Restarting will be harder for HAL than other lines, writer argues

[AtlantaCruiser72]

I think one thing MANY are forgetting with regards to restarting sailings - cruises don't exist in a vacuum.  Sailings have been published for the ENTIRE fleet since last year for Fall 2020-Summer 2021.  Advance bookings for 2021 were strong pre-Covid.  Most voluntary cancellations have been for 2020 sailings and there is still a LOT of business on the books for 2021 already.  Heck there's a LOT of 202 inventory that is already bookable.  Add to that re-bookings as FCC are starting to be re-issued and a cut to the HAL fleet of about 25% in terms of # of vessels/itineraries and their corresponding guests that need to be re-accommodated.  I don't think they will have trouble sailing a selection of their currently planned "shorter" voyages (For HAL that would be those mostly of 7-11 days on closed loop cruises) with a limited passenger capacity when they do slowly restart.  Ports may vary and they may even do ship swaps, but there are enough HAL cruisers with existing bookings to easily fill a 7 day Caribbean/Mexico sailing to 50% capacity on any ship in the fleet once they get the green light to sail.  This is why the cruise lines are cancelling in 30-60 day blocks rather than for 7-12 months out.

[drowelf]

The article makes some good points and ignores some of the reasons people, like me, sail HAL. The <=7 day itinerary the Caribbean or Mexico Riviera our not thing.  We like longer cruises to varied locations. Sure, we been to the Caribbean on 2 cruises, but only repeated one stop (Half-Moon). We like Europe and were starting to plan out Asia and the Pacific over the next few years. We are not big beach people so we are not really attracted to the Caribbean/Mexico, we are explorers. We've done DIY Train/Car Trips throughout Europe and England. 

 

I do believe that the industry is going to have to start with shorter cruises, just to work out the kinks of new procedure and policies. For us that mean we won't be cruising for a while. Whats the capacity going to be on the ships, social distancing, masks, etc.. Its all such a big unknown at this point. We have 3 cruises booked for 2021 and 1 for 2022. I only have about a 50% confidence that we will end up going on the first 2 in 2021 (Asia B2B), but are hopeful for the August 2021. 

 

Time will tell. I see lots of new about CCL shedding ships, but have not seen any comparable news about RCL or NCL doing the same? In the short term, shedding assets and conserving $$ is the smart move.

[Horizon chaser 1957]

I’m obviously missing something here. The article begins by acknowledging that HALs specialty is unique itineraries in other parts of the world. We all know that in a normal summer, there are several HAL ships that cruise Asia or Europe for a full season without returning to North America. We also know that the entire HAL fleet is currently cooling its heels outside of CDC jurisdictional waters.
Yet somehow, the author and everyone else takes for granted that HAL won’t start sailing again until it can sail out of of US ports, and more specifically Florida ports. Why would they even try competing for the ‘party til you puke’ crowd looking for a few days on floating amusement parks, when they already have clean ships positioned in regions with interesting itineraries?

Edited July 21, 2020 by Horizon chaser 1957

[AtlantaCruiser72]

21 minutes ago, Horizon chaser 1957 said:

I’m obviously missing something here. The article begins by acknowledging that HALs specialty is unique itineraries in other parts of the world. We all know that in a normal summer, there are several HAL ships that cruise Asia or Europe for a full season without returning to North America. We also know that the entire HAL fleet is currently cooling its heels outside of CDC jurisdictional waters.
Yet somehow, the author and everyone else takes for granted that HAL won’t start sailing again until it can sail out of of US ports, and more specifically Florida ports. Why would they even try competing for the ‘party til you puke’ crowd looking for a few days on floating amusement parks, when they already have clean ships positioned in regions with interesting itineraries?

simple - the vast majority of their consumer base (80%+)is located in the United States and Canada - mostly USA - and there are likely to be longer and more significant travel restrictions for guests coming from the USA via air to foreign embark ports. Many cruisers in the USA will drive to a port if they can or if air costs are too prohibitive, hence why lines like HAL would focus on cruises easily accessible to a North American clientele at first.  

[rkacruiser]

We, Americans:  Europe does not want us.  Australia and New Zealand don't want us.  The Bahamas don't want us.  Canada does not want us.  Whoever else, I don't know.

 

How are you enjoying being persona non grata?

