Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[markeb]

6 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

Vaccines dont last long. Virus can mutate and it does mutate and in order to be fully protected you need to be vaccinated on a year basis. In any case, as long as more than half of the population is vaccinated you can be fine 

 

No. The only factual statement in your post is that viruses mutate. Please stop popping into threads on subjects where you have no knowledge apparently just to raise your post count. 

[TeeRick]

38 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

Vaccines dont last long. Virus can mutate and it does mutate and in order to be fully protected you need to be vaccinated on a year basis. In any case, as long as more than half of the population is vaccinated you can be fine 

OK whatever you say.

[nocl]

52 minutes ago, mayleeman said:

 

I blame Rx ads with the 1 minute of marketing and 5 minutes of every possible side effect or other maladies that "have happened" with no information about causation or likelihood. We are now hyper-informed to pay attention to the negative and not informed about how to analyze anything.

 

Your info and the others contributing here are far more education for us cruise readers than most people can get.

Companies are legally required to disclose in ads side effects that occurred during clinical trials.

[TeeRick]

Real World effectiveness of Russia Sputnik V vaccine.  To be published according to the article.  Their previous data was published in the respected British medical journal Lancet.  This vaccine uses 2 slightly different human adenovectors (AD-26 and AD-5) expressing SPIKE for first and second doses.   The J&J vaccine is 1 dose (AD-26 only).  So it will be interesting to see if the vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT) occurs with Sputnik V as well.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-russia-vaccine/update-1-russias-sputnik-v-vaccine-97-6-effective-in-real-world-study-idINL1N2MC1BG

[TeeRick]

General article from National Geographic on the COVID vaccines and viral transmission.

 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/yes-vaccines-block-most-transmission-of-covid-19

[nocl]

18 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Real World effectiveness of Russia Sputnik V vaccine.  To be published according to the article.  Their previous data was published in the respected British medical journal Lancet.  This vaccine uses 2 slightly different human adenovectors (AD-26 and AD-5) expressing SPIKE for first and second doses.   The J&J vaccine is 1 dose (AD-26 only).  So it will be interesting to see if the vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT) occurs with Sputnik V as well.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-russia-vaccine/update-1-russias-sputnik-v-vaccine-97-6-effective-in-real-world-study-idINL1N2MC1BG

We may never know even if it does. Considering that they released it before a phase 3 trial. Not sure how much one could count on their adverse event tracking and reporting.

[TeeRick]

8 minutes ago, nocl said:

We may never know even if it does. Considering that they released it before a phase 3 trial. Not sure how much one could count on their adverse event tracking and reporting.

There are EU countries negotiating with Russia on Sputnik V contracts right now.  Even Western Europe countries like Germany.

 

https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/08/germany-to-discuss-potential-sputnik-v-covid-19-vaccine-purchase-with-russia

[Spif Barwunkel]

As I have said in the past, this thread has paid for itself many times over. For the most part, questions and comments have been sagacious and understandable. Most appreciated are the several good folks whose medical knowledge and/or application has served to enlighten us, from that perspective. 

 

What about that light at the end of the tunnel. Has it ever gotten close enough to require sunglasses, to at least make us squint? Or does it remain aloof, a tiny delusion in the distance unable to be reached any time soon? When will we be ready to get out and cruise, to see where we are compared to knowing where we were? At some point it will have to be the right time, even though it will not necessarily be the ideal time. Our first ocean voyages, from any port, anywhere, will not be without risk. When should it be decided that it is a risk worth taking?     

 

[Ken the cruiser]

6 minutes ago, Spif Barwunkel said:

 

What about that light at the end of the tunnel. Has it ever gotten close enough to require sunglasses, to at least make us squint? Or does it remain aloof, a tiny delusion in the distance unable to be reached any time soon? When will we be ready to get out and cruise, to see where we are compared to knowing where we were? At some point it will have to be the right time, even though it will not necessarily be the ideal time. Our first ocean voyages, from any port, anywhere, will not be without risk. When should it be decided that it is a risk worth taking?     

 

I think the startup 7 day “test” cruises out of St Maarten, Athens and Southampton starting in June with vaccines required for all adults provides a little bit of sunlight for future cruising if all goes well. At least I’m hoping they do. 

