When Will We Feel Safe to Cruise Again

[c-boy]

1 hour ago, darknightsdespiser said:

Anytime! Princess cruise ships are cleanest places I ever go!

and when they restart that will likely remain the case.

[caribill]

1 hour ago, darknightsdespiser said:

Anytime! Princess cruise ships are cleanest places I ever go!

 

And the goal when cruising resules is that you will be less likely to get the virus on a cruise ship than you would be if you stayed in your home town.

[Doubt It]

8 hours ago, caribill said:

 

OK, I admit I am not an expert (or anything close to one) in vaccine testing, but I thought that past vaccine (polio, for example) trials worked as follows:

a) Some people received the vaccine, some received the placebo.

b) Over a period of time, the number of actual cases of disease that occurred were looked at and it was determined how many that developed the disease had the vaccine and how many had the placebo.

c) If the number of people who had the disease and also had the vaccine was appropriately lower than those with the disease and a placebo, the vaccine was deemed effective. For example, to make up numbers, if 1% of those who had the vaccine had the disease but 10% of those with the placebo had the disease, the vaccine might be considered very effective.

 

If I understand you correctly, the corona virus vaccines being tested are not doing this. They are not doing periodic testing of everyone in the trial to determine how many get Covid-19 and how many do not. They are just looking for those who develop obvious symptoms. Anyone who gets the virus and never shows symptoms would not be detected this way and, unlike a number of past diseases that have had vaccines developed, it is possible that many people catch the virus, never show symptoms, but can spread the virus.

 

Is my understanding correct? If so, I do not understand how true effectiveness can be measured as it will not be determined if the vaccine was effective in reducing the cases of people who never show symptoms.

Caribill:

Exactly. So well said.

I question the process and I am no expert whatsoever.

 

Your 1-3) step makes sense and is the same as my knowledge of previous vaccine development for the flu, shingles etc.

I see the process for the Wuhan virus vaccine to be different and rushed.

Further, the dear volunteers are operating in a highly restricted environment that does not expose them to the realities of this virus, which frankly gives me no comfort whatsoever.

 

I am highly skeptical of the vaccine process for the Wuhan virus, unlike my comfort level for other viruses.

[sfaaa]

1 hour ago, caribill said:

 

And the goal when cruising resules is that you will be less likely to get the virus on a cruise ship than you would be if you stayed in your home town.

Good point since everyone on board are already prescreened, likely vaccinated after vaccine becomes available  and subject to rigid health protocols. 

[nocl]

10 hours ago, caribill said:

 

OK, I admit I am not an expert (or anything close to one) in vaccine testing, but I thought that past vaccine (polio, for example) trials worked as follows:

a) Some people received the vaccine, some received the placebo.

b) Over a period of time, the number of actual cases of disease that occurred were looked at and it was determined how many that developed the disease had the vaccine and how many had the placebo.

c) If the number of people who had the disease and also had the vaccine was appropriately lower than those with the disease and a placebo, the vaccine was deemed effective. For example, to make up numbers, if 1% of those who had the vaccine had the disease but 10% of those with the placebo had the disease, the vaccine might be considered very effective.

 

If I understand you correctly, the corona virus vaccines being tested are not doing this. They are not doing periodic testing of everyone in the trial to determine how many get Covid-19 and how many do not. They are just looking for those who develop obvious symptoms. Anyone who gets the virus and never shows symptoms would not be detected this way and, unlike a number of past diseases that have had vaccines developed, it is possible that many people catch the virus, never show symptoms, but can spread the virus.

 

Is my understanding correct? If so, I do not understand how true effectiveness can be measured as it will not be determined if the vaccine was effective in reducing the cases of people who never show symptoms.

One other comment.  Even though symptoms vs infection can be considered to be a lower hurdle, and is not the normal standard.  You do have vaccines for things like shingles that also are based upon symptoms.