 

 

[Mandalay1903]

1 hour ago, rkacruiser said:

We, Americans:  Europe does not want us.  Australia and New Zealand don't want us.  The Bahamas don't want us.  Canada does not want us.  Whoever else, I don't know.

 

How are you enjoying being persona non grata?

I agree. I don't think the Americans want each other either, why should anyone else?

Edited July 21, 2020 by Mandalay1903

[Horizon chaser 1957]

3 hours ago, AtlantaCruiser72 said:

simple - the vast majority of their consumer base (80%+)is located in the United States and Canada - mostly USA - and there are likely to be longer and more significant travel restrictions for guests coming from the USA via air to foreign embark ports. Many cruisers in the USA will drive to a port if they can or if air costs are too prohibitive, hence why lines like HAL would focus on cruises easily accessible to a North American clientele at first.  

True, In normal times. But if early circumstances are a choice between zero sailings out of Florida, or a winter season in Asia, it’s not a tough choice.

[iceman93]

I think the article was actually fairly well-written (and I can't say that about everything on that site).

 

What he fails to mention, and this may just be my opinion, is that by discarding their smallest ships HAL seems to be intentionally snubbing their core clientele.  Personally I think they would have better off re-flagging some of the new mega-ships to other brands under the CCL umbrella.  Then they could have focused on exactly the kinds of journeys described in this article, even bragging about how their smaller ships put you in contact with fewer people therefore less COVID-19 risk (which, while not exactly accurate, is no more misleading than anything else we're all being told about the virus).

[Mandalay1903]

25 minutes ago, iceman93 said:

What he fails to mention, and this may just be my opinion, is that by discarding their smallest ships HAL seems to be intentionally snubbing their core clientele.  Personally I think they would have better off re-flagging some of the new mega-ships to other brands under the CCL umbrella.  Then they could have focused on exactly the kinds of journeys described in this article, even bragging about how their smaller ships put you in contact with fewer people therefore less COVID-19 risk (which, while not exactly accurate, is no more misleading than anything else we're all being told about the virus).

I can agree with most of your opinion.  I for one feel snubbed by HAL ditching so many of their smaller ships. I've sailed on the Koningsdam twice and found it way too crowded, too impersonal, too few elevators, too difficult to find seating in public areas, lifeboats stowed in the wrong position, too wide for the Panama Canals. And did I mention too crowded?  I can't enjoy the Music Walk venues because you need to show up 45 minutes early to get a seat--and Music Walk is not why I cruise.  I've thought these Pinnacle Class ships have been too big all along.

 

Unless HAL cruising comes back with the great itineraries that we've known on its remaining small and mid-sized ships, I'll be looking for lines with smaller ships and avoiding anything north of Eurodam size. Yes, I understand the revenue/cost formula and the larger new ships' efficiency. While I've been very loyal to HAL, unless I can find great itineraries I will look at different lines even if they're more pricey.

[cruisemom42]

7 hours ago, iceman93 said:

What he fails to mention, and this may just be my opinion, is that by discarding their smallest ships HAL seems to be intentionally snubbing their core clientele.  

 

7 hours ago, Mandalay1903 said:

I for one feel snubbed by HAL ditching so many of their smaller ships. I've sailed on the Koningsdam twice and found it way too crowded, too impersonal, too few elevators, too difficult to find seating in public areas, lifeboats stowed in the wrong position, too wide for the Panama Canals. And did I mention too crowded?  

 

Unless HAL cruising comes back with the great itineraries that we've known on its remaining small and mid-sized ships, I'll be looking for lines with smaller ships and avoiding anything north of Eurodam size. Yes, I understand the revenue/cost formula and the larger new ships' efficiency. While I've been very loyal to HAL, unless I can find great itineraries I will look at different lines even if they're more pricey.

 

If anyone still harbored any lingering doubts (fantasies?) about what direction Carnival is headed in with HAL, these recent sales should have made it abundantly clear that Carnival sees HAL as a mass-market line that has to compete with her near-rivals Celebrity and Princess. Small ships are not in the future for HAL.

 

Carnival seems to think that they can position HAL's remaining ships at a competitive advantage because they are smaller than the competition. Well, I've got news for them. You can call a Rottweiler "small" compared to a Mastiff, but a Rottweiler is still a large dog. Similarly, I can't see a ship that carries more than 2500 passengers as anything but LARGE.

