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Dire financial predictions from Carnival Corp. Is RCI next?


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3 hours ago, JAMESCC said:

The problem is the flu does not kill 160 thousand people in a matter of 5 months. The flu also does not spread efficiently as Covid. Covid also has trucked right through the humid, hot summer which the regular flu does not.

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I guess you forgot about the Spanish Flu of 1918.

 

And while the regular flu hasn't killed 160k in 5 months, it's killed an average of 30k a year for over a hundred years in a row yet people don't bat an eye at it. So 30k a year, every year is okay but 160k is something to crap ourselves over??

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4 hours ago, Computer Nerd said:

I guess you forgot about the Spanish Flu of 1918.

 

And while the regular flu hasn't killed 160k in 5 months, it's killed an average of 30k a year for over a hundred years in a row yet people don't bat an eye at it. So 30k a year, every year is okay but 160k is something to crap ourselves over??

5  months is not a year, C19 looking at 300,000/12 months.

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25 minutes ago, TheMastodon said:


How many deaths under 70 vs over 70 years old?  Interesting data if you do some digging...

There was a chart posted in one of the threads on this forum. The majority of people (like 90%) who catch COVID and who are 90+ years old have almost 100% death rate. I mean its hard to have a high temperature for a week .. its hard for young people and its devastating for old people especially 

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6 hours ago, CruisingHogFan said:


Royal isn’t going to go “belly up”. Too valuable of a company just like Carnival and NCL. Maybe a merger or bankruptcy restructure at worst case and like I said above that won’t change existing bookings or FCC.
 

Since you are so concerned maybe future cruising isn’t for you and you should focus on something besides a cruise forum....

Don't be too sure. There are plenty of once valuable companies who have been around a lot longer than 50 years who went belly up even after being restructured or merged or bought out by another company. Look at what's happening to the retail industry. If cruising doesn't start up soon or if the new normal cruise ship experience isn't accepted it is very possible that it could fail. Also airbnb may take over the hotel/cruise industry the same way Amazon took over retail. In these uncertain times it's better to book a private residence than a hotel or cruise ship with restrictions and interaction with the general public.  Maybe in the land of misfits someone will be willing to buy a ship that can't sail but right now it's a poor investment with more debt than revenue.

Edited by Iamcruzin
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I guess you forgot about the Spanish Flu of 1918.
 
And while the regular flu hasn't killed 160k in 5 months, it's killed an average of 30k a year for over a hundred years in a row yet people don't bat an eye at it. So 30k a year, every year is okay but 160k is something to crap ourselves over??
Yes, I forgot about the Spanish flu of 1918, don't be ridiculous please.
Covid may have killed in just the US in less than a year 300 thousand people. Yeah that is a cause for concern.
The flu kills around 40,000 a year and that is no joke either. We do a flu shot now to help with that.
Don't tell me what "crap my pants"about. You and people like you that downplay this on daily basis are getting more and more people killed. Have another fit over face coverings at Walmart or the supermarket. They are both sad and funny at the same time.

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2 hours ago, mugtech said:

5  months is not a year, C19 looking at 300,000/12 months.

 

I don't think you can extrapolate that number, the current death rate doesn't support it

Edited by John&LaLa
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42 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

Yes, I forgot about the Spanish flu of 1918, don't be ridiculous please.

 

Don't be ridiculous???

 

The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. Lasting from February 1918 to April 1920, it infected 500 million people–about a third of the world's population at the time–in four successive waves. The death toll is typically estimated to have been somewhere between 17 million and 50 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.[4]

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Corona is peanuts compared to the Spanish Flu but I guess that doesn't fit your narrative. Crap you pants, don't crap your pants, I don't really care.I for one will not crap my pants and will continue living my life normally. If you want to hide in a basement that's your choice but life is passing you by while you do.

Incidentally, I don't get anyone killed. People take responsibility for their actions so if someone dies, the onus is on them.

Edited by Computer Nerd
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Don't be ridiculous???
 
