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HalfHand

If not from the US. Where?

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This is a speculative post, I know some don't like those, no problem, just move on.

 

Facts being assumed that aren't in evidence. There will be no cruises in 2020 out of the US, after the latest Covid outbreak on a cruise ship the CDC is going to tighten restrictions even further. A vaccine will be ready by the end of this year. Distribution of the vaccine will take a large part of 2021, into the fall, maybe the whole year I've read in a few places. CDC will mandate a vaccine before being allowed to cruise.

 

When do the cruise lines do an end around? Stop cruising out of Florida and start cruising out of Cozumel. They have the docking room with 8, the Cancun airport is close and equipped for a large number of passengers. They would need to add a check in area at the port and that's about it. The Yucatan peninsula is geared for tourism already, fly in the day before, stay at a resort, get on a ship. Just like we do in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale.

 

Benefits for the cruise lines, cost savings would be number one. All you do is get on a ship in FL and immediately start heading south anyway, originating out of Cozumel saves money on fuel. Bypasses the CDC completely. This could be extremely bad if poorly handled, or work out well it handled well. Implement the guidelines that make sense, add a few of their own, like a full day of cleaning/dis-infecting before turn around (ie disembark Sat, next cruise doesn't leave until Sun). Omit the ones that may make sense but are close to impossible to achieve with no revenue stream (every crew member having their own cabin. Completely rebuild the ship, or cut crew staffing in half and passengers by 3/4 are about the only options). I'm not even sure this one makes sense. NCL has some ships with private crew cabins, but they share a bathroom, defeating the whole purpose.

 

Things have been regulated out of business before, so there is a history. These aren't American companies we are talking about. It will hurt the US embarkation ports, but really not that much. I would say the majority of cruisers still fly in the day of and leave the day returning.

 

At this point, options have to be being discussed behind closed doors. The most difficult part would be they would all have to do it together.

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Posted (edited)

I think you are missing the largest hurdle. With more and more caribbean islands requiring a negative COVID test within 72 hours of arrival, how would that be handled. Sure, if they can work out the logistics of boarding in Cozumel they could try that. I actually think Mexico doesn't have this requirement so that would be a good place to start. Perhaps they can find enough ports that don't have that requirement to put a couple itineraries together. But if they want to get into the ones that do they will have either do 3-4 day cruises only or give covid tests mid cruise. I think it's a disaster waiting to happen, and suspect the cruise lines agree, which is why they aren't going to do this. And just to put it out there, I would still have zero interest in going on one of these cruises. Until they can sort things out to do mainstream cruising or COVID has died down enough for that, cruising doesn't appeal to me. 

Edited by sanger727

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Forget the mechanics.

 

Do you really think it would be a good idea to get on a ship with a few thousand people who are so desperate to cruise that they want to ignore the warning of CDC and to side step efforts to protect you from infection?

 

Duh!

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Posted (edited)

OP:

 

You're idea effectively eliminates a significant portion of the mass market passenger base who would not fly to Mexico (or anywhere) or would not be willing to get passports required for driving/flying across the US border.

Also, eliminate almost the entire short haul Alaska market by losing Seattle or any other west coast US ports (and Canada since they are equally strict).

 

Kiss goodbye a significant portion of the bicoastal transoceanic premium/luxury business that likes to have pre/post cruise stays in "cosmo" coastal cities like NY, LA and SF....

 

Caribbean? Many countries will have the same public health requirements as the CDC (in fact, they may save themselves a lot of effort by just requiring ships to prove they have CDC approval. Cuba is already a "no go" and now you could add Puerto Rico.

 

The list goes on....... 

 

 

Edited by Flatbush Flyer

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Being speculative/hypothetical we will assume that you will be Passenger 0 .

 

Post here when you return.

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I love cruising and got a longing for an all inclusive ( even a 2nd rate one on a ship ), there is no way I'd entertain cruising vaccine or no vaccine.    The chances a vaccine will show high efficacy with confidence ( yes I'd take it ) with confidence of limited downside and given to enough people is NIL in the first half of 2021.

 

People are optimistic, why don't they give their realistic expectation, the reason they don't is it will be deflating.

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When it comes to my personal health and well being I fall on the side of caution and realism.

 

Why on earth would I consider doing business with a company that would purposely circumvent CDC  health/safety recommendation for their financial benefit?  I would not.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, HalfHand said:

This is a speculative post, I know some don't like those, no problem, just move on...

 

When do the cruise lines do an end around? Stop cruising out of Florida and start cruising out of Cozumel. They have the docking room with 8, the Cancun airport is close and equipped for a large number of passengers. They would need to add a check in area at the port and that's about it. The Yucatan peninsula is geared for tourism already, fly in the day before, stay at a resort, get on a ship. Just like we do in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale.

