When Will We Feel Safe to Cruise Again

[caribill]

4 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

Then why do most vaccines takes 5 years or more?  Phase 3 testing last 3-4 months with these expected vaccines if nothing goes wrong.  The vaccine gets approved because of no short term side effects.  Have we really tested the vaccine for long term side effects?   This is my greatest worry.  

 

The Moderna study is designed for 3 or 4 years (I forget which) of Phase 3 testing. So 3-4 months of testing is only looking at preliminary results.

 

As I understand it, Moderna has not been successful in recruiting all of the Phase 3 participants they need over all the demographics involved.

 

Also, Phase 3 testing has not started with pregnant women or young children.

 

So at best when one or more vaccines are approved after 3-4 months of testing we will know that there are no serious safety issues for some demographics within 3-4 months of getting the dose(s).

 

To me, one thing that hampers getting results that soon is that people in the Phase 3 tests are likely not going through life as they used to before the Pandemic. How can we tell how effective a vaccine is if the participants are working from home, not attending movies, concerts or other crowded indoor events and also avoiding being in crowded restaurants or bars in addition to wearing masks when in public and maintaining social distancing when necessary?

[Luckiestmanonearth]

8 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

Are you saying that UV light doesn't kill the virus?  Google it.  Throw a cup of water against the wind and see how droplets behave.  What happens to steam (aerosols) when  it rises up?  It goes in the direction of the wind.  Of course, when you are on a cruise ship going 15 knots, no breeze ever touches you on the LIdo deck.

again, wow.  Where do I start?  You’re talking about Coronavirus of which no one seems to have much information about so these general claims don’t have any validity or we’d be out of this pandemic, wouldn’t we.

Edited October 12, 2020 by Luckiestmanonearth

[Doubt It]

5 hours ago, caribill said:

 

The Moderna study is designed for 3 or 4 years (I forget which) of Phase 3 testing. So 3-4 months of testing is only looking at preliminary results.

 

As I understand it, Moderna has not been successful in recruiting all of the Phase 3 participants they need over all the demographics involved.

 

Also, Phase 3 testing has not started with pregnant women or young children.

 

So at best when one or more vaccines are approved after 3-4 months of testing we will know that there are no serious safety issues for some demographics within 3-4 months of getting the dose(s).

 

To me, one thing that hampers getting results that soon is that people in the Phase 3 tests are likely not going through life as they used to before the Pandemic. How can we tell how effective a vaccine is if the participants are working from home, not attending movies, concerts or other crowded indoor events and also avoiding being in crowded restaurants or bars in addition to wearing masks when in public and maintaining social distancing when necessary?

 

caribill - you are TOTALLY correct in your last paragraph. I never thought of this lethal failure of testing, and lethal it is.

 

Totally true and with your permission I am going to raise this point in every conversation I have live or on social media.

 

Thank you so very much for your common sense - we need more of this.

[ksheehan16]

It is amazing to me how afraid people are of something that is about as deadly (really less deadly for most age groups) as the annual flu.

[cruisemom42]

46 minutes ago, ksheehan16 said:

It is amazing to me how afraid people are of something that is about as deadly (really less deadly for most age groups) as the annual flu.

 

1. To date, COVID has caused significantly greater mortality than flu.
2. Many of those who cruise frequently happen to be in the higher age groups, which do have increased mortality.
3. It is not merely the threat of the disease, but how it will be handled onboard. I do not wish to be stuck in a cabin for weeks (Diamond Princess) or making my way home unexpectedly from half a world away (Ruby Princess) or sailing the seas while passengers are dying while port after port refuse entry to my ship (Amsterdam, Westerdam).

[caribill]

38 minutes ago, ksheehan16 said:

It is amazing to me how afraid people are of something that is about as deadly (really less deadly for most age groups) as the annual flu.

 

Over 7 million people in the USA have been known to have contracted Coviod-19 in less than 9 months with 215,000 deaths,  a death rate of 2.9%.

 

Since 2010 the CDC reports at most there were 45 million people in the USA that contracted the flu over a 12 month period with fewer than 61,000 deaths. In a year with only 9 million cases, deaths were around 12,000.

 

The new corona virus is significantly more deadly than the flu.

