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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


Ken the cruiser
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2 hours ago, mimbecky said:

I think my selfish concern is that my one year mark exactly coincides with our trip to Australia/NZ.  If we need a booster to travel, I hope I can get one. 

If there are still a significant number of COVID cases in the US by then, I doubt that Australia/NZ will allow tourists, vaccine or not.

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40 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

I have some of the same concerns, my first shot was just before Christmas and my second was January 8. I’m not sure it will be figured out then.

LOL, DH is worried for me because I don’t have a nice card with the cdc logo in the corner- those weren’t available for the very first round. My card has the name of the health system administering the shot

Read an article  today about lost cards or those who do not have proof. 

 

Suggests contact with  your state registry if there is one and/ or place that administered your shots.

 

Article also suggested orig cards be kept in a safe place  until needed,  and that copies be given to one's   health care provider..as a secondary back up..

 

Our last shot was Feb 2021  and our next possible  cruise is Jan 2022..hope timing will work out if a booster and proof  are needed .

 

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21 hours ago, markeb said:

 

They'll need to complete their clinical trials, and file a full Biological License Application. Then another data review (they're all on rolling submissions, so that "should" be fairly fast), another review by the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, and then through internal processing within the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER), and assuming no issues, licensure (biologics, including vaccines, get licensed, not approved; it's a difference that arguably makes no difference, but don't say that to anyone who's gone through the process).

 

Most of the complete clinical trials had final endpoints this year out to 2022. So that's the long pole right now.

The FDA had a requirement of 6 months after last second dose in the trials.  That just passed for Pfizer so I expect them to file for full approval soon.

 

That may tie into the FDA studying the allergy question.in more depth.

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The main thing I am watching is for more information on the Astra Zeneca vaccine and variants with E484K mutation.  The trial in South Africa indicated poor efficacy against one of those variants.

 

Problem is that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is being used in many places.  From what I have read the main reason why the UK is maintaining travel restrictions is to try and keep those variants out of the country.

 

India, whose primary vaccine is Astra Zeneca,  is having major increase in cases and there are known variants with the E484K mutation circulating there.  However they are in single digits in the percentage of people vaccinated so unclear if they are seeing those vaccinated getting infected or not.

 

Depending upon how this works out it may mean that the countries that are heavily dependent upon that vaccine might keep travel restrictions in place longer.

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23 hours ago, KWW88 said:

sorry but last time I was in a hotel, there were not 2,000, 3,000, 4,000 people in the lobby

That seems like quite a lot of people for a cruise ship lobby as well. 

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56 minutes ago, nocl said:

The main thing I am watching is for more information on the Astra Zeneca vaccine and variants with E484K mutation.  The trial in South Africa indicated poor efficacy against one of those variants.

 

Problem is that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is being used in many places.  From what I have read the main reason why the UK is maintaining travel restrictions is to try and keep those variants out of the country.

 

India, whose primary vaccine is Astra Zeneca,  is having major increase in cases and there are known variants with the E484K mutation circulating there.  However they are in single digits in the percentage of people vaccinated so unclear if they are seeing those vaccinated getting infected or not.

 

Depending upon how this works out it may mean that the countries that are heavily dependent upon that vaccine might keep travel restrictions in place longer.

South Africa stopped the ox-az because it didn't prevent mild cases.  Never saw where it wasn't effective at preventing severe cases. 

 

As for increases, look no farther than michigan.  Lots of cases here despite halfway decent vaccination figures.  The side effect of extra-severe restrictions, warm weather, and covid-fatigue, I suppose. 

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On 4/6/2021 at 5:57 PM, Ken the cruiser said:

Looks like CDC is willing to play if the cruise lines meet them in the middle. We can hope anyway ...

Ken

 

I quoted your post not to respond to it, but to just catch you attention to thank you for starting this thread and adding to it with such useful info. And with so many others who have provided useful info and good COVID guidance. 

 

The one thing I really got out of this (and related threads!) was a few names of posters I will ensure I do not approach, the ‘no-vaccers’. There were surprisingly only a few and I’ve captured their tags and will just watch out for them. The way its playing out, we don’t really have to worry about them on a cruise, do we. And for the ones who loved to toss in their ‘it’s just the flu’ level of thinking, no I don’t really worry or note them too much because they enjoy their silly game, but will get their shots and just grumble away. But the no-vaccers are a group we all need to stay away from.