 

 

Maybe.  I think the logistics of implementing this would likely swamp the existing infrastructure at both the port and in the ferry service between Cozumel and the mainland.  

 

Some may want to try this, but all evidence suggests that cruising isn't ready to start again regardless of departure location.

 

Edited by SelectSys

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This eliminates ANY US port, whether embark or merely a port of call, as any entry into the US and the ship must meet CDC requirements.

 

You also have to figure in the cost of airfare to Mexico.

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22 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

 

Maybe.  I think the logistics of implementing this would likely swamp the existing infrastructure at both the port and in the ferry service between Cozumel and the mainland.  

 

Some may want to try this, but all evidence suggests that cruising isn't ready to start again regardless of departure location.

 

 

I agree.  But, let's give the OP some appreciation for another "out of the box" suggestion.  

 

Some of these "out of the boxers" of the past proved to have a good idea.  "The world is flat", some believed.    Christopher Columbus and many others proved that it was not.

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11 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

I agree.  But, let's give the OP some appreciation for another "out of the box" suggestion.  

 

Some of these "out of the boxers" of the past proved to have a good idea.  "The world is flat", some believed.    Christopher Columbus and many others proved that it was not.

Actually, been there and done that. November 2010 I sailed from Cozumel on a seven night cruise to Grand Cayman, Isla Paraiso, and 2 nights in Havana, Cuba on a lovely little Spanish based ship of 20,000 tonnes

 the Gemini, sister ship of Fred Olsen’s Braemar. No CDC restrictions because the company had no ships sail to any US ports. Charter flights brought European passengers directly to Cozumel’s airport which is only a 10 minute cab ride to most of the docks in San Miguel. So, it has been tried. But, it was a disastrous venture for Spain’s Happy Cruises as their Cuban cruises bankrupted the company after the first season. This cruise company had been started by ex Pullmantur people who had been let go when RCCl  took over Pullmantur and now it’s gone.

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Have you seen the COVID numbers coming out of Mexico? Worse than the U.S.A. 

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3 minutes ago, K32682 said:

Have you seen the COVID numbers coming out of Mexico? Worse than the U.S.A. 

 

Way worse than the US and completely under reported by the Mexican government.  They are now #3 in reported deaths and even may be getting close to US numbers when you bring in "unexpected" deaths.  In the end it will be horrible in terms of death. 

 

https://www.toledoblade.com/news/World/2020/08/05/pandemic-taking-hold-in-poorer-areas-mexico-city/stories/20200805064

 

With a lack of widespread testing, many deaths in Mexico remain uncounted. But a recently released report gives a sense of the scale of the outbreak: From April 19 to June 30, the capital city saw over 17,800 more deaths than usual.

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It's not just Mexico having unreported COVID cases.  It's world wide and even here in the USA.  M.I.T. estimates cases in the USA are under reported by a factor of almost 12.

 

Reported Covid Cases USA: just over 4.8 MILLION.......under reported 12 factor = 57 Million USA cases

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/medical-advances/505409-coronavirus-cases-may-be-widely-underreported

 

Reported COVID cases Mexico: 449,000....under reported factor 20 = 9 Million 

 https://www.coronatracker.com/country/mexico/

 

So if you think Mexico has mismanaged COVID, you can say the USA is a disaster with how our caseload and death rate is leading the world.

 

As far as the OP's idea, some small cruise lines may continue to sail just the Caribbean, but certainly not the mass lines we are accustomed to in our US ports.  It's a niche industry and will remain that way or go away entirely, it won't grow into a mass market line.

 

I recall one company that was sailing from Jamaica had 6 or 7 ports in Cuba on their itinerary.

 

 

 

 

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Our normal non cruise outside of USA trip is a sandals in Jamaica,  really good food choice of about 6 restaurants, premium drinks , no tipping allowed , swim up bars , but not cheap. 

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Those saying Mexico is hot right now, and I'm crazy for wanting to cruise. I think you missed the entire point of my post. If it hadn't been deleted you could all see that I was one of the few saying Covid was a big deal before it really started and folks started complaining about me and I received multiple warnings from the board. I'm not saying let's all jump on a cruise ship and find ways around the protections and etc.

 

The point of the post is, with what happened on the most recent cruise, the CDC is going to regulate the cruise industry out of business. Meaning impose such strict restrictions upon them that there is no way they could ever make a profit. I don't think anyone is going to be surprised if there are no cruises in 2020, and with the length of time it is naturally going to take to distribute a vaccine once one is found to work safely, the majority of 2021 cruising will be gone too. Keep in mind even this is pie in the sky speculation. Realistically it could be 2022 or 23 before cruising could happen out of the US and have nothing to do with true safety. The CDC is a government/political agency. Before COVID we all took the same risk that the cruise you were on wouldn't have a Noro outbreak. We have been on 20, never experienced it, but you see it happen on other cruises. Long before 2022 it is going to be brought mostly under control, there will be outbreaks though. 

