Jump to content

When Will We Feel Safe to Cruise Again


Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, caribill said:

 

Although in a bankruptcy creditors may have to take a loss, customers' deposits and credits will still be there.

 

As with airline bankruptcies in the past for airlines that survived, stockholders and creditors did have a loss, but all customer paid tickets and frequent flier points were intact.

 

To cause customers to loss their deposits, payments and FCCs would mean lost customers which would threaten any cruise line survival.

That is my expectation as well.  I would expect that if a cruise line were to declare BK it would be when there is a clear road map for them back to normal operation. I think that the cruise lines would have to be able to demonstrate that they can return before debt holder would buy into a restructuring BK.

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, nocl said:

That is my expectation as well.  I would expect that if a cruise line were to declare BK it would be when there is a clear road map for them back to normal operation. I think that the cruise lines would have to be able to demonstrate that they can return before debt holder would buy into a restructuring BK.

 

One thing different about CCL Corp and many other companies that have gone bankrupt in the past.

 

One family owns about a quarter of all CCL stock and their family fortune is basically tied to the success of the Corporation. I do not expect a CCL Corp bankruptcy to happen.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, caribill said:

 

Although in a bankruptcy creditors may have to take a loss, customers' deposits and credits will still be there.

 

 

 

This time, it is different. It's not just a single cruise company in trouble. The entire industry is in trouble because demand will shrink substantially for several year.

 

CCL has already began cutting capacity, by selling/retiring many ships. However, I am open to the idea that we may lose several brands. Would a conglomerate like CCL be willing to credit deposits and FCC to other brands?

 

These are early days. We will have a clearer picture by the spring of 2021.

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, caribill said:

 

One thing different about CCL Corp and many other companies that have gone bankrupt in the past.

 

One family owns about a quarter of all CCL stock and their family fortune is basically tied to the success of the Corporation. I do not expect a CCL Corp bankruptcy to happen.

Many individual cruisers /shareholders are in it for the long haul and the shareholder OBC. Temporary set backs and price dips don't bother them. As long as I continue to cruise, I am not selling my cruise line shares.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, sfaaa said:

Many individual cruisers /shareholders are in it for the long haul and the shareholder OBC. Temporary set backs and price dips don't bother them. As long as I continue to cruise, I am not selling my cruise line shares.  

We will buy 100 shares of CCL if & when they are back cruising  . We will know the timing  by the stock charts. Of course it is worth  owning the stock not only for the  on board credit ;but ,the gains & eventually  the   replacement of the dividend

Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

We will buy 100 shares of CCL if & when they are back cruising  . We will know the timing  by the stock charts. Of course it is worth  owning the stock not only for the  on board credit ;but ,the gains & eventually  the   replacement of the dividend

 

By the time it is obvious the stock will have moved from bargain to overpriced, the money is made by people before it is obvious.   Be fearful when everyone is greedy and greedy when everyone is fearful says a very rich and wise investor, I don't think that wise man has RCCL or CCL in his sights, LOL

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/13/2020 at 1:32 PM, nocl said:

 

 

It probably would have been smarter 

 

LOL 20:20 hindsight but sadly some can't even look in the mirror and see the real reflection, with that to reflect on what happened to draw some conclusion of what could be better won't work in a country where people can't listen, learn, and compromise.    

 

Think of a cruise ship where everyone believes they have a right to reserve the chair on the deck, their freedom and right, what kind of cruise experience will a ship full of people like that be; at the pool, at the lounge, at the theater, at the dining room.   Well that is the way it is in the great USA these days.  

 

have you seen the netflix documentary social dilemma?

https://www.netflix.com/title/81254224

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

LOL 20:20 hindsight but sadly some can't even look in the mirror and see the real reflection, with that to reflect on what happened to draw some conclusion of what could be better won't work in a country where people can't listen, learn, and compromise.    

 

Think of a cruise ship where everyone believes they have a right to reserve the chair on the deck, their freedom and right, what kind of cruise experience will a ship full of people like that be; at the pool, at the lounge, at the theater, at the dining room.   Well that is the way it is in the great USA these days.  

 

have you seen the netflix documentary social dilemma?

https://www.netflix.com/title/81254224

 

This is exactly what will happen on Princess cruise ships and other ships leaving from USA ports......the "you can't make me crowd because it is my right" will be on board and it should be an amazing experience and fun.....