Edited April 21, 2021 by Ken the cruiser

[cruise kitty]

Pfizer trial update:  DH received his 3rd jab today, it was either 5mg or 10 mg of original Pfizer vaccine.... they are also doing a S. African variant study,  but he was not pulled into that one  :)

[hcat]

ASSOCIATED PRESS TODAY:

FDA Report on J and J facility

 

"The Baltimore factory contracted to make Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine was dirty, didn’t follow proper manufacturing procedures and had poorly trained staff, resulting in contamination of material that was going to be put in the shots, U.S. regulators said Wednesday."

 

After reading the article  summarizing the FDA report,  I am wondering if this might delay a release of  J and J  that was not destroyed or resumption of making it.?

I thought Dr Fauci said J and J might be back soon...wonder if this  is so,?

 

friend and her dtr were able to get Moderna appts in NY  for next week at a local pharmacy..they were very happy!.

[cangelmd]

8 hours ago, TeeRick said:

It is interesting that vaccines are being associated with every conceivable human affliction.   So people were free of all of these common problems until they got a COVID vaccine?  I know reasonable people that refuse to get vaccinated because the media keeps creating these health links to vaccinations.  With 100's of millions of people vaccinated to date, the link to these vaccines can be created for just about anything.  Nobody seems to understand or care about causative links.  Or know the difference with casual links or true correlations. 

 

By the way- my local reaction to Shringrix shots was much worse than my Moderna shots.  No contest!

Absolutely terrible article, poorly written and even worse editing. But, an interesting observational study and important for rheumatologists particularly. A 5X incidence of shingles means be aware. Also, if it bears out, brings up interesting questions about the immune system and how the immune response to the vaccine develops.

Anything that stresses a person can cause an outbreak of shingles. Shingles is chickenpox virus that lives in nerve cells in the spine after a childhood infection. I was taught, although this may have changed, that in some people, usually with some sort of stress to the body (maybe serious like cancer or autoimmune disease, maybe trivial like a bad cold), the balance of the immune system  gets out of whack, the virus starts to replicate and spread down the dermal nerves and the resulting disease state is shingles as opposed to the original chickenpox. Does something about developing the immune response to the vaccine pre-dispose you to shingles? Is it related to the autoimmune disease in particular - their immune responses are not exactly typical by definition? Is it just a coincidence - a very real possibility completely ignored by the authors of the article.

 

[Arizona Wildcat]

21 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

Absolutely terrible article, poorly written and even worse editing. But, an interesting observational study and important for rheumatologists particularly. A 5X incidence of shingles means be aware. Also, if it bears out, brings up interesting questions about the immune system and how the immune response to the vaccine develops.

Anything that stresses a person can cause an outbreak of shingles. Shingles is chickenpox virus that lives in nerve cells in the spine after a childhood infection. I was taught, although this may have changed, that in some people, usually with some sort of stress to the body (maybe serious like cancer or autoimmune disease, maybe trivial like a bad cold), the balance of the immune system  gets out of whack, the virus starts to replicate and spread down the dermal nerves and the resulting disease state is shingles as opposed to the original chickenpox. Does something about developing the immune response to the vaccine pre-dispose you to shingles? Is it related to the autoimmune disease in particular - their immune responses are not exactly typical by definition? Is it just a coincidence - a very real possibility completely ignored by the authors of the article.

 

Sadly today you can find information saying anything on the internet.  I learned I had purchased a bunch of bitcoin and was due a $1220 refund - but only if I sent the $24.95 wire fee along with my bank account details.

My shringrx  reaction was awful.  Down for 4 days, but better than risking an infection.

Let's remember shortly Covid in the US will fade into the background.  Other parts of the world are likely to take months or years.  We hope to cruise soon, but will gladly wait until we don't feel like human guinea pigs.  Summer of 2022 should work fine.

Meanwhile we think about the loss of some dozen friends who said Covid was fake and hope our grandkids living in Europe are well.

TeeRick  - thank you for your expertise.  Mine is from friends who entered pharma many years ago.

[Spif Barwunkel]

3 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

I think the startup 7 day “test” cruises out of St Maarten, Athens and Southampton starting in June with vaccines required for all adults provides a little bit of sunlight for future cruising if all goes well. At least I’m hoping they do. 