 

I believe Dr. Fauci when he says Covid will likely never go away. I also believe that unless it does go completely away the CDC will never green light cruises from US ports (leaving from or visiting). 

 

Which leads us back to the title of this post. If not from the US, where? At some point that needs to be decided by all the cruise lines. Close their doors or come up with a plan B. 

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, HalfHand said:

Those saying Mexico is hot right now, and I'm crazy for wanting to cruise. I think you missed the entire point of my post. If it hadn't been deleted you could all see that I was one of the few saying Covid was a big deal before it really started and folks started complaining about me and I received multiple warnings from the board. I'm not saying let's all jump on a cruise ship and find ways around the protections and etc.

 

The point of the post is, with what happened on the most recent cruise, the CDC is going to regulate the cruise industry out of business. Meaning impose such strict restrictions upon them that there is no way they could ever make a profit. I don't think anyone is going to be surprised if there are no cruises in 2020, and with the length of time it is naturally going to take to distribute a vaccine once one is found to work safely, the majority of 2021 cruising will be gone too. Keep in mind even this is pie in the sky speculation. Realistically it could be 2022 or 23 before cruising could happen out of the US and have nothing to do with true safety. The CDC is a government/political agency. Before COVID we all took the same risk that the cruise you were on wouldn't have a Noro outbreak. We have been on 20, never experienced it, but you see it happen on other cruises. Long before 2022 it is going to be brought mostly under control, there will be outbreaks though. 

 

I believe Dr. Fauci when he says Covid will likely never go away. I also believe that unless it does go completely away the CDC will never green light cruises from US ports (leaving from or visiting). 

 

Which leads us back to the title of this post. If not from the US, where? At some point that needs to be decided by all the cruise lines. Close their doors or come up with a plan B. 

 

I find it difficult to respond to your post because I disagree with so many of your premises.

 

I don't think the CDC will "regulate the cruise industry out of business".  Stop blaming the CDC when the guilty parties are COVID-19 and the cruise lines themselves.  

 

The cruise lines have showed quite a bit of arrogance. Their behavior in March alone would be, I would think, enough to make most people doubt their willingness to be transparent and act in good faith. Since then, they have done literally almost nothing to dispel that image. They have done so very little to address the clear list of concerns and objectives that the CDC has issued that it's clear they have no intention of complying. Carnival even took its toys (ships) and left US waters for the time being rather than -- one can only assume --  deal with the CDC.

 

Now certain lines have tried to restart cruising in other countries, with fairly disastrous consequences:  Aida, Hurtigruten, Paul Gauguin and TUI have all faced issues where passengers, crew or both have tested positive for the virus, all within the last 7-10 days. The news points up the fact that these lines still have no real clue when it comes to being honest and transparent in their communications (to passengers and to authorities) and that they do not have a good, well-detailed plan for dealing with infections onboard once they occur. 

 

At this time, and until there are better options for preventing and treating COVID, I do not think it is safe to resume cruising, either here in the US or apparently elsewhere. The CDC is there to look out for our health and welfare. Their vessel sanitation program has been accepted for years as program that helps keep ships safe for passengers. Why such a backlash against them?  Some people act like a toddler who throws a temper tantrum against his mother for taking away a book of matches that he was playing with -- in other words, totally misplaced anger.  We are unhappy because we cannot cruise -- so we blame whoever is stopping us from cruising, regardless of whether it is for our own good.

 

If the cruise lines go bust now, so be it. When the pandemic ends, either due to changes in infectivity, mutation of the virus, vaccination, etc., then cruising will happen again because there will be demand for it. Or it won't. But if not, it won't be because the CDC regulated it out of existence. 

Edited by cruisemom42

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13 hours ago, K32682 said:

Have you seen the COVID numbers coming out of Mexico? Worse than the U.S.A. 

 

Anyone who is willing to cruise right now probably doesn't care...

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8 hours ago, HalfHand said:

Those saying Mexico is hot right now, and I'm crazy for wanting to cruise. I think you missed the entire point of my post. If it hadn't been deleted you could all see that I was one of the few saying Covid was a big deal before it really started and folks started complaining about me and I received multiple warnings from the board. I'm not saying let's all jump on a cruise ship and find ways around the protections and etc.

 

The point of the post is, with what happened on the most recent cruise, the CDC is going to regulate the cruise industry out of business. Meaning impose such strict restrictions upon them that there is no way they could ever make a profit. I don't think anyone is going to be surprised if there are no cruises in 2020, and with the length of time it is naturally going to take to distribute a vaccine once one is found to work safely, the majority of 2021 cruising will be gone too. Keep in mind even this is pie in the sky speculation. Realistically it could be 2022 or 23 before cruising could happen out of the US and have nothing to do with true safety. The CDC is a government/political agency. Before COVID we all took the same risk that the cruise you were on wouldn't have a Noro outbreak. We have been on 20, never experienced it, but you see it happen on other cruises. Long before 2022 it is going to be brought mostly under control, there will be outbreaks though. 

