Who will still cruise with Princess...I think many in these groups won’t

[jonikal]

19 minutes ago, cltnccruisers said:

  I understand that the cruise industry is unique in some ways but it does seem like they are being left to swing in the wind.

 

It makes one wonder which way the wind is swinging at the CDC.  

[npcl]

1 hour ago, cltnccruisers said:

Read an article yesterday from CC about cruise company execs and some pols pushing back against the CDC in a virtual meeting.  The point seemed to be that the cruise companies have been working their butts off to comply with the CDC requirements but that the CDC is not working with them in good faith.  I've had that opinion for some time - especially since other sections of the travel and tourism industry are being allowed to restart.  I understand that the cruise industry is unique in some ways but it does seem like they are being left to swing in the wind.

you might look at the Miami Hearald article about that meeting. The meeting was basically a cheering session for the cruise llines and port district. But they neglected to mention that the cruise lines have not even submitted their plans to the CDC for restarting. That the team RCL and NCLH form to create theirs will not even finish their work for a couple of weeks.

 

It certainly did not address how they plan to restart.

[caribill]

On 9/12/2020 at 11:12 AM, jonikal said:

 

It seems that much of the trepidation about cruising is really dependent on getting a viable, safe vaccine.  Let's hope that this will happen in a timely but prudent manner for those of us planning to sail in 2021.

 

 

 

https://www.newsweek.com/2020/09/25/when-will-there-covid-19-vaccine-should-you-trust-that-its-safe-1531604.html

 

May be a paywall for some. The highlights:

 

The race for a vaccine took shape early on. By July, Moderna, the Massachusetts drug company, moved the vaccine candidate that it was developing with nearly $1 billion dollars from the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) into phase 3 clinical trials. Phase 3 is the gold standard in medicine, the final leg of testing a new vaccine has to complete before the Food and Drug Administration decides if its benefits are sufficiently large and its risks sufficiently small to justify releasing it to millions—perhaps billions—of otherwise healthy people. To persuade the FDA and the rest of the medical community, Moderna will enroll 30,000 people, give some of them the vaccine and the rest a placebo, and wait until 150 of them come down with COVID-19.

 

Still, there's no telling when ongoing trials will end. Scientists first have to collect enough data to be confident that they know what the risks and benefits are. Unlike, say, cancer drugs, where patients can often face an early death unless something is done to halt the progress of the disease, vaccines are given to millions of healthy people, which puts a premium on safety. Moderna, for instance, has enrolled about 22,000 people in its trial so far; the FDA requires data on 150 participants who fall ill with COVID-19. How quickly that happens depends on how prevalent the virus is in those areas where clinical trials are taking place—a trial might go more quickly in Arizona, where many people are infected, than in Maine, where infection rates are lower.

 

It also depends on how effective the vaccine is. A vaccine that protects 80 percent of the people who are inoculated would generate statistically significant results more slowly, because fewer people would get sick, than a trial that only protects half. For COVID-19, the FDA is aiming for 50 percent reduction in the disease, which effectively means it would accept anything above 30 percent. By comparison, the annual influenza vaccines are usually about 60 percent effective, which doesn't give iron-clad protection.

 

 

[npcl]

5 hours ago, caribill said:

 

 

https://www.newsweek.com/2020/09/25/when-will-there-covid-19-vaccine-should-you-trust-that-its-safe-1531604.html

 

May be a paywall for some. The highlights:

 

The race for a vaccine took shape early on. By July, Moderna, the Massachusetts drug company, moved the vaccine candidate that it was developing with nearly $1 billion dollars from the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) into phase 3 clinical trials. Phase 3 is the gold standard in medicine, the final leg of testing a new vaccine has to complete before the Food and Drug Administration decides if its benefits are sufficiently large and its risks sufficiently small to justify releasing it to millions—perhaps billions—of otherwise healthy people. To persuade the FDA and the rest of the medical community, Moderna will enroll 30,000 people, give some of them the vaccine and the rest a placebo, and wait until 150 of them come down with COVID-19.

 

Still, there's no telling when ongoing trials will end. Scientists first have to collect enough data to be confident that they know what the risks and benefits are. Unlike, say, cancer drugs, where patients can often face an early death unless something is done to halt the progress of the disease, vaccines are given to millions of healthy people, which puts a premium on safety. Moderna, for instance, has enrolled about 22,000 people in its trial so far; the FDA requires data on 150 participants who fall ill with COVID-19. How quickly that happens depends on how prevalent the virus is in those areas where clinical trials are taking place—a trial might go more quickly in Arizona, where many people are infected, than in Maine, where infection rates are lower.