Very well could be, Ken. Royal's planned Nassau and Bimini cruises also, perhaps. And don't forget those few cruises in Europe and Asia. However, in order to make this work globally, every continent that sends cruise ships to sea with passengers onboard needs to participate in this exercise, from some port(s). That is not the case now. Local confidence and execution and success - within guidelines - serves to reassure those beyond borders that it can be done by everyone, correctly. 

 

That being said, do we proceed as planned even when the virus spikes, assured that "safe ships" will prevail in the sail? If you guarantee a cruise will they come, no matter the circumstances? Both passengers and crew, with eyes wide open? I don't mean to sound flippant here, but this is where we are. I look at it as a way to see just how well we've done, how the cruise lines and all ancillary services/personnel have dedicated themselves to the safest environment possible. We'll never know until we go. 

Edited April 22, 2021 by Spif Barwunkel

[Ken the cruiser]

1 hour ago, Spif Barwunkel said:

Very well could be, Ken. Royal's planned Nassau and Bimini cruises also, perhaps. And don't forget those few cruises in Europe and Asia. However, in order to make this work globally, every continent that sends cruise ships to sea with passengers onboard needs to participate in this exercise, from some port(s). That is not the case now. Local confidence and execution and success - within guidelines - serves to reassure those beyond borders that it can be done by everyone, correctly. 

 

That being said, do we proceed as planned even when the virus spikes, assured that "safe ships" will prevail in the sail? If you guarantee a cruise will they come, no matter the circumstances? Both passengers and crew, with eyes wide open? I don't mean to sound flippant here, but this is where we are. I look at it as a way to see just how well we've done, how the cruise lines and all ancillary services/personnel have dedicated themselves to the safest environment possible. We'll never know until we go. 

I still think vaccines are the key to cruising again for at least the next year or two to give potential passengers some piece of mind that they will be safe once onboard. To allow anything less may not be such a smart idea as attitudes might escalate a tad when folks decide they don’t want to wear a mask when in public spaces. I know, hard to believe some folks just don’t care what others think! 

 

But I also think it’s going to be a slow start, especially out of the US, and a lot will depend on 2 things. First, how well the first batch of startup cruises do in June in the UK, the Med and the Caribbean, and most importantly how well the cruise lines impress the CDC with their efforts to implement the Phase 2A protocols to include whatever compromises all parties agree to.

 

I have to admit, though, from over here in the peanut gallery, it will definitely be interesting to see where all this is at when July gets here, especially with regards to ships being able to start restricted cruises out of US ports. 

Edited April 22, 2021 by Ken the cruiser

[Spif Barwunkel]

9 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

I still think vaccines are the key to cruising again for at least the next year or two to give potential passengers some piece of mind that they will be safe once onboard. To allow anything less may not be such a smart idea as attitudes might escalate a tad when folks decide they don’t want to wear a mask when in public spaces. I know, hard to believe some folks just don’t care what others think! 

 

But I also think it’s going to be a slow start, especially out of the US, and a lot will depend on 2 things. First, how well the first batch of startup cruises do in June in the UK, the Med and the Caribbean, and most importantly how well the cruise lines impress the CDC with their efforts to implement the Phase 2A protocols to include whatever compromises all parties agree to.

 

I have to admit, though, from over here in the peanut gallery, it will definitely be interesting to see where all this is at when July gets here, especially with regards to ships being able to start restricted cruises out of US ports. 

No doubt, ships must be fully vaccinated and protocols in place. The re-start to restricted worldwide cruising will be a tremendous undertaking. When given the opportunity, let's hope we get it right.   

Edited April 22, 2021 by Spif Barwunkel

[TeeRick]

@Spif Barwunkel,

The effectiveness of the current vaccines is not in question and they will eventually get everything back to a new normal.  The light at the end of the tunnel?  Yes some of us who have been vaccinated are out the other side of the tunnel.  But we are now held up at the exit in full sunlight.  No place to go once we got there!  The exit of the USA tunnel is a step into a shark tank in the rest of the world.  Be aware and be careful.