 

enough. Again, thanks. Den

 

Den

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55 minutes ago, Denny01 said:

Ken

 

I quoted your post not to respond to it, but to just catch you attention to thank you for starting this thread and adding to it with such useful info. And with so many others who have provided useful info and good COVID guidance. 

 

The one thing I really got out of this (and related threads!) was a few names of posters I will ensure I do not approach, the ‘no-vaccers’. There were surprisingly only a few and I’ve captured their tags and will just watch out for them. The way its playing out, we don’t really have to worry about them on a cruise, do we. And for the ones who loved to toss in their ‘it’s just the flu’ level of thinking, no I don’t really worry or note them too much because they enjoy their silly game, but will get their shots and just grumble away. But the no-vaccers are a group we all need to stay away from.

 

enough. Again, thanks. Den

 

Den

Thanks Den! It's definitely been quite the thread that many very knowledgeable folks have contributed to from which we have all learned so much from when it comes to the vaccine evolution process.

 

Yes, there have been a few characters on this thread posting some unique positions. But in a lot of those cases, some of our more knowledgeable contributors, and you know who you are, have provided some very insightful and polite rebuttals in an effort to keep this thread on track without going too sideways, and I once again want to thank them for that. 

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2 hours ago, D C said:

South Africa stopped the ox-az because it didn't prevent mild cases.  Never saw where it wasn't effective at preventing severe cases. 

 

As for increases, look no farther than michigan.  Lots of cases here despite halfway decent vaccination figures.  The side effect of extra-severe restrictions, warm weather, and covid-fatigue, I suppose. 

yes, that was due to study I mentioned.

 

Michigan appears to be due to B.117, the UK variant. Hospitalizations of those under 50 growing die to that strain. More virulent than the originsl.

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4 hours ago, cruiserchuck said:

If there are still a significant number of COVID cases in the US by then, I doubt that Australia/NZ will allow tourists, vaccine or not.

I know they are now closed through the end of 2021. Fortunately we have an Australian on our forum who will keep us updated. In speaking with an Air NZ rep I was told they expect to all be vaccinated by end of July and hope to open early.  I don't know about that but keeping fingers crossed.

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4 hours ago, hcat said:

Read an article  today about lost cards or those who do not have proof. 

 

My friends mother claimed she never got a card 🥴. When she took her in for her second shot, the staff were able to look up information somehow and wrote out a new card (Florida).  I told her to take a picture and email it to herself so they will at least have the lot numbers in the future.

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2 hours ago, mimbecky said:

I know they are now closed through the end of 2021. Fortunately we have an Australian on our forum who will keep us updated. In speaking with an Air NZ rep I was told they expect to all be vaccinated by end of July and hope to open early.  I don't know about that but keeping fingers crossed.

We'll be lucky if all are vaccinated by end of year. The roll out is going ever so slow due to lack of supply and Government snafus. The way things are going the majority wont be getting their second shot until October.

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7 hours ago, mimbecky said:

 

My friends mother claimed she never got a card 🥴. When she took her in for her second shot, the staff were able to look up information somehow and wrote out a new card (Florida).  I told her to take a picture and email it to herself so they will at least have the lot numbers in the future.

DW got her card with her 2nd dose.  LTC facility.  They brought something like 100 doses but 75 cards the first time around.  Ummm... y'all knew how many jabs you were giving that day. 🙄 Clearly the jab administrator is keeping those records.  

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14 hours ago, mimbecky said:

I think my selfish concern is that my one year mark exactly coincides with our trip to Australia/NZ.  If we need a booster to travel, I hope I can get one. 

Understand your concern but let's think about this a bit.   Where is the data that says that we will need a COVID booster vaccine at exactly 1 year?  There is only 6 months of data so far.  All good.  Why do some assume that 1 year is the booster date if it is even needed?  Maybe 2 years? 5 years?  Who knows?  That is my point.   I think there is some confusion with Influenza vaccines being needed every year.  That is due to a change in circulating strains.  For COVID we have variants but so far the vaccines work against them too.  Maybe with the exception of the AZ vaccine and S.Africa variant.   It is possible that the current vaccines will keep you primed and ready for much longer than 1 year.  Recent studies have started to characterize T Cell responses against original and variant strains.  All looking good.