 

There is clearly an unmet medical need for which eliminating or reducing the number of cases with symptoms is a clear benefit.  As of this time there is still not an effective therapeutic.  The antibody studies are showing benefit in mild to moderate cases, but were shown to be ineffective in serious hospitalized cases.  That raises an interesting problem for there use, at the time when they are effective you will not know which of the tens of thousands of cases that are occurring every day will progress and if you wait until they progress to serious, it will be too late for them to be effective.  With the amount of antibody drugs measured in the tens and maybe hundreds of thousands of doses their impact will be very limited and use probably reserved only for the highest risk patients, even then many of the doses will be used on patients that would not have progressed.

 

So if the vaccine does reach the end point for efficacy for preventing symptoms, then there will clearly be a benefit.  It will be another effective tool in the tool box for fighting Covid.

[nocl]

2 hours ago, Doubt It said:

Caribill:

Exactly. So well said.

I question the process and I am no expert whatsoever.

 

Your 1-3) step makes sense and is the same as my knowledge of previous vaccine development for the flu, shingles etc.

I see the process for the Wuhan virus vaccine to be different and rushed.

Further, the dear volunteers are operating in a highly restricted environment that does not expose them to the realities of this virus, which frankly gives me no comfort whatsoever.

 

I am highly skeptical of the vaccine process for the Wuhan virus, unlike my comfort level for other viruses.

All participants in clinical trials are informed how to avoid illness.  The restricted environment, which is the same for the entire populace has no impact on the results. The only effect is in the time it takes for the cases to develop.  After all both arms of the trial received exactly the same instructions and are operating in exactly the same environment.

 

One thing to note is that all of the trial participants were informed about CDC recommendations.  The fact that cases are occurring slower than expected, might just show how effective those recommendations are, if everyone would just follow them.

 

If it gives you no comfort than don't take it.  However it also then gives you no benefit if the data shows that it is efficacious.

[caribill]

46 minutes ago, nocl said:

 

 

One thing to note is that all of the trial participants were informed about CDC recommendations.  The fact that cases are occurring slower than expected, might just show how effective those recommendations are, if everyone would just follow them.

 

 

 

Since many (most?) of the new infections have occurred by those not following the CDC recommendations (crowded celebrations, crowded bars, etc.) and also then spreading it to family, it is not surprising that trial participants following the recommendations are slow to have contracted the virus.

[mcrcruiser]

What we do know is that there is a second type wave of covid 19 happening here in the States & Europe  .More & More people are getting infected & people are dying .Yet there is no news  when the physical vaccine will be available  .what I mean "Real News "  ,that we can all trust . 

 

  I never thought I would say this ;but ,I am glad that Carnival corp is not sailing there ships here the rest of this year , There is much too much uncertainties about cures  , The cruise ships still are lots of people in a rather confined area . Regardless of safety protocols going into place ,I would truly hope that any older people with underlying medical conditions or even those past 60 stay away from cruise ships until there is sufficient vaccines & good results in the USA /Canada /Europe 

 

 

[mcrcruiser]

Does any  one have any dates when one or two vaccines will start being available  for  consumption ? If so please post a link .Thanks

[HappyInVan]

21 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

Does any  one have any dates when one or two vaccines will start being available  for  consumption ? If so please post a link .Thanks

 

 

No vaccine dates. It will come when it will come.

 

Still, I feel good. IMHO, we were be cruising from low risk areas by spring! 😊 

[Daniel A]

18 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

Does any  one have any dates when one or two vaccines will start being available  for  consumption ? If so please post a link .Thanks

Nobody will know until the drug companies are in a position to apply for Emergency Use Authorization.  That said, in theory, if and when one or more vaccines get that approval the vaccines should be ready for immediate distribution using a tiered system of who gets which one first, second and third. 

 

My uninformed estimate is that the drug companies will be in a position to APPLY for the authorization sometime around the week of Thanksgiving.  Then it will be a question of how long it will take the Food & Drug Administration to make their evaluation and decision.