 

It also depends on how effective the vaccine is. A vaccine that protects 80 percent of the people who are inoculated would generate statistically significant results more slowly, because fewer people would get sick, than a trial that only protects half. For COVID-19, the FDA is aiming for 50 percent reduction in the disease, which effectively means it would accept anything above 30 percent. By comparison, the annual influenza vaccines are usually about 60 percent effective, which doesn't give iron-clad protection.

 

 

not quite right. the number of patients that need to be infected depends upon in which are the infections occur. if you had 75 patients get Ill and were in the placebo arm, the data and safety monitoring board would most likely stop the trial for excellent efficacy results. and the fda would accept that.

 

the 150 number is the estimate for when the blind will be broken if the DSMB does not call for it to be ended earlier.

 

if you have a vaccine that is very good the balance of patients between arms will make that clear.

 

it is only if the results are marginal will it take the full trial number of illness.

 

keep in mind also the criteria is for cases developing symptoms. asymptomatic cases do not count.

Edited September 16, 2020 by npcl

[twangster]

On 9/14/2020 at 10:39 AM, npcl said:

you might look at the Miami Hearald article about that meeting. The meeting was basically a cheering session for the cruise llines and port district. But they neglected to mention that the cruise lines have not even submitted their plans to the CDC for restarting. That the team RCL and NCLH form to create theirs will not even finish their work for a couple of weeks.

 

It certainly did not address how they plan to restart.

 

The Herald isn't known for being cruise friendly.  

 

Nonetheless you are correct, it was a cheering session because as foreign corporations cruise lines have little lobbying power.  By engaging local American businesses that live off the cruise industry those businesses can have a voice that is louder than all the foreign cruise lines combined.

 

The RCCL/NCLH "Healthy Sail Panel" is holding off publishing until the CDC open public commenting period is closed.     If they publish now then many in the public will flood the CDC with more opinions and thoughts about the Healthy Sail Panel approach.  "I must be able to book my own private excursions" and so on.  The CDC is already going to use the 3,000+ public comments as a reason to slow down and review them all.  Why add another 2,000+ comments to that pile on someone's desk?

 

The conference call/cheerleading session was one small step to start some momentum with a group of American businesses that can attempt to influence regulators.  

[KeepCalmBearOn]

13 hours ago, twangster said:

Nonetheless you are correct, it was a cheering session because as foreign corporations cruise lines have little lobbying power.  By engaging local American businesses that live off the cruise industry those businesses can have a voice that is louder than all the foreign cruise lines combined.

 

Foreign companies?

 

Norwegian Cruise Lines HQ (NYSE - NCLH)

7665 Corporate Center Drive
Miami, FL 33126

 

Royal Caribbean Group HQ (NYSE - RCL)
1050 Caribbean Way
Miami, FL 33132-2096

 

Carnival Cruise Lines HQ (NYSE - CCL)

3655 NW 87th Avenue.

Miami, FL 33178

 

Disney Cruise Lines HQ (NYSE - DIS)

200 Celebration Pl,

Kissimmee, FL 34747

 

These companies employ tens of thousands of Americans in their corporate and subsidiary headquarters, plus those they employ at port locations; 246,000 at last count.

[twangster]

14 minutes ago, scottca075 said:

 

Foreign companies?

 

Norwegian Cruise Lines HQ (NYSE - NCLH)

7665 Corporate Center Drive
Miami, FL 33126

 

 

Royal Caribbean Group HQ (NYSE - RCL)
1050 Caribbean Way
Miami, FL 33132-2096

 

 

Carnival Cruise Lines HQ (NYSE - CCL)

3655 NW 87th Avenue.

 

Miami, FL 33178

 

 

 

Disney Cruise Lines HQ (NYSE - DIS)

 

200 Celebration Pl,

Kissimmee, FL 34747

 

These companies employ tens of thousands of Americans in their corporate and subsidiary headquarters, plus those they employ at port locations; 246,000 at last count.

 

Carnival Corp incorporated in Panama.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings incorporated in Bermuda.

Royal Caribbean Group incorporated in Liberia.

Disney Cruise Lines domiciled in London, England.

 

They have a headquarter building in the US but they are not US corporations.  They are foreign companies.

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, twangster said:

 

Carnival Corp incorporated in Panama.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings incorporated in Bermuda.

Royal Caribbean Group incorporated in Liberia.

Disney Cruise Lines domiciled in London, England.

 

They have a headquarter building in the US but they are not US corporations.  They are foreign companies.