[msmoger]

1 hour ago, ksheehan16 said:

It is amazing to me how afraid people are of something that is about as deadly (really less deadly for most age groups) as the annual flu.

 

14 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

1. To date, COVID has caused significantly greater mortality than flu.
2. Many of those who cruise frequently happen to be in the higher age groups, which do have increased mortality.
3. It is not merely the threat of the disease, but how it will be handled onboard. I do not wish to be stuck in a cabin for weeks (Diamond Princess) or making my way home unexpectedly from half a world away (Ruby Princess) or sailing the seas while passengers are dying while port after port refuse entry to my ship (Amsterdam, Westerdam).

 

8 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

Over 7 million people in the USA have been known to have contracted Coviod-19 in less than 9 months with 215,000 deaths,  a death rate of 2.9%.

 

Since 2010 the CDC reports at most there were 45 million people in the USA that contracted the flu over a 12 month period with fewer than 61,000 deaths. In a year with only 9 million cases, deaths were around 12,000.

 

The new corona virus is significantly more deadly than the flu.

 

In addition to these two accurate posts, the long term after effects for many folks that are infected is much greater than is typically the case with the flu.

[ksheehan16]

Facts do not matter anymore. The world has gone insane.

[Steelers36]

7 hours ago, caribill said:

Proper and well designed trials are needed to do that including different dosage levels and as stand alone treatments or in combination with other treatments.

Did I suggest otherwise?  😉

[memoak]

In addition to death the Covid brings additional dangers of long term issues with lung issues etc which the common flu doesn’t. Got my flu shot on Friday and looking forward to a Covid vaccine sometime next year 

[deadzone1003]

2 hours ago, caribill said:

 

Over 7 million people in the USA have been known to have contracted Coviod-19 in less than 9 months with 215,000 deaths,  a death rate of 2.9%.

 

Since 2010 the CDC reports at most there were 45 million people in the USA that contracted the flu over a 12 month period with fewer than 61,000 deaths. In a year with only 9 million cases, deaths were around 12,000.

 

The new corona virus is significantly more deadly than the flu.

The CDC reported about 6% of the coronavirus deaths were due to only to covid 19.  The rest died with the virus, but died because of other ailments and causes.  I am not saying covid 19 is not as dangerous as people say, it is if you have comorbities especially if it affects your immune system. In the past if someone died of a heart attack when they were suffering from the flu, how did they count his death?  I think the death certificate would show heart attack.  Now, if that same person had covid 19  and died of a heart attack, I would think his death certificate would show covid 19 with a contributing cause, heart attack.  It is this data rigging that is not allowing us to truly assess what is really happening.   

[cruisemom42]

46 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

The CDC reported about 6% of the coronavirus deaths were due to only to covid 19.  The rest died with the virus, but died because of other ailments and causes.  I am not saying covid 19 is not as dangerous as people say, it is if you have comorbities especially if it affects your immune system. In the past if someone died of a heart attack when they were suffering from the flu, how did they count his death?  I think the death certificate would show heart attack.  Now, if that same person had covid 19  and died of a heart attack, I would think his death certificate would show covid 19 with a contributing cause, heart attack.  It is this data rigging that is not allowing us to truly assess what is really happening.   

 

And if you believe this is true, then how do you account for the excess mortality in 2020 in the US?  We can already show that the number of deaths in the United States through July 2020 is 8 percent to 12 percent higher than it would have been if the coronavirus pandemic had never happened. That's at least 164,937 deaths above the number expected for the first seven months of the year.  (And likely more.)

 

All those extra deaths are coming from somewhere. They are not just being "invented".

 

Edited October 12, 2020 by cruisemom42

[caribill]

7 hours ago, Steelers36 said:

Did I suggest otherwise?  😉

No

[PrincessLuver]

11 hours ago, ksheehan16 said:

Facts do not matter anymore. The world has gone insane.

No, just the US.... rest of world seems to believe the science of Covid - 19.....and our numbers and deaths just keep going up....hard to believe that people’s attitudes will change once they are on a cruise ship....I am sure there will be a lot of resistance to whatever health protocols Princess institutes to prevent Covid on their ships.....leopards just do not change their spots.....