 

I believe Dr. Fauci when he says Covid will likely never go away. I also believe that unless it does go completely away the CDC will never green light cruises from US ports (leaving from or visiting). 

 

Which leads us back to the title of this post. If not from the US, where? At some point that needs to be decided by all the cruise lines. Close their doors or come up with a plan B. 

 

What is happening now will not exist forever, even if COVID never "goes away". I don't know when or exactly what the turning point will be, but i feel very sure that the way we are living are lives today is not permanent. There are plenty of diseases that exist and haven't "gone away" but through aggressive testing and/or vaccine development (even if not fully effective) have become manageable. Don't lose sight of the fact that this is a completely new disease and the US has only been devoting substantial resources to detecting/preventing/treating/managing for about 6 months. Give it 18 months and while it may still exist, the landscape will be completely different. 

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I'm confused. There are already cruise departure ports all over the world. In normal times,  US citizens would have access to any of these ports.

 

How is what you are suggesting any different? No one is going to create brand new departure ports for the sole benefit of US citizens circumventing health requirements.

 

Like I've said before, cruising is just not that important. 

 

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.......have to agree  'cruising is just not that important'.

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5 minutes ago, iancal said:

.......have to agree  'cruising is just not that important'.

I think cruising (and other related travel) is "important" enough to garner a significant amount of our disposable income annually.

 

Can we "live without it?" Reluctantly, yes. Fortunately, residing in Northern California, our "staycation" opportunities are terrific. But we have bemoaned the loss of two month-long cruises this year AND the pre/post-cruise land travel that would have accompanied them.

 

For many regular long cruisers (like us) who are able to travel extensively, in part because of the efficacy of cruise-anchored arrangements, any serious talk of future cruise industry "disaster" (vs "disruption") troubles us.

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10 hours ago, HalfHand said:

Those saying Mexico is hot right now, and I'm crazy for wanting to cruise. I think you missed the entire point of my post. If it hadn't been deleted you could all see that I was one of the few saying Covid was a big deal before it really started and folks started complaining about me and I received multiple warnings from the board. I'm not saying let's all jump on a cruise ship and find ways around the protections and etc.

 

The point of the post is, with what happened on the most recent cruise, the CDC is going to regulate the cruise industry out of business. Meaning impose such strict restrictions upon them that there is no way they could ever make a profit. I don't think anyone is going to be surprised if there are no cruises in 2020, and with the length of time it is naturally going to take to distribute a vaccine once one is found to work safely, the majority of 2021 cruising will be gone too. Keep in mind even this is pie in the sky speculation. Realistically it could be 2022 or 23 before cruising could happen out of the US and have nothing to do with true safety. The CDC is a government/political agency. Before COVID we all took the same risk that the cruise you were on wouldn't have a Noro outbreak. We have been on 20, never experienced it, but you see it happen on other cruises. Long before 2022 it is going to be brought mostly under control, there will be outbreaks though. 

 

I believe Dr. Fauci when he says Covid will likely never go away. I also believe that unless it does go completely away the CDC will never green light cruises from US ports (leaving from or visiting). 

 

Which leads us back to the title of this post. If not from the US, where? At some point that needs to be decided by all the cruise lines. Close their doors or come up with a plan B. 

Yes, it's all the CDC's fault - not that of cruise lines who failed to take precautions or avid cruisers who spread their contagion.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

......it won't be because the CDC regulated it out of existence. 

Plus 1 on this point.

 

I am reminded of the student staring at an "F" on a test and remarking to the professor: You failed me!"

To which the professor replies: "No - YOU failed you. I just write down the grades."

 

However, as for "heel dragging" by the cruise industry, I fear that CLIA may hurt as much as help the restart efforts of some cruise lines by requiring all to live with the shortcomings of the few.

 

I've reviewed the published Covid plans of our preferred cruise line (as well as having experienced their modifications of onboard public health practices earlier this year) and am satisfied that they have addressed the two dozen CDC concerns more than adequately. Building on their history of significant attention to maritime and food safety and the manageable size of its "smaller" ships, my preference would be distancing itself from CLIA.

 

At the same time, of course, I recognize the concept of "strength in numbers." But, I remain convinced that some lines (particularly in the premium/luxury industry segments) will emerge from the Covid mess "beaten but not broken" if only because their regular clientele will be able to absorb the cost increases required to keep the CDC happy and the ships afloat.

 

I cannot say the same for the mass market lines. And therein lies the conundrum of CLIA membership at this point in time.

Edited by Flatbush Flyer

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