But they do have US citizens as employees in those headquarters. And at the ports in the US there are also many whose livelihood is dependent on the cruise lines.

[twangster]

2 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

But they do have US citizens as employees in those headquarters. And at the ports in the US there are also many whose livelihood is dependent on the cruise lines.

 

Lots of Americans are out of work due to the pandemic.  The financial impact of the cruise industry especially to Florida is well known and documented.  So far that hasn't appeared to be enough to catch the attention of any government.  The CDC doesn't consider financial or economic impacts, they only consider public health.   Absent of external intervention the CDC isn't going to change it's cruise ship order.  

 

The cruise lines received no bailout money because they are not US corporations.  That also hinders there lobbying capabilities.  

 

The cheering session was in some ways a rallying call to begin to organize the folks that depend on the cruise industry.  If those individuals are not more vocal there is little chance there will be change anytime soon.

[KeepCalmBearOn]

7 hours ago, twangster said:

They have a headquarter building in the US but they are not US corporations.  They are foreign companies.

 

That's like saying Google isn't a California company because they are incorporated in Delaware.

 

These companies employ tens of thousands of Americans in their corporate and subsidiary headquarters, plus those they employ at port locations; 246,000 full time at last count, 420,000 including part time.

 

That is a lot of federal payroll tax, SSI tax, port taxes, property taxes on the HQs of the various divisions.

 

In 2018 on $11 billion revenue, Amazon got a tax rebate of $129 million, while Carnival paid $71 million on $3 billion.

[npcl]

6 hours ago, ontheweb said:

But they do have US citizens as employees in those headquarters. And at the ports in the US there are also many whose livelihood is dependent on the cruise lines.

the cruise industry in florida contributed about 3% of floridas economy. the dollar number sounds large, but compared to the rest not so much. Florida would be better served getting the land side running smoothly, then worry about the cruise ship portion.

[twangster]

21 minutes ago, scottca075 said:

That's like saying Google isn't a California company because they are incorporated in Delaware.

 

Slight difference,  Google still pays US corporate taxes based on standard federal rates regardless what state they are incorporated in.  

 

Cruise lines pay next to no US corporate tax.  It's estimated they pay 0.8% based on the HQ buildings and the meager business that is actually done on US soil.  Compare that to an average US company who pay US corporate tax at an average rate of 21%.  Their most significant assets, the place where the actual revenue of the business is generated is on the ships that are not taxed in the US.  

 

I understand that HQ employees pay income tax and those same employees contribute to the economy of the communities they live in.  That's well understood.  

 

I also understand that many US companies use offshore tax rules to reduce their tax obligation whenever possible.  The cruise industry is the master of this technique.  Few US companies come close to achieving the tax dodge that cruise line do.  

[npcl]

23 hours ago, twangster said:

 

The Herald isn't known for being cruise friendly.  

 

Nonetheless you are correct, it was a cheering session because as foreign corporations cruise lines have little lobbying power.  By engaging local American businesses that live off the cruise industry those businesses can have a voice that is louder than all the foreign cruise lines combined.

 

The RCCL/NCLH "Healthy Sail Panel" is holding off publishing until the CDC open public commenting period is closed.     If they publish now then many in the public will flood the CDC with more opinions and thoughts about the Healthy Sail Panel approach.  "I must be able to book my own private excursions" and so on.  The CDC is already going to use the 3,000+ public comments as a reason to slow down and review them all.  Why add another 2,000+ comments to that pile on someone's desk?

 

The conference call/cheerleading session was one small step to start some momentum with a group of American businesses that can attempt to influence regulators.  

The Herald does seem to do a good job of digging out the facts. Many of which the cruise industry would prefer remain hidden.

 

Many of the comments will not take time to review because they do not address any of the asked question and as such as not considered relevent.

Edited September 17, 2020 by npcl

[ontheweb]

10 hours ago, npcl said:

the cruise industry in florida contributed about 3% of floridas economy. the dollar number sounds large, but compared to the rest not so much. Florida would be better served getting the land side running smoothly, then worry about the cruise ship portion.

The two senators who represent the state of Florida in the Senate seem to feel the cruise industry is more important to Florida than that.

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/legal-regulatory/florida-senators-introduce-set-sail-safely-act-toward-resuming-us-cruises

[npcl]

6 hours ago, ontheweb said:

The two senators who represent the state of Florida in the Senate seem to feel the cruise industry is more important to Florida than that.

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/legal-regulatory/florida-senators-introduce-set-sail-safely-act-toward-resuming-us-cruises

I would wager that it will not get much support.