 

 

[Paula_MacFan]

25 minutes ago, PrincessLuver said:

No, just the US.... rest of world seems to believe the science of Covid - 19.....and our numbers and deaths just keep going up....hard to believe that people’s attitudes will change once they are on a cruise ship....I am sure there will be a lot of resistance to whatever health protocols Princess institutes to prevent Covid on their ships.....leopards just do not change their spots.....

 

 

 

Last night 60 Minutes had a story on the current state of Covid. Takeaway was 1-2 YEARS before everyone has vaccine, and every doctor replied the same when asked if they'd rather have a vaccine or a mask -- they said mask.  Yet some people on Cruise Critic think things will be back to 'normal' in a couple months.  

[Birdieman1]

Maybe when I can put my kids miniature cruise ship in the bathtub and watch it float around

[deadzone1003]

8 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

And if you believe this is true, then how do you account for the excess mortality in 2020 in the US?  We can already show that the number of deaths in the United States through July 2020 is 8 percent to 12 percent higher than it would have been if the coronavirus pandemic had never happened. That's at least 164,937 deaths above the number expected for the first seven months of the year.  (And likely more.)

 

All those extra deaths are coming from somewhere. They are not just being "invented".

 

I see you are referring to a report from Robert D. Fricker Jr. of Virginia Tech who came up with these numbers.  How many of these deaths were nursing home deaths?  Patients average less than 6 months in a nursing home before going to their next stop, morgue or funeral parlor.  I am not saying that the death rate did not increase.  It probably did.  I'm just skeptical about his numbers.  The average person in a nursing home who dies of covid 19 in March probably would not have made it past September because of their comorbitites.  Also, the great fudge factor is "the number expected" - was it his expections or someone else's?  Unless you can see the actual sources and the math that produces these numbers, you are assuming that the source is trustworthy.

[HappyInVan]

42 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

I see you are referring to a report from Robert D. Fricker Jr. of Virginia Tech who came up with these numbers.  How many of these deaths were nursing home deaths?  Patients average less than 6 months in a nursing home before going to their next stop, morgue or funeral parlor.  I am not saying that the death rate did not increase.  It probably did....

 

Here's a nice writeup with several useful links.

 

https://www.sciencealert.com/2020-has-killed-up-to-200-000-extra-people-in-the-us-so-far/amp

 

BTW, the number of nursing home deaths isn't the issue. It's about the number of deaths that exceed historical experience. Couple that with what we are being told by medical personnel about the numbers of ER admittance. And, the coincidence that those with confirmed infections are in ICU and dying.

 

The USA is in a  sad state when people refuse to believe rather standard statistical analysis, and the doctors. The same is being done in other countries, and lessons are being learned.

 

 

Edited October 13, 2020 by HappyInVan

[nocl]

14 hours ago, Doubt It said:

 

caribill - you are TOTALLY correct in your last paragraph. I never thought of this lethal failure of testing, and lethal it is.

 

Totally true and with your permission I am going to raise this point in every conversation I have live or on social media.

 

Thank you so very much for your common sense - we need more of this.

When you set up a clinical trial like this, all participants are educated in best methods for avoiding getting the illness (just as HIV clinical trial participants where instructed in best practices).  It is done that way because you do not want people to get infected, the trial is intended to look at those that catch the illness in spite of the best practices to avoid it.  It is part of ethical clinical trial design and execution. 

 

Just because someone is in a trial it does not mean that you want them to place them at any more risk than is absolutely necessary.  That is why the trial is so large.  The measure of effectiveness in a double blinded two arm clinical trial is not based upon the total number that get ill, but instead it is a comparison of the number that get sick in the placebo arm compared to the treated arm.  You really need only a relatively small number of ill participants to determine efficacy.  I think with these trials it is around 150 with minimal efficacy occurring if no more than 50 in the treated arm get ill compared to 100 in the placebo arm.  That would be 50% efficacy, at that efficacy they would need the full number before breaking the blind.  They might break it earlier if the data and safety monitoring board sees a much higher ratio of those in the placebo arm getting sick compared to the treated arm.  That would signify a better efficacy rate.