The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. Lasting from February 1918 to April 1920, it infected 500 million people–about a third of the world's population at the time–in four successive waves. The death toll is typically estimated to have been somewhere between 17 million and 50 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.[4]
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Corona is peanuts compared to the Spanish Flu but I guess that doesn't fit your narrative.
Excuse me, what the hell is the difference? What does one have to do with the other? We are dealing with what is here now. The 1918 flu has no bearing today with what is going on now. This isn't a contest between which pandemic is worse.
I guess 160 thousand dead in 5-6 months are just peanuts. Go tell tell the countless families grieving that Covid is just peanuts.
The callousness I have witnessed over the last 5-6 months actually astounds me. I have heard everything from "they were old" anyway to "they had preexisting conditions" as if these people were all laying on their death bed, were gonna die in 4 weeks but Covid killed them a few weeks early.
Now like I said, keep downplaying it and cry about wearing a wittle face covering.


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1 hour ago, Roger88 said:

There was a chart posted in one of the threads on this forum. The majority of people (like 90%) who catch COVID and who are 90+ years old have almost 100% death rate. I mean its hard to have a high temperature for a week .. its hard for young people and its devastating for old people especially 

 

It is not hard for young people.  Quite the opposite

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1 hour ago, Iamcruzin said:

Don't be too sure. There are plenty of once valuable companies who have been around a lot longer than 50 years who went belly up even after being restructured or merged or bought out by another company. Look at what's happening to the retail industry. If cruising doesn't start up soon or if the new normal cruise ship experience isn't accepted it is very possible that it could fail. Also airbnb may take over the hotel/cruise industry the same way Amazon took over retail. In these uncertain times it's better to book a private residence than a hotel or cruise ship with restrictions and interaction with the general public.  Maybe in the land of misfits someone will be willing to buy a ship that can't sail but right now it's a poor investment with more debt than revenue.

Agree with you - Eastern Airlines is just one example of a large corporation that simply ceased to exist.

Right now, I don't think the cruise lines will simply go away, but the future is uncertain and anything is possible. Regardless of what the future has in store for cruising, just because someone has a future booking does not mean they will receive what they pay for.  In general I think those who totally deny the possibility of failure are probably the same ones who thought back in March that ships would be sailing again by June.

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8 hours ago, CruisingHogFan said:


Royal stated there is about $900 million in current bookings. Lots of people are still booking including me and have no concerns. Worst case is bankruptcy restructure if things stay shut down well into 2021 but that won’t change existing bookings.

 

More like worst best case. 

 

That's far from worst case, where everything is lost.

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55 minutes ago, mek said:

Agree with you - Eastern Airlines is just one example of a large corporation that simply ceased to exist.

Right now, I don't think the cruise lines will simply go away, but the future is uncertain and anything is possible. Regardless of what the future has in store for cruising, just because someone has a future booking does not mean they will receive what they pay for.  In general I think those who totally deny the possibility of failure are probably the same ones who thought back in March that ships would be sailing again by June.

Yes, absolutely and Lifting and Shifting through the decade isn't creating new revenue.  

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2 hours ago, mek said:

Agree with you - Eastern Airlines is just one example of a large corporation that simply ceased to exist.

Right now, I don't think the cruise lines will simply go away, but the future is uncertain and anything is possible. Regardless of what the future has in store for cruising, just because someone has a future booking does not mean they will receive what they pay for.  In general I think those who totally deny the possibility of failure are probably the same ones who thought back in March that ships would be sailing again by June.

 

Eastern, along with Braniff, Pan American, National and TWA are all blasts from the past.  Stockholders along with holders of future bookings stand to lose the most if their operations cease to exist. 

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When Eastern went under, its routes were taken over, its planes were taken over. Employees and shareholders suffered, but it wasn’t a bug deal to passengers. 
 

is there anything special about current Royal management. If they go broke and are bought about by someone else will it make a big difference? I personally don’t think so. 
 

I still hope that doesn’t happen, but it doesn’t keep me up at night. 

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3 hours ago, zekekelso said:

When Eastern went under, its routes were taken over, its planes were taken over. Employees and shareholders suffered, but it wasn’t a bug deal to passengers. 
 

is there anything special about current Royal management. If they go broke and are bought about by someone else will it make a big difference? I personally don’t think so. 
 

I still hope that doesn’t happen, but it doesn’t keep me up at night. 

True, but at that time there was a demand for those planes and routes.  What happens if that doesn't happen with the cruise lines?  What if demand is extremely low?  Who is going to buy all of those ships and even if they find a buyer, what kind of cruise experience will they offer?

Just because there is a pent up demand by some on CC doesn't mean the general public will feel the same way about jumping back into cruising.

 

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On local news last night they talked about a study they needed more volunteers. I'm considering it, but was busy today. Dont know how many saw the segment and volunteered.