 

[mcrcruiser]

3 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

Nobody will know until the drug companies are in a position to apply for Emergency Use Authorization.  That said, in theory, if and when one or more vaccines get that approval the vaccines should be ready for immediate distribution using a tiered system of who gets which one first, second and third. 

 

My uninformed estimate is that the drug companies will be in a position to APPLY for the authorization sometime around the week of Thanksgiving.  Then it will be a question of how long it will take the Food & Drug Administration to make their evaluation and decision.

 

We think that your timing is pretty close . The only fly in the ointment so to speak is will the FDA  approve the vaccines quickly or will they want further testing ? So it appears that we are in accord with each others thinking  .Oh the drama in light of rising covid 19 cases & deaths  here in the US & over in Europe  .Vaccines that work can't come soon enough  to help stem these rises in cases . The other issue is why aren't the antibody meds  readily available ?

[iancal]

There is a huge difference for us between when vaccines are first available, when cruises open up, when CDC approves. and when we feel that it is safe to cruise. 

 

I expect that we will wait six months to cruise or so after a vaccine becomes available to the general population.    That is not to say that we will not travel, just that we will not feel inclined to take a cruise.  These are three different dates to us.  Our life certainly does not revolve around cruising.

 

We have not read anything yet that gives us any confidence that cruising will resume before March, possibly longer.   Just because a vaccine is developed/approved does not mean that it can be distributed to the entire population the next week.  It does not happen that way.

Edited November 4, 2020 by iancal

[voljeep]

28 minutes ago, iancal said:

confidence that cruising will resume before March

realistically , hoping that cruises start back up by 3/1/21 - that's a solid 4 months from now

 

sure it will be on a scaled back version, but that is OK with us on our little cruise mid-April 2021 on the CB

 

now if it was a fly and longer cruise with limited port excursions ... not so much

[Daniel A]

50 minutes ago, iancal said:

We have not read anything yet that gives us any confidence that cruising will resume before March, possibly longer.   Just because a vaccine is developed/approved does not mean that it can be distributed to the entire population the next week.  It does not happen that way.

I don't mean to contradict you, but I see many posts that are negative for resumption soon because the vaccine won't be widely available until sometime this summer.  While it may be the case that the vaccine won't be available to the whole population until later in 2021 cruising can be an option for those groups identified to get the vaccine first.  There should be a large enough population to make a limited resumption.  If the cruise lines are relying on the 'party' boats that will probably take longer but I think those lines that don't put amusement parks on their ships may have a viable market sooner if they're willing to make vaccinations a boarding requirement.

[iancal]

It may be different for us.  We are not very interested in seven day cruises nor are we very interested in cruises from US ports. 

 

We are primarily looking at Europe, Oz-NZ,, and perhaps Asia.  10-21 day range.

[drowelf]

1 hour ago, iancal said:

It may be different for us.  We are not very interested in seven day cruises nor are we very interested in cruises from US ports. 

 

We are primarily looking at Europe, Oz-NZ,, and perhaps Asia.  10-21 day range.

Same for us. As well as having a vaccine available for the passengers that board the ship, you have to have ports that are willing to take said ships and its passengers. I expect that in the near term, vaccination will be a requirement to board a cruise ship. Also even if a port is willing to take the ship for the day, I would be very concerned about the infection rate is said port(s) before I would be willing to take the cruise. Not interested in just cruising to be on the ship, I want interesting places to visit. 

 

As I've posted in the past, we are not planning to cruise until an effective vaccine is widely available and distributed.

Edited November 4, 2020 by drowelf

[iancal]

The last thing we want is be stuck on the MS Covid looking for a port and then trying to get home.

 

We also anticipate that we will have to update our Record of Vaccinations and carry it with us when we travel...cruise or no cruise.

[voljeep]

6 minutes ago, iancal said:

The last thing we want is be stuck on the MS Covid looking for a port and then trying to get home.

 

We also anticipate that we will have to update our Record of Vaccinations and carry it with us when we travel...cruise or no cruise.

easily averted ... simply don't ever cruise again

[MissP22]

4 hours ago, drowelf said:

we are not planning to cruise until an effective vaccine is widely available and distributed.