 

Unfortunately the tunnel is still long and very dark for quite a bit of the world.  People need to realize this before traveling and cruising.  And plan and choose smartly and safely.  The strong virus surge going on in different parts of the world is happening with populations that have not made much progress with vaccinations- and due also to more infectious variant viruses.  And due to pandemic fatigue.  Even previously well controlled countries like Canada are having surges.  I cannot imagine what the surge in the US would be right now if we did not have 26% fully vaccinated or 41% with one dose.  There are 216 million doses delivered to date in the US.  The world is at 950 million doses to date.  India with the strongest virus surge currently only has 1.3% of its enormous population fully vaccinated.  So vaccines make a huge difference.  But the virus knows nothing about countries, borders, or ideologies.  It just feeds.  The vaccine stops the meal.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html

Edited April 22, 2021 by TeeRick

[Spif Barwunkel]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

@Spif Barwunkel,

The effectiveness of the current vaccines is not in question and they will eventually get everything back to a new normal.  The light at the end of the tunnel?  Yes some of us who have been vaccinated are out the other side of the tunnel.  But we are now held up at the exit in full sunlight.  No place to go once we got there!  The exit of the USA tunnel is a step into a shark tank in the rest of the world.  Be aware and be careful.

 

Unfortunately the tunnel is still long and very dark for quite a bit of the world.  People need to realize this before traveling and cruising.  And plan and choose smartly and safely.  The strong virus surge going on in different parts of the world is happening with populations that have not made much progress with vaccinations- and due also to more infectious variant viruses.  And due to pandemic fatigue.  Even previously well controlled countries like Canada are having surges.  I cannot imagine what the surge in the US would be right now if we did not have 26% fully vaccinated or 41% with one dose.  There are 216 million doses delivered to date in the US.  The world is at 950 million doses to date.  India with the strongest virus surge currently only has 1.3% of its enormous population fully vaccinated.  So vaccines make a huge difference.  But the virus knows nothing about countries, borders, or ideologies.  It just feeds.  The vaccine stops the meal.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html

And therein lies my point, TR. No matter who says what, and when, it will not necessarily be universal speak for all ears. Kind of the way it’s always been. Questionable decisions are not always made by imprudent people, nor, are smart decisions always made by perceptive folks. Somewhere in the midst of all the circumstances and the rhetoric there has to be a green flag waving. Question is, where?

Edited April 22, 2021 by Spif Barwunkel

[TeeRick]

22 minutes ago, Spif Barwunkel said:

And therein lies my point, TR. No matter who says what, and when, it will not necessarily be universal speak for all ears. Kind of the way it’s always been. Questionable decisions are not always made by imprudent people, nor, are smart decisions always made by perceptive folks. Somewhere in the midst of all the circumstances and the rhetoric there has to be a green flag waving. Question is, where?

I have said here on many posts that a fully vaccinated ship (all adults 16+ and crew) is probably the safest bubble you could be in at this point.  I do not think even a mask is necessary on board in this scenario.  I would wear a mask for travel, check in and all activities and excursions off the ship.    Let's get to your question - Where?  Right now?

 

My answer- A cruise to nowhere with no stops on a fully vaccinated ship would be extremely safe.   A cruise to say Iceland from the UK on a fully vaccinated, all adult ship would be very safe.  A cruise between Aus & NZ and Singapore would be extremely safe.  A cruise on APEX from Greece that allows kids?  Looking for trouble.  A cruise from St Maarten that allows kids?  Not for me right now.  My reasons for not going on APEX out of Greece or Millennium out of St. Maarten would not be out of concern for my own health risk.  But rather that there will be a decent chance that there is an outbreak and my cruise gets ruined.

[hcat]

15 hours ago, hcat said:

ASSOCIATED PRESS TODAY:

FDA Report on J and J facility

 

"The Baltimore factory contracted to make Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine was dirty, didn’t follow proper manufacturing procedures and had poorly trained staff, resulting in contamination of material that was going to be put in the shots, U.S. regulators said Wednesday."

 

After reading the article  summarizing the FDA report,  I am wondering if this might delay a release of  J and J  that was not destroyed or resumption of making it.?

I thought Dr Fauci said J and J might be back soon...wonder if this  is so,?

 

friend and her dtr were able to get Moderna appts in NY  for next week at a local pharmacy..they were very happy!.

 

Seems Dr Fauci did not predict correctly abt J and J coming back  on line soon.

 

 Yesterday it was announced that the  lab for J and J that was in issue has been shut down for now.   Will this slow things down overall ?  The one shot concept seems so perfect for many..students, homebound, etc..but for now a "no go".