Edited by PrincessLuver
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/14/2020 at 5:17 PM, chipmaster said:

 

By the time it is obvious the stock will have moved from bargain to overpriced, the money is made by people before it is obvious.   Be fearful when everyone is greedy and greedy when everyone is fearful says a very rich and wise investor, I don't think that wise man has RCCL or CCL in his sights, LOL

This is  how I see it . Short cruises = younger generation  ,Long Cruises =older generation  .Thus ,until there is real safety on any cruise ship ,it is highly unlikely that we , the older generation would risk our lives on any cruise ship . How that impacts the cruise lines Top & Bottom lines is a ?  at this point . There is no way I would even consider buying any cruise line stock now ,even though the prices seem to be a bargain .you can also hold a falling knife  .There are far better stocks paying decent dividends that are worth a look & potential investment value .

Link to post
Share on other sites

New from the past about Costa that will make it to "60 Minutes" this Sunday:

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-cruise-passengers-atlanta-airport-60-minutes-2020-10-16/

 

And recent news from another cruise line that has restarted cruising:

 

https://thepointsguy.com/news/french-polynesia-cruise-pandemic/

Link to post
Share on other sites

Ooops. Costa cruise tested positive.

 

They'll tell us whether the 8 infected were part of a bubble, or not. Anyway, the ship continued on.

 

"Eight passengers test positive for COVID-19 on Costa Cruises ship...

 

After the news of the positive tests came and the passengers disembarked, they were retested in facilities in Palermo. "(They) were isolated and immediately disembarked in dedicated onshore facilities in Palermo in agreement with Italian health authorities, per protocol," Frizzell said.

A third test on shore was also positive for all seven, who were asymptomatic."

 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/eight-passengers-test-positive-covid-194123929.html

 

More info here...

 

Only French passengers and just 600 of them.

 

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5666

 

Edited by HappyInVan
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/16/2020 at 2:57 AM, mcrcruiser said:

Thus ,until there is real safety on any cruise ship ,it is highly unlikely that we , the older generation would risk our lives on any cruise ship .

This is true for some of the "older generation," but I certainly would say it's probably not the majority. Is it especially more risky to be on a cruise ship than to be driving somewhere, smoking, eating donuts, harboring a grudge, not exercising?  Everything carries risk; you choose which ones to take.  (Anyone have data on deaths from cruise ship COVID? Not interested in "cases.")

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, WAMarathoner said:

This is true for some of the "older generation," but I certainly would say it's probably not the majority. Is it especially more risky to be on a cruise ship than to be driving somewhere, smoking, eating donuts, harboring a grudge, not exercising?  Everything carries risk; you choose which ones to take.  (Anyone have data on deaths from cruise ship COVID? Not interested in "cases.")

 

 

According to Miami Herald  there have been 111 deaths due to COVID on cruise ships (passengers and crew) and 3908 total reported cases.  Though data from ships outside of US waters is a bit limited. Testing was somewhat limited so certainly quite a few cases were not counted.

Edited by nocl
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/8/2020 at 3:40 AM, mcrcruiser said:

  This covid 19 is not going away with people just wearing masks & social distancing ,the reason is as long as  there are people who  are infected they can spread the  disease quickly & infect many thousands to millions

 

It's not going away, period.  It will, however, likely weaken with time.  "Flatten the curve."  Oh, wait, that was just to get started.  Pshaw.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WAMarathoner said:

It's not going away, period.  It will, however, likely weaken with time.  "Flatten the curve."  Oh, wait, that was just to get started.  Pshaw.

No that was to but time for vaccines and therapeutics to be developed.  Even now those getting infected are over 30% less likely to die from COVID than those infected last May and June due to better treatment protocols.  Secondary impacts such as the long haulers, strokes, heart damage, kidney damage, inflammatory syndrome still with us though.

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, WAMarathoner said:

It's not going away, period.  It will, however, likely weaken with time.  "Flatten the curve."  Oh, wait, that was just to get started.  Pshaw.

