Dire financial predictions from Carnival Corp. Is RCI next?

[grandgeezer]

If this lasts much longer than the first of the year, I can see financial institutions being leery of lending them much more money. What would they do with a cruise ship that might have been put up for collateral if cruising is dead?

[ipeeinthepool]

8 hours ago, Iamcruzin said:

Who wants to buy an industry that is literally dead in the water?  You would just be taking on debt without any source of income. These aren't failed mismanaged companies. This is an industry that was forced to stop operating with no sign of reopening any time soon. 

 

That’s the point of bankruptcy.  A new group will come in and pay the current lenders pennies on the dollar and start out with a much reduced debt load.  Cruising will resume and it can be cheaper.

[livingonthebeach]

1 hour ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

That’s the point of bankruptcy.  A new group will come in and pay the current lenders pennies on the dollar and start out with a much reduced debt load.  Cruising will resume and it can be cheaper.

 

Even if the the cruise lines were given away for free and debt reduced to nil, there are very substantial operating costs. At the current cash burn rate, even subtracting debt service, not sure there will be any takers in an environment with so many uncertainties.  They are not "plug and play" companies, meaning they are very capital and labor intensive, requiring a high level of expertise and myriad components for it to all fall into place for a new buyer.   Sure, cruising in some form will come back but it might resurrect in a totally different form than as we knew it. 

[Iamcruzin]

49 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Even if the the cruise lines were given away for free and debt reduced to nil, there are very substantial operating costs. At the current cash burn rate, even subtracting debt service, not sure there will be any takers in an environment with so many uncertainties.  They are not "plug and play" companies, meaning they are very capital and labor intensive, requiring a high level of expertise and myriad components for it to all fall into place for a new buyer.   Sure, cruising in some form will come back but it might resurrect in a totally different form than as we knew it. 

That is what I was alluding to but wasn't able to get my point across as you have done. Thank you for that. 

[Oulton Jim]

This is quite apposite [from Cruise News]

 

Carnival Corporation said in a regulatory filing on Friday that as of July 31, 2020, the company had $7.9 billion in cash and cash equivalent balance available.

The nine-brand operation said earlier in July that during its pause in guest operations, the monthly average cash burn rate for the second half of 2020 is estimated to be approximately $650 million per month, which could give Carnival approximately 12 months of cash with ships out of operation

[livingonthebeach]

The three major cruise lines all have about a year of liquidity to satisfy their cash burn rate.  The problem lies when operations start again, with all the complications and uncertainties, coupled with reduced capacity, covid-19 issues, consumer confidence, consumer demand, port issues and mounting debt, how viable a business model will this be going forward?  

 

[ipeeinthepool]

2 hours ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Even if the the cruise lines were given away for free and debt reduced to nil, there are very substantial operating costs. At the current cash burn rate, even subtracting debt service, not sure there will be any takers in an environment with so many uncertainties.  They are not "plug and play" companies, meaning they are very capital and labor intensive, requiring a high level of expertise and myriad components for it to all fall into place for a new buyer.   Sure, cruising in some form will come back but it might resurrect in a totally different form than as we knew it. 

 

The cruise lines are no more complex or capital intensive than the airlines and most of the major airlines have gone bankrupt and never missed a beat.

[Milwaukee Eight]

13 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

The cruise lines are no more complex or capital intensive than the airlines and most of the major airlines have gone bankrupt and never missed a beat.

And most all modified their loyalty program and generally not to the paying public’s benefit. 
 

M8

[livingonthebeach]

20 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

The cruise lines are no more complex or capital intensive than the airlines and most of the major airlines have gone bankrupt and never missed a beat.

 

Although some airlines have gone bankrupt and ceased to exist, the majority have been bought out or merged with other healthier companies. 

 

The main difference is the airlines industry is more diverse and has many more players that make up total market share.  They are also considered an essential business and US airlines are eligible for government bailouts whereas cruise lines are not. 

[John&LaLa]

59 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

The cruise lines are no more complex or capital intensive than the airlines and most of the major airlines have gone bankrupt and never missed a beat.

 

Maybe, but the bankrupt airlines never ceased operations for a year, and they don't rely on a labor pool on the other side of the world

[yogimax]

38 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

They are also considered an essential business and US airlines are eligible for government bailouts whereas cruise lines are not. 

Bingo!

 

As much as we think they are "essential,"  they are not.  Taxpayers understand that grocery stores, hospitals and airlines are essential but not cruise lines, baseball teams or movie theaters.

[Goodtime Cruizin]

16 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Life will return to normal eventually. The 'new' normal is only a temporary fleeing moment in life. This gloom & doom mentality will not last forever. It won't be long before we're all watching Hollywood movies telling us about our lives and individual stories during Covid days. Cruising will exist. Ships will get bigger. 

The world has survived small pox, malaria, polio, HIV, and the list continues. And it came out better on the other side each time. So smile on brother and L&S.  We'll get there. 

[livingonthebeach]

11 minutes ago, yogimax said:

Bingo!

 

As much as we think they are "essential,"  they are not.  Taxpayers understand that grocery stores, hospitals and airlines are essential but not cruise lines, baseball teams or movie theaters.

 

Very true.  It is estimated that approximately 88% of Americans have flown in their lifetimes (and many on business trips), whereas only 17% have ever taken a cruise ship for leisure / vacation and of those only 7-8% have cruised within the last 3-5 years (would include the CC population and over 20% of CC have said they will not cruise or cut back on their cruising).  Quite a big difference in the number of passengers and business / essential vs leisure travel. 