 

NY has now announced walk ins will be acepted for the other vaccines at certain sites..in hopes more will take advantage if the shots

[4774Papa]

2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

@Spif Barwunkel,

The effectiveness of the current vaccines is not in question and they will eventually get everything back to a new normal.  The light at the end of the tunnel?  Yes some of us who have been vaccinated are out the other side of the tunnel.  But we are now held up at the exit in full sunlight.  No place to go once we got there!  The exit of the USA tunnel is a step into a shark tank in the rest of the world.  Be aware and be careful.

 

Unfortunately the tunnel is still long and very dark for quite a bit of the world.  People need to realize this before traveling and cruising.  And plan and choose smartly and safely.  The strong virus surge going on in different parts of the world is happening with populations that have not made much progress with vaccinations- and due also to more infectious variant viruses.  And due to pandemic fatigue.  Even previously well controlled countries like Canada are having surges.  I cannot imagine what the surge in the US would be right now if we did not have 26% fully vaccinated or 41% with one dose.  There are 216 million doses delivered to date in the US.  The world is at 950 million doses to date.  India with the strongest virus surge currently only has 1.3% of its enormous population fully vaccinated.  So vaccines make a huge difference.  But the virus knows nothing about countries, borders, or ideologies.  It just feeds.  The vaccine stops the meal.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html

TeeRick,

Agree, we are out of the tunnel, but our options are few at this moment.  While we are ready to go to Europe, we don't want to go there if the COVID19 uncertainties for travel could cause us to be quarantined, etc.  Even with the vaccine, we could still get COVID19 and with a positive COVID19, we wouldn't be able to return to the USA until quarantined. 

We are complete OK with cruising as long as passengers have vaccines or can prove antibodies due to having the virus in the past.  

It is ironic that we can't cruise to Alaska for two reasons:  1) Canada banned cruise ships for the season and 2) currently the CDC has a ban until Nov.  

Try to find a tour of a National Park in the USA this summer, or even make reservations there.  Full, Full and Full.  Disneyworld is open, etc.  yet cruises are BAD.  Sorry, don't agree.

[NMTraveller]

1 hour ago, 4774Papa said:

TeeRick,

Agree, we are out of the tunnel, but our options are few at this moment.  While we are ready to go to Europe, we don't want to go there if the COVID19 uncertainties for travel could cause us to be quarantined, etc.  Even with the vaccine, we could still get COVID19 and with a positive COVID19, we wouldn't be able to return to the USA until quarantined. 

We are complete OK with cruising as long as passengers have vaccines or can prove antibodies due to having the virus in the past.  

It is ironic that we can't cruise to Alaska for two reasons:  1) Canada banned cruise ships for the season and 2) currently the CDC has a ban until Nov.  

Try to find a tour of a National Park in the USA this summer, or even make reservations there.  Full, Full and Full.  Disneyworld is open, etc.  yet cruises are BAD.  Sorry, don't agree.

The National Park hotels book up about a year in advance.  Going to Glacier in Sept and Rocky Mountain in May.  Acadia in August.  You might be able to book a hotel outside of some of the National Parks and commute in every day.

 

Last year we went to Mount Rushmore, Yellowstone, Grand Teton, Vail, and Telluride.

Edited April 22, 2021 by NMTraveller

[mayleeman]

@4774Papa I wonder how many people staffing the places that are open are as disproportionately from 3rd World countries with low vax rates/availability as are those needed to crew cruise ships?

[NMTraveller]

3 hours ago, NMTraveller said:

The National Park hotels book up about a year in advance.  Going to Glacier in Sept and Rocky Mountain in May.  Acadia in August.  You might be able to book a hotel outside of some of the National Parks and commute in every day.

 

Last year we went to Mount Rushmore, Yellowstone, Grand Teton, Vail, and Telluride.

I forgot DC monuments in May and Niagara Falls in July.

[Jeremiah1212]

3 hours ago, mayleeman said:

@4774Papa I wonder how many people staffing the places that are open are as disproportionately from 3rd World countries with low vax rates/availability as are those needed to crew cruise ships?

 

And the fact that Disney World is something like 40sq miles in size, largely outdoors and not under CDC control.... Apples to ?????? something all together different.