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Return to cruising and COVID cases already

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1 hour ago, naxer said:

 

Well, it actually means the virus was detected after the round of testing.  In any case, testing and screening will help minimize the spread on cruise ships, but not prevent it.  The big question that cruise lines will have to answer in order to sail at least somewhat like they used to,  is what happens when it happens?

A negative test only means the virus was not detected.  It tells you that on "the results page" and that there are a lot of false negatives.

My husband had corona.  He had all the signs/symptoms and was hospitalized for "suspected corona".  He was tested twice; both results were negative.  To do the test properly the swab has to be deeply inserted in the nasal passage.  If it's not deep enough, the specimen may not have enough "virus" to be detected.  And, there are false positives if the sample is contaminated.

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10 minutes ago, MsTabbyKats said:

A negative test only means the virus was not detected.  It tells you that on "the results page" and that there are a lot of false negatives.

My husband had corona.  He had all the signs/symptoms and was hospitalized for "suspected corona".  He was tested twice; both results were negative.  To do the test properly the swab has to be deeply inserted in the nasal passage.  If it's not deep enough, the specimen may not have enough "virus" to be detected.  And, there are false positives if the sample is contaminated.

 

Yes.  We are agreeing.  I was trying to point out that the positive test detected it.  The positive test did not determine when it was initially introduced, for the reasons you mention.

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5 minutes ago, naxer said:

 

Yes.  We are agreeing.  I was trying to point out that the positive test detected it.  The positive test did not determine when it was initially introduced, for the reasons you mention.

Yes we are agreeing.  And, also, not useful if we want to return to "cruising as we knew it".

I don't want to get off topic, but the cruise in question was, imho, an experiment that failed.

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33 minutes ago, MsTabbyKats said:

Yes we are agreeing.  And, also, not useful if we want to return to "cruising as we knew it".

I don't want to get off topic, but the cruise in question was, imho, an experiment that failed.

 

Cruising will never again be as we knew it. Even before C19, some would pine/whine for the good old days. Cruising, like everything else, evolves. There is a new normal coming.

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23 hours ago, ObstructedView2 said:

This was imminent, assured, inescapable, inevitable, bound and sure to happen...

 

 

 

😷

  •  

Oh, don't be so wishy-washy - say what you mean!

😁

 

Anyway, what somewhat concerns me about this story, and all the major sports and other high-profile news stories, is how easy it seems to be to introduce the virus into a supposedly "safe" population, and then how quickly it spreads.

 

More details about the particulars of this case would be nice, but aren't really expected (by me, at least) - even if the cruiseline or local authorities find out who was the vector, and what failed to stop it, I doubt it will be made public until/unless they are sure they can stop it from happening next time.

 

1 hour ago, PhillyFan33579 said:


It’s naive to think this one specific cruise isn’t going to have larger implications across the cruise industry. 

 

Well, our mod @Host Carolyn is just trying to prevent this spiraling into a rehash of what has been discussed in all the other threads.  So to keep it on topic, we need to just touch on the particulars of this story, or other stories that arise from recent cruises where the virus is having a significant resurgence.

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14 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Cruising will never again be as we knew it. Even before C19, some would pine/whine for the good old days. Cruising, like everything else, evolves. There is a new normal coming.

It will.  I won't guess, but it will.  THIS will just be a bad memory.

 

Right after 9/11 they said "lower Manhattan would never be the same".  It came back even stronger.

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, cruizergal70 said:

No, it means that the virus was introduced after the round of testing. 

 

I don't understand your assertion that testing means nothing. The test worked. Folks took a test on a certain day. They changed the exposures, and now the virus managed to come in.

 

The questions are how were the passengers screened and will everyone have to be tested again mid-cruise after say...three days or so at see. Day one could indicate one thing while day four shows a different reality. 

 

Not accurate. You can be carrying the virus and have a negative test. It doesn't mean "nothing". But a negative test is definitely not a catch all indicator on whether or not you are infected. I'm my workplace liaison with the health department for COVID exposures. If there is an exposure it's an automatic isolation but they don't even ask the person to get tested unless they have symptoms. Their rationale is that you are very unlikely to have a positive test unless you have symptoms. A negative result in this situation gives you a false sense of confidence that you were not infected. 

Edited by sanger727

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Just now, MsTabbyKats said:

It will.  I won't guess, but it will.  THIS will just be a bad memory.

 

Right after 9/11 they said "lower Manhattan would never be the same".  It came back even stronger.

 

 

but different.

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Just now, sanger727 said:

 

Not accurate. You can be carrying the virus and have a negative test. 

 

Tests themselves are not always accurate. Many have high percentages of false negatives.

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18 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

Anyway, what somewhat concerns me about this story, and all the major sports and other high-profile news stories, is how easy it seems to be to introduce the virus into a supposedly "safe" population, and then how quickly it spreads.

