting infected (both those with the drug and the placebo group).  So anyone that gets infected does so with steps taken to make sure they are informed about ways to avoid eposure.

 

The individual running the Oxford vaccine project wants to test their vaccine using a challenge trial.  A challenge is where you take a relatively small group (as few as 40) give them the vaccine, then intentionally expose them to the virus.

 

While this might get efficacy data quickly, it does not give the safety information that comes from a large placebo trial.  To me it violates the normal ethics rules that go along with clinical trials.  You do not intentionally infect patients with a potentially fatal illness. 

 

If they do go a head with a challenge trial and do not wait for a full scale placebo trial this is a vaccine I would avoid.

[npcl]

4 minutes ago, dallasdan said:

Let me say this first.  I am not Anti-Vaccine, but where does it end.  Are you going to require a vaccine to go to a concert, sporting event, lecture, broadway show, etc.... any place with more than 20, 100, 1000 people???  

Potentially yes.  Any activity that is currently shutdown, that potentially would want to start up prior to virus counts dropping to an appropriate level for them to open safely.  If the other option is to stay closed.

[Fouremco]

Just now, dallasdan said:

Let me say this first.  I am not Anti-Vaccine, but where does it end.  Are you going to require a vaccine to go to a concert, sporting event, lecture, broadway show, etc.... any place with more than 20, 100, 1000 people???  

For the immediate future, in the absence of a vaccine, DW and I will forgo all gatherings of this nature. It's simply not worth the risk in our opinion. Others might disagree, but we don't want to add to the already staggering global pandemic statistics.

[vintagegarage]

A vaccine won't help if cruise ships continue to abort cruises, and ports continue to deny access, when a positive covid case appears on board.  At some point for cruising to continue, the occurrence of a case on board will have to be handled like a case of the flue on board was handled before covid.

[markeb]

1 hour ago, npcl said:

I am hearing one thing about potential vaccine tests that I do not care for.

 

Most vaccine trials are large, placebo control trials.  They collect both efficacy and safety data from a fairly large group. A group that is instructed to go about their lives, but follow good practices to avoid getting infected (both those with the drug and the placebo group).  So anyone that gets infected does so with steps taken to make sure they are informed about ways to avoid eposure.

 

The individual running the Oxford vaccine project wants to test their vaccine using a challenge trial.  A challenge is where you take a relatively small group (as few as 40) give them the vaccine, then intentionally expose them to the virus.

 

While this might get efficacy data quickly, it does not give the safety information that comes from a large placebo trial.  To me it violates the normal ethics rules that go along with clinical trials.  You do not intentionally infect patients with a potentially fatal illness. 

 

If they do go a head with a challenge trial and do not wait for a full scale placebo trial this is a vaccine I would avoid.

 

Saw that last night and can't believe this is being seriously considered! I did notice it was the Oxford researcher, not the AZ vaccine trial managers discussing it. I can't imagine AZ getting within a million miles of this one! Not only serious ethical considerations, but if any of the coronavirus immunity issues are going to happen, you need the large scale trial to see them.

[K.T.B.]

10 hours ago, dallasdan said:

Let me say this first.  I am not Anti-Vaccine, but where does it end.  Are you going to require a vaccine to go to a concert, sporting event, lecture, broadway show, etc.... any place with more than 20, 100, 1000 people???  

 

Why not?  This is a pandemic.  Keeping people healthy and safe and alive is what matters. 725,000 dead worldwide is no joke.

 

Getting a polio shot is required before going to school, it should be the same with any covid vaccine.

[lyndarra]

On 8/2/2020 at 8:11 AM, Ken the cruiser said:

My son taught me something a little while ago that helped quite a bit when I would want to unload on someone for posting something I totally disagreed with. Here's what he said.

 

Type up a draft response with everything you would want to say. I mean unload it all. Then check your grammar and edit it until it's exactly what you want to say. Then, once you have it just right with all of your emotions included, DELETE it. You will be surprised how relaxed you will become once it disappears from the screen. I've done that a few times and just before hitting Submit, I think of what my son told me. Just a thought ...

I've done just that many times. By the time I'm finished the head has cooled a little and then I ask myself "Why bother?" then hit delete.

[Mark_T]

15 hours ago, npcl said:

If they do go a head with a challenge trial and do not wait for a full scale placebo trial this is a vaccine I would avoid.

 

The Oxford vaccine is already in phase III testing, the discussion about challenge testing is not a replacement for large scale testing in this case but it is a way of dealing with the problems that occur when the prevalence of the virus in the wild drops to a point where you can't reasonably assume that enough individuals are getting exposed...

 

Challenge testing has also been suggest for other vaccine candidates to help determine if they are effective enough to take to large scale phase III testing, that is more contentious I would say.

 

Keep in mind that anyone involved in a challenge trial is fully informed and knows what they are getting into and still wants to proceed with the trial, nobody is going to find themselves on such a trial without that disclosure.

[phoenix_dream]

3 hours ago, Mark_T said:

 

The Oxford vaccine is already in phase III testing, the discussion about challenge testing is not a replacement for large scale testing in this case but it is a way of dealing with the problems that occur when the prevalence of the virus in the wild drops to a point where you can't reasonably assume that enough individuals are getting exposed...

 

Challenge testing has also been suggest for other vaccine candidates to help determine if they are effective enough to take to large scale phase III testing, that is more contentious I would say.

 

Keep in mind that anyone involved in a challenge trial is fully informed and knows what they are getting into and still wants to proceed with the trial, nobody is going to find themselves on such a trial without that disclosure.

Exactly.  No one is being forced to enter such a trial and they will be fully knowledgeable about repercussions beforehand.  Lawyers for the drug companies will see to that.  It is really no different in many ways from the brave people who join the military, particularly in times of war.  They know the risk, but they agree to take it for the greater good.  It is nice to know there are so many brave people out there, as opposed to the selfish, inconsiderate, me first ones who refuse to follow the current guidelines for masks and the like. 

[Threedrones]

9 hours ago, K.T.B. said:

 

Why not?  This is a pandemic.  Keeping people healthy and safe and alive is what matters. 725,000 dead worldwide is no joke.

 

Getting a polio shot is required before going to school, it should be the same with any covid vaccine.

650,000 people die from the common flu every year worldwide. You are not required to show a flu shot before cruising.