 

[kazu]

6 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

Carnival seems to think that they can position HAL's remaining ships at a competitive advantage because they are smaller than the competition. Well, I've got news for them. You can call a Rottweiler "small" compared to a Mastiff, but a Rottweiler is still a large dog.

 

LOL - that analogy is SO good 😉 😄 

 

Totally agree.

[KirkNC]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

 

If anyone still harbored any lingering doubts (fantasies?) about what direction Carnival is headed in with HAL, these recent sales should have made it abundantly clear that Carnival sees HAL as a mass-market line that has to compete with her near-rivals Celebrity and Princess. Small ships are not in the future for HAL.

 

Carnival seems to think that they can position HAL's remaining ships at a competitive advantage because they are smaller than the competition. Well, I've got news for them. You can call a Rottweiler "small" compared to a Mastiff, but a Rottweiler is still a large dog. Similarly, I can't see a ship that carries more than 2500 passengers as anything but LARGE.

 

I agree 100% which is why I don’t understand why they don’t just fold HAL into Princess.  If longer itineraries are a thing of the past, the only unique thing about HAL is the crew.  As much as I enjoy the crew, that’s not enough for me to sail on ships I don’t like.

[iancal]

I would certainly  not make that assumption that HAL wants to position itself post covid the same way it did pre covid.   Or appeal to and/or market to the same demographic. 

 

  I believe that there will be substantial changes across all lines.  Selling off four ships may only be the start.  HAL probably has other tentative plans depending on how long the covid stoppage and subsequent start up takes.  It is still early days...anything can happen.

 

 

Edited July 21, 2020 by iancal

[iancal]

Who knows, post covid HAL could come out with a new look and a new feel  along with a   'this is not your father's Buick" style  marketing campaign.

[AncientWanderer]

It'll probably be awhile until ships can/will be booked to full capacity.  I'm looking forward to that window of opportunity to travel on one of HAL's new, larger ships without a full load of passengers.  Could be really great.

[jimdee3636]

25 minutes ago, iancal said:

Who knows, post covid HAL could come out with a new look and a new feel  along with a   'this is not your father's Buick" style  marketing campaign.

The advertising slogan was actually "This is not your father's Oldsmobile," and the ad campaign failed miserably---GM ultimately threw in the towel and dumped the brand.

 

I think HAL would suffer a similar fate if Carnival's marketing people focus solely on winning over a young crowd. There's another saying in the car business that may be apt in this connection: "You can sell an old person a young person's car, but you can't sell a young person an old person's car." Yes, HAL needs to expand its existing clientele, but they have to do it gradually and seamlessly. HAL's existing clientele may be aging, but we ain't dead yet---and we still have money to spend!

[iancal]

Agreed, but no doubt HAL knows that by disposing of some or all of it's smaller ships that it will loose a portion of that that loyal following.   

 

The question that HAL has to consider is how many of those loyal customers will cruise again, how many will move to different cruise lines that offer smaller ships, and how many may actually shy away from world cruises based on some pre covid experiences of others on world cruises-HAL and other cruise lines. 

 

 Selling four (plus one) smaller ships is hardly moving seamlessly.  The market and the financials have forced their hand.  I would say the Princess and Celebrity have been doing it seamlessly in the past.  HAL...not so much.

Edited July 21, 2020 by iancal

[rkacruiser]

1 hour ago, iancal said:

Who knows, post covid HAL could come out with a new look and a new feel  along with a   'this is not your father's Buick" style  marketing campaign.

 

45 minutes ago, jimdee3636 said:

The advertising slogan was actually "This is not your father's Oldsmobile," and the ad campaign failed miserably---GM ultimately threw in the towel and dumped the brand.

 

8 months ago, I bought my 5th consecutive Buick.  Part of my salesman's spiel was that "this is a new generation of Buicks" and we are trying to appeal to customers that are of a wider age range than a majority of Buick buyers of the past.  A Buick sedan?  Their recent "flagship" sedan, the LaCrosse, ended production in early 2019.  My salesman had worked 16 years for the dealership and was concerned that there were so few different models to sell.  