 

It was for injections of something ... not covid, something that would produce antibodies to covid. Since they werent injecting covid I'd consider volunteering. Forget how many injections. Paid $120 per injection. See if you could build up enough antibodies to keep from getting it.

 

I'd like to be immune to covid.

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18 hours ago, CruisingHogFan said:


Royal isn’t going to go “belly up”. Too valuable of a company just like Carnival and NCL. Maybe a merger or bankruptcy restructure at worst case and like I said above that won’t change existing bookings or FCC.
 

Since you are so concerned maybe future cruising isn’t for you and you should focus on something besides a cruise forum....

 

LOL, I'm sure the CEO of Kodak thought that, Enron, and I think many a CEO come and gone at GE, IBM, that too.     And believe it or not they are in essential business or they thought., keep that thought, it'll be useful when they can't get credit, or can't get customers, or wake up and see the whole business model change, we are too big to belly up... nothing like arrogance to be the first failure to poison the so big and successful.  

 

You every hear the term "only the paranoid survive"

 

It's good entertainment here and some other forums, BTW I do plan to cruise, about once every year or every other year, probably next one 2022 at the current trend, sadly. 

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5 hours ago, zekekelso said:

When Eastern went under, its routes were taken over, its planes were taken over. Employees and shareholders suffered, but it wasn’t a bug deal to passengers. 
 

is there anything special about current Royal management. If they go broke and are bought about by someone else will it make a big difference? I personally don’t think so. 
 

I still hope that doesn’t happen, but it doesn’t keep me up at night. 

 

Airlines have been merged and bought out by other airlines in the past.   The problem with the cruise industry is that the three companies, RCG, Carnival and NCLH account for approximately 73.8% of the global cruise market share. 

 

The three companies together are burning through over 1 billion per month without revenue.  Don't know who that "someone" would be that could buy them out. 

 

"Carnival Corporation said that during its pause in guest operations, the monthly average cash burn rate for the second half of 2020 is estimated to be approximately US$ 650 million per month.

At Royal Caribbean Cruises, the company said it estimates its cash burn to be, on average, in the range of approximately US$ 250 million to US$ 290 million per month during a prolonged suspension of operations.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, which has the smallest fleet of the three companies, said its cash burn is approximately US$ 160 million per month during the suspension of operations. The average cash burn per ship per month is US$ 5.7 million."

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1 hour ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Airlines have been merged and bought out by other airlines in the past.   The problem with the cruise industry is that the three companies, RCG, Carnival and NCLH account for approximately 73.8% of the global cruise market share. 

 

The three companies together are burning through over 1 billion per month without revenue.  Don't know who that "someone" would be that could buy them out. 

 

"Carnival Corporation said that during its pause in guest operations, the monthly average cash burn rate for the second half of 2020 is estimated to be approximately US$ 650 million per month.

At Royal Caribbean Cruises, the company said it estimates its cash burn to be, on average, in the range of approximately US$ 250 million to US$ 290 million per month during a prolonged suspension of operations.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, which has the smallest fleet of the three companies, said its cash burn is approximately US$ 160 million per month during the suspension of operations. The average cash burn per ship per month is US$ 5.7 million."

 

In the old days you could count on the newly anointed rich country/states or business; oil countries ( nope ), China ( nope ), I don't think some leveraged buy of the mainstream line, that is busted business, but maybe the boutiques have a very good model, mainstream pretty dicey right now.  But maybe I can make enough in this wild market and go upscale. 

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33 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

In the old days you could count on the newly anointed rich country/states or business; oil countries ( nope ), China ( nope ), I don't think some leveraged buy of the mainstream line, that is busted business, but maybe the boutiques have a very good model, mainstream pretty dicey right now.  But maybe I can make enough in this wild market and go upscale. 

Who wants to buy an industry that is literally dead in the water?  You would just be taking on debt without any source of income. These aren't failed mismanaged companies. This is an industry that was forced to stop operating with no sign of reopening any time soon. 

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1 hour ago, chipmaster said:

 

In the old days you could count on the newly anointed rich country/states or business; oil countries ( nope ), China ( nope ), I don't think some leveraged buy of the mainstream line, that is busted business, but maybe the boutiques have a very good model, mainstream pretty dicey right now.  But maybe I can make enough in this wild market and go upscale. 


Maybe a Kardashian could step in. 

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