Same with us....and also many sailings without a single incident. 

 

While we really enjoy cruising doing so with social distancing & having to wear a mask most of the time just doesn't sound like much fun. 

[nocl]

8 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

We think that your timing is pretty close . The only fly in the ointment so to speak is will the FDA  approve the vaccines quickly or will they want further testing ? So it appears that we are in accord with each others thinking  .Oh the drama in light of rising covid 19 cases & deaths  here in the US & over in Europe  .Vaccines that work can't come soon enough  to help stem these rises in cases . The other issue is why aren't the antibody meds  readily available ?

The antibody meds are difficult to produce (grown in living cells).  There is also a fundamental issue with them.  As demonstrated by two different clinical trials they do not provide benefit in serious cases (hospitalized patients).  That means to provide benefit they would have to be given early to mild and moderate patients.  However at that time one does not know who is likely to progress or not.  Wait until progression and it is too late to provide benefit.  So with limited doses (at current infection rate) you have enough to treat about 10 days worth of new infections over the next 6 months. The issue of who gets it to give maximum benefit and have the least wasting of the limited supply.  That most likely means only those with very serious pre existing conditions, at the absolute most risk of Covid, or the wealthiest or most politically connected.

[mcrcruiser]

12 hours ago, Daniel A said:

I don't mean to contradict you, but I see many posts that are negative for resumption soon because the vaccine won't be widely available until sometime this summer.  While it may be the case that the vaccine won't be available to the whole population until later in 2021 cruising can be an option for those groups identified to get the vaccine first.  There should be a large enough population to make a limited resumption.  If the cruise lines are relying on the 'party' boats that will probably take longer but I think those lines that don't put amusement parks on their ships may have a viable market sooner if they're willing to make vaccinations a boarding requirement.

We think you are correct . The summer od 2021 sounds more reasonable . My DW & I will be at the top of the list to receive the vaccine ,if our doctor recommends we do take it . We are both 81 & I am 72 in Dec .We both have underlying medical conditions that makes us very vunerable .this is why I did not think in terms of 2021 cruises & the first is Jan 15 ,2022 on Majestic

[mcrcruiser]

5 hours ago, nocl said:

The antibody meds are difficult to produce (grown in living cells).  There is also a fundamental issue with them.  As demonstrated by two different clinical trials they do not provide benefit in serious cases (hospitalized patients).  That means to provide benefit they would have to be given early to mild and moderate patients.  However at that time one does not know who is likely to progress or not.  Wait until progression and it is too late to provide benefit.  So with limited doses (at current infection rate) you have enough to treat about 10 days worth of new infections over the next 6 months. The issue of who gets it to give maximum benefit and have the least wasting of the limited supply.  That most likely means only those with very serious pre existing conditions, at the absolute most risk of Covid, or the wealthiest or most politically connected.

 So it is so important to wear masks & even shields  over masks  to trying not to get   infected . Ir seems to me people need to take this more serious & wear the masks  to help bring this rising curve down 

[nocl]

4 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

 So it is so important to wear masks & even shields  over masks  to trying not to get   infected . Ir seems to me people need to take this more serious & wear the masks  to help bring this rising curve down 

The interesting thing is that the clinical trials for the vaccines are taking longer than expected because the slower than expected rate of infections, even during a time when infections in the US are increasing rapidly.  Since all participants in the trials are given the CDC recommendations for how to avoid infection, it just might be an indicator that those recommendations work, if everyone would follow them.

[caribill]

12 hours ago, drowelf said:

Also even if a port is willing to take the ship for the day, I would be very concerned about the infection rate is said port(s) before I would be willing to take the cruise. Not interested in just cruising to be on the ship, I want interesting places to visit. 

 

 

Which is why initially only those with ship shore excursions will be allowed to leave the ship in a port. The excursion will have all the participants (including guides and drivers) in a "bubble" to keep the passengers away from direct contact with the local population.