 

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/948577?src=wnl_edit_tpal&uac=370300SV&impID=3288391&faf=1

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2 minutes ago, D C said:

DW got her card with her 2nd dose.  LTC facility.  They brought something like 100 doses but 75 cards the first time around.  Ummm... y'all knew how many jabs you were giving that day. 🙄 Clearly the jab administrator is keeping those records.  

After our little white CDC card was completed for our second dose, we made a photocopy of both sides and then scanned and saved as a PDF.  Just in case we need to send it to a cruise line at some point.  And having an electronic back up is a way to keep it safe.  We were also advised to take a photo on our phones and save it there in case we ever needed to provide documentation on the spot - like in a port of call.  I also ordered plastic CDC card sleeves - a who bunch of varieties on Amazon.😀

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5 hours ago, lyndarra said:

We'll be lucky if all are vaccinated by end of year. The roll out is going ever so slow due to lack of supply and Government snafus. The way things are going the majority wont be getting their second shot until October.

Disappointing to those of us that want to travel there- but at least you do not have COVID cases and deaths like we have in the US and rest of the world.  The vaccine is of course needed in your country and I do hope you get it soon-  but it is not desperately needed there like some other places. 

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1 minute ago, TeeRick said:

After our little white CDC card was completed for our second dose, we made a photocopy of both sides and then scanned and saved as a PDF.  Just in case we need to send it to a cruise line at some point.  And having an electronic back up is a way to keep it safe.  We were also advised to take a photo on our phones and save it there in case we ever needed to provide documentation on the spot - like in a port of call.  I also ordered plastic CDC card sleeves - a who bunch of varieties on Amazon.😀

I just love how they're not the size of anything else in the world.

Wallet sized? Heck no.  That would have been easy.

Passport sized? Nope.  Would make too much sense to have it the size of a standard passport page. 

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9 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Thanks Den! It's definitely been quite the thread that many very knowledgeable folks have contributed to from which we have all learned so much from when it comes to the vaccine evolution process.

 

Yes, there have been a few characters on this thread posting some unique positions. But in a lot of those cases, some of our more knowledgeable contributors, and you know who you are, have provided some very insightful and polite rebuttals in an effort to keep this thread on track without going too sideways, and I once again want to thank them for that. 

I have used my Ignore button and I don't even see the posts and posters that annoy me or bait me.  I have no need to respond to such posts or try to convince them that they are ignoring science.  They clearly don't understand it or care to understand it.  Those that do respond just give them the attention they seem to crave.  

 

By the way- anybody is free to Ignore me too!😀

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1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

After our little white CDC card was completed for our second dose, we made a photocopy of both sides and then scanned and saved as a PDF.  Just in case we need to send it to a cruise line at some point.  And having an electronic back up is a way to keep it safe.  We were also advised to take a photo on our phones and save it there in case we ever needed to provide documentation on the spot - like in a port of call.  I also ordered plastic CDC card sleeves - a who bunch of varieties on Amazon.😀

Great ideas Rick! Just had the DW do the same with ours, just in case ... 😉

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9 hours ago, nocl said:

yes, that was due to study I mentioned.

 

Michigan appears to be due to B.117, the UK variant. Hospitalizations of those under 50 growing die to that strain. More virulent than the originsl.

 

Those who won't get vaccinated or have not had Covid are setting themselves up to catch that variant. That is why it is growing in younger demographics. Older age groups have had a high rate of vaccination. I would say 80% of over 65 in my county are at least one does. As the percentage of the population vaccanated or with Covid immunity rises those left are going to be the big fat target of the virus. It needs to feed. 

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1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

Understand your concern but let's think about this a bit.   Where is the data that says that we will need a COVID booster vaccine at exactly 1 year?  There is only 6 months of data so far.  All good.  Why do some assume that 1 year is the booster date if it is even needed?  Maybe 2 years? 5 years?  Who knows?  That is my point.   I think there is some confusion with Influenza vaccines being needed every year.  That is due to a change in circulating strains.  For COVID we have variants but so far the vaccines work against them too.  Maybe with the exception of the AZ vaccine and S.Africa variant.   It is possible that the current vaccines will keep you primed and ready for much longer than 1 year.  Recent studies have started to characterize T Cell responses against original and variant strains.  All looking good.

 

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/948577?src=wnl_edit_tpal&uac=370300SV&impID=3288391&faf=1

Something  I have thought about but haven’t read about too much is that I assume Pfizer and Moderna (probably AZ too) are working on a booster with updates for variants? I would think they/we would want to immunize for variants if possible.