 

 

What's the alternative? Allow the disease to run free? That's a seven figure death toll. Likely that some will be people you know.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/the-death-toll-would-be-enormous-fauci-says-of-herd-immunity-to-coronavirus-in-the-us.html

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/17/2020 at 12:46 PM, HappyInVan said:

 

 

What's the alternative? Allow the disease to run free? That's a seven figure death toll. Likely that some will be people you know.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/the-death-toll-would-be-enormous-fauci-says-of-herd-immunity-to-coronavirus-in-the-us.html

 

 

Dr Fauci is accurate  in his analysis  . We must wear masks & perhaps masks & shields to protect ourselves ,especially us older folks ;but ,it is recommended  for every one plus social distancing . If only all generations did this we can flatten & keep the curve very low . However ,to eliminate this virus   like the flu  ,vaccines will be necessary on a regular basis plus those antibody treatments 

Link to post
Share on other sites

From NBCs Meet the Press Sunday: 

 

Michael Osterholm, a renowned infectious disease expert, told NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday that “the next six to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic” and expressed concern that the U.S. lacks a leading voice to guide the public.

 

“Vaccines will not become available in any meaningful way until early to [the] third quarter of next year. And even then, about half of the U.S. population at this point is skeptical of even taking the vaccine,” said Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/14/2020 at 7:19 PM, mcrcruiser said:

We will buy 100 shares of CCL if & when they are back cruising  . We will know the timing  by the stock charts. Of course it is worth  owning the stock not only for the  on board credit ;but ,the gains & eventually  the   replacement of the dividend

You should have bought it when it was at $7.80 (now at $14.26)

Link to post
Share on other sites

You do not have to look at all of the comments and take sides in the discussion.

 

The statistics, and the comparative statistics, speak for themselves as to success or failure.   Covid cases, hospitalizations, deaths per 100K population.  Not to mention the current trajectory.

 

Those numbers speak volumes.   Lots of talk cannot change that.  The numbers are the numbers.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Paula_MacFan said:

 

 

Michael Osterholm, a renowned infectious disease expert, told NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday that “the next six to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic” and expressed concern that the U.S. lacks a leading voice to guide the public.

 

 

It is up to the citizens to do the right thing. COVID is also spiking in Europe, India and other parts of the world, not just US. Blaming it all on leadership is over simplistic.

Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, sfaaa said:

It is up to the citizens to do the right thing. COVID is also spiking in Europe, India and other parts of the world, not just US. Blaming it all on leadership is over simplistic.

 

There are two critical components in the response to a pandemic; the people and the government.

 

Ideally, the people are sensible and do the right thing. For example, in British Columbia the government has only had to enforce restrictions lightly. Covid under control. As of Friday, just 72 currently in hospital, and only 251 dead.

 

In Sweden, the government was willing to let its people be infected. But, the Swedish people were sensible enough to protect themselves. Infection proceeding at a slow pace. Herd immunity not in sight. And, Sweden's covid mortality rate is a disaster compared to its Nordic neighbors.

 

What is a government supposed to do? Education and logistics yes. Provide emergency medical care certainly. But, government must also play the management role for the collective good.

 

Over in BC, residents have reduced social contact (mainly voluntarily) to 47%. And, they (95%) wear masks as recommended by the doctors. That is the sacrifice they have made to save lives and the economy.

 

Any place where the residents are unwilling to reduce in-person social relationships is in trouble. The scary part is that some places have no brakes on the epidemic.

 

Here's an analogy. We're riding a vehicle going downhill. Without brakes, the vehicle will accelerate until it overturns. Passengers may hope that the vehicle reaches the flatland before the accident. But, hope is not a plan.

 

With brakes, we can try to de-accelerate the vehicle. Reaching the flatland in a controlled descent.

 

In my province, the government has prepared to do 20k tests a day during the cold season. At a 1% positivity rate, that allows for 200 confirmations daily. Easy for contact tracing, and maintaining slack in the hospitals.

 

Before we reach 200 cases daily, the government has began tapping the brakes. Already shut down the concert venues, bars not serving alcohol after 10pm etc. I would anticipate that the government will next enforce the mask mandate on transit and indoors.

 

Avoiding a sudden shutdown as in March. The population knows what's coming. It's up to them to tighten discipline and maintain the economy.

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Forum Jump
    • Categories
      • Forum Assistance
      • SPECIAL EVENT: Q&A with RiverCruising.co.uk
      • Q&A: Cruise Insurance with Steve Dasseos of TripInsuranceStore.com
      • New Cruisers
      • Cruise Lines “A – O”
      • Cruise Lines “P – Z”
      • River Cruising
      • ROLL CALLS
      • Digital Photography & Cruise Technology
      • Special Interest Cruising
      • Cruise Discussion Topics
      • UK Cruising
      • Australia & New Zealand Cruisers
      • North American Homeports
      • Ports of Call
      • Cruise Conversations
×
×
  • Create New...