 

More details about the particulars of this case would be nice, but aren't really expected (by me, at least) - even if the cruiseline or local authorities find out who was the vector, and what failed to stop it, I doubt it will be made public until/unless they are sure they can stop it from happening next time.

 

I agree with you.  Also, due to the nature of the disease, I don't think it can be stopped at this point in time, and will not be stoppable for a while.  So, if cruise lines want to cruise, it will be about how they can detect it, and contain it.  This is why I'm not blaming the cruise lines and the CDC for not finalizing protocols.  Under the best of circumstances, like in Norway, detection and containment are challenging.  

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https://www.npr.org/2020/08/03/898690128/we-have-made-mistakes-norway-cruise-company-reports-covid-19-outbreak?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=news
 

four hospitalized with COVID symptoms, extensive contact tracing ... Norway opening an investigation into how this came to pass.

"inexcusable" doesn't begin.

ramifications for the already-crippled U.S. cruise industry are monstrous. 

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27 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/03/898690128/we-have-made-mistakes-norway-cruise-company-reports-covid-19-outbreak?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=news
 

four hospitalized with COVID symptoms, extensive contact tracing ... Norway opening an investigation into how this came to pass.

"inexcusable" doesn't begin.

ramifications for the already-crippled U.S. cruise industry are monstrous. 

 

Norway has opened schools but so far, no alarming outbreaks. The US, as usual, is the opposite. IMO, the US cruise industry would do a better job of controlling C19 than US schools are.

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Count is up to 43 with covid now.  Very disheartening for cruising future.

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4 hours ago, pe4all said:

Count is up to 43 with covid now.  Very disheartening for cruising future.

 

Why? It's the whole reason for starting slow - obviously C19 is here for a very long time and cruise lines and others just have to learn how to live with it, while mitigating as much as possible. It's a learning process.

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26 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

. . . . just have to learn how to live with it, while mitigating as much as possible. It's a learning process.

True. One way to 'learn how to live with it" is to look at all the known ways to cure it, and not dismiss them. We are not at the point where we can dismiss data simply because we don't agree.  

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1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Why? It's the whole reason for starting slow - obviously C19 is here for a very long time and cruise lines and others just have to learn how to live with it, while mitigating as much as possible. It's a learning process.

Or the large cruise companys will simply go out of business or be cut down to a few ships

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Why? It's the whole reason for starting slow - obviously C19 is here for a very long time and cruise lines and others just have to learn how to live with it, while mitigating as much as possible. It's a learning process.

Trying to avoid being a number cruncher, but this question does lead there fairly directly.

 

Why is it disheartening?  Because that is about 10% of the total crew and pax.

 

10% on a megaship will be 600 plus.  There is no reason to expect it won't scale as such.  That is probably untenable by most outside observers.

 

For example, according to the Internet (so it must be true), one of the worst Norovirus outbreaks had the following numbers:

 

"On final count, 592 passengers and crew — 7 percent of the people on the ship"

 

That was a big deal.

 

So the perception might be that the incident rate would need to be really low, like under 1%.  Heck, some will posit that total cases per sailing should be single digits total people (i.e. "only 5 or 6 people came down with COVID").

 

I really do wish this would go away like magic, but it looks like it isn't.  And it will be up to humans to decide what is an acceptable risk factor, and to figure out how to behave en masse accordingly, if we want to ever return to cruising, and all the other normal things in life we used to take for granted.  If things continue as they are, my guess is we'll return to cruising after the disease has swept across the globe and most people will have had it and either lived or died, or have chosen to use an effective vaccine (that may or not exist - can't say right now).

 

EDIT: oh, and it isn't the "cruise lines and others just have to learn how to live with it" - it is the general population, and their "leaders", that will be the major deciders about such things.  Cruise lines can do nothing if the Gov't and/or the people don't want cruises to happen.

Edited by ProgRockCruiser

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2 hours ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

Trying to avoid being a number cruncher, but this question does lead there fairly directly.

 

 

Don't despair Captain Crunch. I would be more concerned with over time, do the numbers go up, down, or remain the same. If they go up or remain the same, there is a problem. If mitigation evolves in the right direction, the number should go down.

 

The people who refuse to follow guidelines should not be allowed to cruise and I wouldn't hold my breath on the government doing anything.

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9 hours ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

"On final count, 592 passengers and crew — 7 percent of the people on the ship"

 

That was a big deal.

Also, don’t forget to count the unknown amount of passengers who opted not to inform medical for whatever reason. On a previous cruise, I was experiencing Norovirus symptoms and did not bring it to medical’s attention. An extremely high number of passengers were feeling sick that cruise but were not quarantined to their rooms.

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This puts the nail in the coffin for cruises this year and possibly next year. It is going to be a long time before vaccines are available to the general public (there will be a shortage initially) so I don't expect conditions to improve any time soon.

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Take the Covid test on Monday.....Tuesday results say Negative....Take the test on Wednesday...Thursday's test say Positive.

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