[caribill]

18 hours ago, ontheweb said:

The two senators who represent the state of Florida in the Senate seem to feel the cruise industry is more important to Florida than that.

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/legal-regulatory/florida-senators-introduce-set-sail-safely-act-toward-resuming-us-cruises

 

12 hours ago, npcl said:

I would wager that it will not get much support.

 

I would hope it does not pass. The CDC is working with the cruise lines for the restarting of cruises in USA waters.

 

If this bill passes, everything would grind to a halt until "a Maritime Task Force, in coordination with a Private Sector Advisory Committee, to address the related health, safety, security and logistical issues" is set up. That could take many months with the speed that such government groups are usually ready to start to begin to go to work.

[ontheweb]

16 hours ago, npcl said:

I would wager that it will not get much support.

It's probably for show. Show the constituents we are doing something. I think they would be extremely surprised if it even came up for a vote.

[suzyed]

On 9/12/2020 at 12:12 PM, jonikal said:

 

It seems that much of the trepidation about cruising is really dependent on getting a viable, safe vaccine.  Let's hope that this will happen in a timely but prudent manner for those of us planning to sail in 2021. It may still require the ships to take a certain number of precautions such as social distancing and masks in crowded areas, but hopefully we will be permitted to do our own independent touring at ports of call, which some cruise lines have disallowed for now.  I have not seen any guideline on this from Princess, but may have just missed it. While we would still opt to return to cruising, being limited exclusively to the ships' tours would definitely be a negative for us.

 

Would be a negative but would it prevent you from doing so? 
We probably would sail anyway given those restrictions if it meant we were being safer.

 

[jonikal]

2 hours ago, suzyed said:

Would be a negative but would it prevent you from doing so? 
We probably would sail anyway given those restrictions if it meant we were being safer.

 

 

We would still sail if ship tours were the only way to go onshore.  

[ram290]

On 9/12/2020 at 11:36 PM, npcl said:

depends upon the efficacy of the vaccine. even at 70%  you have 30% with the potential to bring the virus on board, and pass it to the others were it was not effective.

 

it also depends upon what the trials end up showing.

The Influenza vaccine only has a 65% efficacy, and does not protect against all flu strains.  Suggest getting in better health now and keeping that health before any travel.

[mellon1]

On 8/11/2020 at 12:32 PM, PescadoAmarillo said:

I won’t be cruising with Princess again until we are refunded the money we are owed. Six months, numerous emails and phone calls, and still waiting for a refund unrelated to COVID. 

You are die hard cruisers.  Will you not cruise at all?  Or just not with Princess?

[Ombud]

@PescadoAmarillo if you still haven't been fully refunded try emailing kbaldwin@princesscruises.com or csteinke@princesscruises.com.  Kim called me, got it resolved in less than 2 weeks, and gave a follow-up call. I had been waiting 5.5 months on 1 & 4.5 months on another. 

[PescadoAmarillo]

41 minutes ago, Ombud said:

@PescadoAmarillo if you still haven't been fully refunded try emailing kbaldwin@princesscruises.com or csteinke@princesscruises.com.  Kim called me, got it resolved in less than 2 weeks, and gave a follow-up call. I had been waiting 5.5 months on 1 & 4.5 months on another. 

Thank you Ombud!  I posted ion another thread that we finally received our refund last week, thanks to Audrey in Customer Relations. I was given the impression that there aren’t many people still left in that department, which is a little scary. But we finally got what was due to us.  Thanks again!

 

We are booked to sail again in December 2021. I’d guess there’s about a 20% chance that everything will fall into place to allow that to happen. 

[ontheweb]

14 hours ago, ram290 said:

The Influenza vaccine only has a 65% efficacy, and does not protect against all flu strains.  Suggest getting in better health now and keeping that health before any travel.

I heard one optimistic prediction that the flu season would be not as bad as usual because the things like masks and social distancing people are doing to prevent Covid would also lessen the chance of catching the regular flu.

[rabin1]

I just wonder how long once they do approve a vaccine how long it will take to make enough for everyone in the world, and how long to vaccinate everyone, and who might not want to get one? No one is even mentioning those things.

 

I have a cruise booked on Dec 20 on Princess thru the canal. I am not holding out much hope. Our ports here in south Florida are not open and I would NOT go on a vacation wearing a mask even with my 3 compromised immune problems. However if the ship sails I sail............if not I sit here in Ft. Lauderdale and be where millions wish they could be.............lol

 

Kathy

Edited September 19, 2020 by rabin1