 

The following link goes to a site that gives a good over view on the ethics in clinical trials.

https://clinicalcenter.nih.gov/recruit/ethics.html

[nocl]

11 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

The CDC reported about 6% of the coronavirus deaths were due to only to covid 19.  The rest died with the virus, but died because of other ailments and causes.  I am not saying covid 19 is not as dangerous as people say, it is if you have comorbities especially if it affects your immune system. In the past if someone died of a heart attack when they were suffering from the flu, how did they count his death?  I think the death certificate would show heart attack.  Now, if that same person had covid 19  and died of a heart attack, I would think his death certificate would show covid 19 with a contributing cause, heart attack.  It is this data rigging that is not allowing us to truly assess what is really happening.   

 

The information you are referring to is from the multiple cause of death database (the wonder system).  This information provides valuable medical information to show how an illness effects the body and actually causes death. The surprise in the data in not that 94% showed multiple causes, but more that the remaining 6% did not.  That 6% would indicate incomplete reporting.

 

First of all COVID-19 as an infectious virus kills by causing failure in bodily functions, just having the COVID virus in ones body would not cause death, unless the infection caused one or more of the bodies system to fail.  Those failures can be things like pneumonia, or stroke, or organ failure due to inflammation, etc.  If a patient has COVID and due to the blood clots caused by the illness has a stroke and dies the report will show both COVID and stroke. If a person has COVID and as a result of the illness develops pneumonia  the report will show both.  An so on for a whole range of ways that the virus can effect the human body.  You will see the same thing for any other disease.

 

This data is important because it shows how the disease progresses and impacts the human body and how it can lead to death in a percentage of those that get sick.

 

The deaths listed were in most cases (in a large database there are always a few reporting errors, but usually a relatively low number) cause by COVID, the difference is exactly in how COVID caused death and which part of the body failed. As mentioned earlier if the 6% represents anything, it is that those were not reported with complete information.

Edited October 13, 2020 by nocl

[sfaaa]

2 hours ago, PrincessLuver said:

No, just the US.... rest of world seems to believe the science of Covid - 19.....and our numbers and deaths just keep going up....hard to believe that people’s attitudes will change once they are on a cruise ship....I am sure there will be a lot of resistance to whatever health protocols Princess institutes to prevent Covid on their ships.....leopards just do not change their spots.....

 

 

Not according to MSC. Everyone on the ship has been cooperative and abided by the COVID 19 rules. The few that broke the rules were sent packing and kicked off the ship 

[mevs904]

9 minutes ago, sfaaa said:

Not according to MSC. Everyone on the ship has been cooperative and abided by the COVID 19 rules. The few that broke the rules were sent packing and kicked off the ship 

True, but MSC passengers are from Europe at this time and Europeans are taking the virus more seriously.  Not sure if American passengers would be as cooperative.

[Expat Cruise]

Ready to cruise now. Really find it hard to beleive that the World leaders have allowed Covid-19 to shut down the World.  Would have done all our Princess Cruises if not cancelled this year. Once cruising is back and we can travel to the ports we are back.  And yes would take a cruise to nowhere, two weeks with no ports would be great.

[caribill]

3 hours ago, nocl said:

When you set up a clinical trial like this, all participants are educated in best methods for avoiding getting the illness (just as HIV clinical trial participants where instructed in best practices).  It is done that way because you do not want people to get infected, the trial is intended to look at those that catch the illness in spite of the best practices to avoid it.  It is part of ethical clinical trial design and execution. 

 

Just because someone is in a trial it does not mean that you want them to place them at any more risk than is absolutely necessary. 

 

But in trials for vaccines developed in the past, do you think participants were told to not go to their normal workplace, not to use public transportation, don't go to a movie, sporting event, play or concert? After all, that would have been some of the ways to avoid the diseases that those vaccines were for.

[Doubt It]

5 hours ago, caribill said:

 

But in trials for vaccines developed in the past, do you think participants were told to not go to their normal workplace, not to use public transportation, don't go to a movie, sporting event, play or concert? After all, that would have been some of the ways to avoid the diseases that those vaccines were for.

 

caribill, exactly.

 

I posted the item of trial participants not having the normal exposure to the world that was before the virus and therefore losing valuable info on resistance, on the Oceania board. 

 

Got some feedback about the testing method those with the vaccine and those with the placebo....still do not buy it at all.

 

I am not a slave to science in this virus matter, despite being married to a PHD scientist, who is not buying all the lockdowns either amongst other items.