 

Cruising will come back eventually although not necessarily in its present form.   The smaller luxury lines and expedition / specialty cruises as well as river  / lake cruises will probably fare better in the beginning.  Larger ships having to sail at full capacity in order to be cost effective and profitable might become stricken with economic obsolescence. 

Edited August 14, 2020 by livingonthebeach

[zekekelso]

39 minutes ago, Goodtime Cruizin said:

 

Life will return to normal eventually. The 'new' normal is only a temporary fleeing moment in life. This gloom & doom mentality will not last forever. It won't be long before we're all watching Hollywood movies telling us about our lives and individual stories during Covid days. Cruising will exist. Ships will get bigger. 

The world has survived small pox, malaria, polio, HIV, and the list continues. And it came out better on the other side each time. So smile on brother and L&S.  We'll get there. 

Nice post. But are you saying we’re going to need a bigger boat 🙂

[Goodtime Cruizin]

17 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Titanic dwarfs the Liberty. Humans have a need to always be moving forward, progressing, and reaching new heights. Once a vaccine is developed & distributed, us humans will be doing great things again. Fact.  

[Charles4515]

 
Very true.  It is estimated that approximately 88% of Americans have flown in their lifetimes (and many on business trips), whereas only 17% have ever taken a cruise ship for leisure / vacation and of those only 7-8% have cruised within the last 3-5 years (would include the CC population and over 20% of CC have said they will not cruise or cut back on their cruising).  Quite a big difference in the number of passengers and business / essential vs leisure travel. 
 
Cruising will come back eventually although not necessarily in its present form.   The smaller luxury lines and expedition / specialty cruises as well as river  / lake cruises will probably fare better in the beginning.  Larger ships having to sail at full capacity in order to be cost effective and profitable might become stricken with economic obsolescence. 

Yes true. Most of my friends, relatives, coworkers before I retired, neighbors and other acquaintances have never went on a cruise and most of them didn’t want to or plan to. Now that is even less so as a result of recent events and of those who have gone on a cruise a majority are not planning to cruise again anytime soon.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[livingonthebeach]

4 hours ago, Oulton Jim said:

This is quite apposite [from Cruise News]

 

Carnival Corporation said in a regulatory filing on Friday that as of July 31, 2020, the company had $7.9 billion in cash and cash equivalent balance available.

The nine-brand operation said earlier in July that during its pause in guest operations, the monthly average cash burn rate for the second half of 2020 is estimated to be approximately $650 million per month, which could give Carnival approximately 12 months of cash with ships out of operation

Also they added this:

 

“Friday's filing also stated that if Carnival is unable to re-commence normal operations in the near term, it may be out of compliance with a maintenance covenant in certain debt facilities as of May 31, 2021.“

 

Carnival’s Chief Financial Officer just resigned and is leaving to another industry.  Maybe he knows something we don’t.

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/people-opinions/carnival-cruise-line-evpcfo-jim-heaney-leaving

Edited August 14, 2020 by livingonthebeach

[yogimax]

1 hour ago, livingonthebeach said:

Carnival’s Chief Financial Officer just resigned and is leaving to another industry.  Maybe he knows something we don’t.

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/people-opinions/carnival-cruise-line-evpcfo-jim-heaney-leaving

Hmm... isn't there some saying that talks about rats and ships?

[drsel]

Hmm... isn't there some saying that talks about rats and ships?

The saying goes that rats are the first to leave a sinking ship and the captain will sink with the ship.
But that was not the case in Costa Concordia

[yogimax]

9 minutes ago, drsel said:

The saying goes that rats are the first to leave a sinking ship and the captain will sink with the ship.
But that was not the case in Costa Concordia

Now, now, let's not blame the poor captain if he accidentally fell into a lifeboat.

[drsel]

Yes poor fellow, I think he is still in jail

[John&LaLa]

3 hours ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Cruising will come back eventually although not necessarily in its present form.   The smaller luxury lines and expedition / specialty cruises as well as river  / lake cruises will probably fare better in the beginning.  Larger ships having to sail at full capacity in order to be cost effective and profitable might become stricken with economic obsolescence. 

 

Quite the opposite feeling from Royal's top brass. The big ships are more efficient, produce higher onboard revenue, and can run at much lower occupancy rates

[drsel]

And small luxury lines and expedition Cruises are really too expensive.

Some are even over 3000 dollars per person per night.

Like Celebrity flora on 23rd may 2021

 

 

[firefly333]

Reading about gammacore. Some device for migraine head aches. FDAA has given it authorization for helping with air breathing problems associated with covid and can be used at home. Just hold it up to your neck for 2 minutes. Trials going on now for more permanent FDA authorization. Opens air pathways.    .. not a vaccine or cure, but yet another treatment to help. 

[firefly333]

4 hours ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Although some airlines have gone bankrupt and ceased to exist, the majority have been bought out or merged with other healthier companies. 

 

The main difference is the airlines industry is more diverse and has many more players that make up total market share.  They are also considered an essential business and US airlines are eligible for government bailouts whereas cruise lines are not. 

I used to work for braniff airlines. Dont know if you are old enough to remember them.

 

We ran the computers for 5 different airlines out of braniff computer room. Yes, always merges and changes in any industry.