 

iancal's comment is what I think is likely going to happen with HAL marketing.  Those of us who have sailed on HAL for decades are "fading out" or soon will be "fading out" of the cruising scene.  HAL is going to need some "new blood" booking the staterooms/suites on their ships regardless of how many there may still be.  

[slidergirl]

The point about doing short cruises and how that will hurt HAL made sense.  On those short cruises, other lines can shake out their new sanitation and safety protocols and see what's good and what has to change.  HAL would want to go all out with longer cruises at the start.  What is there is something wrong with the protocol?  Also, after so many people watching the catastrophic ending of all those long-term cruises, trying to find ports, people dying, even the US not wanting the ships back ("it'll hurt the count"), would HAL be able to fill ships from the start with people willing to do a 21 day cruise?  As longer cruises up the age of cruisers, some ports could be wary of allowing a HAL ship to dock and disgorge it's passengers.   It's a prickly situation if there is no vaccine or other protocol available.   Remember, the first vaccine publicly available may only be 40-50% effective.  Do you want to take a long cruise with  vaccine that is a 50/50 shot at protection?  

[Mandalay1903]

2 minutes ago, slidergirl said:

Remember, the first vaccine publicly available may only be 40-50% effective.  Do you want to take a long cruise with  vaccine that is a 50/50 shot at protection?

Agree. Is it also probable that vaccines in general are less effective on patients over a certain age, say 65 and older?  Further compounding the problem.

[DeeDee Groff]

13 hours ago, KirkNC said:

I agree 100% which is why I don’t understand why they don’t just fold HAL into Princess.  If longer itineraries are a thing of the past, the only unique thing about HAL is the crew.  As much as I enjoy the crew, that’s not enough for me to sail on ships I don’t like.

 

Totally agree!

[Aquahound]

13 hours ago, KirkNC said:

...the only unique thing about HAL is the crew.  

 

I don't even agree with that anymore.  Service on my last couple HAL cruises was good, but no better or no more special than any other line I've sailed.  

Edited July 22, 2020 by Aquahound

[KirkNC]

8 hours ago, Aquahound said:

 

I don't even agree with that anymore.  Service on my last couple HAL cruises was good, but no better or no more special than any other line I've sailed.  

I think part of that is staffing has been spread so thin.

[DFD1]

I expect HAL will lose fewer passengers with the sale of these four smaller ships than many imagine.  It's still HAL even if the ship is larger. Many long-standing HAL loyalites will continue to sail with HAL even on larger ships.

 

HAL may already know this by observing the number of long-time HAL passengers already sailing their larger ships.

 

I don't like it that the smaller ships are gone, but I'll probably still prefer HAL when things get going again, if they ever do.

 

IMO

[cruisemom42]

8 minutes ago, DFD1 said:

I expect HAL will lose fewer passengers with the sale of these four smaller ships than many imagine.  It's still HAL even if the ship is larger. Many long-standing HAL loyalites will continue to sail with HAL even on larger ships.

 

HAL may already know this by observing the number of long-time HAL passengers already sailing their larger ships.

 

I don't like it that the smaller ships are gone, but I'll probably still prefer HAL when things get going again, if they ever do.

 

IMO

 

Maybe it's just because I have always sailed with a lot of different lines, but I have never quite understood the "loyalist" HAL culture. It seems to me like people whinge more on this particular board about what things used to be like, yet will insist that HAL is still better than any other line out there (often without having sailed other lines in a good long while...). It's hard for my logical mind to reconcile.

 

Maybe I am just a strange mixture -- someone who picks itinerary over ship, yet still have definite preferences for certain things that are ship-related (mainly size).  I guess the two things go hand-in-hand to an extent. Smaller ships go to more interesting places. I am not interested in the Caribbean, Alaska, or Mexico.  I feel having mostly bigger ships will limit HAL's longer itineraries, just when I am approaching the age/stage in life where I might have been able to start doing some of them.

 

But in sailing many lines, including HAL's competitors Princess and Celebrity, over the years, I have not found one line to be significantly better in all areas by so much that I would not sail other lines. And even when I have been a very "loyal' patron of a line through many years, I will cut my losses when/if the line doesn't deliver what I look for any more -- for example Princess. One of the first lines I sailed with was Sitmar, which later became part of Princess, so up until my last cruise (2017) I had sailed with them for 40 or so years, off and on. But no more -- completely turned off by their large new class of ships.