Am I correct that they have recruited or re-recruited people from the original trials  to monitor for waning immunity? Otherwise, the only way to know if a booster to the original strain is needed is if cases start to rise. 
 

I agree that the data and analyses I have seen lean in the direction of Covid looking more like a virus with lifelong or near lifelong immunity from vaccination. I’ve seen one or two experts start to say that, but with lots of caveats. No one in ID or public health is ready to speculate clearly in the media because good news equals do exactly what you want to do - losing sight if the fact that good outcomes are based on vaccination and many many people aren’t vaccinated yet. 
 

I think the evidence points toward Covid gradually disappearing into the great mass of corona viruses and being indistinguishable from a cold for people under 50. But that’s only when virus circulation goes down worldwide and we stop inducing variants. And I could be way way wrong in the end.

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19 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

Something  I have thought about but haven’t read about too much is that I assume Pfizer and Moderna (probably AZ too) are working on a booster with updates for variants? I would think they/we would want to immunize for variants if possible.

Am I correct that they have recruited or re-recruited people from the original trials  to monitor for waning immunity? Otherwise, the only way to know if a booster to the original strain is needed is if cases start to rise. 
 

I agree that the data and analyses I have seen lean in the direction of Covid looking more like a virus with lifelong or near lifelong immunity from vaccination. I’ve seen one or two experts start to say that, but with lots of caveats. No one in ID or public health is ready to speculate clearly in the media because good news equals do exactly what you want to do - losing sight if the fact that good outcomes are based on vaccination and many many people aren’t vaccinated yet. 
 

I think the evidence points toward Covid gradually disappearing into the great mass of corona viruses and being indistinguishable from a cold for people under 50. But that’s only when virus circulation goes down worldwide and we stop inducing variants. And I could be way way wrong in the end.

Yes Pfizer and Moderna have reported making vaccines matching variants already.  At least the S.Africa variant. I know that Pfizer is testing the following approaches in clinical studies or proposed clinical studies:

1) third dose of current vaccine to measure if antibody levels are boosted high enough to neutralize the S. Africa variant virus.

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-new-variants/

2) S.Africa variant mRNA vaccine

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-initiate-study-part-broad-development

3) Mix and match original and variant mRNA vaccines.

4) Pfizer mRNA vaccine followed by AZ/Oxford vaccine, or vice versa

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/945268

 

My guess is that somebody will also look at prime boost mRNA vaccine then protein vaccine (Novavax).  The idea of this (and number 1 above) would be to get antibody responses high enough that they still neutralize a variant even if they bind less tightly.  But Pfizer is already reporting effectiveness against the S. Africa variant anyway real world.

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1 hour ago, cangelmd said:

Something  I have thought about but haven’t read about too much is that I assume Pfizer and Moderna (probably AZ too) are working on a booster with updates for variants? I would think they/we would want to immunize for variants if possible.

Am I correct that they have recruited or re-recruited people from the original trials  to monitor for waning immunity? Otherwise, the only way to know if a booster to the original strain is needed is if cases start to rise. 
 

I agree that the data and analyses I have seen lean in the direction of Covid looking more like a virus with lifelong or near lifelong immunity from vaccination. I’ve seen one or two experts start to say that, but with lots of caveats. No one in ID or public health is ready to speculate clearly in the media because good news equals do exactly what you want to do - losing sight if the fact that good outcomes are based on vaccination and many many people aren’t vaccinated yet. 
 

I think the evidence points toward Covid gradually disappearing into the great mass of corona viruses and being indistinguishable from a cold for people under 50. But that’s only when virus circulation goes down worldwide and we stop inducing variants. And I could be way way wrong in the end.

The original trials were 24 month trial I would expect that they will check all of the participants that have not dropped out for antibody level through the complete period.

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1 hour ago, Charles4515 said:

 

Those who won't get vaccinated or have not had Covid are setting themselves up to catch that variant. That is why it is growing in younger demographics. Older age groups have had a high rate of vaccination. I would say 80% of over 65 in my county are at least one does. As the percentage of the population vaccanated or with Covid immunity rises those left are going to be the big fat target of the virus. It needs to feed. 

Even more positive results.  Over 76% of the older population in the US has received at least one dose and almost 60% have received the full dose.  It will certainly significantly reduce the deaths indicated as Covid related.  
 

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